Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

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TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

mikems wrote:We have tax bands above 45% that are entirely missing. We could have them at 50, 55, 60, 65, 70, 75 and 80%. Getting rid of these bands has created great inequality of wealth and it is now so great that it is causing real trouble for our society.

There has never been sensible arguments against these bands, just greed and hatred of society dressed up as dishonest economic argument. We are less equal and have to work harder for less as a result, while our exploiters enjoy huge freedom.

I'd rather see those bands reinstated before we increase the basic rate. They have cut the basic rate and raised indirect taxes. So reintroduce the higher rates, cut indirect taxes, and then see what level of basic rate is needed for public spending.
Actually there are some excellent arguments against taxing more than 50% (although I think people might live with 60% for salaries over 200k).

If you cut indirect taxes and raise income tax, you are taking the elite out of tax. I would for example consider contracting, and given I am relaxed about paying tax I think many others would look at the same option.

You have to remember the very rich have a whole set of strategies to avoid tax, you don't want to repeat the Hollande trick.
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mikems
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by mikems »

TE,

What are these 'excellent' arguments against the higher rates? Not the laughable Laffer curve, surely?

Indirect taxes weigh most heavily on the poor. Cutting them and reintroducing the higher rates is not 'taking the elite out of tax'.

The current situation that allows employers to load all tax responsibility onto employees disguised as 'self-employed' is a problem not a solution. The current setup in its entirety makes it difficult to reestablish sanity in taxation, but not impossible.

I don't know what you mean by the 'Hollande trick'.
mikems
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by mikems »

Surely the argument that higher rates of income tax harm the economy is put to bed by looking at the GDP figures post war.

If you make it easier to avoid higher rate taxes by allowing tax havens and free movement of capital, then society will be undermined.

The ease with which the rich dodge their taxes now is not an argument against stopping them doing it.
ohsocynical
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

SHOCK figures today reveal a 213 per cent rise in the number of prosecutions for hate crime against the disabled.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/551327 ... ise-by-213
I never venture further than the front page of the Express but this caught my eye.
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HindleA
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by HindleA »

http://www.leighday.co.uk/News/2015/Jan ... reme-Court" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


"Bedroom tax challenge to be heard by the Supreme Court"
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citizenJA
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

Afternoon, everyone.
CitizenPMJR & I went out last night to see, Mr Turner, a Mike Leigh film about J.M.W. Turner.
Outstanding.
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citizenJA
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

HindleA wrote:http://www.leighday.co.uk/News/2015/Jan ... reme-Court


"Bedroom tax challenge to be heard by the Supreme Court"
You use few words to convey some of the most consequential information I've ever read, HindleA. Thank you.
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

citizenJA wrote:Afternoon, everyone.
CitizenPMJR & I went out last night to see, Mr Turner, a Mike Leigh film about J.M.W. Turner.
Outstanding.
Thank you for that Citizen. Mr Riots and I are thinking of going to see that this coming week. Good to know it's recommended.
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HindleA
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by HindleA »

@CJA

I don't know when it is expected to be heard,but hopefully a redundant issue in a return to a time when ,in this regard at least,extraordinary lengths are not needed to avoid "discretion" in being disabled and accounting for your necessary needs.
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citizenJA
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

rebeccariots2 wrote:
citizenJA wrote:Afternoon, everyone.
CitizenPMJR & I went out last night to see, Mr Turner, a Mike Leigh film about J.M.W. Turner.
Outstanding.
Thank you for that Citizen. Mr Riots and I are thinking of going to see that this coming week. Good to know it's recommended.
The reviews to the film contain criticism I acknowledge as having some validity. It's essential to pay close attention to the film. It's about two & a half hours long. Every single thing within the film - scene, light, darkness, action, movement, words (sometimes just one, sometimes only a sound), a look, gestures - everything - in the film is deliberate, conveys meaning.

I caught a word my partner missed establishing greater clarity about the relationship between two actors. He didn't understand fully until I told him the word. He was perplexed about a character's situation & the single word in a dialogue revealed it.

The outdoor scenes in particular are gorgeous. Achingly so. A bit ribald once or twice - raw - but justly conveying Turner's character, his relationships.
yahyah
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by yahyah »

How was Spall in his role JA ?
I saw a trailer and although the art direction etc looked wonderful I just couldn't take Spall's acting seriously.
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

We may have already covered this - I was somewhat out of action when the Hinchingbrooke story broke - but did folk notice Circle's explanation for pulling out? They are basically saying that they can't make enough money because of the A&E problems and their inability to discharge patients into social care.

