Monday 12th January 2015

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rebeccariots2
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

Robin Brant @robindbrant · 40m 40 minutes ago
BBC reports that 3 lab mps are suing @ukip mep after she said they 'knew many of the details of what was happening' in rotherham child abuse

Robin Brant @robindbrant · 40m 40 minutes ago
rotherham MPs Sarah Champion, John Healey and Kevin Barron are to sue UKIP MEP Jane Collins for libel and slander after conf speech claims
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ErnstRemarx
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by ErnstRemarx »

citizenJA wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:
citizenJA wrote:So it is that bad.

People need to know dropping off the electoral register will lead to their not getting back on it - they may kiss their right to vote goodbye.
http://www.adviceguide.org.uk/england/ ... urn false;

I got a headache attempting to read through all that. Jesus. Life is so damned hard sometimes.
Remembering how many people wandered in sans polling card, [although you don't need it] and generally didn't have much of a clue how it all works, I fear that there will be a lot of people thinking they're still eligible to vote when they've failed to register.
Then the way is clear; I'll have to ask & explain to everyone who'll listen in my area whether or not they know they're registered to vote. Tactful, discrete, yet effective.
Ask your local council what they're doing to ensure that everyone's signed up to vote. I'm sure they'll be happy to tell you. Write to your local paper, and explain in a letter (for publication) what the issue is, and how people may be disenfranchised by the change in procedure - if you wish to stick the boot into the Tories while you're at it, so much the better...
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

JaneCollinsUkip_Speech Extract.jpg
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Robin Brant @robindbrant · 22m 22 minutes ago
This was the key part of @JaneCollinsMEP speech to conf as published
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 4m 4 minutes ago
If you were about to bet on LAB following Populus 5% lead poll HOLD ONTO YOUR MONEY. @LordAshcroft has blues 6% ahead

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2m 2 minutes ago
Fieldwork for both @LordAshcroft & Populus polls took place during exactly the same time period - Jan 9-11th.

Bet we know which of these polls is going to spark most attention.
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citizenJA
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

The first Ashcroft National Poll of 2015 has produced an unexpected result. The Conservatives lead Labour by six points, by 34 per cent to 28 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 8 per cent, UKIP down three points at 16 per cent, the Greens up three points at 8 per cent and the SNP down one point at 4 per cent.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platfor ... -2015.html
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citizenJA
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

rebeccariots2 wrote:
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 4m 4 minutes ago
If you were about to bet on LAB following Populus 5% lead poll HOLD ONTO YOUR MONEY. @LordAshcroft has blues 6% ahead

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2m 2 minutes ago
Fieldwork for both @LordAshcroft & Populus polls took place during exactly the same time period - Jan 9-11th.

Bet we know which of these polls is going to spark most attention.
I'd like to know the meaning of these discrepancies.
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

I'm glad the Labour MPs are going to sue. It's too terrible an accusation to be allowed to go unchallenged.
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by StephenDolan »

28%? less than in 2010? :rofl:
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

StephenDolan wrote:28%? less than in 2010? :rofl:
Does that mean you don't trust the Ashcroft result by any chance?
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citizenJA
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

ErnstRemarx wrote:
citizenJA wrote:
ohsocynical wrote: Remembering how many people wandered in sans polling card, [although you don't need it] and generally didn't have much of a clue how it all works, I fear that there will be a lot of people thinking they're still eligible to vote when they've failed to register.
Then the way is clear; I'll have to ask & explain to everyone who'll listen in my area whether or not they know they're registered to vote. Tactful, discrete, yet effective.
Ask your local council what they're doing to ensure that everyone's signed up to vote. I'm sure they'll be happy to tell you. Write to your local paper, and explain in a letter (for publication) what the issue is, and how people may be disenfranchised by the change in procedure - if you wish to stick the boot into the Tories while you're at it, so much the better...
Thank you, ErnstRemarx.

Please excuse my profanity used here, everyone. Name-calling isn't good to do. I apologise. Don't expunge the comment for my sake, let it be if it's okay to do so.
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by StephenDolan »

rebeccariots2 wrote:
StephenDolan wrote:28%? less than in 2010? :rofl:
Does that mean you don't trust the Ashcroft result by any chance?
Id be interested to hear the Devils advocate argument as to why Miliband 2015 would end up with less than Brown 2010.

