Wednesday 4th February 2015

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 2:43 am

Morning.

The Ashcroft Scottish Poll

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/sc ... #more-7456" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 6:31 am

HindleA wrote:Morning.

The Ashcroft Scottish Poll

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/sc ... #more-7456" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Interesting, thanks.

Post by **refitman** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 7:18 am

Morning. Conservatives and Labour tied on Yougov:

Latest YouGov / The Sun results 3rd February -

Con 33%, (nc)
Lab 33%, (-2)
LD 7%, (nc)
UKIP 14%, (nc)
GRN 7%; (+1)

APP -21

Post by **adam** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 8:12 am

StephenDolan wrote:
HindleA wrote:Morning.

The Ashcroft Scottish Poll

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/sc ... #more-7456" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Interesting, thanks.

Not good numbers, but... I think Ashcroft is playing his game well by generating headlines of wipe out through focussing on what, from referendum figures, should be the SNP's best performing seats, and I think he's also playing his game well but slyly trailing suggestions that his polling was not necessarily going to stand up with the national Scottish polls even though on headline terms he knew that it did.

I still think England is where we'll stop the tories being the largest party in parliament.

Toby Latimer · Post by **Toby Latimer** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 8:22 am

How does the Ashcroft polling translate into actual seats and fit in with the poll yesterday showing a 6% lead ?

Is Kevin Maguire right ?

: ScreenShot00161.jpg (38.5 KiB) Viewed 16301 times

Toby Latimer · Post by **Toby Latimer** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 8:29 am

In other news -:

BBC Breakfast news very upbeat this morning, half of us are going to get cancer, and the other half will get type 2 diabetes,

The Graun have ; Changes in the way councils across England deal with homelessness mean that hundreds of thousands of people facing eviction have been hidden from official figures.

It's widely reported another benefit related suicide ; Man killed himself after benefit changes left him owing £800

Yet the Tories are proud of Welfare state is now growing at its slowest rate since 1948

But there's more ...

"George Osborne, the Chancellor, has pledged to cut the welfare bill by a further £12billion if the Conservatives win the general election.
Mr Osborne has also pledged to freeze benefits for two years after the next election to help save a further £3billion.
Mr Cameron has already put welfare reform at the heart of his election campaign by pledging to reduce the annual benefits cap to £23,000 as the first act of a new Conservative Government"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... -1948.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 8:41 am

Morning All

Truth is, according to the Tories own figures they are spending the same now on "welfare" as Labour were in 2010 after the worst economic crash in living memory. I imagine IDS "pledged" to cut it and has failed.

Pathetic.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 8:45 am

Yep Cameron said in 2010 that he would cut £18 billion from the benefits bill.

So, they have failed. Despite all the suffering and indignity heaped on the vulnerable, they have failed.

danesclose · Post by **danesclose** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 8:58 am

RobertSnozers wrote:
Toby Latimer wrote:How does the Ashcroft polling translate into actual seats and fit in with the poll yesterday showing a 6% lead ?

Is Kevin Maguire right ?

It's pretty apocolyptic. In 15 of 16 seats polled (Labour seats where there were strong Yes votes, and two 'interesting' LibDem seats) SNP is ahead. Some of these had massive Labour leads in 2010. Moreover, of those who say they are going to vote SNP, 68% say there's no way they'll vote Labour, which includes switchers from Labour to SNP. Douglas Alexander is set to lose his seat on this reckoning.

The slight upside is that in a number of those seats it wouldn't take much of a swing back to Labour for them to hang on, and there are around a third of SNP supporters in those seats who would consider switching back.

There's a high number who apparently want to see a Labour SNP coalition in Westminster, which is surprising given that a Labour wipeout in Scotland would mean a Tory government and Scottish independence, but there it is.

Unrelated to the polling, and concerning the ridiculous Yesser notion that Labour and the Tories are cooking up coalition plans, there now seems to be a view in government circles that a 'national unity government' of Labour and Tory would be the only way to secure a government with a parliamentary majority. This doesn't mean anyone really thinks it would happen. For one thing, it would destroy a lot of both parties' core support overnight. No-one bought that 'together in the national interest' nonsense in 2010, they certainly won't buy it now. Will they?

