Thursday 15th January 2015

A home from home
Forum rules
Welcome to FTN. New posters are welcome to join the conversation. You can follow us on Twitter @FlythenestHaven You are responsible for the content you post. This is a public forum. Treat it as if you are speaking in a crowded room. Site admin and Moderators are volunteers who will respond as quickly as they are able to when made aware of any complaints. Please do not post copyrighted material without the original authors permission.
Tish
Committee Member
Posts: 181
Joined: Tue 26 Aug, 2014 8:35 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by Tish »

StephenDolan wrote:- Targeted action on high-strength, low-cost alcohol which fuels binge drinking and does most harm to health, with a range of options on both price and bottle-size being explored;
- Standardised cigarette packaging to be introduced immediately to halt the industry’s increasingly sophisticated methods of recruiting new, young smokers; and a goal that children born in 2015 will become the first ‘smoke-free generation’.

Good ideas from Andy Burnham
Is there any actual evidence that making stronger alcohol drinks more expensive actually cuts binge drinking? I ask becouse in my experience, the kinds of drinks that usually get hammered by this sort of thing (the Tennants Supers and Mad Dog 20/20s of the drink world) don't tend to be drunk by binge drinkers anyway. Binge drinkers either go out and get drunk in clubs, which is already pretty expensive, or club together to buy spirits and neck it all before they start. To actually have an affect purely though pricing, you would have to raise prices so high that barely anybody would be able to afford alcohol.

In my experience these kind of policies often have the opposite effect of what was intended, I was a big drinker back in the days of the alchopop panic of the '90s, and when they hiked the prices up we just stopped drinking Hooch and started drinking vodka and orange instead. We ended up drinking more, becouse it made you less gassy. Surely it would make more sense to try and find out why so many people want to get so wasted all the time, rather than constantly tinkering with prices in this inefectual manner.
User avatar
citizenJA
Prime Minister
Posts: 20648
Joined: Thu 11 Sep, 2014 12:22 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

Lonewolfie wrote:
citizenJA wrote:
StephenDolan

I wonder how many private landlords will be happy with the cap if it involves heavily cutting the housing benefit paid to them? I can see a lot of brains exploding coping with the diametrically opposed positions.
Well said!

The DWP has been rung up for under & over payments - I noticed right away any overpayment was in housing benefit, according to the G article I read. The underpayments are simply people not receiving their entitlements.
This one?...and WARNING...sincere apologies for the image - not for the faint-hearted :shock:

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/uk ... ne-3175130

Also, this report should be (set alight and) rammed up IDS-Fraud until they can read it from the inside...

“Given the lack of evidence that the Department is getting to grips with fraud and error we view with scepticism the Department’s confidence that it will meet its target to reduce total fraud and error overpayments to 1.7% of benefit expenditure by March 2015.”

http://linkis.com/www.24dash.com/news/ddC2y
Found the article I'd read.
Duncan Smith has repeatedly promised to clamp down on benefit fraud, and has claimed that the introduction of universal credit (UC), which aims to roll six benefits into one payment, will bring an end to many of the problems in the system. However, the figures show that fraud and error are rising, while UC is behind schedule – only 20,000 people are currently claiming it, rather than the one million envisaged by ministers.

Housing benefit is paid to 5m households on low incomes. The report said that in the last financial year, £1.4bn of overpayments were made – 5.8% of housing benefit spending – up from £980m (4.6%) in 2010/11. Claimant error was the cause of two-thirds, or £900m, of overpayments, the report said. But £340m of overpayments were due to fraud and £150m of overpayments were due to delay, inaction or mistakes in assessment by local authority officials.

Hodge added that, other than a media campaign that is largely targeting overpayments, the DWP had failed to come up with a method to specifically help claimants who were not being paid their full entitlement. “We are also concerned that the department is not doing anything to target underpayments, despite the hardship caused to those who miss out on the support they are entitled to,” she said.
(my bold)
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015 ... ors-rising
User avatar
TechnicalEphemera
Speaker of the House
Posts: 2967
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:21 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

mikems wrote:TE,

What I think I am saying, in short, is that UKIP gains about 14% support, but in that list is weighted at 25%, with the crude lumping together being done. Would it not be more accurate to say that the tories, say, have about 34% support and 38% of their supporters weigh immigration that high, etc and continue weighing for each party?

The Greens are also subsumed somewhere in the figures. But if they had been included separately how would their figures be included? By simple averaging, dividing the crude total by five, not four, even though their support is as small as the Liberals?

The figures seem to drop out the Greens, for reasons I don't understand.

So assume you have p% for each party and Pr% for each preference (figures in table).

Sum (p1-4) pn*pr / sum(p1-4)pn

Probably gives the figure they quote, but I agree it is flawed.
Release the Guardvarks.
User avatar
ephemerid
Speaker of the House
Posts: 2690
Joined: Tue 26 Aug, 2014 11:56 am

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by ephemerid »

"Reforming welfare to cut benefit dependency"

First, you should be required to prove that such dependency actually exists - beyond support for the old, the sick, and the disabled, it doesn't.

80% of all claimants of JSA find work within 6 months or less. 80% of all ESA claimants sign off within 3 months because they get better.

The number of people claiming JSA for ten years or more has just reached 1,000.
The 3 and 5 year rates have increased under the coalition, tenfold and doubled respectively.
Mainly because there are no decent jobs and 1.5 Million people have been sent to the Work Programme and of the 750,000 who have completed the full 2 years, more than 700,000 of them have not found work.

The claimant counts, the many and various changes and cuts, all appear to show improvements in the figures - despite all this, ONS figures show that, just as in 2010, there remain 5 million people on out-of-work benefits.
There is a significant "churn" going on, and some of those people disappear from the counts - people who run out of time-limited entitlements, people who move between benefits, people who are sanctioned, people sent to schemes/programmes, people who just give up.

If it is true that there is dependency on state benefits, it's because the people who are thus dependent need the support, not because they want it or have become accustomed to it. For the vast majority, claiming benefits is not a choice they make happily.

Earlier this week, a claimant in Scotland (Grangemouth) was sanctioned 5 times in one day. He was accused of refusing to apply for work (a high-level sanction) and it was alleged that his adviser had given him 5 jobs to apply for and he refused to apply for any of them.
That means 5 separate high-level sanctions, which is an automatic ban on JSA for 156 weeks. He has a temporary job for now; but if he needs to sign on again he will be subject to the 5 sanctions which will continue from the date of any new claim.