If I'm reading it correctly, Table 3 says that the poll results are based upon a VI of 539 (515 when weighted). Con 175, Lab 145.
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

George Eaton @georgeeaton · 4m 4 minutes ago
Tory MPs so far obeying Lynton Crosby's edict not to tweet about positive polls (as undermines "only one poll counts" message).
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

StephenDolan wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:
StephenDolan wrote:28%? less than in 2010? :rofl:
Does that mean you don't trust the Ashcroft result by any chance?
Id be interested to hear the Devils advocate argument as to why Miliband 2015 would end up with less than Brown 2010.

If I'm reading it correctly, Table 3 says that the poll results are based upon a VI of 539 (515 when weighted). Con 175, Lab 145.
Patrick Wintour ‏@patrickwintour 17 mins17 minutes ago
@realcreativesg l 100 % don't think @LordAshcroft is fiddling his figs. But if I him I would worry about erratic results.
0 replies . 1 retweet 0 favourites
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by yahyah »

'Ex-UKIP man and marine Ian Couch in pig's head insult to Cambridge mosque'
http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/Ex-UKIP ... z3Ocyg1nv7" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

His excuse to the court, that he was 'tired & emotional'.
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TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

StephenDolan wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:
StephenDolan wrote:28%? less than in 2010? :rofl:
Does that mean you don't trust the Ashcroft result by any chance?
Id be interested to hear the Devils advocate argument as to why Miliband 2015 would end up with less than Brown 2010.

If I'm reading it correctly, Table 3 says that the poll results are based upon a VI of 539 (515 when weighted). Con 175, Lab 145.
If he has a VI of 539 the poll is hopeless.

That is way way too small a sample.
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ephemerid
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by ephemerid »

There is a very worrying post on the DPAC site today about a speech given by Kate Green last October to SERTUC.

It's here - dpac.uk.net/2015/01/alarm-bells-are-ringing-answers-please-kate-green/

The article below the video clip explains the concern better than I can - but I would also point out that the ideas she is putting forward assumes that the Work programme will not only continue but all ESA claimants are likely to be on it.

I am not happy. I hope she responds to the requests DPAC have made to answer their questions.
What she seems to be suggesting is as I feared - and it's all about work, work, work, work and the usual conflation of disability with illness.
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

yahyah wrote:'Ex-UKIP man and marine Ian Couch in pig's head insult to Cambridge mosque'
http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/Ex-UKIP ... z3Ocyg1nv7" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

His excuse to the court, that he was 'tired & emotional'.
Speaking in court, Couch confessed he had been drinking heavily when he sent the email and that he was angry and emotional after watching the news and an online video of four women being killed by militants.

He also argued it was a coincidence the head was found in his fridge upon his arrest, claiming he had got it as a treat for his dogs despite it being the first time he had ever bought a head rather than just ears or trotters.
How heavily had he been drinking when he bought that pig's head then? Seems to me it is likely to have been rather more pre meditated than he claims ... I've never heard of buying a head as a 'treat' for dogs.
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

ComRes ‏@ComResPolls 9m9 minutes ago
A 1st for our @ITVNews election issues tracker: NHS overtakes immigration as top voter concern http://www.itv.com/news/2015-01-12/itv- ... or-voters/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by ErnstRemarx »

yahyah wrote:'Ex-UKIP man and marine Ian Couch in pig's head insult to Cambridge mosque'
http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/Ex-UKIP ... z3Ocyg1nv7" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

His excuse to the court, that he was 'tired & emotional'.
Probably strong medication, like the last disgraced kipper.
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

For those who understand these polling things far better than I - comment from UK Polling Report:
HAL
I suspect Ashcroft has c***ed up: table 2 (all respondents) has Con 22% Lab 20%, with “definitely vote that way” sub-sample Con 33% Lab 35% (i.e., a likelihood-to-vote filter would favour Lab).
So how do you get from that to the headline figure? It looks impossible to me.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archi ... 3#comments
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by HindleA »