Morning all. Not entirely sure of the overall conclusions one can draw from this - as others have pointed out the sample seats are in areas that returned a lot of Yes votes in the referendum. I think Ashcroft has been a bit "fly" with the seats he looked at.
He's also completely inaccurate in at least one seat, Gordon, which has a Lib Dem MP

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/go ... e-71626413" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Toby Latimer · Post by **Toby Latimer** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 9:22 am

New Statesman have this graphic

: ScreenShot00170.jpg (22.82 KiB) Viewed 16206 times

: ScreenShot00171.jpg (20.11 KiB) Viewed 16206 times

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 9:33 am

As a jobcentre adviser, I got ‘brownie points’ for cruelty
Former jobcentre adviser Angela Neville has written a play to expose the harsh reality of the benefits sanctions regime
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015 ... la-neville
... She is one of many former jobcentre workers speaking out with revelations about a “culture” of targets and accelerating pressure on staff to shift people off benefits, (repeatedly denied by the Department for Work and Pensions) often by the overuse of arbitrary and harsh sanctions that mean people’s benefits can be stopped for weeks and sometimes months. Like others, Neville says the new regime rolled out by the government as part of its “back-to-work” drives and budget cuts has caused enormous stress for claimants but also for the staff expected to implement them. Some advisers’ stories have been officially documented, such as that of John Longden, a former jobcentre official who gave written evidence to the ongoing parliamentary committee investigation into sanctions of “hit squads” setting claimants up to fail. Today, work and pensions minister, Esther McVey, will be grilled by the committee on the increased use of benefit sanctions...

Editing to add from BTL:

VSLVSL 40m ago
An excellent article about an interesting work on the subject of the brutality of this government.

But, frankly I'm tired of reading articles about this subject from a newspaper which supports the government which does this damage to people - The Guardian should either put-up or shut-up.

Either you oppose a government which intentionally and systematically sets out to damage people or you don't.

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 9:36 am

Morning all.

So Ashcroft has only published polls for seats where he knew the SNP were doing well anyway? Well, what a surprise.

Question is, did he also poll areas where results were not so clear cut and decide not to issue those ones, wouldn't put it past him. Still a lot of water to flow under a lot of bridges between now and May.

Maeght · Post by **Maeght** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 9:39 am

Hello everybody.
This is my first post - anywhere - although I have been enjoying reading this forum for some time.

I am incensed today about a lot of things and particularly about the glee with which the press, particularly the Guardian, has jumped on more negative comments about Labour. What made me really mad was the quote on Andrew Sparrow’s blog from Simon Woodroffe, who was interviewed on Newsnight last night (given up watching it)

‘Actually, I think the fat cats, generally, sometimes it annoys me, but they pay their taxes, you know. Actually, they are paying over 50% a lot of the time with this new cap on national insurance. The world is right as it is.’ ( my bold).

Complacent and patronising are the only two printable adjectives I can think of to describe this comment. How on earth can the world be right as it is?

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 9:39 am

I'm going to have to avoid Today until the election, it's making my commute extremely stressful listening to such partisan bullshit.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 9:41 am

Toby Latimer wrote:New Statesman have this graphic

ScreenShot00170.jpg
ScreenShot00171.jpg

I think that they are overestimating the number of seats the Tories will get in England. I also think the next Ashcroft poll will show less strong SNP votes as he looks at their weaker areas ( he is following the start at the top and work down approach).

However on that basis the only government that works is Labour/SNP and I think that is where we will be post 2015.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 9:46 am

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
Toby Latimer wrote:New Statesman have this graphic

ScreenShot00170.jpg
ScreenShot00171.jpg

I think that they are overestimating the number of seats the Tories will get in England. I also think the next Ashcroft poll will show less strong SNP votes as he looks at their weaker areas ( he is following the start at the top and work down approach).

However on that basis the only government that works is Labour/SNP and I think that is where we will be post 2015.

Tories plus yellow Tories plus ultra Tories is still off a majority.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 9:46 am

Maeght wrote:Hello everybody.
This is my first post - anywhere - although I have been enjoying reading this forum for some time.