This is the story of this awful government time and again isn't it? Lansley's act set out to deliberately destroy the public NHS, but has created a shambles that can't be run for profit either. The worst of all worlds. The worst of all governments. Unprincipled and incompetent.
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citizenJA
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

HindleA wrote:@CJA

I don't know when it is expected to be heard,but hopefully a redundant issue in a return to a time when ,in this regard at least,extraordinary lengths are not needed to avoid "discretion" in being disabled and accounting for your necessary needs.
Agreed.

The case permitted to go to the Supreme Court looks a slender in, though I'm not a legal expert. The High Court has ruled discrimination against disabled children is present & unjustified. Whatever. I look forward to the whole nasty tax binned in this coming May.
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citizenJA
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

yahyah wrote:How was Spall in his role JA ?
I saw a trailer and although the art direction etc looked wonderful I just couldn't take Spall's acting seriously.
Spall was absolutely brilliant.

I may have been better for not knowing a lot about Turner, the character he portrays.
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by RogerOThornhill »

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:We may have already covered this - I was somewhat out of action when the Hinchingbrooke story broke - but did folk notice Circle's explanation for pulling out? They are basically saying that they can't make enough money because of the A&E problems and their inability to discharge patients into social care.

This is the story of this awful government time and again isn't it? Lansley's act set out to deliberately destroy the public NHS, but has created a shambles that can't be run for profit either. The worst of all worlds. The worst of all governments. Unprincipled and incompetent.
The other bit was this:
Steve Melton, Circle’s chief executive, said in a statement: “Like most hospitals, over the past year, Hinchingbrooke saw unprecedented A&E attendances and not enough care places for healthy patients awaiting discharge.

“At the same time, our funding has been cut. We also believe that inconsistent and conflicting regulatory regimes compound the challenge for acute hospitals in this environment. This combination of factors means we have now reluctantly concluded that, in its existing form, Circle’s involvement in Hinchingbrooke is unsustainable.”
So, when does Lansley apologise?

Too busy tiptoeing off to his new UN post I imagine...

Worst. Health Secretary. Ever.

I might have a look at the warnings that Burnham gave about trust failings in Feb 2010 and see how many were still there as failing in Keogh.
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citizenJA
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

ohsocynical wrote:
SHOCK figures today reveal a 213 per cent rise in the number of prosecutions for hate crime against the disabled.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/551327 ... ise-by-213
I never venture further than the front page of the Express but this caught my eye.
From the Chief Crown Prosecutor (CCP) - 24 October 2014
Conviction rate for hate crime at all-time high

The number of hate crime convictions increased from 10,794 to 11,915 and the hate crime conviction rate also increased from 82.6% to 84.7%

There was an increase in the rate of decisions to charge for disability hate crime from 72.4% to 80%

Disability hate crime can be more difficult to identify than other forms of hate crime, as it often comes in the form of exploitation or crimes committed by those pretending to befriend the victim. We have, and are introducing more, training and guidance for prosecutors to ensure this incorporates the full range of offending.

We want to improve the experience of victims of disability hate crime, so we have been conducting detailed research to ensure both that victims' experiences are improved, and that prosecutors have all the resources they need to recognise, and prosecute, cases of disability hate crime.

http://www.cps.gov.uk/news/latest_news/ ... index.html
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citizenJA
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
gilsey wrote:
refitman wrote: Andrew Sparrow is covering it: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blo ... -live-blog" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I've read it. I find it too depressing for words. I don't want to hear Ed rule out income tax rises, and say he'll consider regional benefit caps.
He stated, categorically, that the 50p rate would be reinstated, how is that ruling out an income tax rise? Is Sparow editorialising again?
Of course.
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citizenJA
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
gilsey wrote:
TheGrimSqueaker wrote: He stated, categorically, that the 50p rate would be reinstated, how is that ruling out an income tax rise? Is Sparow editorialising again?
Beg your pardon, I was taking the 50p rate for granted.

It was this, I should make it clear that in no way do I approve of any specific proposal put forward by that tosser Field.
Q: Frank Field last week suggested taking the NHS out of politics and putting up national insurance to pay for improving it. Do you support that?

Miliband says that would be a tax rise for ordinary people. He does not support that.
In view of the ConDems erosion of the tax base by increasing the personal allowance, there's a very good economic case for 1p on the basic rate and 2p on the higher rate. IMO.
Field didn't say an extra penny on income tax but talked about a rise in NI. I am rather dubious about putting up NI.

I think that it is a given Labour will raise more tax than the Tories, but if you remember 92 there is no way they are going to say that.