I have also seen some contracts for various schemes in which the contractor is charged with removing barriers to employment which include resistance to change, worklessness, lack of positivity, belief in incapacity due to illness, and poor skills due to long-term dependency.
This is basically a blueprint for bullying - whatever a claimant may perceive as their problem, even if they are correct to think the way they do, government orders are to stop them thinking that way and punish them if they dare to continue.

I am dependent on benefits. It is not how I want things to be. No politician or paid contractor can force me to stop believing that my doctors are competent and that I have a realistic concept of my ability to work based on medical opinion and self-knowledge.

ALL parties need to rethink their stance on social security. We have a significant cohort of people who will be of working age for much longer due to pension changes. We have a massive cohort of people who are living longer but who are likely to be living with permanent disability.
Medical advances have led to many people surviving when they wouldn't have ten years ago, and many of them will not be able to work.

When Osborne can tell the press that he thinks the UK could become the richest of the world's top economies, and we have people without work locked out of state support on spurious grounds for 3 years, there is a dichotomy in political thinking that is utterly sick.
"Poverty is the worst form of violence" - Mahatma Gandhi
mikems
Minister of State
Posts: 490
Joined: Thu 28 Aug, 2014 12:47 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by mikems »

What they call 'welfare dependency' is evidence that millions of people cannot make a living in our wonderful free market plutocracy...who would have guessed that shifting wealth and power to a tiny elite for nearly half a century would mean that most ordinary people are struggling more and more.
Tish
Committee Member
Posts: 181
Joined: Tue 26 Aug, 2014 8:35 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by Tish »

"Medical advances have led to many people surviving when they wouldn't have ten years ago, and many of them will not be able to work."

I always think of that when politicians express shock and indignation at the amount of people of incapacity benefit compared with twenty years ago. Twenty years ago half of those people would have died, but the amazing advances in science and medicine mean people with acute conditions can live for so much longer. But I can't remember ever seeing a journalist point this simple fact out to the outraged politician.
User avatar
Willow904
Prime Minister
Posts: 7220
Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 2:40 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by Willow904 »

http://www.newstatesman.com/broadcast/2 ... ng-suicide

I stumbled across this article by accident when looking for something else (I was searching Stacey Dooley and Japan because I remembered her doing a documentary about their economic slump). It's fascinating. I had no idea the Samaritans had guidelines for reporting suicide. All the guidelines are very important I'm sure, the real case example of Bridgend and copy cat suicides made a lot of sense, but I can't help but wonder if the press feel they can't even mention suicide and welfare reforms in the same paragraph without falling foul of the "Avoid simplistic explanations for suicide" guideline.

Still, it's no excuse for the media though really, is it? I mean there's nothing to stop them asking the question "how does someone survive on nothing for three months when sanctioned" over and over again. Seriously, what do DWP thinks will happen when they withdraw every single penny of state support from someone for months at a time? Have they got any kind policy explanation that fills that gap in income that doesn't involve crime or charity?

Anyway, what I really wanted to comment on was how when I watched that documentary a couple of years ago I was appalled at the way homeless people were hidden away out of sight behind little curtains on the streets. Now, however, I'm started to think the Japanese are quite compassionate really, providing their homeless with not just permission to sleep on the streets, but with free tents too! Just contrast with here where the police have been taking blankets and tents away from homeless people and basically saying if they have no place of their own to sleep in, they're not allowed to sleep anywhere. If the UK is going through something similar to Japan, as much as I don't think Japan hasn't responded very well to their extended economic slump, we appear to be responding even worse to our own.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
WelshIan
Committee Member
Posts: 184
Joined: Thu 23 Oct, 2014 1:22 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by WelshIan »

Good afternoon everyone

George Osborne on Tuesday (Charter for Budget Responsibility):
Mr Osborne: What we have done is cut the deficit by a half. We have neither gone faster than we said we were going to go, nor gone slower than we said we were going to go. We have stuck to our spending plans when people were urging us to take either course.
David Cameron on Wednesday (PMQs):
The Prime Minister: We said we would get the deficit down and the deficit is down by half as a share of our national economy, from the disgraceful situation left by Labour.
Is this their new strategy then, to completely ignore that they promised to eliminate the deficit in the hope that no one notices? If that is the strategy, it will not end well.

The quotes are from Hansard and I have to admit quite enjoying reading the debates on there:
http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/hansard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

- Nick, tell us about this row.

- Well, Sophie, it's about the election debates. Ed Miliband is trying to avoid debating with the Green Party.

The End.
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Seriously, what do DWP thinks will happen when they withdraw every single penny of state support from someone for months at a time? Have they got any kind policy explanation that fills that gap in income that doesn't involve crime or charity?
Very often it'll be other family members copping it.

This never seems to cross politicians' minds- wrong kind of families.
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

mikems wrote:In more decent times, before hate-speech and anger became the common currency of political discourse, what is now demeaningly called 'welfare dependency' used to be described by sociologists and sensible people as the 'poverty trap'.

We should reclaim the language of politcal decency and insist on 'poverty trap' as the proper term.
The poverty trap was more specific, wasn't it? Losing benefits to gain very little in work, especially young women who'd need childcare.

Tax credits improved that situation a fair bit, I think. I think the minimum wage is too low and working rights to weak, but you're going to need them anyway. What they do is take into account circumstances, whereas the basic labour market (whatever the minimum wage) isn't interested in whether someone is single or a single parent.

There's been a depressing unholy alliance of left and right attacking them, talking as though the whole amount is going to poor people. It isn't- they go a fair way up the income scale so that there isn't a "poverty trap" higher up.

They've just been cut by the Coalition, with dire effects on child poverty.
User avatar
ephemerid
Speaker of the House
Posts: 2690
Joined: Tue 26 Aug, 2014 11:56 am

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by ephemerid »

Tish wrote:
StephenDolan wrote:- Targeted action on high-strength, low-cost alcohol which fuels binge drinking and does most harm to health, with a range of options on both price and bottle-size being explored;
- Standardised cigarette packaging to be introduced immediately to halt the industry’s increasingly sophisticated methods of recruiting new, young smokers; and a goal that children born in 2015 will become the first ‘smoke-free generation’.

