FlyTheNest

HindleA wrote:Morning.

The Ashcroft Scottish Poll

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/sc ... #more-7456" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

StephenDolan wrote:

HindleA wrote:Morning.

The Ashcroft Scottish Poll

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/02/sc ... #more-7456" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Interesting, thanks.

RobertSnozers wrote:

Toby Latimer wrote:How does the Ashcroft polling translate into actual seats and fit in with the poll yesterday showing a 6% lead ?

Is Kevin Maguire right ?

It's pretty apocolyptic. In 15 of 16 seats polled (Labour seats where there were strong Yes votes, and two 'interesting' LibDem seats) SNP is ahead. Some of these had massive Labour leads in 2010. Moreover, of those who say they are going to vote SNP, 68% say there's no way they'll vote Labour, which includes switchers from Labour to SNP. Douglas Alexander is set to lose his seat on this reckoning.

The slight upside is that in a number of those seats it wouldn't take much of a swing back to Labour for them to hang on, and there are around a third of SNP supporters in those seats who would consider switching back.

There's a high number who apparently want to see a Labour SNP coalition in Westminster, which is surprising given that a Labour wipeout in Scotland would mean a Tory government and Scottish independence, but there it is.

Unrelated to the polling, and concerning the ridiculous Yesser notion that Labour and the Tories are cooking up coalition plans, there now seems to be a view in government circles that a 'national unity government' of Labour and Tory would be the only way to secure a government with a parliamentary majority. This doesn't mean anyone really thinks it would happen. For one thing, it would destroy a lot of both parties' core support overnight. No-one bought that 'together in the national interest' nonsense in 2010, they certainly won't buy it now. Will they?

As a jobcentre adviser, I got ‘brownie points’ for cruelty
Former jobcentre adviser Angela Neville has written a play to expose the harsh reality of the benefits sanctions regime
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015 ... la-neville
... She is one of many former jobcentre workers speaking out with revelations about a “culture” of targets and accelerating pressure on staff to shift people off benefits, (repeatedly denied by the Department for Work and Pensions) often by the overuse of arbitrary and harsh sanctions that mean people’s benefits can be stopped for weeks and sometimes months. Like others, Neville says the new regime rolled out by the government as part of its “back-to-work” drives and budget cuts has caused enormous stress for claimants but also for the staff expected to implement them. Some advisers’ stories have been officially documented, such as that of John Longden, a former jobcentre official who gave written evidence to the ongoing parliamentary committee investigation into sanctions of “hit squads” setting claimants up to fail. Today, work and pensions minister, Esther McVey, will be grilled by the committee on the increased use of benefit sanctions...

VSLVSL 40m ago
An excellent article about an interesting work on the subject of the brutality of this government.

But, frankly I'm tired of reading articles about this subject from a newspaper which supports the government which does this damage to people - The Guardian should either put-up or shut-up.

Either you oppose a government which intentionally and systematically sets out to damage people or you don't.

Toby Latimer wrote:New Statesman have this graphic

ScreenShot00170.jpg

ScreenShot00171.jpg

TechnicalEphemera wrote:

Toby Latimer wrote:New Statesman have this graphic

ScreenShot00170.jpg

ScreenShot00171.jpg

I think that they are overestimating the number of seats the Tories will get in England. I also think the next Ashcroft poll will show less strong SNP votes as he looks at their weaker areas ( he is following the start at the top and work down approach).

However on that basis the only government that works is Labour/SNP and I think that is where we will be post 2015.

Maeght wrote:Hello everybody.
This is my first post - anywhere - although I have been enjoying reading this forum for some time.

I am incensed today about a lot of things and particularly about the glee with which the press, particularly the Guardian, has jumped on more negative comments about Labour. What made me really mad was the quote on Andrew Sparrow’s blog from Simon Woodroffe, who was interviewed on Newsnight last night (given up watching it)

‘Actually, I think the fat cats, generally, sometimes it annoys me, but they pay their taxes, you know. Actually, they are paying over 50% a lot of the time with this new cap on national insurance. The world is right as it is.’ ( my bold).

Complacent and patronising are the only two printable adjectives I can think of to describe this comment. How on earth can the world be right as it is?

Maeght wrote:Hello everybody.
This is my first post - anywhere - although I have been enjoying reading this forum for some time.