There are also hard questions to be asked as to how you raise tax. I am increasingly convinced that the old mantra that Income Tax is fairest is no longer true.

Typically I pay more than the median wage in tax every year, yet I work with people earning double my salary and paying a fraction of my tax. Now I have no issue with contractors being able to offset certain things against tax, but I think scams where they create a business and pay a dividend needs to stop. You might be shocked at just how much tax these sorts of changes will raise.

There is an underlying assumption in Labours plans that middle class tax evasion will end, and that the elite will be hammered by taxing their assets (they don't earn money). You don't announce these sorts of plans up front.

In this environment Ed is clearly right to rule out something as simplistic as raising NI or income tax. I also think the line on the benefits cap is an electoral necessity. If you combine rules on rent control and low cost public housing with a regional reduction it is likely to result in zero impact nationally and will improve the situation in London.

One area where Labour should step up to the plate is disability, the sums of money are not great and promising to fix the system in favour of the claimants would be a good moral line to draw. Hard for the Tories to launch an attack on labour as well.
Outstanding post. I wish I wrote it. But so what? You did, it's communicated that's all that matters.
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citizenJA
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

oh dear...
“I do like you,” said Clegg’s lost voter. “We’ve been to hear you talk and we really appreciate having a national politician taking the time to come local.”

Clegg spluttered good naturedly: “Then the least I deserve is a cross on your ballot paper!”

The conversation ended with Clegg noting that both he and his interlocutor were wearing North Face fleeces.

“Look at that, we’re both wearing North Face and still you won’t vote for me. What does it take?”
You needed to know the answer to that question at least five years prior to this time, Mr. Clegg, goodbye.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... l-election
letsskiptotheleft
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by letsskiptotheleft »

Nice little piece on Clegg and the Sheffield Hallam seat, Clegg campaigning this early in shows he's not taking anything for granted, nor should he, will have to contribute to Coppard's fund.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... CMP=twt_gu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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citizenJA
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

Oh, choice article this -
...the Crookes and Eccleshall wards, where Clegg’s name was greeted last week with responses ranging from “tosser” (a locksmith on Crookes Road), and “Cameron’s pet” (a taekwondo instructor from Crosspool who said he was switching from the Lib Dems to Ukip in May), to “lying bastard” (barman, a Lib Dem to Labour defector, at the Ball pub in Crookes) and “unprincipled, power-grabbing charlatan” (owner of Books on the Park at Hunter’s Bar).

The only South Yorkshire seat that is not a Labour stronghold, Sheffield Hallam is often described as the most affluent constituency outside of the south-east.
PaulfromYorkshire
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by PaulfromYorkshire »

RogerOThornhill wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:We may have already covered this - I was somewhat out of action when the Hinchingbrooke story broke - but did folk notice Circle's explanation for pulling out? They are basically saying that they can't make enough money because of the A&E problems and their inability to discharge patients into social care.

This is the story of this awful government time and again isn't it? Lansley's act set out to deliberately destroy the public NHS, but has created a shambles that can't be run for profit either. The worst of all worlds. The worst of all governments. Unprincipled and incompetent.
The other bit was this:
Steve Melton, Circle’s chief executive, said in a statement: “Like most hospitals, over the past year, Hinchingbrooke saw unprecedented A&E attendances and not enough care places for healthy patients awaiting discharge.

“At the same time, our funding has been cut. We also believe that inconsistent and conflicting regulatory regimes compound the challenge for acute hospitals in this environment. This combination of factors means we have now reluctantly concluded that, in its existing form, Circle’s involvement in Hinchingbrooke is unsustainable.”
So, when does Lansley apologise?

Too busy tiptoeing off to his new UN post I imagine...

Worst. Health Secretary. Ever.

I might have a look at the warnings that Burnham gave about trust failings in Feb 2010 and see how many were still there as failing in Keogh.
I note the Labour candidate in Huntingdon is a doctor at Hinchingbrooke. May well be worth corresponding with him.

http://www.labour.org.uk/people/detail/nik-johnson" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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citizenJA
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

letsskiptotheleft wrote:Nice little piece on Clegg and the Sheffield Hallam seat, Clegg campaigning this early in shows he's not taking anything for granted, nor should he, will have to contribute to Coppard's fund.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... CMP=twt_gu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Hurrah! Yes, we both found it! Helen Pidd, northern editor of the G wrote it. She's a nice way with words; marvellous form, funnier than hell.
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft · 4h 4 hours ago
CORRECTION: The first Ashcroft National Poll of 2015 will be released tomorrow (Monday) at 4pm with commentary on @ConHome
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gilsey
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by gilsey »

TechnicalEphemera wrote: Field didn't say an extra penny on income tax but talked about a rise in NI. I am rather dubious about putting up NI.