Good ideas from Andy Burnham
Is there any actual evidence that making stronger alcohol drinks more expensive actually cuts binge drinking? I ask becouse in my experience, the kinds of drinks that usually get hammered by this sort of thing (the Tennants Supers and Mad Dog 20/20s of the drink world) don't tend to be drunk by binge drinkers anyway. Binge drinkers either go out and get drunk in clubs, which is already pretty expensive, or club together to buy spirits and neck it all before they start. To actually have an affect purely though pricing, you would have to raise prices so high that barely anybody would be able to afford alcohol.

In my experience these kind of policies often have the opposite effect of what was intended, I was a big drinker back in the days of the alchopop panic of the '90s, and when they hiked the prices up we just stopped drinking Hooch and started drinking vodka and orange instead. We ended up drinking more, becouse it made you less gassy. Surely it would make more sense to try and find out why so many people want to get so wasted all the time, rather than constantly tinkering with prices in this inefectual manner.

Hello Tish.

Speaking as a person who worked for a DAAT (Drug/Alcohol Action Team) for a now-defunct PCT, and as a recovering alcoholic who has worked with many AA people in various ways, I know a bit about this.

Binge drinkers come in many shapes and sizes. Most are probably not alcoholic in the accepted sense, but many alcoholics are or were binge drinkers.
I know many people who could stay away from a drink for months at a time, but one binge session could have them drinking 24/7 for days or weeks.

There is a lot of interesting neuro-physiological research which shows that some people, on exposure to certain substances, will develop a physical craving for it; that explains some people who become addicted to substances they are genetically or chemically susceptible to very quickly, and it might also explain why some families have a history of addiction.
There is also a wealth of evidence which shows that there is also an "addictive personality" which explains why many problem drinkers also often have other risky behaviours (gambling, drug use, sex addiction, eating disorders) and why treatment to address the primary dependency rarely works unless the underlying personality is treated.
There is also a lot of evidence which support the idea that childhood or other trauma leads to addiction; the 12-step fellowships and treatment centres have a significantly higher proportion of people who have such issues than is found in the general population.

Alcohol and some drugs also have an in-built quality which will lead to physical dependency if the use of the substance is regular and prolonged - as the body adjusts to frequent and copious use, it requires more in order to achieve the desired effect.
That's why people who are prescribed (often necessary) strong pain relief or sedatives can become dependent iatrogenically; that's what happened to people who took benzodiazepines (Valium, Librium, Mogadon) over years of treatment.

When you put all this together, people who may not (on the face of it) be at risk of dependency if they drink recklessly. The cost of alcohol in pubs and clubs is not affordable (in quantity) for many young people, and it has become commonplace for people to get tanked up on cheap spirits before they even go out.
The problem then is, that as you experienced, they are imbibing more alcohol than they realise; that in turn will result in more risky drinking and other behaviours, because alcohol is so disinhibiting.

Kids have experimented with getting off their tits since time immemorial; people who are fragile and have trouble coping with life have always sought escape; the problem these days is the ubiquity, variety, and easy access to alcohol.
Specialist doctors, treatment experts, and many people working in the field appear to agree that pricing will make a difference; some of them are also calling for supermarkets and drinking venues to curtail their opening/licensed hours.

Alcohol is a poison. That's not hyperbole, it's a fact. In very limited quantities, it's a good social lubricant and an enjoyable part of life.
But it is nevertheless a very dangerous substance - one senior policeman of my acquaintance who has worked in the field for years reckons if it was a new thing that came on the market now, it would not be approved for general use.

Nothing will change here because the government makes £10 Billion a year on duties; it wouldn't give that up in a hurry.

I don't know what the answer is, but pricing and accessibility has to part of it. Meanwhile, liver disease is the only major cause of death that is on the increase; fatalities have increased by 25% in less than a decade.
Pricing will not deter the chronic alcoholic. But it might help to cut excessive use (deliberate or accidental) in young people. so in my view it's worth a try.
"Poverty is the worst form of violence" - Mahatma Gandhi
WelshIan
Committee Member
Posts: 184
Joined: Thu 23 Oct, 2014 1:22 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by WelshIan »

daydreamer wrote:Ham face is off to the USA for a photo-op with Obama. Must be an election due :toss:
David Cameron will today urge the American Government to force US-based Facebook and Twitter to take tougher action against terrorists using social media to hatch plots.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 78680.html
Yes, because Facebook and Twitter are the communication tools of choice for terrorists, obviously.
User avatar
Willow904
Prime Minister
Posts: 7220
Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 2:40 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by Willow904 »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
Seriously, what do DWP thinks will happen when they withdraw every single penny of state support from someone for months at a time? Have they got any kind policy explanation that fills that gap in income that doesn't involve crime or charity?
Very often it'll be other family members copping it.

This never seems to cross politicians' minds- wrong kind of families.
But family filling the income hole can't be official policy. What if someone has no family? What if they were raised in care? The implication of sanctions on the scale we're currently facing is that we no longer have a fully functioning safety net. I guess what I'm musing over is that the whole thing about suicides and whether or not they are related to welfare reform (and whether or not it's harmful to discuss suicide in such simplistic terms) doesn't even need to come into it. The policy itself, in abstract form, is so full of holes that an unbiased media should be all over it. No one voted for the removal of the basic safety net provided by the welfare state, yet with the Coalition's reforms it's gone.

On a positive note, apparently the CofE has been laying into Thatcher's legacy of “rampant consumerism and individualism” ! (according to Andrew Sparrow's blog, from an article in the Telegraph). Hurrah! The tight, icy grip of neoliberalism is finally slipping.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

WelshIan wrote:
daydreamer wrote:Ham face is off to the USA for a photo-op with Obama. Must be an election due :toss:
David Cameron will today urge the American Government to force US-based Facebook and Twitter to take tougher action against terrorists using social media to hatch plots.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 78680.html
Yes, because Facebook and Twitter are the communication tool of choice for terrorists, obviously.
Not so much plots, as loons who don't really care if they get caught.

