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People were asking, yesterday, about the detail within the FT article suggesting that EdM has a 67% chance of becoming PM. The 'new polling model' is from Sentio, developed by Hanover and Populus, and it's worth looking at their own site at http://sentio2015.co.uk – which is not hidden behind a paywall.
The Sentio model suggests that permutations of Labour winning outright or forming a coalition with the SNP, LibDems, and/or minority Left parties show a 66.8% probability of Labour participating in the next government with the highest probability going to Lab+SNP at 24%. Labour and the Conservatives each have only a 3% probability of gaining an outright majority. For Conservative-led coalitions, the highest probability (still only 13%) is a Con+LD+DUP.
It'll be interesting to see how Sentio2015 moves as the polling data changes on the way to May 7th...
Edit to add: Good Morning, all you lovely people
and to make more sense
This time, I'm gonna be stronger I'm not giving in...
rebeccariots2 (yesterday) wrote:3 tins of casserole steak worth £12.60. 14 weeks in jail.
What era are we living in?
The same one where :
In Manchester a mother of two, Ursula Nevin, was jailed for five months for receiving a pair of shorts given to her after they had been looted from a city centre store. In Brixton, south London, a 23-year-old student was jailed for six months for stealing £3.50 worth of water bottles from a supermarket. http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2011/aug/ ... sentencing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
From yesterday, re. Gove's comments on Ed. While I agree that the second part was typically snide, I also agree that it is the first part that will be quoted and remembered in the main; and I've always maintained that I'm not convinced the 'Wallace' comparison is particularly damaging (especially when Ed Balls is put into the mix - comparing them to two of Britain's best loved animated characters, who tend to come out on top through a combination of good natured honesty and ingenuity on the part of Gromit, always struck me as a bit of an own goal.
And Gove is hardly in a position to comment, is he?
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I am gutted. Wales lost to England in the 6 nations and I am officially gutted. Sobs.
Anyway - more on sanctions...well, sort of. As we have been told, there are no targets for sanctions. As we have seen and heard, there are.
To process a sanction referral, a DWP Decision Maker is required. Obviously. DMs are clerks with a bit of extra training.
In 2010/11, there were 1,328 whole-time equivalent DMs working for DWP. 2014/15 - there are 2,185. (FOI request, see refuted.org)
Why would DWP employ/train more than 800 new DMs in just a few years?
Could it be because DWP knew that sanctions would rise exponentially?
Historically, under previous governments, the rate of sanction referrals was on average 180,000 PA.
Even when New Labour brought in new sanctions with New Deal, it stayed about the same.
Those sanction referrals led to 120,000 benefit disallowances per annum on average.
DWP had Adjudication Officers in-house for many years; latterly, Decision Makers in Benefit Delivery Centres.
Across the UK, the number of these officials has never risen above 1,400.
Now there are more than 2,000 of them.
The reasons are obvious - IDS expected his sanctions regime to refer millions which would increase the DM workload, and he expected his imposition of mandatory reconsideration prior to appeal to increase the DM workload.
That workload is expected to be dealt with very quickly - there are targets of a few days to make a decision on sanctions and recons; the faster they're done, the quicker claimants are denied benefits. By the million.
IDS and his henchmen trumpet this speedy resolution as a great success, claiming that people aren't waiting as long as they used to for their cases to be decided upon - in his twisted way, he's quite right, they're not.
There was outrage when the right to immediate appeal went - and the assumption was that as the Mandatory Consideration of Review had no time limit for DWP to process it, people would be waiting with no benefit for a long time.
The extra DMs are there to process these very quickly, so that people are taken off benefits quickly. As they now get nothing if they decide to go on to appeal, it's obvious what all these new DMs are there for - to get people off benefit.
We know from the evidence that DMs have a target to impose a disallowance on 80% of all sanction referrals, and another to refuse benefit to 80% of all mandatory reconsiderations. And they must clear those cases within days of receiving them.
This prevents the claimant from being able to submit new evidence to support any challenge they might make - they used to have 28 days to provide this, but now they do not have that option.
The increase in the number of staff to process all this is necessary because IDS expected progressively more people to be referred for a sanction and he expected progressively more people to challenge those sanctions and any other decisions on entitlement.
This shows that IDS planned to have sanctions imposed in large numbers, planned for people to challenge those sanctions, and set up the system so that the vast majority of sanctioned claimants would be denied benefit as quickly as possible.