I think that it is a given Labour will raise more tax than the Tories, but if you remember 92 there is no way they are going to say that.

There are also hard questions to be asked as to how you raise tax. I am increasingly convinced that the old mantra that Income Tax is fairest is no longer true.

Typically I pay more than the median wage in tax every year, yet I work with people earning double my salary and paying a fraction of my tax. Now I have no issue with contractors being able to offset certain things against tax, but I think scams where they create a business and pay a dividend needs to stop. You might be shocked at just how much tax these sorts of changes will raise.

There is an underlying assumption in Labours plans that middle class tax evasion will end, and that the elite will be hammered by taxing their assets (they don't earn money). You don't announce these sorts of plans up front.

In this environment Ed is clearly right to rule out something as simplistic as raising NI or income tax. I also think the line on the benefits cap is an electoral necessity. If you combine rules on rent control and low cost public housing with a regional reduction it is likely to result in zero impact nationally and will improve the situation in London.

One area where Labour should step up to the plate is disability, the sums of money are not great and promising to fix the system in favour of the claimants would be a good moral line to draw. Hard for the Tories to launch an attack on labour as well.
Miliband said he wouldn't support a tax rise for ordinary people. The question may have been raised in the context of NI, but the answer was clear.

I wouldn't be shocked by how much tax would be raised if action was taken against personal service limited companies. I was shocked when I discovered recently that a close friend was using this very scheme.

But any changes like this, closing of loopholes, wealth taxes, anti-evasion measures will take time. The NHS, and some other things eg legal aid, need funds now. As for
I also think the line on the benefits cap is an electoral necessity. If you combine rules on rent control and low cost public housing with a regional reduction it is likely to result in zero impact nationally and will improve the situation in London.
The fact that it might be an electoral necessity is what makes it so depressing. What a waste of administrative time and effort.

For the avoidance of doubt, I agree entirely with ephie's judgement on the WCA.
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ErnstRemarx
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by ErnstRemarx »

rebeccariots2 wrote:
Labour North ‏@LabourNorth 2h2 hours ago
Tens of thousands of homes across the North were already waiting to downsize before the Bedroom Tax came into force http://mirr.im/14HZgGP" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
New figures have sparked fury from MPs who say the government knew a chronic shortage of housing would leave families unfairly losing money
Tens of thousands of people across the North were already waiting to downsize before the bedroom tax came into force, The Sunday Sun can reveal.
Almost 40,000 households across the North of England were on the waiting list for one-bedroom social homes just as the so-called Bedroom Tax came into force - half the total number of households on the list.
It compares with just 22% of households on the waiting list who were hoping for a social home with more than four bedrooms.
I asked precisely the same questions - do we have sufficient housing stock in the borough for tenants to downsize should they wish to? - at public meetings prior to the tax's introduction. Predictably the answer was 'no'. I asked by how much we'd fall short; the answer was 'rather a long way short'. I questioned this in a township forum meeting (councillors, police, council officers, members of the public), and given that the area covered is largely Tory, many of the public there looked a bit shocked at the replies. Tory councillors, of course, were gung ho for it.
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citizenJA
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

Huntingdonshire has been my family home for almost 10 years, and as well as my place of work, it is also the focus of my day to day life. I believe passionately in the idea of public service. As a local children’s doctor at Hinchingbrooke hospital, I am privileged to have a job which places me right at the heart of the local community, allowing me to meet, help and support people from all walks of life.

In District and Council elections I felt motivated to stand as a Labour party candidate and have been able to engage with the electorate and raise the profile of the local party. Over the years, whilst I have been campaigning alongside party colleagues, the local Labour party has witnessed real success in increasing the share of the Labour vote.

Feeling empowered and inspired by these gains, I now find myself with the tricky but enjoyable task of balancing time between my family, my NHS work commitments and increased campaigning with the local party.

- Nik Johnson
Labour Candidate for Huntingdon
Nik Johnson's career path, documented local political involvement & standing as Labour party candidate for Huntingdon, his dedication to public service ring true but I know little other than what I've read about him briefly.