He's got the Lee Rigby murderer in mind. He was sounding off on Facebook, apparently.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... Obama.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

As ever, there's some hilarity.
He claimed that the heads of global web firms had a “distorted libertarian ideology” that made them “wholly detached from responsibility to governments and to the peoples that we democratically represent”.
There being the same global web firms he keeps courting.
Last edited by Tubby Isaacs on Thu 15 Jan, 2015 2:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
WelshIan
Committee Member
Posts: 184
Joined: Thu 23 Oct, 2014 1:22 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by WelshIan »

With regard to the vote on the Charter of Responsibility, Danny Alexander makes it clear that Labour did not vote for £30 billion of cuts, Labour voted to clear the structural deficit in the required timeframe. As has been noted previously, Labour's plan is completely different to the Conservative plan.
I am proud of the progress we have made in this Parliament and welcome the widespread support this Charter for Budget Responsibility has received across the House, but it is important to be clear what this charter does and does not do. It sets out that the Government of the day must have a plan to eliminate the structural deficit within three years and get our national debt falling as a percentage of GDP by 2016-17. Of course it does not prescribe what specific steps various parties would actually take to meet the commitments that the charter imposes.
The quote is from Hansard.
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Willow904 wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:
Seriously, what do DWP thinks will happen when they withdraw every single penny of state support from someone for months at a time? Have they got any kind policy explanation that fills that gap in income that doesn't involve crime or charity?
Very often it'll be other family members copping it.

This never seems to cross politicians' minds- wrong kind of families.
But family filling the income hole can't be official policy. What if someone has no family? What if they were raised in care? The implication of sanctions on the scale we're currently facing is that we no longer have a fully functioning safety net. I guess what I'm musing over is that the whole thing about suicides and whether or not they are related to welfare reform (and whether or not it's harmful to discuss suicide in such simplistic terms) doesn't even need to come into it. The policy itself, in abstract form, is so full of holes that an unbiased media should be all over it. No one voted for the removal of the basic safety net provided by the welfare state, yet with the Coalition's reforms it's gone.

On a positive note, apparently the CofE has been laying into Thatcher's legacy of “rampant consumerism and individualism” ! (according to Andrew Sparrow's blog, from an article in the Telegraph). Hurrah! The tight, icy grip of neoliberalism is finally slipping.
I'd argue that the 1997-2010 government was rather more complicated than neo-liberal (at least post-the first tight term). It was genuinely redistributive, and raised the size of the state to the European mainstream. It did much better on capital investment than the Coalition and any government since the 70s (in which time the figures were raised by utilities being paid for by tax rather than mainly through bills). PFIs were a surprisingly low percentage of the investment too.
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

mikems wrote:In more decent times, before hate-speech and anger became the common currency of political discourse, what is now demeaningly called 'welfare dependency' used to be described by sociologists and sensible people as the 'poverty trap'.

We should reclaim the language of politcal decency and insist on 'poverty trap' as the proper term.
But I agree with you about the whole language used. Welfare for what we used to call social security is a particular annoyance to me.

It's political correctness, right wing style. Hate speech, as you rightly say.

And taken a ridiculous step further by Osborne including public sector pensions within "welfare" on his mailshot.
WelshIan
Committee Member
Posts: 184
Joined: Thu 23 Oct, 2014 1:22 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by WelshIan »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
WelshIan wrote:
daydreamer wrote:Ham face is off to the USA for a photo-op with Obama. Must be an election due :toss:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 78680.html
Yes, because Facebook and Twitter are the communication tool of choice for terrorists, obviously.
Not so much plots, as loons who don't really care if they get caught.

He's got the Lee Rigby murderer in mind. He was sounding off on Facebook, apparently.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... Obama.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

As ever, there's some hilarity.
He claimed that the heads of global web firms had a “distorted libertarian ideology” that made them “wholly detached from responsibility to governments and to the peoples that we democratically represent”.
There being the same global web firms he keeps courting.
The Guardian is slightly better on the Lee Rigby murder:
The report said even if the security servicesfailings it identified had not occurred, their knowledge of the two extremists would not have led analysts to assess them as poised to strike.

Adebolajo, the more dominant of the two , had featured in five MI5 investigations and Adebowale in two, but none found evidence of an attack.

The ISC said MI5 made errors and was plagued by delays, but even if corrected none of this would have helped the security service to spot the level of danger posed by the attackers before they struck.

The committee said that at any time MI5 investigated several thousand individuals linked to militant Islamist activities in the UK.

The inquiry was set up to investigate the role of the intelligence agencies, which had the two men under surveillance. “There were errors in these operations, where processes were not followed, decisions not recorded, or delays encountered. However, we do not consider that any of these errors, taken individually, were significant enough to have made a difference,” the report says.

“Adebolajo was a high priority for MI5 during two operations: they put significant effort into investigating him and employed a broad range of intrusive techniques. None of these revealed any evidence of attack planning,” the committee says.

“By contrast, Michael Adebowale was never more than a low level SoI [subject of interest] and the agencies took appropriate action based on the rigorous threshold set down in law: they had not received any intelligence that Adebowale was planning an attack and, based on that evidence, more intrusive action would not have been justified.”
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014 ... eport-says" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The Facebook message about killing a soldier was posted 6 months before the attack, and both men were known to the security services. From reading the article, it seems to me that nothing could have stopped that murder and the committee were looking for someone to blame (or shift focus away from security service failings).
Governments have to accept that no matter how much information is collected there are still going to be atrocities committed that can not be stopped. They have to be more intelligent in the use of the data collected rather than more widespread in their collection of data.
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Ah, thanks.

Yes, security services should have known enough about them anyway.
User avatar
rebeccariots2
Prime Minister
Posts: 14038
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 8:20 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

Grayling back in court over duty contract process
http://www.solicitorsjournal.com/news/c ... ct-process
Judicial review 'end game' in sight for criminal solicitors
The government's contentious plans to overhaul legal aid representation in police stations and magistrates' courts are to once again be scrutinised by the High Court this week.
The Lord Chancellor, Chris Grayling, faces another judicial review over his controversial proposals which have been widely criticised by the legal profession as damaging to the rule of law and will ultimately lead to an increased risk of miscarriages of justice.
The government is seeking to reduce the number of on-call solicitor contracts in police stations and magistrates' courts from the current 1,600 to 527 across England and Wales. London and rural areas are expected to be the worst hit if the contracts are allowed to go through....
Working on the wild side.
mikems
Minister of State
Posts: 490
Joined: Thu 28 Aug, 2014 12:47 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by mikems »

Yes, the 'poverty trap' was more specific back then before the language morphed away from sociological examination aiming to discover solutions to root causes, and allowed them to 'go even further' to 'reform welfare' with caps, workfare, zero hours etc, etc.