I am incensed today about a lot of things and particularly about the glee with which the press, particularly the Guardian, has jumped on more negative comments about Labour. What made me really mad was the quote on Andrew Sparrow’s blog from Simon Woodroffe, who was interviewed on Newsnight last night (given up watching it)

‘Actually, I think the fat cats, generally, sometimes it annoys me, but they pay their taxes, you know. Actually, they are paying over 50% a lot of the time with this new cap on national insurance. The world is right as it is.’ ( my bold).

Complacent and patronising are the only two printable adjectives I can think of to describe this comment. How on earth can the world be right as it is?

StephenDolan wrote:I'm going to have to avoid Today until the election, it's making my commute extremely stressful listening to such partisan bullshit.

Sir John Chilcot is giving evidence now.

He says Sir Martin Gilbert, the historian, Churchill biographer and member of the inquiry panel, died last night. He was a kind and generous colleague, and it was a privilege to work with him, he says.

Sir Martin Gilbert, the historian and member of the Inquiry inquiry, died last night, MPs have been told. He had been ill for a while.

mikems wrote:Does anyone know enough about the methodology of the pollsters regarding those who did not vote last time? Are they ignored or weighted as less likely to vote in some way?

I am thinking about the victims of bedroom tax, benefits sanctions etc who may not have voted last time, but who may be very keen to do something about their treatment.

mikems wrote:Does anyone know enough about the methodology of the pollsters regarding those who did not vote last time? Are they ignored or weighted as less likely to vote in some way?

I am thinking about the victims of bedroom tax, benefits sanctions etc who may not have voted last time, but who may be very keen to do something about their treatment.

mikems wrote:Does anyone know enough about the methodology of the pollsters regarding those who did not vote last time? Are they ignored or weighted as less likely to vote in some way?

I am thinking about the victims of bedroom tax, benefits sanctions etc who may not have voted last time, but who may be very keen to do something about their treatment.

All companies weight by simple demographics like age and gender, but more controversial is political weighting – using past vote or party identification to make sure the sample is politically representative of Britain. The rights and wrongs of this deserve an article in their own right, but in terms of comparing pollsters most companies weight by past vote from May 2010, YouGov weight by party ID from May 2010, Populus by current party ID, MORI and Opinium don’t use political weighting at all. This means MORI’s samples are sometimes a bit more Laboury than other phone companies (but see their likelihood to vote filter below), Opinium have speculated that their comparatively high level of UKIP support may be because they don’t weight politically and Populus tend to heavily weight down UKIP and the Greens.

mikems wrote:'I don't understand how they have the Tories winning more seats on a lower share of the vote'

And UKIP going from 4 or 5% to 14%. And Labour's vote going up from last time.

Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP 29m29 minutes ago
Is a Tory-SNP accommodation, based on massive further devolution to all parts of the UK, really so unthinkable?

rebeccariots2 wrote:

Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP 29m29 minutes ago
Is a Tory-SNP accommodation, based on massive further devolution to all parts of the UK, really so unthinkable?

I think another Tory govt - of any formulation - heralds the break up of the union within the next 10 to 15 years. Maybe Hannan is only concerned with the next 5 years and wringing as much as they can out of it.

AnatolyKasparov wrote:

mikems wrote:'I don't understand how they have the Tories winning more seats on a lower share of the vote'

And UKIP going from 4 or 5% to 14%. And Labour's vote going up from last time.

They have the Nats winning basically every Scottish seat, that's why.

TechnicalEphemera wrote:

rebeccariots2 wrote:

Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP 29m29 minutes ago
Is a Tory-SNP accommodation, based on massive further devolution to all parts of the UK, really so unthinkable?

I think another Tory govt - of any formulation - heralds the break up of the union within the next 10 to 15 years. Maybe Hannan is only concerned with the next 5 years and wringing as much as they can out of it.

A Tory SNP accommodation would break both parties.

The Tories want Scotland and the SNP would be destroyed if they collaborated with a Tory government.

Hannan has realised the Tories are out and is desperately inventing fantasy scenarios to save them. The whole SNP campaign is vote for us, we will go into government with Labour and keep them left wing. Any suggestion they would do otherwise will kill them.

THE Heights School consultation has been delayed as the Education Funding Agency (EFA) announced today that a fifth site is to be considered for the school’s permanent home.

Councillor Jo Lovelock, leader of Reading Borough Council, said: “Why they have suddenly dropped this into the application when they have been looking at sites for the last 18 months I do not know.
"Frankly to delay the consultation at this stage when there is so much community concern about the school is beyond me. It is a secrecy thing again that really gets to me and I think it smacks of a desire to delay the decision until the summer so it does not get in the way of the General Election.”

h[url]ttp://www.readingchronicle.co.uk/news/reading ... sultation/[/url]

AnatolyKasparov wrote:

TechnicalEphemera wrote:

rebeccariots2 wrote: I think another Tory govt - of any formulation - heralds the break up of the union within the next 10 to 15 years. Maybe Hannan is only concerned with the next 5 years and wringing as much as they can out of it.

