Monday, 23rd February 2015

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Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Hmm.

The "London Challenge did nothing" bloke was on Twitter with me. I wasn't particularly impressed. He seemed to think London's schools were gentrified by immigration, even in Tower Hamlets. Not the ones near me, unless Bangladesh has become a lot richer recently.
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TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

Reviewing the days posts from a secret location, I can't help but wonder what is going on with pollsters.

Ashcrofts national polls are all over the place, largely because he uses small sample sizes.
The other pollsters seem to have some very odd methodologies, it is almost as though they are adjusting the figures to reflect what they think the answer should be rather than on the basis of science. That Populus adjustment is huge, based on being more likely to vote; a question which is itself likely to suffer from untruthful answers.

The media behaviour, trumpeting every outlier as a major story and ignoring run of the mill polls must surely contribute. Pollsters must now be looking for wild swings to generate sales. As long as they get the last poll before the GE right nobody will care if they were wrong the rest of the time. To make it even more screwed up the media weaves polls that agree with the narrative together and sticks them on the front page, whilst quietly playing down contradictory polls.

It is buggered, I don't think the polls are accurate, we are into pin the tail on the donkey stuff.

Incidentally I noted in the FT that Rothschild's are sufficiently worried about a Labour win to consider moving their bonus payout from June to before the election.
Release the Guardvarks.
Eric_WLothian
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by Eric_WLothian »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Ouch.

Would be interested to know if they balloted the member on independence.
Don't know whether there was a ballot but the POA in Scotland joined the public sector strikes in 2012, against public sector pension reforms.
Tens of thousands of public sector workers in Scotland have joined a 24-hour strike about pensions changes.
Job centre workers, some NHS staff and prison officers joined the walkout.
Despite a voluntary deal not to strike, members of the Prison Officers' Association (POA) took part in the action...

...Every jail north of the border has been affected by the walkout, except the privately-operated Kilmarnock and Addiewell prisons.
The Scottish Prison Service said all jail transfers and visits had been cancelled for the day.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-s ... s-18016465

I wonder what happened to the voluntary deal.
Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

I though bank bonuses were in December.
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by RogerOThornhill »

AngryAsWell wrote:Seems this week Labour are back on Education

"Labour unveils plans to aid training and recruitment of headteachers
Shadow education secretary Tristram Hunt to announce proposals for new schools training body and partnerships with business."

http://www.theguardian.com/education/20 ... adteachers" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Not surprising that they're trying to seize the initiative on education - the Tories week on it was so poor.

The arts getting downgraded was a direct consequence of the "You must do STEM subjects!!" of Gove and the appalling Truss.

Good to see that they're going to ditch the NCTL - that was always just a way of Gove giving one of his mates a job and who's been totally useless.
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Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Fun with the IEA's Richard Wellings on Twitter. He latched on Dispatches to attack HS3 because it would be open to corruption.

Someone's pointed out that he's OK with £15bn being spent on roads.
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TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:I though bank bonuses were in December.
This one is in June apparently, which is normal for a bonus based on the financial year results.
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Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

RogerOThornhill wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:Seems this week Labour are back on Education

"Labour unveils plans to aid training and recruitment of headteachers
Shadow education secretary Tristram Hunt to announce proposals for new schools training body and partnerships with business."

http://www.theguardian.com/education/20 ... adteachers" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Not surprising that they're trying to seize the initiative on education - the Tories week on it was so poor.

The arts getting downgraded was a direct consequence of the "You must do STEM subjects!!" of Gove and the appalling Truss.

Good to see that they're going to ditch the NCTL - that was always just a way of Gove giving one of his mates a job and who's been totally useless.
Another good crony organisation gone, good. Now for the DfE Board clear out- at very least replace money men with people from industry.

Aren't art, music etc now in the expanded Ebacc thing? I guess damage was done by the first version of it, with only 5 subjects.
Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:I though bank bonuses were in December.
This one is in June apparently, which is normal for a bonus based on the financial year results.
That makes perfect sense. Wonder if I'm out of date imagining the bonus season.
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by RogerOThornhill »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
RogerOThornhill wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:Seems this week Labour are back on Education

"Labour unveils plans to aid training and recruitment of headteachers
Shadow education secretary Tristram Hunt to announce proposals for new schools training body and partnerships with business."

http://www.theguardian.com/education/20 ... adteachers" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Not surprising that they're trying to seize the initiative on education - the Tories week on it was so poor.