That's what the extra DMs are for - and IDS can deny that there are targets as much as he likes, but this information added to all the rest we know about shows that the intention has always been to stop paying social security to people in need irrespective of circumstances.
Of course, many of us have suspected this for some time - you may wonder why this latest bit of information is important. I think every bit of info is important, because as it all adds up it becomes increasingly clear what IDS is doing. He's dismantling social security.
"Poverty is the worst form of violence" - Mahatma Gandhi
Toby Latimer wrote:Mandelson has been on Today, i didn't hear him but ...
ScreenShot00194.jpg
I notice how quickly another attempt to rev up a leadership coup against Ed surfaced as soon as it looked like he was gaining some traction with his comments on tax avoiding businesses and the damning report on the coalition's NHS reforms came out.
It's like lightening you see it and can count the seconds down before you hear the peal of thunder to work out how close it is.
I didn't hear Mandelson himself. But I did hear the newscaster reading out a report on his denial of the latest whipped up rumour. Somehow although the words are all the right ones the newscaster's tone of voice managed to make them sound as if they are in all the wrong order and not to be trusted. That's some feat.
Further to ephie's excellent post (& tweets to the committee members) i came across this ;
PCS Union members - DWP staff are being hauled into the office and told they are to be disciplined because they have not imposed enough sanctions. Other staff have been told they won't be getting their annual uplift in pay, their increment because they have not sanctioned enough people in the last year.
Tories pledge to save firms £10bn by cutting ‘red tape’
Achieving the target for the next parliament would cut firms’ costs by an average of £2,000 each, according to the party http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... n-red-tape
Isn't that exactly what they promised at the last election? Is this an admission that they didn't fulfil that previous promise? I suppose it means the Beecroft proposals to slash health and safety and the few remaining employee rights will be back on the table immediately if the Tories are back in power.
And what a blatant chess move in the Cameron / Crosby manufactured war for business support.
Editing to add:
The fresh deregulation drive would initially focus on agriculture, railways, energy, construction, retail, travel operators and the chemical industry.
“Today we commit to an ambitious goal to do more to cut red tape so our nation’s employers can grow and create jobs,” Hancock said.
Don't you just love the idea of less regulation on businesses in those sectors quoted above ... ?
HindleA wrote:There are no targets for sanctions.It is a "quality" target (of 80% of referrals resulting in sanctions)tsk.That'll fool 'em.
Of course it is, A.
It's all about "quality". The quality of sanction referrals was so bad that half of all cases did not result in a benefit disallowance.
Obviously, the DMs were applying the legislation and finding that half the cases put to them did not pass muster in law.
So - rather than train JC and WP staff to submit cases with legitimate doubt, thus improving the quality of referrals, the new idea is to allow all these duff referrals to continue (and increase) and simply force the DMs to meet the 80% "quality" target. Simple.
Fester McVile droned on several times about the quality of communication with claimants under the new regime.
She opined that when Labour were in office, claimants had no clue about how long a sanction would last. This is manifestly untrue, as there was a maximum for all referrals - eg. up to 26 weeks for LV or Misconduct; 4 weeks for not attending a Restart course; etc.
Most of the sanctions for jobsearch stuff were between 1 and 4 weeks; it was unusual to get more.
The hectoring harpy takes the view that claimants are very happy to have no uncertainty - they really really like it when they know for sure that they'll get nowt for 3 months (the average) and love it when they have to wait 2 weeks for hardship support they are unlikely to qualify for.......
"Poverty is the worst form of violence" - Mahatma Gandhi
Toby Latimer wrote:Mandelson has been on Today, i didn't hear him but ...
ScreenShot00194.jpg
I notice how quickly another attempt to rev up a leadership coup against Ed surfaced as soon as it looked like he was gaining some traction with his comments on tax avoiding businesses and the damning report on the coalition's NHS reforms came out.
It's like lightening you see it and can count the seconds down before you hear the peal of thunder to work out how close it is.
I didn't hear Mandelson himself. But I did hear the newscaster reading out a report on his denial of the latest whipped up rumour. Somehow although the words are all the right ones the newscaster's tone of voice managed to make them sound as if they are in all the wrong order and not to be trusted. That's some feat.
This isn't even "new" - its a rehash of the rumoured (but remarkably elusive) "plot" rumours last November.
Did those "20 shadow ministers" the Observer assured us were in on it ever identify themselves, btw?
University of Reading: students' votes could make a difference
That is the message from leaders at the University of Reading and Reading University Students’ Union (RUSU), which is running a campaign this week to encourage students to sign up to the electoral roll.