The old poverty trap has been sprung on many millions more now - all those who have a cut in tax credits and housing benefits when their wages go up. It is no longer about people on unemployment benefits, but large chunks of the active workforce too.
StephenDolan
First Secretary of State
Posts: 3725
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 10:15 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by StephenDolan »

RobertSnozers wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:
I'd argue that the 1997-2010 government was rather more complicated than neo-liberal (at least post-the first tight term). It was genuinely redistributive, and raised the size of the state to the European mainstream. It did much better on capital investment than the Coalition and any government since the 70s (in which time the figures were raised by utilities being paid for by tax rather than mainly through bills). PFIs were a surprisingly low percentage of the investment too.
This is the problem with the meme that the coalition is only carrying on New Labour's work. Yes, many of the mechanisms the Tories are using to attack the state were introduced by the last government (Academies, Foundation Trusts, Independent-Sector Treatment Centres, and PFI etc) but they remained a small part of the overall picture.

My own belief is that the market elements introduced by New Labour have made things a little easier for the Tories but it's not like they wouldn't have gone all out to privatise huge chunks of the public sector anyway. I know not everyone subscribes to that view.
Exactly. The coalition have been clever with the language used. As I'm constantly pointing out to folks, academies (and the rationale behind them) pre election were a completely different to model (and the rationale behind them) to the time of Gove.
User avatar
rebeccariots2
Prime Minister
Posts: 14038
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 8:20 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

May2015 ‏@May2015NS 1h1 hour ago
http://May2015.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Poll of Polls (and seats) 15 Jan:

Lab - 32.9% (280)
Con - 32.3% (273)
Ukp - 15.1% (4)
Lib - 6.8% (23)
Grn - 6.7% (1)
No info re SNP, Plaid and others?
Working on the wild side.
User avatar
RogerOThornhill
Prime Minister
Posts: 11118
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 10:18 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by RogerOThornhill »

Tubby Isaacs wrote: As ever, there's some hilarity.
He claimed that the heads of global web firms had a “distorted libertarian ideology” that made them “wholly detached from responsibility to governments and to the peoples that we democratically represent”.
There being the same global web firms he keeps courting.
That's quite wonderful given that Steve Hilton is married to Rachel Whetstone - head of communications at Google...and both were godparents to one Ivan Cameron.

Does he ever think before opening his mouth?
If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.
mikems
Minister of State
Posts: 490
Joined: Thu 28 Aug, 2014 12:47 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by mikems »

My own belief is that the market elements introduced by New Labour have made things a little easier for the Tories but it's not like they wouldn't have gone all out to privatise huge chunks of the public sector anyway. I know not everyone subscribes to that view.
These market elements weren't necessary, they were preferred. It was as much a dash at the left of the party and the unions - as well as an attempt to steal territory from the right - as it was about anything else. Part of triangulation.
mikems
Minister of State
Posts: 490
Joined: Thu 28 Aug, 2014 12:47 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by mikems »

As they were introducing market elements into public services, they were also keenly supporting EU efforts to establish market dominance of the economy. Pushing harder than other countries for 'reform' and implementing them far more thouroughly than other countries.
AnatolyKasparov
Prime Minister
Posts: 15672
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 9:26 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

rebeccariots2 wrote:
May2015 ‏@May2015NS 1h1 hour ago
http://May2015.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Poll of Polls (and seats) 15 Jan:

Lab - 32.9% (280)
Con - 32.3% (273)
Ukp - 15.1% (4)
Lib - 6.8% (23)
Grn - 6.7% (1)
No info re SNP, Plaid and others?
Given that Labour are only just ahead on seats, they are clearly losing quite a few to the SNP up there.

I would expect UKIP to get a few more seats with 15%, too - I think they could well get 5-6 MPs with 11-12% on polling day.
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
ohsocynical
Prime Minister
Posts: 10937
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 9:10 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

mikems wrote:
Britain is set to have the largest economy in Europe in the next 15 years and be richer than America, Chancellor George Osborne has said, should voters stick with his plan.
The man is off his head. Must be quality gear.
Once upon a time we'd have scoffed and said, 'What's he on'.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
StephenDolan
First Secretary of State
Posts: 3725
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 10:15 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by StephenDolan »

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:
May2015 ‏@May2015NS 1h1 hour ago
http://May2015.com" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Poll of Polls (and seats) 15 Jan:

Lab - 32.9% (280)
Con - 32.3% (273)
Ukp - 15.1% (4)
Lib - 6.8% (23)
Grn - 6.7% (1)
No info re SNP, Plaid and others?
Given that Labour are only just ahead on seats, they are clearly losing quite a few to the SNP up there.

I would expect UKIP to get a few more seats with 15%, too - I think they could well get 5-6 MPs with 11-12% on polling day.
Id be interested to hear your predictions AK!

Above looks like a nightmare scenario for the Conservatives and not much better for Labour (would the SNP have enough to form a coalition?). A minority government of 280 or less, how does that work?
ohsocynical
Prime Minister
Posts: 10937
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 9:10 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

rebeccariots2 wrote:I think it's time to get out and do something really useful ... Mr Riots is obviously going stir crazy from being cooped up while it pours down.

We just heard the end of Womans Hour on R4 with Jenny Murray announcing the next programme would have an item on 'online sperm donation'.

Cue Mr Riots shouting out from the kitchen - 'How do you do that then ... surely you'd gum up the internet?'

We're going now.

:lol: :lol: :lol:
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
User avatar
TechnicalEphemera
Speaker of the House
Posts: 2967
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:21 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

StephenDolan wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote: No info re SNP, Plaid and others?
Given that Labour are only just ahead on seats, they are clearly losing quite a few to the SNP up there.

I would expect UKIP to get a few more seats with 15%, too - I think they could well get 5-6 MPs with 11-12% on polling day.
Id be interested to hear your predictions AK!

Above looks like a nightmare scenario for the Conservatives and not much better for Labour (would the SNP have enough to form a coalition?). A minority government of 280 or less, how does that work?
Probably assumes 40 SNP seats, which means Lab/Lib/SNP is what you end up with. Interesting government but actually reasonably coherent. I think Clegg will be gone and you may see a LD split.

I actually think the SNP will fall back a bit on those figures. I seriously doubt UKIP will better 4 seats, AK underestimates how punitive FPTP is to smaller parties. Lib Dems will probably be a few seats down on that.

