Wednesday 11th February 2015

[citizenJA]

If true ... that's absolutely appalling. Anyone got access to this Times article who can tell us a bit more?

I doubt it's true, my friend.

Presume it's come from a report of the trial that's going on ... so who knows. I seem to remember a report of pads being found which had multiple impressions of Xs as if they had been used underneath voting forms a lot of times.

Will see if I can find any mentions elsewhere that might shed a bit more light.

This report from a month ago shows what the allegations re postal vote fraud are based on.

Judge to see forensics that point to Tower Hamlets vote fraud
Evidence from an independent forensic scientist will form the centrepiece of a rare election fraud trial opening at the High Court on Monday.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ ... fraud.html

You are right to look at the evidence. I think a re-run the of the election done properly would return those currently elected.

[rebeccariots2]

I doubt it's true, my friend.

Presume it's come from a report of the trial that's going on ... so who knows. I seem to remember a report of pads being found which had multiple impressions of Xs as if they had been used underneath voting forms a lot of times.

Will see if I can find any mentions elsewhere that might shed a bit more light.

This report from a month ago shows what the allegations re postal vote fraud are based on.

Judge to see forensics that point to Tower Hamlets vote fraud
Evidence from an independent forensic scientist will form the centrepiece of a rare election fraud trial opening at the High Court on Monday.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ ... fraud.html

You are right to look at the evidence. I think a re-run the of the election done properly would return those currently elected.

That might be very positive for them if so. It can't be good either for those elected - or the voters - to have the taint hanging over them.

[StephenDolan]

Don't answer the question and pretend you've answered it. Then get the press officer to do the same. Yes, definitely the way to win PMQs

[letsskiptotheleft]

Re the polls, I'd have thought that inflating the Tory lead would just motivate more Labour voters to actually turn out and vote on the day, as well as maybe persuading some of those considering voting Green/SNP/Plaid or UKIP to stick with Labour out of a fear of the Tories just getting in. I don't see that it's particularly advantagous to the Tories to inflate their vote in the polls.

I just wonder if maybe the polling companies various methods simply can't cope with the increasingly multi party system that we have. Like the voting system itself, they were created to work within two or three party system, and now we have seven, they just don't know what to do. They keep faffing about with their methodology to try and adapt, but none of them really know how. We had all those months of massively inflated votes for the LibDems while ignoring UKIP, then UKIP suddenly shot up to the 20's, now their sliding back down again. The Greens have been up and down like yoyo's while Scotland has seemingly morphed into a country of revolutionary nationalism overnight, despite rejecting that very thing not six months ago. It's all so random it's difficult to believe any of it anymore.

Imagine if, and entirely possible, despite the close to pessimism we have all felt lately that Labour string together a few 4/5% leads, exasperated Tories saying ''WTF have we got to do'' read on the weekend Crosby has data that indicates they should start pulling away the end of this month, beginning of next, but that's only data, it has proved to be wrong time and time again in this Parliament.

[LadyCentauria]

Morning all.

The Google doc that Lady Centauria linked to yesterday had Wirral South listed (John Bell) but not Wirral West's Esther McVey. Puzzling. Was it a list of targets, not marginals?

It's a list of 'non-target' seats uncovered in a leaked Conservative Party memo, retweeted by Richard Taylor, an activist and volunteer for whatdotheyknow.com, from an original tweet by Phil Rodgers: https://twitter.com/PhilRodgers/status/ ... 4411536386
Seemingly, the memo was posted on the party website but removed later – not an unusual occurrance with that site, or so I'm led to understand.

May2015.com produced this article about it, which someone linked to yesterday. Sorry I can't remember who it was:
http://may2015.com/featured/leaked-list ... marginals/

Now, 'non-target' doesn't necessarily mean that the seats wo'n't be fought for; it might just be that they'll just attract (relatively) less funding, publicity, and high-profile campaign visits, than the seats which are 'targets.' I'd assume that they'll campaign pretty hard to keep McVey in place. And, given the size of the Tory War Chest, it's not as if they're short of a bob or two, after all...