The arts getting downgraded was a direct consequence of the "You must do STEM subjects!!" of Gove and the appalling Truss.

Good to see that they're going to ditch the NCTL - that was always just a way of Gove giving one of his mates a job and who's been totally useless.
Another good crony organisation gone, good. Now for the DfE Board clear out- at very least replace money men with people from industry.

Aren't art, music etc now in the expanded Ebacc thing? I guess damage was done by the first version of it, with only 5 subjects.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-24521957" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
From 2016 there will be four league table measures for schools.

It will show pupils' achievements across their best eight subjects - including English and maths, three core English Baccalaureate subjects including history, geography, physics, chemistry and languages and three other subjects which can include art, music, drama and business.
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ohsocynical
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

John Wight ‏@JohnWight1 2 hrs2 hours ago

#Rifkind done up like a kipper by @C4Dispatches. What a mug. And this is the head of the intelligence committee? Bright as a blackout.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Ah, right, thanks.

Guess which of the 2 MP scandals is the headline in the DT?
Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Caron Lindsay. Story about Labour disagreements in The Sunday Times and Guardian!

http://www.libdemvoice.org/back-to-the- ... 44768.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It's pointed out that she didn't like the Guardian talking about disarray behind the scenes in the Lib Dems...

And of course a party who chucked out their last two leaders against their will shouldn't lay it on too thick.
Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

First @DailyMailUK/@ComResPolls poll: Tories up since Jan, Ukip on slide: CON 34 (+3) LAB 32 (+2) UKIP 13 (-4) LIB 8 (-) GRN 8 (+1)
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citizenJA
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by citizenJA »

TechnicalEphemera wrote:Reviewing the days posts from a secret location, I can't help but wonder what is going on with pollsters.

Ashcrofts national polls are all over the place, largely because he uses small sample sizes.
The other pollsters seem to have some very odd methodologies, it is almost as though they are adjusting the figures to reflect what they think the answer should be rather than on the basis of science. That Populus adjustment is huge, based on being more likely to vote; a question which is itself likely to suffer from untruthful answers.

The media behaviour, trumpeting every outlier as a major story and ignoring run of the mill polls must surely contribute. Pollsters must now be looking for wild swings to generate sales. As long as they get the last poll before the GE right nobody will care if they were wrong the rest of the time. To make it even more screwed up the media weaves polls that agree with the narrative together and sticks them on the front page, whilst quietly playing down contradictory polls.

It is buggered, I don't think the polls are accurate, we are into pin the tail on the donkey stuff.

Incidentally I noted in the FT that Rothschild's are sufficiently worried about a Labour win to consider moving their bonus payout from June to before the election.
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citizenJA
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by citizenJA »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Ah, right, thanks.

Guess which of the 2 MP scandals is the headline in the DT?
Not the Bus Pass Elvis party - please tell me it's not them.
Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 54s55 seconds ago
ENGLAND ONLY shares from ComRes/Mail poll
CON 36
LAB 32
LD 7
UKIP 14
GRN 9
A CON to LAB swing of 3.4% since GE10
I find that Green share a bit unlikely, given that we're a bunch of UKIPpy loons down here who are holding Scotland back.
Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Image

But I thought Gordo had flattened them with his "pensions raid"!

Though there of course remains much difference among pensioners.
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by RogerOThornhill »

Just saw Kim Howells being interviewed about the Rifkind stuff - he was the previous chair (2008-10) and he said that he couldn't work out how Rifkind had so much free time as there was so much reading to do...and all of it had to be done in situ - couldn't take it away and read it. And no he didn't have any outside jobs while doing it.
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ohsocynical
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

NumbrCrunchrPolitics ‏@NCPoliticsUK 39 mins39 minutes ago
Among ComRes phone polls:

Biggest Tory lead since 1st October 2010
Lowest UKIP % since the European Elections
Highest Green % ever
0 replies . 6 retweets 0 favourites
Reply Retweet6 Favourite
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Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 23 mins23 minutes ago
ENGLAND ONLY shares from ComRes/Mail poll
CON 36
LAB 32
LD 7
UKIP 14
GRN 9
A CON to LAB swing of 3.4% since GE10
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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citizenJA
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by citizenJA »

Polls are all over the place.
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citizenJA
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by citizenJA »

From the National Audit Office (NAO), an organisation I've had respect for. Their remit must be narrow indeed to come up with the report they've published with little fanfare nearly three weeks ago. I'm disgusted & have written to tell them so.