RobertSnozers wrote:
So what the hell is happening when months-long prison sentences are being given for non-violent crimes involving thefts worth pennies?! Is it because it's a crime against capitalism, perhaps, and therefore beyond the pale?
Yes. And indeed at the other end of the spectrum we see this :
Oxford hellraisers politely trash a pub
"Four people were arrested on suspicion of causing criminal damage. They were too drunk at the time to be interviewed and were put in the cells at Abingdon.....
"They all received an £80 fixed penalty notice and were released. The officer in the case said they had all gone out for a meal and it had all got a little rowdy." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ ... a-pub.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I doubt that any of this has anything at all to do with the fact that 58% of the leading positions in UK law are populated by Oxbridge graduates who do not understand the world as it is experienced by the other 99.5 percent of the population. http://www.suttontrust.com/wp-content/u ... -final.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
It's my birthday so please, share a slice of this gorgeous looking virtual birthday cake that somebody made & took a photo of then helpfully uploaded it to their website
ohsocynical wrote:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 13s13 seconds ago
Revised @LordAshcroft outcome for December Hallam poll
LAB 30
LD 27
CON 19
UKIP 13
GRN 10
Yep, a three point LibDem lead originally is now reversed.
Thanet S has now just a 1 point Tory lead over UKIP (as opposed to 5 originally) and Miliband now leads in Doncaster N by 30 points.
@LordAshcroft
Those three Nov 14 polls were the first and only I’ve commissioned from a well-known but quite new polling firm, which I will not use again.
RobertSnozers wrote:
So what the hell is happening when months-long prison sentences are being given for non-violent crimes involving thefts worth pennies?! Is it because it's a crime against capitalism, perhaps, and therefore beyond the pale?
Yes. And indeed at the other end of the spectrum we see this :
Oxford hellraisers politely trash a pub
"Four people were arrested on suspicion of causing criminal damage. They were too drunk at the time to be interviewed and were put in the cells at Abingdon.....
"They all received an £80 fixed penalty notice and were released. The officer in the case said they had all gone out for a meal and it had all got a little rowdy." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ ... a-pub.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
I doubt that any of this has anything at all to do with the fact that 58% of the leading positions in UK law are populated by Oxbridge graduates who do not understand the world as it is experienced by the other 99.5 percent of the population. http://www.suttontrust.com/wp-content/u ... -final.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Bullingdon Club active in Oxford I wonder ? In Cameron's own backyard - he'll be rooting through his wardrobe to dig out his tailor made uniform & dickie-bow so he can join them on the next jolly.
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pk1 wrote:It's my birthday so please, share a slice of this gorgeous looking virtual birthday cake that somebody made & took a photo of then helpfully uploaded it to their website
As a rule, I dislike the articles Christina Patterson writes because they are usually very very stupid....
But she has a very good piece on the Dragon Cafe in a church crypt in Southwark, so credit where it's due.
Worth a read. There should be more of this sort of thing.
Would that be the church of St George the Martyr on Borough High Street? It has a long & honourable record of providing help for the poor and needy; inevitable, I suppose, for a church situated in what was historically one of the most deprived areas of London and adjacent to the site of the debtors's prison, the Marshalsea. They were running soup kitchens from the old crypt when I was growing up in the area; it is reassuring that they are still providing succour today, but, at the same time, it is disappointing that the need is still there.
pk1 wrote:It's my birthday so please, share a slice of this gorgeous looking virtual birthday cake that somebody made & took a photo of then helpfully uploaded it to their website
Charging for care in Wokingham: the council asks what the public thinks
It asks the public's views on:
* How it can best support people to make informed choices about residential and non-residential care
* how to support carers and whether they should be charged for services (if they can afford to pay)
* what is the maximum amount to charge for care that is best met in own home
* how to set administration fees for arranging services for people who can afford to pay for their own care (known as self-funders)
* how to charge fees for setting up and maintaining a Deferred Payment Agreement under the new Universal Deferred Payments Scheme (including the application of an interest rate on the amount deferred. The proposals are very similar to arranging and paying for a mortgage.)
From Letters beneath the article on care home charges.
It's a bit garbled but the writer evidently thinks Redwoods been exploiting the system.
For over a decade prominent characters in our community have been printing over £100k / dwelling just land value changes getting planning permission, our MP has been allowing wealthy families to buy swaths of our land via offshore companies owned by trusts, effectively allowing their grandchildren to charge a private shelter tax to the 90%'s children...