[LadyCentauria]

Aargh! Quick! Post something, woman...

Umm...

What do you call a boomerang that doesn't come back?

[AnatolyKasparov]

Lady C - post something else NOW!

[TheGrimSqueaker]

Aargh! Quick! Post something, woman...

Umm...

What do you call a boomerang that doesn't come back?

Something brown and sticky?

[ohsocynical]

From 2010:

Last year, when the banking crisis threatened to bankrupt the islands, the territory’s government turned to London (still its ultimate paymaster) for the guarantee of a £200m loan. The relevant minister, Chris Bryant, suggested they should consider their position and think about bringing in new direct taxes—and not presume on their offshore status—before they took their request further. The Labour government, which had started to develop a real appetite for clamping down on tax avoidance, had spotted its chance. By refusing to act as a lender of last resort, it could nobble one of the world’s most infamous havens.

That’s where things stood until the Labour lost the election in May. Just a few days later, Henry Bellingham, newly-appointed minister for overseas territories, gave the Caymans the go-ahead to borrow the money—without bringing in new taxes.

Indeed, just a few weeks before the government U-turn on the Caymans, a number of British hedge-fund owners handed over large sums of money to the Conservative party, in the run-up to the general election. Some had also given up to six-figure sums to George Osborne to pay for his office in opposition. No laws have been broken. But would it be getting a little carried away to wonder if they were all in it together?

Read more at:
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/opini ... dispatches

I know Twitter can be irritating, but you do find some good links on there.

[ohsocynical]

Aargh! Quick! Post something, woman...

Umm...

What do you call a boomerang that doesn't come back?

F*****g useless?

[StephenDolan]

'Could the SNP’s advance really be as big as Lord Ashcroft’s polls suggest? May2015 showed that the polls implied the SNP will win more than 50 seats in Scotland in May.

For me, the selective approach of Lord Ashcroft polls means it’s ill-advised to extrapolate any kind of uniform pattern from his polls.'
http://may2015.com/featured/can-the-snp ... -50-seats/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[RogerOThornhill]

Aargh! Quick! Post something, woman...

Umm...

What do you call a boomerang that doesn't come back?

F*****g useless?

[youtube]XfTdnWLMLDA[/youtube]

[HindleA]

I've helped people fill in postal votes ,they were for the same party and my fingerprints will be all over them.

[rebeccariots2]

I've helped people fill in postal votes ,they were for the same party and my fingerprints will be all over them.

Did you also put the X in the box for them though HindleA?

[Tubby Isaacs]

From Agnes, Mailwatch forum.

Nicola Sturgeon's a 'true socialist.' Aye right.

So a true socialist wouldn't complain about the East Coast rail franchise being sold off to a private company (so long as that company was run by a donor to their party, obviously). A true socialist would announce their intention to get into a race to the bottom on corporation tax with Those Tight-Fisted Rich (Homogeneous) English Bastards. A true socialist would need a kick up the arse from the TUC and Scottish Labour before spending money which they already had to ameliorate the effects of the Bedroom Tax on the poor and vulnerable they profess so loudly to care about. A true socialist would force councils to cut services too, by taking away their power to raise more money when it was needed.

I had thought that socialism involved taking from each according to their means as well as giving to each according to their need. Silly me. True socialism obviously consists of beating up straw men, promising whatever every one wants (and when any one mentions costs sticking your fingers in your ears and shouting OIL), and telling other people to be socialists instead. The Scottish Government has the power to raise income tax - the textbook example of a tax on the rich rather than the poor - by 2p in the pound. The SNP has never bothered to use it.

If Clem Attlee's turning in his grave it's at the sight of intelligent people falling for this crap.

[NonOxCol]

So it's true. I really do live in a country where a pink bus gets as much news traction as racist vans.

Fan-bloody-tastic.

[HindleA]

I've helped people fill in postal votes ,they were for the same party and my fingerprints will be all over them.

Did you also put the X in the box for them though HindleA?

I was asked to help by relatives of visually impaired students at a college I am pretty sure I endeavoured to jointly make the required mark,but of course I was guiding the hand.How closely that would have resembled the result of my own independent mark forensically I have no idea.