I am incensed today about a lot of things and particularly about the glee with which the press, particularly the Guardian, has jumped on more negative comments about Labour. What made me really mad was the quote on Andrew Sparrow’s blog from Simon Woodroffe, who was interviewed on Newsnight last night (given up watching it)

‘Actually, I think the fat cats, generally, sometimes it annoys me, but they pay their taxes, you know. Actually, they are paying over 50% a lot of the time with this new cap on national insurance. The world is right as it is.’ ( my bold).

Complacent and patronising are the only two printable adjectives I can think of to describe this comment. How on earth can the world be right as it is?

Welcome Maeght. Saw you lurking a bit yesterday ... doing some thanking .... very glad you have decided to write above the parapet. Yes - agree with you about the press tactics being really really tiring. I had decided - after looking at the wall to wall G articles with some sort of dig or downer on Labour - that I wasn't going to post on anything to do with business or polls today. It just feels like endless churning of the same stuff. I imagine it also turns off a lot of other people - no wonder so many people say they aren't interested in - or find politics a turn off.

Toby Latimer · Post by **Toby Latimer** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 9:47 am

Esther McVey answering questions (using that term loosely) at W&P Committee

http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/Playe ... ngId=17193" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Toby Latimer · Post by **Toby Latimer** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 9:52 am

Maeght wrote:Hello everybody.
This is my first post - anywhere - although I have been enjoying reading this forum for some time.

I am incensed today about a lot of things and particularly about the glee with which the press, particularly the Guardian, has jumped on more negative comments about Labour. What made me really mad was the quote on Andrew Sparrow’s blog from Simon Woodroffe, who was interviewed on Newsnight last night (given up watching it)

‘Actually, I think the fat cats, generally, sometimes it annoys me, but they pay their taxes, you know. Actually, they are paying over 50% a lot of the time with this new cap on national insurance. The world is right as it is.’ ( my bold).

Complacent and patronising are the only two printable adjectives I can think of to describe this comment. How on earth can the world be right as it is?

How-do

I've given up on Sparrow, for the time being at least. If it wasn't for the cartoons and the Society section (which is buried away) I wouldn't bother at all

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 9:52 am

StephenDolan wrote:I'm going to have to avoid Today until the election, it's making my commute extremely stressful listening to such partisan bullshit.

Yes, the "Ed Balls had a memory loss after coming from a function" is hardly earth-shattering news but gets pounced on as if it's of great significance.

Three more months of this crap...

mikems · Post by **mikems** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 9:56 am

Welcome Maeght!

I think part of the point of Today, Guardian, Newsnight is to demoralise people and to put us off politics. As well as pumping out massive amounts of pro-rich, pro-status quo propaganda, of course.

I gave up most of it years ago and feel a lot better informed and happier as a result.

mikems · Post by **mikems** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 10:03 am

'I don't understand how they have the Tories winning more seats on a lower share of the vote'

And UKIP going from 4 or 5% to 14%. And Labour's vote going up from last time.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 10:05 am

AS is reporting that Sir Martin Gilbert has died.

Sir John Chilcot is giving evidence now.

He says Sir Martin Gilbert, the historian, Churchill biographer and member of the inquiry panel, died last night. He was a kind and generous colleague, and it was a privilege to work with him, he says.

Sir Martin Gilbert, the historian and member of the Inquiry inquiry, died last night, MPs have been told. He had been ill for a while.

mikems · Post by **mikems** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 10:05 am

Does anyone know enough about the methodology of the pollsters regarding those who did not vote last time? Are they ignored or weighted as less likely to vote in some way?

I am thinking about the victims of bedroom tax, benefits sanctions etc who may not have voted last time, but who may be very keen to do something about their treatment.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 10:25 am

mikems wrote:Does anyone know enough about the methodology of the pollsters regarding those who did not vote last time? Are they ignored or weighted as less likely to vote in some way?

I am thinking about the victims of bedroom tax, benefits sanctions etc who may not have voted last time, but who may be very keen to do something about their treatment.

Over a million going to the Trussell Trust food banks. Quite the political force if registered and willing to vote.

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 10:26 am

Sad news about Martin Gilbert.