A Tory SNP accommodation would break both parties.

The Tories want Scotland and the SNP would be destroyed if they collaborated with a Tory government.

Hannan has realised the Tories are out and is desperately inventing fantasy scenarios to save them. The whole SNP campaign is vote for us, we will go into government with Labour and keep them left wing. Any suggestion they would do otherwise will kill them.

Actually, probably not that bit - they have ruled out any sort of actual coalition.

What are the implications for the wider general election battleground? If a swing to the SNP of 21%, the smallest in this range, were to be repeated across the board next May it would endanger 35 of Labour’s 41 seats in Scotland. But we cannot assume such a uniform swing. Most of the seats in this survey are in areas which returned a particularly strong yes vote in September, where the SNP attraction will naturally be greater; in future rounds of research we may find a different pattern where support for independence was lower. Even so, the prospect of losing heartland seats will be a blow to Labour’s hopes: every seat they lose in Scotland means another they have to win from the Conservatives in England, while the national polls could not be much narrower.

But as ever, it is vital to remember that these polls are a snapshot, not a prediction. The Labour majorities in some of these seats are such that even a swing of this magnitude has not put the SNP far ahead – for example, just three points in Glasgow South West and Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill, and six points in Glasgow North West.

ohsocynical wrote:Another poor soul 'Hit by a train' between Maidenhead and Slough this morning.

Scotland didn’t kill off the United Kingdom – but Cameron would
By Gordon Brown

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... nstitution

TechnicalEphemera wrote:

rebeccariots2 wrote:

Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP 29m29 minutes ago
Is a Tory-SNP accommodation, based on massive further devolution to all parts of the UK, really so unthinkable?

I think another Tory govt - of any formulation - heralds the break up of the union within the next 10 to 15 years. Maybe Hannan is only concerned with the next 5 years and wringing as much as they can out of it.

A Tory SNP accommodation would break both parties.

The Tories want Scotland and the SNP would be destroyed if they collaborated with a Tory government.

Hannan has realised the Tories are out and is desperately inventing fantasy scenarios to save them. The whole SNP campaign is vote for us, we will go into government with Labour and keep them left wing. Any suggestion they would do otherwise will kill them.

David Hencke retweeted
ExaroNews ‏@ExaroNews 8m8 minutes ago
New #CSAinquiry panel to be in place by end of March, to be led by female judge from New Zealand.

David Hencke retweeted
ExaroNews ‏@ExaroNews 3m3 minutes ago
Theresa May has given #CSAinquiry statutory powers, as she will tell Parliament at 12.30pm.

David Hencke retweeted
ExaroNews ‏@ExaroNews 11m11 minutes ago
Theresa May has decided to dissolve #CSAinquiry panel, well-placed sources have told Exaro.

teresa pearce ‏@tpearce003 7m7 minutes ago
Summary of today's DWP Select Committee " Esther McVey says black is white"

AnatolyKasparov wrote:But is any sort of coalition in Labour's interest? Doubtful if it is either in the interests of the UK or any prospect of a Labour recovery in Scotland if they *are* crushed there in May.

Looking to the future north of the border, I think all three "main" parties are going to have to become "Bavarianised" (the Greens already have a separate Scottish party, of course)

The death rate in England and Wales is around a third higher than normal for this time of year, official figures show, as the winter freeze tightens its grip on large swaths of Britain.

Some 28,800 deaths were registered in the fortnight ending 23 January, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This is 32% higher than the average for that period over the previous five years (21,859).

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015 ... r-cold-flu

AnatolyKasparov wrote:But is any sort of coalition in Labour's interest? Doubtful if it is either in the interests of the UK or any prospect of a Labour recovery in Scotland if they *are* crushed there in May.

Looking to the future north of the border, I think all three "main" parties are going to have to become "Bavarianised" (the Greens already have a separate Scottish party, of course)

The former prime minister warns his successor not to assume the UK will survive. He writes: “There is a myth that the union can easily survive this new polarisation between Scotland and England because it is held together by longstanding bonds and traditions. But what may have been true in the aftermath of two world wars has given way to a new century where none of our ancient institutions are strong enough or popular enough on their own to bind us together.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... g-uk-apart