[Lonewolfie]

From 2010:

Last year, when the banking crisis threatened to bankrupt the islands, the territory’s government turned to London (still its ultimate paymaster) for the guarantee of a £200m loan. The relevant minister, Chris Bryant, suggested they should consider their position and think about bringing in new direct taxes—and not presume on their offshore status—before they took their request further. The Labour government, which had started to develop a real appetite for clamping down on tax avoidance, had spotted its chance. By refusing to act as a lender of last resort, it could nobble one of the world’s most infamous havens.

That’s where things stood until the Labour lost the election in May. Just a few days later, Henry Bellingham, newly-appointed minister for overseas territories, gave the Caymans the go-ahead to borrow the money—without bringing in new taxes.

Indeed, just a few weeks before the government U-turn on the Caymans, a number of British hedge-fund owners handed over large sums of money to the Conservative party, in the run-up to the general election. Some had also given up to six-figure sums to George Osborne to pay for his office in opposition. No laws have been broken. But would it be getting a little carried away to wonder if they were all in it together?


Read more at:
http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/opini ... dispatches

I know Twitter can be irritating, but you do find some good links on there.

Indeed (and thanks for the reminder and link - I knew there was something like that around in 2010) - makes you wonder why they went to town quite so viciously on a certain Mr G Brown Esq...and this...from 2012...

"What happened at HSBC is frankly shocking," Miliband said.

In a similar vein, a leader in today's Times (£) notes that "It would be interesting to hear from Lord Green, a man who has great personal integrity and a strong ethical code, an account of how things at the bank went awry. The issues at stake here go beyond the role banks play in the economy to the role they play in society. Do they facilitate or inhibit crime? Do they enhance or undermine international security?"

But Downing Street is insistent that Green's position is safe. One source told the Telegraph: "As far as we are concerned, he’s not going anywhere – there are no allegations against him and all this information was already in the public domain."

http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/polit ... phen-green

Is it a case of Dave ja vu?...I've already got my coat....

[rebeccariots2]

But Downing Street is insistent that Green's position is safe. One source told the Telegraph: "As far as we are concerned, he’s not going anywhere – there are no allegations against him and all this information was already in the public domain."[/i]

http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/polit ... phen-green

Is it a case of Dave ja vu?...I've already got my coat....

No you haven't wolfie - cos I already threw it ahead of you.

[rebeccariots2]

Many of us here have expressed our hopes that should Labour be in government post May 7th they will turn out to have been well worth giving the benefit of the doubt re which direction and how far towards it they will actually take us in re welfare 'reform' / cuts and a host of other contentious issues such as rail renationalisation, how much private sector involvement in the NHS, etc etc.

The worry I have if the SNP turn out to play any part in Westminster government - ad hoc confidence & supply arrangement most likely - is that they will claim any progressive movement is solely down to their bargaining influence. I would like to think that Labour would be putting forward a lot of progressive and redistributive policies on their own - regardless of SNP, Greens, Plaid.

[letsskiptotheleft]

Has this been linked, as usual, apologies if it has. Not bad timing for Labour HSBC blowing up, last week it was Anti-Business Ed, this, shysters, spivs and friends of Tories avoiding tax by any means possible.

This, another HSBC stink, emanating from the Channel Isles.

http://www.channel4.com/news/hsbc-whist ... c-accounts" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[rebeccariots2]

Tom McTague retweeted
Siraj Datoo ‏@dats 6m6 minutes ago
PM overheard saying that Ed was "personally horrid to me" during #PMQs http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... -PMQs.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …

I'm sorry but he comes across like a really really spoilt little Lord Fauntleroy from that. Ed Miliband was simply beeeestlee to me.

[danesclose]

From Lonewolfie's post

One source told the Telegraph: "As far as we are concerned, he’s not going anywhere – there are no allegations against him and all this information was already in the public domain."

In that case how can government ministers claim that they knew nothing until last weekend?