Welcome Maeght. Help yourself to biscuits.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 10:28 am

mikems wrote:Does anyone know enough about the methodology of the pollsters regarding those who did not vote last time? Are they ignored or weighted as less likely to vote in some way?

I am thinking about the victims of bedroom tax, benefits sanctions etc who may not have voted last time, but who may be very keen to do something about their treatment.

Depends on the pollsters.

In general they weight by likelihood to vote, don't know if this is determined by stated intention, or past recalled voting or a combination.

Pollsters like ICM reallocate on the basis of past voting and so previous non voters are clearly ignored here. This is of course why ICM boost Tories and Lib Dems at the expense of Labour, UKIP and possibly Greens.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 10:32 am

mikems wrote:Does anyone know enough about the methodology of the pollsters regarding those who did not vote last time? Are they ignored or weighted as less likely to vote in some way?

I am thinking about the victims of bedroom tax, benefits sanctions etc who may not have voted last time, but who may be very keen to do something about their treatment.

Anthony Wells wrote about this last week:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9103" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

All companies weight by simple demographics like age and gender, but more controversial is political weighting – using past vote or party identification to make sure the sample is politically representative of Britain. The rights and wrongs of this deserve an article in their own right, but in terms of comparing pollsters most companies weight by past vote from May 2010, YouGov weight by party ID from May 2010, Populus by current party ID, MORI and Opinium don’t use political weighting at all. This means MORI’s samples are sometimes a bit more Laboury than other phone companies (but see their likelihood to vote filter below), Opinium have speculated that their comparatively high level of UKIP support may be because they don’t weight politically and Populus tend to heavily weight down UKIP and the Greens.

This & lots more on that link.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 10:59 am

mikems wrote:'I don't understand how they have the Tories winning more seats on a lower share of the vote'

And UKIP going from 4 or 5% to 14%. And Labour's vote going up from last time.

They have the Nats winning basically every Scottish seat, that's why.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 11:02 am

Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP 29m29 minutes ago
Is a Tory-SNP accommodation, based on massive further devolution to all parts of the UK, really so unthinkable?

I think another Tory govt - of any formulation - heralds the break up of the union within the next 10 to 15 years. Maybe Hannan is only concerned with the next 5 years and wringing as much as they can out of it.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 11:07 am

rebeccariots2 wrote:
Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP 29m29 minutes ago
Is a Tory-SNP accommodation, based on massive further devolution to all parts of the UK, really so unthinkable?
I think another Tory govt - of any formulation - heralds the break up of the union within the next 10 to 15 years. Maybe Hannan is only concerned with the next 5 years and wringing as much as they can out of it.

A Tory SNP accommodation would break both parties.

The Tories want Scotland and the SNP would be destroyed if they collaborated with a Tory government.

Hannan has realised the Tories are out and is desperately inventing fantasy scenarios to save them. The whole SNP campaign is vote for us, we will go into government with Labour and keep them left wing. Any suggestion they would do otherwise will kill them.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 11:08 am

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
mikems wrote:'I don't understand how they have the Tories winning more seats on a lower share of the vote'

And UKIP going from 4 or 5% to 14%. And Labour's vote going up from last time.
They have the Nats winning basically every Scottish seat, that's why.

Still think they are underestimating the collapse of the Tory vote in England. That UKIP vote is really going to hurt in the marginals.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 11:09 am

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:
Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP 29m29 minutes ago
Is a Tory-SNP accommodation, based on massive further devolution to all parts of the UK, really so unthinkable?
I think another Tory govt - of any formulation - heralds the break up of the union within the next 10 to 15 years. Maybe Hannan is only concerned with the next 5 years and wringing as much as they can out of it.
A Tory SNP accommodation would break both parties.

The Tories want Scotland and the SNP would be destroyed if they collaborated with a Tory government.

Hannan has realised the Tories are out and is desperately inventing fantasy scenarios to save them. The whole SNP campaign is vote for us, we will go into government with Labour and keep them left wing. Any suggestion they would do otherwise will kill them.