Link to DPAC/Kate Green


http://dpac.uk.net/2015/01/alarm-bells- ... ate-green/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

rebeccariots2 wrote:ComRes ‏@ComResPolls 9m9 minutes ago
A 1st for our @ITVNews election issues tracker: NHS overtakes immigration as top voter concern http://www.itv.com/news/2015-01-12/itv- ... or-voters/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …

Which is why the Ashcroft poll is bollocks. Look at the ITV numbers.
Managing the NHS: 50% (+11)
Controlling immigration: 46% (-3)
Keeping down the cost of everyday living - including managing costs of food, energy and travel: 25% (-3)
Promoting economic growth: 20% (no change)
Reducing inequality: Making sure the benefits of economic growth are felt by all: 20% (no change)
Reducing the budget deficit: 19% (-2)
Making the welfare system fairer:19% (no change)
Redefining Britain's relationship with the EU: 19% (-2)
Labour leads on the NHS, UKIP on immigration, cost of living is a Labour theme, the Tory areas all come below that.

Not something that would return a 6% Tory lead.
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by rearofthestore »

rebeccariots2 wrote:For those who understand these polling things far better than I - comment from UK Polling Report:
HAL
I suspect Ashcroft has c***ed up: table 2 (all respondents) has Con 22% Lab 20%, with “definitely vote that way” sub-sample Con 33% Lab 35% (i.e., a likelihood-to-vote filter would favour Lab).
So how do you get from that to the headline figure? It looks impossible to me.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archi ... 3#comments
I am sure the poll is flawed and Ashcroft polls have form if you remember.
Ed Miliband and Doncaster North: a correction (and apology)
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/12/ed ... orrection/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by yahyah »

Have had several silent phone calls today, when checked the phone number it is, oddly, 12345678.

Anyone else had that ?
Toby Latimer

Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by Toby Latimer »

ephemerid wrote:There is a very worrying post on the DPAC site today about a speech given by Kate Green last October to SERTUC.

It's here - dpac.uk.net/2015/01/alarm-bells-are-ringing-answers-please-kate-green/

The article below the video clip explains the concern better than I can - but I would also point out that the ideas she is putting forward assumes that the Work programme will not only continue but all ESA claimants are likely to be on it.

I am not happy. I hope she responds to the requests DPAC have made to answer their questions.
What she seems to be suggesting is as I feared - and it's all about work, work, work, work and the usual conflation of disability with illness.
Anxious times ahead I fear. Good job that Maximarse have got a new delivery officer to help smooth things over and help to eventually get rid of the WCA eh
Oh hang on ...
ScreenShot00268.jpg
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by Toby Latimer »

yahyah wrote:Have had several silent phone calls today, when checked the phone number it is, oddly, 12345678.

Anyone else had that ?
Fraud from the Netherlands according to this site yahyah, http://whocallsme.com/Phone-Number.aspx/012345678/5" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

Toby Latimer wrote:
yahyah wrote:Have had several silent phone calls today, when checked the phone number it is, oddly, 12345678.

Anyone else had that ?
Fraud from the Netherlands according to this site yahyah, http://whocallsme.com/Phone-Number.aspx/012345678/5" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
CLI is broken in telephone networks, greedy operators fault. Any call with an untrusted (or potentially untrusted CLI) should be marked as unknown, then you can bin them. Basically any silent call is a sales pitch, presumably the recorded announcement didn't play.
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by yahyah »

Toby Latimer wrote:
yahyah wrote:Have had several silent phone calls today, when checked the phone number it is, oddly, 12345678.

Anyone else had that ?
Fraud from the Netherlands according to this site yahyah, http://whocallsme.com/Phone-Number.aspx/012345678/5" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Thanks Toby. Not all of the calls I've had today were silent, one was someone laughing.
Most unpleasant.
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by HindleA »

Regarding the Ashcroft polls

http://may2015.com/datablast/why-the-to ... nts-ahead/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by yahyah »

Thanks TE. This was my landline. I'm very low tech for phones, have an ancient mobile pay as you go for car journey emergency use only.
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by Toby Latimer »

yahyah wrote:
Toby Latimer wrote:
yahyah wrote:Have had several silent phone calls today, when checked the phone number it is, oddly, 12345678.