Someone got a number for him? He sounds like an interesting person to talk with.
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TheGrimSqueaker
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by TheGrimSqueaker »

gilsey wrote:For the avoidance of doubt, I agree entirely with ephie's judgement on the WCA.
For the avoidance of doubt, so do I. In fact I'd be astonished if anybody here didn't.
COWER BRIEF MORTALS. HO. HO. HO.
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citizenJA
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

ErnstRemarx wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:
Labour North ‏@LabourNorth 2h2 hours ago
Tens of thousands of homes across the North were already waiting to downsize before the Bedroom Tax came into force http://mirr.im/14HZgGP" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
New figures have sparked fury from MPs who say the government knew a chronic shortage of housing would leave families unfairly losing money
Tens of thousands of people across the North were already waiting to downsize before the bedroom tax came into force, The Sunday Sun can reveal.
Almost 40,000 households across the North of England were on the waiting list for one-bedroom social homes just as the so-called Bedroom Tax came into force - half the total number of households on the list.
It compares with just 22% of households on the waiting list who were hoping for a social home with more than four bedrooms.
I asked precisely the same questions - do we have sufficient housing stock in the borough for tenants to downsize should they wish to? - at public meetings prior to the tax's introduction. Predictably the answer was 'no'. I asked by how much we'd fall short; the answer was 'rather a long way short'. I questioned this in a township forum meeting (councillors, police, council officers, members of the public), and given that the area covered is largely Tory, many of the public there looked a bit shocked at the replies. Tory councillors, of course, were gung ho for it.
Let those Tory councillors pay moving & associated rental costs, let the Tory councillors find appropriate, affordable & safe, public sector housing for those displaced by the application of the Bedroom Tax. Or let them find room for them all in their own homes on their properties. Live the consequences of the policies you enact you Tory bastards.
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

Taxi boss who supported Better Together reveals his anger after SNP councillor calls for cab boycott
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/polit ... er-4958199

GRANGE Radio Cabs owner Gordon Alexander says they've lost about 50 hires a day since David Alexander, ex-leader of Falkirk Council, urged people not to use his firm.

David Alexander – a former leader of Falkirk Council – wrote in a Facebook message that Grange Radio Cabs were “owned by a unionist who had all his cars running for Better Together”.

He added that SNP supporters “may want to remember this if they are looking for a cab”.

Grange owner Gordon Alexander, who is not related to the councillor, says his firm have lost about 50 hires a day following the Facebook message in December.

Gordon appeared in a Better Together leaflet but said his business partner Derek Martin was an SNP supporter. He added: “Derek is a staunch SNP man and was totally disgusted by the Facebook post. We have lost a significant amount of work.

“I helped the No campaign but it is totally false that we had drivers running for Better Together.

“I don’t know why he wrote this. I’ve never seen the man in my life.”
Sounds to me like he may have grounds for some kind of legal action if it wasn't true and has caused his business damage. :?:
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citizenJA
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

@Gilsney
I wouldn't be shocked by how much tax would be raised if action was taken against personal service limited companies. I was shocked when I discovered recently that a close friend was using this very scheme.
I often don't know how to reconcile my love of some friends & family with discovery of their use of schemes you've described. I understand we are all constrained in some ways insurmountable to alter on our own but then our tasks must include working to alter exploitive arrangements redressing social & economic inequities. That kind of change is huge, it'll require more than just competence. I'm not pessimistic. It can be done.
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

GENERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 46: NOTTINGHAMSHIRE
http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2015/01/1 ... um=twitter
The one that letsskip has already posted - which has him predicting Anna Soubry to lose Broxtowe to Labour.

GENERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 47: LINCOLNSHIRE
http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2015/01/1 ... um=twitter
Boston * Skegness - Sitting MP: Mark Simmonds (Con) Prediction: UKIP gain
Lincoln - Sitting MP: Karl McCartney (Con) Prediction: Labour gain

GENERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 48: SOUTH YORKSHIRE
http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2015/01/1 ... um=twitter
Sheffield Hallam
Sitting MP: Nick Clegg (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
This used to be a Tory seat, but it would take a political earthquake for them to take it off Nick Clegg. Interestingly the Labour vote has started to rise, but not enough to cause the LibDems to panic. Yet. If the LibDems are obliterated, then Clegg will probably be obliterated too, but if they retain around half their seats, this ought to be one of them. Or will there be a Clegg effect, which means the LibDems will fare worse here than elsewhere.

GENERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 49: WEST YORKSHIRE
http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2015/01/1 ... um=twitter
He's predicting 4 Labour gains here - 3 from Conservatives, 1 from Lib Dems. Respect keeping their Bradford seat.
Bradford East - Sitting MP: David Ward (LibDem) Prediction: Labour gain
Dewsbury - Sitting MP: Simon Reevell (Con) Prediction: Labour gain
Keighley - Sitting MP: Kris Hopkins (Con) Prediction: Labour gain
Pudsey - Sitting MP: Stuart Andrew (Con) Prediction: Narrow Labour gain
Working on the wild side.
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Sadly Philip Davies to survive, and he's probably right.
letsskiptotheleft
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by letsskiptotheleft »

I'd like Paul to give us his opinion of Colne Valley.