[rebeccariots2]

Diane Abbott MP ‏@HackneyAbbott 3m3 minutes ago
So @David_Cameron complains Ed Mili was 'horrid' to him. Prime Minister, the last 5 yrs have been SO HORRID for so many across this country

Jon Trickett ‏@jon_trickett 5m5 minutes ago
Journalist overhears Cameron saying that EdM was "personally horrid to me". Yes the word was horrid!!! Oh diddums!

I'm agreeing with Diane Abbott on this one.

[rebeccariots2]

Tom Blenkinsop ‏@TomBlenkinsop 2m2 minutes ago
Excellent point by @SheilaGilmoreMP. Cameron promised to eliminate the deficit by 2015. Instead, Cameron doubled the national debt by 2014.

I like Sheila Gilmore - she's a straight talker - hope she doesn't lose her seat to the SNP.

[letsskiptotheleft]

Tom McTague retweeted
Siraj Datoo ‏@dats 6m6 minutes ago
PM overheard saying that Ed was "personally horrid to me" during #PMQs http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... -PMQs.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …

I'm sorry but he comes across like a really really spoilt little Lord Fauntleroy from that. Ed Miliband was simply beeeestlee to me.

''Coming across horrid'' Good.

Cameron has come across as a spiv, a bully, an embarrassment to the office he holds, a man who worms his way out of answering the most straight forward questions imaginable, a twister of stories and facts and an effing liar, none of that matters 'cos Ed was ''horrid'' to him, if I was there i'd have slapped him by now.

[Eric_WLothian]

Another Nat myth - that Gordon Brown's vague promise (known as 'The Vow' by SNP camp followers) swung the vote against them - discredited:

THE high profile ‘vow’ made by pro-union party leaders in the final days of the referendum had no impact on the final result, new research has found.

And the last TV debate between Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling, which the SNP leader was widely deemed to have won, also had little effect, according to the analysis of web search data.

The study also showed that the more information that people searched for online, the less likely they were to vote for independence.

The YouGov poll published on 5th September, which put the Yes campaign four points behind Better Together, did have a significant positive impact on the Yes vote, but no effect on online search activities.

“Over the course of the referendum we were able to compare what was happening online with the various poll results to get a relatively accurate fix on the referendum outcome,” Prof MacDonald added.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/t ... -1-3686914

[Eric_WLothian]

Has this been linked, as usual, apologies if it has. Not bad timing for Labour HSBC blowing up, last week it was Anti-Business Ed, this, shysters, spivs and friends of Tories avoiding tax by any means possible.

This, another HSBC stink, emanating from the Channel Isles.

http://www.channel4.com/news/hsbc-whist ... c-accounts" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Is there any reason for having an offshore account other than tax avoidance/evasion?
(Genuine question, not aimed specifically at Letsskip).

[Tubby Isaacs]

Many of us here have expressed our hopes that should Labour be in government post May 7th they will turn out to have been well worth giving the benefit of the doubt re which direction and how far towards it they will actually take us in re welfare 'reform' / cuts and a host of other contentious issues such as rail renationalisation, how much private sector involvement in the NHS, etc etc.

The worry I have if the SNP turn out to play any part in Westminster government - ad hoc confidence & supply arrangement most likely - is that they will claim any progressive movement is solely down to their bargaining influence. I would like to think that Labour would be putting forward a lot of progressive and redistributive policies on their own - regardless of SNP, Greens, Plaid.

Indeed.

There's also the gift to the Tories that Labour will be "weak" and "in hock" to a load of anti-English bozos. The Tories have had feeble Lib Dem Coalition partners, which have enabled Cameron to look in control all the time. The SNP would be far more awkward.

I think we just have to hope Labour can get enough seats so that the SNP don't matter, and they can say "put the Tories in like you did before, or shut up".

[Tubby Isaacs]

Another Nat myth - that Gordon Brown's vague promise (known as 'The Vow' by SNP camp followers) swung the vote against them - discredited:

THE high profile ‘vow’ made by pro-union party leaders in the final days of the referendum had no impact on the final result, new research has found.

And the last TV debate between Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling, which the SNP leader was widely deemed to have won, also had little effect, according to the analysis of web search data.