Incidentally once Cameron goes I think the Tory Party will be stuck in a vicious knife fight for his successor.
Release the Guardvarks.
letsskiptotheleft
Home Secretary
Posts: 1767
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 7:44 pm
Location: Neath Valley.

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by letsskiptotheleft »

Hello, there's a delightful read to be had at 'Conservative Home' 'A Candidiates Story' I can't link as I am on my phone, but if that's an example of the mood in some constituencies in Tory marginal seats then it's more an indicator than any poll.
Tish
Committee Member
Posts: 181
Joined: Tue 26 Aug, 2014 8:35 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by Tish »

ephemerid wrote:
Tish wrote:
StephenDolan wrote:- Targeted action on high-strength, low-cost alcohol which fuels binge drinking and does most harm to health, with a range of options on both price and bottle-size being explored;
- Standardised cigarette packaging to be introduced immediately to halt the industry’s increasingly sophisticated methods of recruiting new, young smokers; and a goal that children born in 2015 will become the first ‘smoke-free generation’.

Good ideas from Andy Burnham
Is there any actual evidence that making stronger alcohol drinks more expensive actually cuts binge drinking? I ask becouse in my experience, the kinds of drinks that usually get hammered by this sort of thing (the Tennants Supers and Mad Dog 20/20s of the drink world) don't tend to be drunk by binge drinkers anyway. Binge drinkers either go out and get drunk in clubs, which is already pretty expensive, or club together to buy spirits and neck it all before they start. To actually have an affect purely though pricing, you would have to raise prices so high that barely anybody would be able to afford alcohol.

In my experience these kind of policies often have the opposite effect of what was intended, I was a big drinker back in the days of the alchopop panic of the '90s, and when they hiked the prices up we just stopped drinking Hooch and started drinking vodka and orange instead. We ended up drinking more, becouse it made you less gassy. Surely it would make more sense to try and find out why so many people want to get so wasted all the time, rather than constantly tinkering with prices in this inefectual manner.

Hello Tish.

Speaking as a person who worked for a DAAT (Drug/Alcohol Action Team) for a now-defunct PCT, and as a recovering alcoholic who has worked with many AA people in various ways, I know a bit about this.

Binge drinkers come in many shapes and sizes. Most are probably not alcoholic in the accepted sense, but many alcoholics are or were binge drinkers.
I know many people who could stay away from a drink for months at a time, but one binge session could have them drinking 24/7 for days or weeks.

There is a lot of interesting neuro-physiological research which shows that some people, on exposure to certain substances, will develop a physical craving for it; that explains some people who become addicted to substances they are genetically or chemically susceptible to very quickly, and it might also explain why some families have a history of addiction.
There is also a wealth of evidence which shows that there is also an "addictive personality" which explains why many problem drinkers also often have other risky behaviours (gambling, drug use, sex addiction, eating disorders) and why treatment to address the primary dependency rarely works unless the underlying personality is treated.
There is also a lot of evidence which support the idea that childhood or other trauma leads to addiction; the 12-step fellowships and treatment centres have a significantly higher proportion of people who have such issues than is found in the general population.

Alcohol and some drugs also have an in-built quality which will lead to physical dependency if the use of the substance is regular and prolonged - as the body adjusts to frequent and copious use, it requires more in order to achieve the desired effect.
That's why people who are prescribed (often necessary) strong pain relief or sedatives can become dependent iatrogenically; that's what happened to people who took benzodiazepines (Valium, Librium, Mogadon) over years of treatment.

When you put all this together, people who may not (on the face of it) be at risk of dependency if they drink recklessly. The cost of alcohol in pubs and clubs is not affordable (in quantity) for many young people, and it has become commonplace for people to get tanked up on cheap spirits before they even go out.
The problem then is, that as you experienced, they are imbibing more alcohol than they realise; that in turn will result in more risky drinking and other behaviours, because alcohol is so disinhibiting.

Kids have experimented with getting off their tits since time immemorial; people who are fragile and have trouble coping with life have always sought escape; the problem these days is the ubiquity, variety, and easy access to alcohol.
Specialist doctors, treatment experts, and many people working in the field appear to agree that pricing will make a difference; some of them are also calling for supermarkets and drinking venues to curtail their opening/licensed hours.

Alcohol is a poison. That's not hyperbole, it's a fact. In very limited quantities, it's a good social lubricant and an enjoyable part of life.
But it is nevertheless a very dangerous substance - one senior policeman of my acquaintance who has worked in the field for years reckons if it was a new thing that came on the market now, it would not be approved for general use.

Nothing will change here because the government makes £10 Billion a year on duties; it wouldn't give that up in a hurry.

I don't know what the answer is, but pricing and accessibility has to part of it. Meanwhile, liver disease is the only major cause of death that is on the increase; fatalities have increased by 25% in less than a decade.
Pricing will not deter the chronic alcoholic. But it might help to cut excessive use (deliberate or accidental) in young people. so in my view it's worth a try.
Thanks for the response

I totally agree that if alcohol were discovered now it be banned instantly, although whether that would actually stop people using it is another matter, you only have to look at how many people use illegal drugs to see the limits of prohibition.

But as it is already a massively part of the culture of this country the question is how to manage it. There are always going to be people who have a problem with it, but I would have thought that putting more resources into treatment and medical research on the subject would be more useful than just a blanket price rise. For those who already have a problem it's not going to work, becouse the addiction will just make them get the extra money, wherever it comes from, in the same way that cutting benefits from drug addicts doesn't make them give up, it just makes them commit more crime to fund their habits.

In terms of young people just starting out on drinking it might have an effect, as they don't tend to have much money anyway, but I would have thought a better option would be to find a way to introduce young people to responsible drinking. When I was a kid you could sneak into pubs and get served quite easily from the age of about 14, and you sat quietly at the back, having a few beers but not getting plastered, becouse if you did they'd throw you out. By the time you were 18 you'd learnt to make a few drinks last the night. Young people now tell me its pretty impossible to get served in pubs if you're underage, so instead they go to parks and drink vodka (easily obtainable from older siblings, dodgy off licenses and scary blokes who hang around the park), drink themselves unconscious and get into all kinds of dangerous situations. Plus, when they do turn 18 binge drinking has already become part of their cultural understanding of alcohol.