Sure he will oblige..
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by giselle97 »

citizenJA wrote:
Huntingdonshire has been my family home for almost 10 years, and as well as my place of work, it is also the focus of my day to day life. I believe passionately in the idea of public service. As a local children’s doctor at Hinchingbrooke hospital, I am privileged to have a job which places me right at the heart of the local community, allowing me to meet, help and support people from all walks of life.

In District and Council elections I felt motivated to stand as a Labour party candidate and have been able to engage with the electorate and raise the profile of the local party. Over the years, whilst I have been campaigning alongside party colleagues, the local Labour party has witnessed real success in increasing the share of the Labour vote.

Feeling empowered and inspired by these gains, I now find myself with the tricky but enjoyable task of balancing time between my family, my NHS work commitments and increased campaigning with the local party.

- Nik Johnson
Labour Candidate for Huntingdon
Nik Johnson's career path, documented local political involvement & standing as Labour party candidate for Huntingdon, his dedication to public service ring true but I know little other than what I've read about him briefly.

Someone got a number for him? He sounds like an interesting person to talk with.
================
09/01/2015

Personal statement following the announcement that Circle Health Partnership will be leaving Hinchingbrooke Hospital NHS Trust



I am very proud to have worked as a Consultant Paediatrician for almost 9 years in Children’s Services at Hinchingbrooke Hospital. Children’s services is managed by a different NHS Trust (Cambridge Community Services NHS Trust) but it is important to recognise that these two organisations have close, inter dependant working relationships.

My thoughts are with all my hospital colleagues who will be trying to make sense of today’s announcements.

The patients who use Hinchingbrooke on a day to day basis will be understandably worried about the future of the hospital. The local population and staff need urgent reassurance and a robust plan to ensure the continuity of the services.

In the next few months the issue of securing the long term future of Hinchingbrooke Hospital will form a huge part of my campaign whilst standing as the Labour Party Candidate for the Huntingdon constituency.

In the meantime, as a children’s doctor working at the hospital I will continue doing my day to day job whilst working alongside all colleagues in all departments to deliver high quality care to all our patients- young and old - and work tirelessly with all relevant parties to secure a caring and healthy future for the local population.



Dr Nik Johnson

Children’s Doctor, Hinchingbrooke Hospital

Labour Parliamentary Candidate for Huntingdon in the General Election, May 2015


https://www.facebook.com/pages/Dr-Nik/423496584402119" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://twitter.com/CambridgeMagpie" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

================

P.S. Happy New Year everyone.
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Willow904
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by Willow904 »

rebeccariots2 wrote:
GENERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 46: NOTTINGHAMSHIRE
http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2015/01/1 ... um=twitter
The one that letsskip has already posted - which has him predicting Anna Soubry to lose Broxtowe to Labour.

GENERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 47: LINCOLNSHIRE
http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2015/01/1 ... um=twitter
Boston * Skegness - Sitting MP: Mark Simmonds (Con) Prediction: UKIP gain
Lincoln - Sitting MP: Karl McCartney (Con) Prediction: Labour gain

GENERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 48: SOUTH YORKSHIRE
http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2015/01/1 ... um=twitter
Sheffield Hallam
Sitting MP: Nick Clegg (LibDem)
Prediction: LibDem hold
This used to be a Tory seat, but it would take a political earthquake for them to take it off Nick Clegg. Interestingly the Labour vote has started to rise, but not enough to cause the LibDems to panic. Yet. If the LibDems are obliterated, then Clegg will probably be obliterated too, but if they retain around half their seats, this ought to be one of them. Or will there be a Clegg effect, which means the LibDems will fare worse here than elsewhere.

GENERAL ELECTION PREDICTIONS 49: WEST YORKSHIRE
http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2015/01/1 ... um=twitter
He's predicting 4 Labour gains here - 3 from Conservatives, 1 from Lib Dems. Respect keeping their Bradford seat.
Bradford East - Sitting MP: David Ward (LibDem) Prediction: Labour gain
Dewsbury - Sitting MP: Simon Reevell (Con) Prediction: Labour gain
Keighley - Sitting MP: Kris Hopkins (Con) Prediction: Labour gain
Pudsey - Sitting MP: Stuart Andrew (Con) Prediction: Narrow Labour gain
Excellent! How many Con gains so far? I think I've seen 1, maybe?