Anyone else had that ?
Fraud from the Netherlands according to this site yahyah, http://whocallsme.com/Phone-Number.aspx/012345678/5" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Thanks Toby. Not all of the calls I've had today were silent, one was someone laughing.
Most unpleasant.
I invested in one of these about 7 years ago http://www.cprcallblocker.com/#" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Invaluable bit of kit, and easy to use - stops all those unwanted nuisance calls
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

yahyah wrote:Have had several silent phone calls today, when checked the phone number it is, oddly, 12345678.

Anyone else had that ?
Never had one like that.
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

yahyah wrote:Thanks TE. This was my landline. I'm very low tech for phones, have an ancient mobile pay as you go for car journey emergency use only.
I once read a very good suggestion for those sort of calls. Get a police whistle and blow it down the receiver. Hard and long.
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

HindleA wrote:Regarding the Ashcroft polls

http://may2015.com/datablast/why-the-to ... nts-ahead/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I did a YouGov survey a couple of days ago. Often they'll ask how you voted in 2010, but I'm pretty sure this one didn't.
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

ohsocynical wrote:
yahyah wrote:Thanks TE. This was my landline. I'm very low tech for phones, have an ancient mobile pay as you go for car journey emergency use only.
I once read a very good suggestion for those sort of calls. Get a police whistle and blow it down the receiver. Hard and long.
I once read a spec for a piece of line test that warned if you mis configured it then it would place a hazardous voltage on the line. That is a feature I want.
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by Spacedone »

rebeccariots2 wrote:
A deliberate threat to the govt – U-turn on the £21,000 student loan repayment threshold I will organise mass protest
http://blog.moneysavingexpert.com/2015/ ... s-protest/
Let me be plain – I am writing this blog to put down a marker to the Government. If it decides to renege on its promise to uprate the £21,000 student loan repayment threshold, it will have mis-sold university education to many students, personally betrayed me and I will do all I can to organise protest.

It is thankfully only a mooted idea so far, yet I’m worried that it is quickly gaining traction. So I want to bash out a quick explanation…..
Just catching up with all the excellent posts today.

I remember listening to Martin Lewis extolling on the radio how the Coalition's student loan policy would be a good thing for students because the threshold was set high enough that if you didn't get a decent job then you wouldn't pay back a penny. A number of people phoned in to challenge this because he was assuming no changes over a period of 40 years to which he replied that he'd been "assured on this point".

For a man who made his fortune out of being seen as a financial advice expert it seemed remarkably naive for him to back the policy simply because something said "Oh don't worry I'm sure we won't change any of the terms and conditions at all." Now he's blogging about being personally betrayed because the things that the average man in the street could see coming from a mile away is now being contemplated?


As for that Ashcroft poll... I won't be losing any sleep over that, particularly as his full data claims that Labour support in the North is 24%, just 1% higher than it is in the South East. Laughable. He should stick to constituency polling, his national stuff is embarrassingly all over the place.
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by tinyclanger2 »

evening all
LET'S FACE IT I'M JUST 'KIN' SEETHIN'
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by Eric_WLothian »

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:
yahyah wrote:Thanks TE. This was my landline. I'm very low tech for phones, have an ancient mobile pay as you go for car journey emergency use only.
I once read a very good suggestion for those sort of calls. Get a police whistle and blow it down the receiver. Hard and long.
I once read a spec for a piece of line test that warned if you mis configured it then it would place a hazardous voltage on the line. That is a feature I want.
I get these calls all the time! CLI is useless, as the numbers are usually spoofed or not recognised. The silent calls are caused by auto-dialling equipment deliberately calling more numbers than the call centre staff can handle - if you pick up the phone and all the staff are busy, you have a silent call. Blocking all unidentified numbers could prevent legitimate calls getting through.