We need to expect John Redwood to help all his constituents move their estate into the most effective vehicle, OR, closing down the loopholes he helps others exploit. He can not choose one set over the other. Absolute mockery of what democracy of what an MP is supposed to be. Representative of his constituents.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
Unbelievably, a decent piece about Ed in the Groan!
Just read it & this leapt out at me:
it was a deliberate decision by the Miliband team last weekend to respond to the warnings of a Labour catastrophe by the Boots acting chief executive Stefano Pessina (now, five days later, denied in a statement by the company).
Really ? After all this fuss, Boots deny Pessina said that ?
Any idea where this statement has been published because I can't find it ?
He then reels off – without forgetting any names – a list of businessmen
pk1 wrote:It's my birthday so please, share a slice of this gorgeous looking virtual birthday cake that somebody made & took a photo of then helpfully uploaded it to their website
Happy Birthday PK! Hope you have a great day
Yum - that cake is good!
pk1 wrote:It's my birthday so please, share a slice of this gorgeous looking virtual birthday cake that somebody made & took a photo of then helpfully uploaded it to their website
Many Happy Returns!
Candles must represent all the best wishes you are receiving. Cannot be anything to do with your age!
Unbelievably, a decent piece about Ed in the Groan!
Just read it & this leapt out at me:
it was a deliberate decision by the Miliband team last weekend to respond to the warnings of a Labour catastrophe by the Boots acting chief executive Stefano Pessina (now, five days later, denied in a statement by the company).
Really ? After all this fuss, Boots deny Pessina said that ?
Some of the comments on this article are really awful. They must be running scared.
Any idea where this statement has been published because I can't find it ?
He then reels off – without forgetting any names – a list of businessmen
pk1 wrote:It's my birthday so please, share a slice of this gorgeous looking virtual birthday cake that somebody made & took a photo of then helpfully uploaded it to their website
The Boots spat has cheered me up enormously. Somehow I sense that things will move more Labour's way as a result of it. Ed Miliband has the right of it in most of the the public's eyes and it's given him the platform to expand his vision of how things can\should be.
The Boots spat has cheered me up enormously. Somehow I sense that things will move more Labour's way as a result of it. Ed Miliband has the right of it in most of the the public's eyes and it's given him the platform to expand his vision of how things can\should be.
Anthony Wells in his round up has today said
Labour came under criticism from various business leaders, primarily Stefano Pessina the boss of Boots. Last year YouGov found 27% of people saw Labour as a pro-business party, 21% as anti-business. In comparison 66% saw the Tories as pro-business, 5% anti-business. Whether people necessarily see being pro-business as a good thing is a different matter entirely… more on this on Sunday.
so I'm guessing they have tested public opinion for Sundays yougov poll & that the numbers favour Labour's stance rather than the Cons about being pro-business
Unbelievably, a decent piece about Ed in the Groan!
Just read it & this leapt out at me:
it was a deliberate decision by the Miliband team last weekend to respond to the warnings of a Labour catastrophe by the Boots acting chief executive Stefano Pessina (now, five days later, denied in a statement by the company).
Really ? After all this fuss, Boots deny Pessina said that ?
Any idea where this statement has been published because I can't find it ?
He then reels off – without forgetting any names – a list of businessmen
Snide remark unnecessary Mr Wintour !
If I remember correctly, this was picked up and posted on Twitter by regular everyday Tweeters. The political parties picked up on it a bit later.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
Tories pledge to save firms £10bn by cutting ‘red tape’
Achieving the target for the next parliament would cut firms’ costs by an average of £2,000 each, according to the party http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... n-red-tape
Isn't that exactly what they promised at the last election? Is this an admission that they didn't fulfil that previous promise? I suppose it means the Beecroft proposals to slash health and safety and the few remaining employee rights will be back on the table immediately if the Tories are back in power.
And what a blatant chess move in the Cameron / Crosby manufactured war for business support.
Editing to add:
The fresh deregulation drive would initially focus on agriculture, railways, energy, construction, retail, travel operators and the chemical industry.
“Today we commit to an ambitious goal to do more to cut red tape so our nation’s employers can grow and create jobs,” Hancock said.
Don't you just love the idea of less regulation on businesses in those sectors quoted above ... ?
The narrative will be that "left wing" Vince Cable blocked them last time.
As you say, these don't look like my idea of areas where regulation needs cutting. I reckon lots of this must be tied up with the EU renegotiation. Probably the point is the political fight, who's side are you on, blah, blah.