Edited to add: I mean Con gains from Labour. There'll be plenty off the Libdems, of course!
Last edited by Willow904 on Sun 11 Jan, 2015 5:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by giselle97 »

By the way, a friend told me that Nik was interviewed on local TV about the Circle issue and then so was Mr Big Jangolly or whatever the Tory mouthpiece is called (who lives literally 400 odd yards from my friend) and MrBimg Jangolly pooh poohed everything that Nik said - Nik, of course, being on the ground and at the hospital wouldn't know anything worth knowing, would he. Where is the wanker's yellow thingey?!?¬
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

mikems wrote:Surely the argument that higher rates of income tax harm the economy is put to bed by looking at the GDP figures post war.

If you make it easier to avoid higher rate taxes by allowing tax havens and free movement of capital, then society will be undermined.

The ease with which the rich dodge their taxes now is not an argument against stopping them doing it.
But capital was much less mobile, and in any case, most of the big economies were doing those very high rates.



It doesn't mean you can go unilaterally go back to eg 83% top rate (1979). And I think a fair few people do now think they did hit "enterprise", for want of a better word- Robert Skidlelsky says that in his introduction to Keynes.

Even Northern Irish Sinn Fein are sure that having a higher Corporate Tax rate is unsustainable with the Republic next door.

I haven't read Picketty but I gather he makes his high top rates international.

I see the biggest problem has been governments serving up tax cuts for what Miliband calls "ordinary people". Sure they raise some other taxes as well, but income tax and CT has been cut below where it should be. Clegg's ludicrous tax policy, rightly called unaffordable by Cameron in the debates, has made it even worse. Osborne's now started to politicize petrol duty, which used to be something that was good for raising money.

I think the key events were the 1993 Budget and the absolute bath that that Tories took afterwards. Sure, they had made a lot about not raising taxes in 1992, but reading the chapter on this in Norman Lamont's autobiography, he comes across as adult by today's standards- broad based tax rises, kicking in as the economy grew. Since then, and the way Labour started to compete with the Tories on lower taxes, nobody much has dared to go there.
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

giselle97 wrote:By the way, a friend told me that Nik was interviewed on local TV about the Circle issue and then so was Mr Big Jangolly or whatever the Tory mouthpiece is called (who lives literally 400 odd yards from my friend) and MrBimg Jangolly pooh poohed everything that Nik said - Nik, of course, being on the ground and at the hospital wouldn't know anything worth knowing, would he. Where is the wanker's yellow thingey?!?¬
Hello, Giselle.

Mr Jolly has also been spreading his stardust on schools, via a less than stellar academy chain.
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

giselle97 wrote:By the way, a friend told me that Nik was interviewed on local TV about the Circle issue and then so was Mr Big Jangolly or whatever the Tory mouthpiece is called (who lives literally 400 odd yards from my friend) and MrBimg Jangolly pooh poohed everything that Nik said - Nik, of course, being on the ground and at the hospital wouldn't know anything worth knowing, would he. Where is the wanker's yellow thingey?!?¬
Its here :toss:

;)
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
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citizenJA
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

Good posts here, everyone, thank you. I learn new things all the time.
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

letsskiptotheleft wrote:I'd like Paul to give us his opinion of Colne Valley.

Sure he will oblige..
Loads of Liberal votes there- Labour start from third.
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by giselle97 »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
giselle97 wrote:By the way, a friend told me that Nik was interviewed on local TV about the Circle issue and then so was Mr Big Jangolly or whatever the Tory mouthpiece is called (who lives literally 400 odd yards from my friend) and MrBimg Jangolly pooh poohed everything that Nik said - Nik, of course, being on the ground and at the hospital wouldn't know anything worth knowing, would he. Where is the wanker's yellow thingey?!?¬
Its here :toss:

;)
Thank you Anatoly. I'm struggling with my new laptop/notepad or whatever it is now called and I couldn't move to the bits and pieces that let us do "fancy things". ;)
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by giselle97 »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
giselle97 wrote:By the way, a friend told me that Nik was interviewed on local TV about the Circle issue and then so was Mr Big Jangolly or whatever the Tory mouthpiece is called (who lives literally 400 odd yards from my friend) and MrBimg Jangolly pooh poohed everything that Nik said - Nik, of course, being on the ground and at the hospital wouldn't know anything worth knowing, would he. Where is the wanker's yellow thingey?!?¬
Hello, Giselle.