I suppose my main problem with punitive pricing is that it only really affects the poor, and alcoholism and binge drinking are a problem across all social groups. So poor responsible drinkers will be hit, while wealthy binge drinkers will be relatively unaffected
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

mikems wrote:As they were introducing market elements into public services, they were also keenly supporting EU efforts to establish market dominance of the economy. Pushing harder than other countries for 'reform' and implementing them far more thouroughly than other countries.
But the biggest mistake, the Euro, is nothing to do with Britain, and was a "intellectual" solution to the problems of markets hammering their currencies. Countries joined who shouldn't have done, and their suffering from the imposed austerity and the monetary policy of the central bank. Not because Tony Blair made them deregulate their banks.

I can't recall many market-reforms that Britain's had forced on it by the EU.
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

RobertSnozers wrote:
mikems wrote:
My own belief is that the market elements introduced by New Labour have made things a little easier for the Tories but it's not like they wouldn't have gone all out to privatise huge chunks of the public sector anyway. I know not everyone subscribes to that view.
These market elements weren't necessary, they were preferred. It was as much a dash at the left of the party and the unions - as well as an attempt to steal territory from the right - as it was about anything else. Part of triangulation.
That was the mistake in my view - thinking that you could cherry pick from different ideologies without recognising that free-market ideologies are aimed at furthering the interests of some ludicrously powerful forces such as financial markets and global business who share power with no-one. If you give these people an inch they will take a mile, and if you give them enough rope they will hang us.
2006 is supposed to have started some kamikaze rush towards privatization which means Labour are just the same, or whatever, but in 2006-12 (ie the Lansley act) the amounts paid to private providers went up by £3bn, out of an overall increase in spending of £20bn or so. It was working at least well enough for the Tories to lie and say they wouldn't reorganize it. That's hardly making it easier for the Tories.

Same with education. You have to lie to make out Labour academies (which I've never supported) were like Gove ones. Biggest problem I saw with the old ones were that they got far too much money, because ministers were personally associated with them.
User avatar
rebeccariots2
Prime Minister
Posts: 14038
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 8:20 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

StephenDolan wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote: No info re SNP, Plaid and others?
Given that Labour are only just ahead on seats, they are clearly losing quite a few to the SNP up there.

I would expect UKIP to get a few more seats with 15%, too - I think they could well get 5-6 MPs with 11-12% on polling day.
Id be interested to hear your predictions AK!

Above looks like a nightmare scenario for the Conservatives and not much better for Labour (would the SNP have enough to form a coalition?). A minority government of 280 or less, how does that work?
I checked on the 2015 website and they had SNP on 46 seats. Yes, that's right, 46. I needed to go out for a brisk walk after seeing that.
Working on the wild side.
User avatar
ErnstRemarx
Secretary of State
Posts: 1280
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:04 pm
Location: Bury, in the frozen north of England

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by ErnstRemarx »

letsskiptotheleft wrote:Hello, there's a delightful read to be had at 'Conservative Home' 'A Candidiates Story' I can't link as I am on my phone, but if that's an example of the mood in some constituencies in Tory marginal seats then it's more an indicator than any poll.
Here you go:

http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolu ... lem-2.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Not read it yet.
User avatar
rebeccariots2
Prime Minister
Posts: 14038
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 8:20 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
StephenDolan wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote: Given that Labour are only just ahead on seats, they are clearly losing quite a few to the SNP up there.

I would expect UKIP to get a few more seats with 15%, too - I think they could well get 5-6 MPs with 11-12% on polling day.
Id be interested to hear your predictions AK!

Above looks like a nightmare scenario for the Conservatives and not much better for Labour (would the SNP have enough to form a coalition?). A minority government of 280 or less, how does that work?
Probably assumes 40 SNP seats, which means Lab/Lib/SNP is what you end up with. Interesting government but actually reasonably coherent. I think Clegg will be gone and you may see a LD split.

I actually think the SNP will fall back a bit on those figures. I seriously doubt UKIP will better 4 seats, AK underestimates how punitive FPTP is to smaller parties. Lib Dems will probably be a few seats down on that.

Incidentally once Cameron goes I think the Tory Party will be stuck in a vicious knife fight for his successor.
I thought if there were no overall majority Cameron gets first dibs at trying to form another coalition government? Am I wrong?
Working on the wild side.
ohsocynical
Prime Minister
Posts: 10937
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 9:10 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 7 mins7 minutes ago
The @IpsosMORI shares with changes on Dec
LAB: 34% (+5), CON 33% (+1), UKIP 11% (-2), GRN 8% (-1), LD 8% (-1).
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
User avatar
citizenJA
Prime Minister
Posts: 20648
Joined: Thu 11 Sep, 2014 12:22 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

Willow904 wrote:http://www.newstatesman.com/broadcast/2 ... ng-suicide

I stumbled across this article by accident when looking for something else (I was searching Stacey Dooley and Japan because I remembered her doing a documentary about their economic slump). It's fascinating. I had no idea the Samaritans had guidelines for reporting suicide. All the guidelines are very important I'm sure, the real case example of Bridgend and copy cat suicides made a lot of sense, but I can't help but wonder if the press feel they can't even mention suicide and welfare reforms in the same paragraph without falling foul of the "Avoid simplistic explanations for suicide" guideline.

Still, it's no excuse for the media though really, is it? I mean there's nothing to stop them asking the question "how does someone survive on nothing for three months when sanctioned" over and over again. Seriously, what do DWP thinks will happen when they withdraw every single penny of state support from someone for months at a time? Have they got any kind policy explanation that fills that gap in income that doesn't involve crime or charity?

Anyway, what I really wanted to comment on was how when I watched that documentary a couple of years ago I was appalled at the way homeless people were hidden away out of sight behind little curtains on the streets. Now, however, I'm started to think the Japanese are quite compassionate really, providing their homeless with not just permission to sleep on the streets, but with free tents too! Just contrast with here where the police have been taking blankets and tents away from homeless people and basically saying if they have no place of their own to sleep in, they're not allowed to sleep anywhere. If the UK is going through something similar to Japan, as much as I don't think Japan hasn't responded very well to their extended economic slump, we appear to be responding even worse to our own.
Well said! This is what I was getting at the other day when deflation comparisons were made between Japan & the UK. I've never lived in Japan but have had family who have. It's a different cultural ride entirely. I've read about the tent give-aways in Japan - I didn't mention suicide because I have more questions than I have answers. Deflation, economic hardship, increased Japanese suicide rates, if I'm not mistaken; though I've no idea if those suicide rates have tapered off or what now.