Increasing the effectiveness of tax collection: a stocktake of progress since 2010

http://www.nao.org.uk/report/increasing ... ince-2010/

“HMRC is among the strongest government departments in terms of managerial competence and its robustness in managing the risks to its essential function of tax collection. It now faces some significant challenges, however, if it is to harness new technology effectively and thereby exploit the data it collects. The Department must continue to adapt and learn from experience, and should ensure that it remains receptive to ideas from external stakeholders, including the NAO and Parliament, about how it could improve its performance.”

Amyas Morse, head of the National Audit Office, 6 February 2015
giselle97
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by giselle97 »

Well said over there Tubby: :clap:
Chris Manners 23rd Feb '15 - 10:00pm

Wow. Terrible. Rumour of politicians not getting on.

cf your lot chucking out two leaders via Parliamentary plots.

Chris Manners 23rd Feb '15 - 10:03pm

By the way, that seems to be two politicians disagreeing.

Where are the “factions”?
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citizenJA
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by citizenJA »

I wanted to add to my post regarding Osborne's performance responding to persistent, legitimate questions today in the House. This minister began a couple days ago with it's not my job, today struck out absurdly & said it was Labour's fault & finally made a show of new, tough plans for dealing with tax evasion.

What in the world is he thinking? Am I supposed to just whatever nevermind about this procedure? This is outrageous. His inconsistency, stupidity, astounding disengenous words & actions are reprehensible.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... t-47979762
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by RogerOThornhill »

I see Fraser Nelson is making an idiot of himself over education - not the first time either.

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Edward Davie ‏@EdDavie 4h4 hours ago
@FraserNelson it wasn't free schools that radically improved London's schools it was Labour investment
Fraser Nelson ‏@FraserNelson 3h3 hours ago
@EdDavie i'd say it was the Labour Academies programme, now disowner by, em, @LabourEoin
Right. 49 academies by 2010 out of 430 secondary schools so less than 10%.

And when were these opened?

2002.....2
2003.....4
2004.....4
2005.....4
2006.....9
2007....10
2008.....8
2009.....8

So overwhelmingly at the back end of the London Challenge then?

0/10 for research skills Fraser but 10/10 for ideology. See me after class.
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citizenJA
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by citizenJA »

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... t-47979762" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"...yes that's right, you smug Tory toads. HSBC are SHAMED by what they have done, so much so that billions have been wiped form their share price.

The giant sovereign con job is no friend to anyone other than a money raking elite who shamelessly thrive on debt.

This is not living within your means, but living by economic rules afforded by bankrupting the majority for the benefit of an elite, it's origins in Reagan, Thatcher and Whitelaw.

This has nothing to do with being an entrepreneur and everything to do with a perverse form of corporate totalitarianism. Yes that's right more in common with a corrupted communist era. The principle might be different, but we still arrive in the same place."
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by RogerOThornhill »

Jeez....that story about Straw in the Telegraph is so weak it's untrue.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/investi ... mmons.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
But in February 2013 Mr Mustoe celebrated a double success of being re-awarded a four-year contract to supply office furniture to Whitehall and local government, and a second, new deal to supply residential furniture for barracks and the homes of servicemen.

Both contracts were awarded by the Government Procurement Service, which comes under the auspices of the Cabinet Office. Senator described the office furniture contract as a “business crucial win” which would be worth between £60 million and £75 million over four years.

Mr Mustoe said that he approached Mr Straw with a job offer last year after learning that he was standing down as an MP. Mr Straw later “virtually agreed that he would be prepared to take up a role”.

Mr Straw, who denies any wrongdoing, insists that he helped Senator only because it employed a large number of people from his constituency. His involvement was therefore “entirely appropriate”.
So he helps out a local firm by getting access to the government, and then a year after they get the contract they ask him if he's interested in a position once he stands down?

Is it just me that can't see anything wrong with lobbying for a local firm? If the procurement service weren't impressed with the product they wouldn't have given them the contract - he is in opposition in any case.

:roll:
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giselle97
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by giselle97 »

Heh TechnicalEphemera and others re the Lenovo debacle.