The study also showed that the more information that people searched for online, the less likely they were to vote for independence.

The YouGov poll published on 5th September, which put the Yes campaign four points behind Better Together, did have a significant positive impact on the Yes vote, but no effect on online search activities.

“Over the course of the referendum we were able to compare what was happening online with the various poll results to get a relatively accurate fix on the referendum outcome,” Prof MacDonald added.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/t ... -1-3686914

The "solemn vow".

I wish Brown and all had just said "you're either in or out" instead of promising more devolution.

What are the SNP saying hasn't been delivered which was promised?

[ohsocynical]

Tom McTague retweeted
Siraj Datoo ‏@dats 6m6 minutes ago
PM overheard saying that Ed was "personally horrid to me" during #PMQs http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... -PMQs.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …

I'm sorry but he comes across like a really really spoilt little Lord Fauntleroy from that. Ed Miliband was simply beeeestlee to me.

I bet he doesn't read the replies on his Twitter account.

[Eric_WLothian]

Another Nat myth - that Gordon Brown's vague promise (known as 'The Vow' by SNP camp followers) swung the vote against them - discredited:

THE high profile ‘vow’ made by pro-union party leaders in the final days of the referendum had no impact on the final result, new research has found.

And the last TV debate between Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling, which the SNP leader was widely deemed to have won, also had little effect, according to the analysis of web search data.

The study also showed that the more information that people searched for online, the less likely they were to vote for independence.

The YouGov poll published on 5th September, which put the Yes campaign four points behind Better Together, did have a significant positive impact on the Yes vote, but no effect on online search activities.

“Over the course of the referendum we were able to compare what was happening online with the various poll results to get a relatively accurate fix on the referendum outcome,” Prof MacDonald added.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/t ... -1-3686914

The "solemn vow".

I wish Brown and all had just said "you're either in or out" instead of promising more devolution.

What are the SNP saying hasn't been delivered which was promised?

As far as I can see, the Smith Commission was set up and reported on time. The report was signed off by the SNP representatives. That's all that was promised.

[Tubby Isaacs]

What's been "watered down"?

[Tubby Isaacs]

From James Forsyth:



This drivel was around when IDS was leader, so it may not quite be the winner suggested here.

[ohsocynical]

Has this been linked, as usual, apologies if it has. Not bad timing for Labour HSBC blowing up, last week it was Anti-Business Ed, this, shysters, spivs and friends of Tories avoiding tax by any means possible.

This, another HSBC stink, emanating from the Channel Isles.

http://www.channel4.com/news/hsbc-whist ... c-accounts" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Is there any reason for having an offshore account other than tax avoidance/evasion?
(Genuine question, not aimed specifically at Letsskip).

There isn't. It's purely to get away from paying their fair share. But it's legal. Was just listening to the grilling the tax people are getting. I think they [tax people] said they're trying to get some sort of international agreement to tighten up the rules.
And the big four accountancy companies are under scrutiny. Margaret Hodge hates them with a passion, but I gathered they've become rather like the banks. Too big and powerful to be answerable.

[pk1]

So it's true. I really do live in a country where a pink bus gets as much news traction as racist vans.

Fan-bloody-tastic.

It's ridiculous isn't it.

Meeja luvvie FleetStreetFox has devoted an entire column to it & it's so appallingly bad, I couldn't even wade through it.

She then went on Sky news & even suggested Labour should get a black bus & tour the country talking only to black people

Brief foray into the mind of our media hacks:

Tax evasion ? What's that ? Some lefty smear against Con ****s, nah we don't buy into stories like that.......

[letsskiptotheleft]

I would cheered the BBC once for taking on the Sun, still a rather witty response to today's faux outrage from Murdoch Towers.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/corporate2/mediace ... to-the-sun" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[PorFavor]

Good afternoon.

(This is probably a flying visit. Sorry for unceremoniously bailing out yesterday.)