I agree with you, Japan's response to the economic crises isn't optimum. But as you point out, the UK's response to homelessness & economic upheaval is frightening. Squatting in empty homes was made illegal a few years ago - that law hadn't been changed since Elizabethan times - people die outside in the cold.
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Greens confirm Rupert Read as Transport spokesman.

He's not got a thick skin. He's likely to blow what should be a strong subject for them- he blew up and stalked off when Tim Fenton was critical of him.
User avatar
citizenJA
Prime Minister
Posts: 20648
Joined: Thu 11 Sep, 2014 12:22 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

rebeccariots2 wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:
StephenDolan wrote: Id be interested to hear your predictions AK!

Above looks like a nightmare scenario for the Conservatives and not much better for Labour (would the SNP have enough to form a coalition?). A minority government of 280 or less, how does that work?
Probably assumes 40 SNP seats, which means Lab/Lib/SNP is what you end up with. Interesting government but actually reasonably coherent. I think Clegg will be gone and you may see a LD split.

I actually think the SNP will fall back a bit on those figures. I seriously doubt UKIP will better 4 seats, AK underestimates how punitive FPTP is to smaller parties. Lib Dems will probably be a few seats down on that.

Incidentally once Cameron goes I think the Tory Party will be stuck in a vicious knife fight for his successor.
I thought if there were no overall majority Cameron gets first dibs at trying to form another coalition government? Am I wrong?
Just get a majority, Labour, come on, Labour! A majority!
User avatar
citizenJA
Prime Minister
Posts: 20648
Joined: Thu 11 Sep, 2014 12:22 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Greens confirm Rupert Read as Transport spokesman.

He's not got a thick skin. He's likely to blow what should be a strong subject for them- he blew up and stalked off when Tim Fenton was critical of him.
That's not lucky. I'm sorry to hear that.
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Another thing about the Greens.

They often talk down the importance of economic growth. I rather think we need that to help us pay off the debts. Without it, they're going to weigh very heavy. And creditors will charge a premium accordingly.
User avatar
TechnicalEphemera
Speaker of the House
Posts: 2967
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:21 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

citizenJA wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote: Probably assumes 40 SNP seats, which means Lab/Lib/SNP is what you end up with. Interesting government but actually reasonably coherent. I think Clegg will be gone and you may see a LD split.

I actually think the SNP will fall back a bit on those figures. I seriously doubt UKIP will better 4 seats, AK underestimates how punitive FPTP is to smaller parties. Lib Dems will probably be a few seats down on that.

Incidentally once Cameron goes I think the Tory Party will be stuck in a vicious knife fight for his successor.
I thought if there were no overall majority Cameron gets first dibs at trying to form another coalition government? Am I wrong?
Just get a majority, Labour, come on, Labour! A majority!
He gets first crack at trying anyway, but assuming no dice from the SNP he has nowhere to go on those figures.

Labour can cut a deal and force a vote of no confidence, giving them 2 weeks to form a government.
Release the Guardvarks.
User avatar
RogerOThornhill
Prime Minister
Posts: 11118
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 10:18 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by RogerOThornhill »

Tubby Isaacs wrote: Same with education. You have to lie to make out Labour academies (which I've never supported) were like Gove ones. Biggest problem I saw with the old ones were that they got far too much money, because ministers were personally associated with them.
Well...there is another point to be made about the pre-2010 academies and that is that sponsors actually had to stump up their own cash to run a school like sponsors are supposed to do.

But that all changed (it's in Adonis' book but I can't recall whether it was pre or post-election) and no cash goes in from 'sponsors' - all they are now are managers - we've swapped one set of accountable bureaucrats for another set of unaccountable ones. But then you knew that already.
If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.
StephenDolan
First Secretary of State
Posts: 3725
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 10:15 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by StephenDolan »

rebeccariots2 wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:
StephenDolan wrote: Id be interested to hear your predictions AK!

Above looks like a nightmare scenario for the Conservatives and not much better for Labour (would the SNP have enough to form a coalition?). A minority government of 280 or less, how does that work?
Probably assumes 40 SNP seats, which means Lab/Lib/SNP is what you end up with. Interesting government but actually reasonably coherent. I think Clegg will be gone and you may see a LD split.

I actually think the SNP will fall back a bit on those figures. I seriously doubt UKIP will better 4 seats, AK underestimates how punitive FPTP is to smaller parties. Lib Dems will probably be a few seats down on that.

Incidentally once Cameron goes I think the Tory Party will be stuck in a vicious knife fight for his successor.
I thought if there were no overall majority Cameron gets first dibs at trying to form another coalition government? Am I wrong?
It's my understanding you're correct. Even if the Conservatives have less seats. As a purely hypothetical scenario, I'd be interested to see what happened with

Lab 300
Con 280
Lib 20
Tubby Isaacs
Prime Minister
Posts: 9949
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 11:18 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

citizenJA wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:Greens confirm Rupert Read as Transport spokesman.

He's not got a thick skin. He's likely to blow what should be a strong subject for them- he blew up and stalked off when Tim Fenton was critical of him.
That's not lucky. I'm sorry to hear that.
Tim Fenton pulled him up on some HS2 stuff he wrote, including swallowing some dross for Mark Littlewood and pals on its cost.

Maybe he's had some media training now.
User avatar
citizenJA
Prime Minister
Posts: 20648
Joined: Thu 11 Sep, 2014 12:22 pm

Re: Thursday 15th January 2015

Post by citizenJA »

WelshIan wrote:With regard to the vote on the Charter of Responsibility, Danny Alexander makes it clear that Labour did not vote for £30 billion of cuts, Labour voted to clear the structural deficit in the required timeframe. As has been noted previously, Labour's plan is completely different to the Conservative plan.
I am proud of the progress we have made in this Parliament and welcome the widespread support this Charter for Budget Responsibility has received across the House, but it is important to be clear what this charter does and does not do. It sets out that the Government of the day must have a plan to eliminate the structural deficit within three years and get our national debt falling as a percentage of GDP by 2016-17. Of course it does not prescribe what specific steps various parties would actually take to meet the commitments that the charter imposes.
The quote is from Hansard.
Outstanding. Thank you, WelshIan.
Locked