It's currently the subject of a 'Which?' (Consumers Association) campaign:
http://www.which.co.uk/campaigns/nuisan ... -and-Texts
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

In the first week of January 80.7 per cent of patients admitted in need of urgent treatment were waiting less than four hours to be seen, which is 14.3 per cent below the national target.

http://www.readingchronicle.co.uk/news/ ... -hospital/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I feel sorry for them because they aren't a bad hospital and cover a huge area. In fact their heart team is the fastest in the country.
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

Eric_WLothian wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:
ohsocynical wrote: I once read a very good suggestion for those sort of calls. Get a police whistle and blow it down the receiver. Hard and long.
I once read a spec for a piece of line test that warned if you mis configured it then it would place a hazardous voltage on the line. That is a feature I want.
I get these calls all the time! CLI is useless, as the numbers are usually spoofed or not recognised. The silent calls are caused by auto-dialling equipment deliberately calling more numbers than the call centre staff can handle - if you pick up the phone and all the staff are busy, you have a silent call. Blocking all unidentified numbers could prevent legitimate calls getting through.

It's currently the subject of a 'Which?' (Consumers Association) campaign:
http://www.which.co.uk/campaigns/nuisan ... -and-Texts
Yes I would say more, but I can't.

Let's just say it has ministerial attention.
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

Oh dear Cameron has stumbled into stupidity again.

http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style ... 73035.html

Massive idiot, people are not going to accept having popular services stopped because Cammers wants to spy on them.

Presumably GCHQ want their daily dose of scantily clad teenagers (Snapchat).

I cannot believe whatsapp can't be intercepted they just serve a warrant on the company.
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

Stop all the clocks. Cut off the telephone. Prevent the dog from barking with a juicy bone.

Monday 12 January 2015 will go down in confectionary history as a bad day. A hurtful day.

The day when it was revealed that Cadbury’s Creme Eggs have changed forever.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... mentpage=1
God damn it all to hell.

Will the horrors never end????!!!
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by frightful_oik »

citizenJA wrote:
Stop all the clocks. Cut off the telephone. Prevent the dog from barking with a juicy bone.

Monday 12 January 2015 will go down in confectionary history as a bad day. A hurtful day.

The day when it was revealed that Cadbury’s Creme Eggs have changed forever.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... mentpage=1
God damn it all to hell.

Will the horrors never end????!!!
It gets worse. In Brum they have to call them Jihadbury Creme Eggs. It says so on tinternet.
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Eric_WLothian
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by Eric_WLothian »

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
Let's just say it has ministerial attention.
Ah - too many calls stopping the staff from chilling the champagne properly in time for dinner? :)
ohsocynical
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

citizenJA wrote:
Stop all the clocks. Cut off the telephone. Prevent the dog from barking with a juicy bone.

Monday 12 January 2015 will go down in confectionary history as a bad day. A hurtful day.

The day when it was revealed that Cadbury’s Creme Eggs have changed forever.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... mentpage=1
God damn it all to hell.

Will the horrors never end????!!!
Well that was on the books when Kraft bought out Cadbury's made all sorts of promises about keeping jobs and then moved lock stock and barrel to Poland.
When the government demanded they appear and answer questions about their intentions Kraft told them to take a running jump.

I don't buy Cadbury's any more, because they've been quietly changing the recipe for quite a few years ever since they half sold out to an American in fact. It's nothing like it used to be.

Quality St are another example. They used to be made by Mackintoshes, and were one of my Christmas favourites. Dearer but worth it. Then they were taken over and now if you were blindfolded you wouldn't know what you were eating.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
ohsocynical
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

The problem seems to be that in the US some chocolate doesn't actually contain any chocolate. We are being Americanised. Bloody Yanks.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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citizenJA
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

ohsocynical wrote:The problem seems to be that in the US some chocolate doesn't actually contain any chocolate. We are being Americanised. Bloody Yanks.
I wholeheartedly agree.
ohsocynical
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015 33 mins33 minutes ago
Populus polling Net England & Wales

LABOUR 38%
CONSERVATIVES 33.1%
UKIP 13.9%
LIBDEMS 10.1%
GREENS 4%
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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TheGrimSqueaker
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by TheGrimSqueaker »

ohsocynical wrote:The problem seems to be that in the US some chocolate doesn't actually contain any chocolate. We are being Americanised. Bloody Yanks.
Canadian relatives of mine always bring a spare piece of carry on luggage, which they stuff full of Dairy Milk when they go back; they are very popular when they get home! :D I can understand why, having once sampled what the Americans laughingly call chocolate, the vile Hershey bar, very nearly threw up.
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HindleA
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Re: Monday 12th January 2015

Post by HindleA »

Indeed,commonly used as an emetic.
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