I bought a Z50-70 in the John Lewis sale after Christmas, having returned a Tosh I just couldn't get on with.

Apart from this ghastly W8, I'm really happy with it - having thrown all the garbage out and put most of my own stuff on.

I followed your and Lenovo's instructions about Superfish which was confirmed as not installed and I also checked for the certificate which wasn't loaded either. I'm still nervous though, which is nothing new these days!

Oh, and thanks guys, for the photos of those magnificent flying machines -- have downloaded them for viewing regularly. :)
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Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Tweeted the number of academies to Fraser.

It does illustrate Marklu's point- create some schools yourself and you'll get credit for overall improvement if they all do well. If the others don't to as well as your favoured schools, you're still in credit, blah blah blocked by NUT elsewhere.
Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

What on earth do free schools have to do with councils closing schools?
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citizenJA
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by citizenJA »

"Osborne was helped by an anti-Balls heckling operation that was excessive even by Commons standards. But mainly he won because he engaged with Balls’ points, and answered them with partisan ruthlessness. He took the five questions Balls posed in a public letter to him and went through them, essentially arguing that it all went wrong under Gordon Brown. I will post a summary shortly."

- A.S. Blog
23 Feb 2015

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blo ... d52ffcebeb" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

RogerOThornhill wrote:Jeez....that story about Straw in the Telegraph is so weak it's untrue.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/investi ... mmons.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
But in February 2013 Mr Mustoe celebrated a double success of being re-awarded a four-year contract to supply office furniture to Whitehall and local government, and a second, new deal to supply residential furniture for barracks and the homes of servicemen.

Both contracts were awarded by the Government Procurement Service, which comes under the auspices of the Cabinet Office. Senator described the office furniture contract as a “business crucial win” which would be worth between £60 million and £75 million over four years.

Mr Mustoe said that he approached Mr Straw with a job offer last year after learning that he was standing down as an MP. Mr Straw later “virtually agreed that he would be prepared to take up a role”.

Mr Straw, who denies any wrongdoing, insists that he helped Senator only because it employed a large number of people from his constituency. His involvement was therefore “entirely appropriate”.
So he helps out a local firm by getting access to the government, and then a year after they get the contract they ask him if he's interested in a position once he stands down?

Is it just me that can't see anything wrong with lobbying for a local firm? If the procurement service weren't impressed with the product they wouldn't have given them the contract - he is in opposition in any case.

:roll:
Hang on, it's a local firm he helped?
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by giselle97 »

citizenJA wrote:"Osborne was helped by an anti-Balls heckling operation that was excessive even by Commons standards. But mainly he won because he engaged with Balls’ points, and answered them with partisan ruthlessness. He took the five questions Balls posed in a public letter to him and went through them, essentially arguing that it all went wrong under Gordon Brown. I will post a summary shortly."

- A.S. Blog
23 Feb 2015

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blo ... d52ffcebeb" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
When I heard that Balls was going up against the sneaky fart, I could have written about the outcome beforehand.
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citizenJA
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by citizenJA »

giselle97 wrote:
citizenJA wrote:"Osborne was helped by an anti-Balls heckling operation that was excessive even by Commons standards. But mainly he won because he engaged with Balls’ points, and answered them with partisan ruthlessness. He took the five questions Balls posed in a public letter to him and went through them, essentially arguing that it all went wrong under Gordon Brown. I will post a summary shortly."

- A.S. Blog
23 Feb 2015

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blo ... d52ffcebeb" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
When I heard that Balls was going up against the sneaky fart, I could have written about the outcome beforehand.
Mr. Balls has my respect for doing his job while being subjected to abusive misconduct in Parliament.
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Re: Monday, 23rd February 2015

Post by TheGrimSqueaker »

citizenJA wrote:"Osborne was helped by an anti-Balls heckling operation that was excessive even by Commons standards. But mainly he won because he engaged with Balls’ points, and answered them with partisan ruthlessness. He took the five questions Balls posed in a public letter to him and went through them, essentially arguing that it all went wrong under Gordon Brown. I will post a summary shortly."

- A.S. Blog
23 Feb 2015

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blo ... d52ffcebeb" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
So he didn't answer the questions, just trotted out the "it was all Labour's fault" line again? The fact that Andrew calls that as a win for Osborne tells you everything that is wrong with that paper, all about style of substance and utterly lightweight.

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