Husband Royston Jones guilty of nurse murder bid

Bare-chested Royston Jones attacked Claire Jones in front of colleagues at Nevill Hall Hospital in Abergavenny. (BBC News website)

Did this story come too late for David Cameron to have a go at the Welsh NHS? It must have done, or I'm fairly sure he would have had a damn' good try at using it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-sout ... s-31424081

Edited to add -

I'll say "goodnight" now, shall I - just in case?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Well said here.

Susan ‏@marthasydenham 4m4 minutes ago
So will the SNP now admit there are big differences between Labour and Tories or are we still Red Tories?

[TheGrimSqueaker]

So it's true. I really do live in a country where a pink bus gets as much news traction as racist vans.

Fan-bloody-tastic.

It's ridiculous isn't it.

Meeja luvvie FleetStreetFox has devoted an entire column to it & it's so appallingly bad, I couldn't even wade through it.

She then went on Sky news & even suggested Labour should get a black bus & tour the country talking only to black people

Brief foray into the mind of our media hacks:

Tax evasion ? What's that ? Some lefty smear against Con ****s, nah we don't buy into stories like that.......

I don't get Boniface. She can write some really good, cutting articles and then comes out with garbage like that.

[pk1]

Good afternoon.

(This is probably a flying visit. Sorry for unceremoniously bailing out yesterday.)

Husband Royston Jones guilty of nurse murder bid

Bare-chested Royston Jones attacked Claire Jones in front of colleagues at Nevill Hall Hospital in Abergavenny. (BBC News website)

Did this story come too late for David Cameron to have a go at the Welsh NHS? It must have done, or I'm fairly sure he would have had a damn' good try at using it.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-sout ... s-31424081

Edited to add -

I'll say "goodnight" now, shall I - just in case?

Bloody nurses in Wales, stopping a man trying to murder his wife ! What on earth were they thinking & if he (points at Ed) had any backbone at all, he'd order them all to be sacked & employ the services of St Bailey to Cure the patients ! Harrumph !

[pk1]

I don't get Boniface. She can write some really good, cutting articles and then comes out with garbage like that.

Can't stand her TGS. Most of her writing is just utter garbage imo & I will derive much pleasure if she finds herself out of a job after the Mirror Group go bust under the costs of compensating all the phone hacking victims.

Sadly, this would also mean losing the only Labour supporting media

[pk1]

David Drew et al not happy with Francis Freedom to speak report:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[ohsocynical]

Richard Caring breaks silence over £2.25m cash withdrawal from HSBC
Restaurant tycoon gives newspaper interview to explain reasons for transaction recorded in leaked Swiss files

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... rawal-hsbc

I read this, understood not a word of it, and could only think:

Oh what tangled webs we weave

[TheGrimSqueaker]

David Drew et al not happy with Francis Freedom to speak report:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[rebeccariots2]

John Stevens ‏@johnestevens 1h1 hour ago
Nicola Sturgeon took Nick Robinson & Jon Snow out for dinner in Westminster last night.. No one tell SNP protesters

[rebeccariots2]

Thatchersrise ‏@Thatchersrise 1h1 hour ago
Somewhere in Conservative Central Office a cry goes up: ‘My God! The bitch has won!’

Thatchersrise @Thatchersrise · 11m 11 minutes ago
Lord Carrington reacting to the news of Thatcher’s victory: ‘She’ll be out by Christmas!’

Thatchersrise @Thatchersrise · 8m 8 minutes ago
Leaving the Commons for Central Office someone hands Thatcher a potted plant which she uses to ram through the photographers

40 years ago today that Thatcher won the Conservative leadership contest.

(I knew there must be a reason why I'm feeling a bit out of sorts today ... must be some kind of ingrained bad anniversary sense.)

[AnatolyKasparov]

Today is also the 25th anniversary of Nelson Mandela's release, though.

(a quarter of a century ago, dear God )

[citizenJA]

So it's true. I really do live in a country where a pink bus gets as much news traction as racist vans.

Fan-bloody-tastic.

ONE NATION LABOUR MAGENTA

[rebeccariots2]

Today is also the 25th anniversary of Nelson Mandela's release, though.

(a quarter of a century ago, dear God )

Thank you. That's definitely more uplifting to remember.