Actually, probably not that bit - they have ruled out any sort of actual coalition.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 11:25 am

Another poor soul 'Hit by a train' between Maidenhead and Slough this morning.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 11:30 am

THE Heights School consultation has been delayed as the Education Funding Agency (EFA) announced today that a fifth site is to be considered for the school’s permanent home.

Councillor Jo Lovelock, leader of Reading Borough Council, said: “Why they have suddenly dropped this into the application when they have been looking at sites for the last 18 months I do not know.
"Frankly to delay the consultation at this stage when there is so much community concern about the school is beyond me. It is a secrecy thing again that really gets to me and I think it smacks of a desire to delay the decision until the summer so it does not get in the way of the General Election.”

h[url]ttp://www.readingchronicle.co.uk/news/reading ... sultation/[/url]

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 11:32 am

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote: I think another Tory govt - of any formulation - heralds the break up of the union within the next 10 to 15 years. Maybe Hannan is only concerned with the next 5 years and wringing as much as they can out of it.
A Tory SNP accommodation would break both parties.

The Tories want Scotland and the SNP would be destroyed if they collaborated with a Tory government.

Hannan has realised the Tories are out and is desperately inventing fantasy scenarios to save them. The whole SNP campaign is vote for us, we will go into government with Labour and keep them left wing. Any suggestion they would do otherwise will kill them.
Actually, probably not that bit - they have ruled out any sort of actual coalition.

Sturgeon is actively pushing that line, Labour government dependent on the SNP. Whatever she says now post election she will have no choice but to either go into coalition with Labour or negotiate a long term confidence and supply deal (not day by day) - if the arithmetic works.

Failure to do so will destroy her party - she knows it, her voters know it, Labour knows it.

SNP will be campaigning for it on the doorstep.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 11:34 am

Ashcroft:

What are the implications for the wider general election battleground? If a swing to the SNP of 21%, the smallest in this range, were to be repeated across the board next May it would endanger 35 of Labour’s 41 seats in Scotland. But we cannot assume such a uniform swing. Most of the seats in this survey are in areas which returned a particularly strong yes vote in September, where the SNP attraction will naturally be greater; in future rounds of research we may find a different pattern where support for independence was lower. Even so, the prospect of losing heartland seats will be a blow to Labour’s hopes: every seat they lose in Scotland means another they have to win from the Conservatives in England, while the national polls could not be much narrower.

But as ever, it is vital to remember that these polls are a snapshot, not a prediction. The Labour majorities in some of these seats are such that even a swing of this magnitude has not put the SNP far ahead – for example, just three points in Glasgow South West and Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill, and six points in Glasgow North West.

(my bold)

Fancy returning an increased SNP vote share when you only poll those seats that had a huge Yes vote in the Indy ref.......

I think this will give any complacent Lab MPs a huge kick up the arse to up their game (yes I know, cliche time) but to go into panic mode on the basis of these very highly selective results would be pointless.

Remember how the Nats were convinced they had won the Indy Ref before the votes were counted ?

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 11:36 am

But is any sort of coalition in Labour's interest? Doubtful if it is either in the interests of the UK or any prospect of a Labour recovery in Scotland if they *are* crushed there in May.

Looking to the future north of the border, I think all three "main" parties are going to have to become "Bavarianised" (the Greens already have a separate Scottish party, of course)

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 11:38 am

ohsocynical wrote:Another poor soul 'Hit by a train' between Maidenhead and Slough this morning.

While I always think of the others who have to deal with the aftermath - the railway staff, emergency services, family - I always mourn for the person pushed beyond their limits. There, but for the grace of god, go I (and I've come damned close more than once).

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 11:46 am

Scotland didn’t kill off the United Kingdom – but Cameron would
By Gordon Brown

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... nstitution

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 11:49 am

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:
Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP 29m29 minutes ago
Is a Tory-SNP accommodation, based on massive further devolution to all parts of the UK, really so unthinkable?
I think another Tory govt - of any formulation - heralds the break up of the union within the next 10 to 15 years. Maybe Hannan is only concerned with the next 5 years and wringing as much as they can out of it.
A Tory SNP accommodation would break both parties.

The Tories want Scotland and the SNP would be destroyed if they collaborated with a Tory government.