Mr Jolly has also been spreading his stardust on schools, via a less than stellar academy chain.
Hello there. I know - Mr JinglyJongly is an affront to being a good neighbour. My friend lives in Alconbury, in an area which isn't Tory - there's not much of it left. She joined the Labour Party because of Mr JanglleAlongJongles.
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

I wouldn't be shocked by how much tax would be raised if action was taken against personal service limited companies. I was shocked when I discovered recently that a close friend was using this very scheme.
There's nothing to be ashamed about with them.

IIRC, they were all but promoted as the future, being very common in IT.
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Funny how Labour are so strong in Nottinghamshire. Bassetlaw is a large constituency, and Sherwood quite large.

Are the Labour voters all in the towns, or are there some lefty countryfolk out there. I only thought you got those in County Durham in England. And Stroud, obviously.
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by giselle97 »

I've caught up ... nearly. The other day TGS put up a comment about Circle and Hinchbringbooke which was well complimented.

I knew some of the history through following John Lister on Twitter. This was an article I'd bookmarked to put up here when I read TGS's comment.

The first privatised NHS hospital - success or smoke and mirrors?
John Lister 26 September 2014


https://www.opendemocracy.net/ournhs/jo ... nd-mirrors
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TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

mikems wrote:Surely the argument that higher rates of income tax harm the economy is put to bed by looking at the GDP figures post war.

If you make it easier to avoid higher rate taxes by allowing tax havens and free movement of capital, then society will be undermined.

The ease with which the rich dodge their taxes now is not an argument against stopping them doing it.
Firstly you can't really look at post war GDP figures to form a strategy for today. The world, and the UK's place in it are completely different today. We used to export stuff to the empire, now we import it from China.

To me once the state starts taking more than 50% of a pay rise a line has probably been crossed. It is true in the past we had very high rates of tax, but I am not sure there is any appetite amongst the population to go back to those days. I knew the 92 election was lost by John Smiths budget when I was canvassing relatively poor people objecting to tax rises (they never had any chance of being hit, but aspiration is a tricky thing). Let's not replay 92, not least because their are better options.

Currently we have an odd situation where taxation falls increasingly on a narrow section of society, and that does not include the rich. You cannot resolve this by income tax, you need new tax strategies to make the wealthy pay their share. When you talk about inequality, it isn't the top 5% or probably even the top 3% that have the money, it is the top 2% the majority held by the top 1%. This inequality is an issue because this group of people aren't doing anything productive with it.

So in this environment the priority is to increase the tax take and reduce the state subsidy required by low wages. Raising income tax will do nothing for the latter and is likely (after a point) to return disappointing results for the former. Hollande has achieved very little with his super tax, freedom of movement is an issue.

The challenge is to raise taxes against oligarchs, the aristocracy and the citizens of the world(TM). The answer being in part the mansion tax, but also taxes on unoccupied property and the closing down of corporate and private tax loopholes. The contractor case being an example, you still need contractors and they still need to be able to offset costs against tax, but income must be booked as income and the money placed in "The business" limited. Some of Osbornes pension tax scams need shutting down as well. Limiting tax relief to say 30% of income or 50K (higher figure) would also be an idea; massively tightening up on capital gains tax another must.

Having done that then some thought can be applied to income tax, but my gut feeling is you won't need to. VAT is only partially regressive, and the EU stops is abolishing it anyway. If Labour ever gets far enough to consider tax cuts they could look at reducing VAT rates on non elective items (like car repairs).
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

I knew the 92 election was lost by John Smiths budget when I was canvassing relatively poor people objecting to tax rises (they never had any chance of being hit, but aspiration is a tricky thing
I wouldn't make too much of that point- Labour probably won enough of those votes, and there are always working class Conservatives.

Alwyn Turner made the point that where Labour did very badly, the South and South East, the figure where tax rises kicked in wasn't all that much above what lots of swing voters were earning already. So it wasn't "aspiration" in terms of "one day I'll make it", it was a promotion at work away, much closer to home.

Put the figure up a bit, and it might have swung a few seats. But I agree with the general point- income tax rises that don't start very high up are electorally difficult.
Last edited by Tubby Isaacs on Sun 11 Jan, 2015 5:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Saturday 10th & Sunday 11th January 2015

Post by gilsey »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
I wouldn't be shocked by how much tax would be raised if action was taken against personal service limited companies. I was shocked when I discovered recently that a close friend was using this very scheme.
There's nothing to be ashamed about with them.

IIRC, they were all but promoted as the future, being very common in IT.
Paying your husband dividends from your company to avoid higher rate tax is, imo, unbecoming to a couple who met at the local Labour party office, as activists.
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