Hannan has realised the Tories are out and is desperately inventing fantasy scenarios to save them. The whole SNP campaign is vote for us, we will go into government with Labour and keep them left wing. Any suggestion they would do otherwise will kill them.

I know the SNP won't go into any kind of deal with the Tories - because it really would blow their support. But should the collapse of Labour in Scotland mean - along with less than required gains in England and Wales - that the Tories get back in either as minority or coalition gov - or with Lib Dem rump, DUP support - I think that's the union blown. Scotland will be clamoring for another referendum - and the mood will change in Wales too because the Tory welfare and public spending cuts are just so punitive and damaging - and there's precious little Tory concern or action to support investment and regeneration here.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 11:51 am

Rowson

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... 5-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 11:54 am

David Hencke retweeted
ExaroNews ‏@ExaroNews 8m8 minutes ago
New #CSAinquiry panel to be in place by end of March, to be led by female judge from New Zealand.

David Hencke retweeted
ExaroNews ‏@ExaroNews 3m3 minutes ago
Theresa May has given #CSAinquiry statutory powers, as she will tell Parliament at 12.30pm.

David Hencke retweeted
ExaroNews ‏@ExaroNews 11m11 minutes ago
Theresa May has decided to dissolve #CSAinquiry panel, well-placed sources have told Exaro.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 11:59 am

teresa pearce ‏@tpearce003 7m7 minutes ago
Summary of today's DWP Select Committee " Esther McVey says black is white"

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 12:02 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:But is any sort of coalition in Labour's interest? Doubtful if it is either in the interests of the UK or any prospect of a Labour recovery in Scotland if they *are* crushed there in May.

Looking to the future north of the border, I think all three "main" parties are going to have to become "Bavarianised" (the Greens already have a separate Scottish party, of course)

SNP would be confidence and supply with Labour not full coalition wouldn't they? Not sure even that lesser deal will play well in RUK ... It certainly doesn't give me a warm sense of optimism.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 12:12 pm

Sorry it's the Guardian folks but I've been waiting for this news to break. And it's not done yet!

The death rate in England and Wales is around a third higher than normal for this time of year, official figures show, as the winter freeze tightens its grip on large swaths of Britain.

Some 28,800 deaths were registered in the fortnight ending 23 January, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is 32% higher than the average for that period over the previous five years (21,859).

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015 ... r-cold-flu

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 12:14 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:But is any sort of coalition in Labour's interest? Doubtful if it is either in the interests of the UK or any prospect of a Labour recovery in Scotland if they *are* crushed there in May.

Looking to the future north of the border, I think all three "main" parties are going to have to become "Bavarianised" (the Greens already have a separate Scottish party, of course)

Yes, a coalition is in Labours interest if it is stable, the Tory party is set to implode if they lose (and possibly also if they win). I think that alone may drive formal coalition - Alex Salmond as foreign secretary

I can't see Labour accepting confidence and supply.

North of the border the shine will come off the SNP eventually.

From a strategy perspective a Tory meltdown might drive a snap election, but for that to happen the Tories will have to believe that they have definitely lost.

I see no issue with Labour/SNP fighting in Scotland but governing in the UK, even the party leaders will be different (Salmond and Miliband - Sturgeon and Murphy). Yes I know Salmond isn't technically leader but he will be defacto leader in Westminster).

Also the SNP must realise they have zero chance of winning another referendum.

Post by **refitman** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 12:18 pm

@Maeght - hello. *waves*

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 12:25 pm

Speaker needed to get involved much earlier in that PMQs. What a racket! Never attempted to answer once. Won't be able to evade like that in the leaders' debates so it's just as well he won't be doing them.

Welcome Maeght. Feel free to pitch in when you want.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 04 Feb, 2015 12:27 pm

The former prime minister warns his successor not to assume the UK will survive. He writes: “There is a myth that the union can easily survive this new polarisation between Scotland and England because it is held together by longstanding bonds and traditions. But what may have been true in the aftermath of two world wars has given way to a new century where none of our ancient institutions are strong enough or popular enough on their own to bind us together.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... g-uk-apart

I do admire Brown. And he's so right. But it's not just happening with Scotland v UK. It's across all of society.