FlyTheNest

Morning all. Labour lead at 6 points on Yougov:

Latest YouGov / The Sun results 9th Sept -

Con 30%, (-1)
Lab 36%, (no change)
LD 8%, (no change)
UKIP 16%; (no change)

APP -24 (+3)

Jonathon Portes beats Toby Young with a big fact-stick: http://niesr.ac.uk/blog/stubborn-facts#.VA9pzmPpwx4

More good news. I'm reposting this from late last night.

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Working on the wild side.

And from that piece:


The shambolic, back of a fag packet government stays true to form .... how stupid - and potentially disastrous - was that instruction.

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Working on the wild side.

Well done to the hunt sabs, and to the local constabulary. This isn't about tackling TB, it is simply a new way of them getting their rocks off now they can't terrify foxes; frankly I'm all for arming the badgers.

Today's YouGov is interesting, the Tory vote share has dropped 3 points in the last week; maybe it is the Tories who are trending to zero?

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COWER BRIEF MORTALS. HO. HO. HO.

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 7h
Survation boss @DamianSurvation Tweets: "Results of our new IndyRef poll Sept 5-9 are just in and they are quite something!"

Good morning.

I've been reading Andrew Sparrow's blog on the Scottish Independence question. I can't see (thus far) why he had to go all the way to Scotland in order to report what he has been reporting on. It could just as easily have been done from anywhere. Still, it's early yet.

Paul Monaghan ‏@_PaulMonaghan 1m
Political Editor of @daily_record will release "VERY interesting" #indyref figures from Survation poll at 10.30pm. http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=e17 ... 321af3c49a …

Maybe a swing back to No ? Well, we'll know at 10.30 tonight.

Morning all.
My son brought me a pot of coffee and a puppy in bed this morning,sadly I didn't get much of a lie in as the pup started chasing one of the cats around my bedroom.
Andrew Sparrows blog has been taken over by the usual nats,spouting the usual nat nonsense.God,I am so hoping for a yes vote or Scotland will be given more and more to pacify it while the rest of the uk looks on.
It's a good job that Kate is pregnant again,will give the newspapers something to write about after the referendum.

I've seen allegations that an SNP MSP was encouraging 'yes' supporters to sign up to YouGov last spring.
If it's true, I'm curious to know whether it could have made any difference to their polling results. Surely polls can't be manipulated that easily?

Sounds like good clean bedroom fun Rebecca, as long as the coffee didn't end up on the floor.

Have to say, after reading some of the more extremist Nat twollop, if they make their bed, let them lie in it and tell them to shut up if they whinge when negotiations don't go their way.
Just feel sorry if it goes cockeyed and the big % who didn't want Yes also have to suffer the consequences of the Salmond-ist crap.

Going down to Pembrokeshire tomorrow for a Yes/No free day.
The only good side in our losing our sick cat [as well as her being at peace of course] is we can venture further from home again.

Isn't it amazing that anything to do with the referendum attracts 1000+ comments (as you say, mostly nat rubbish) whereas most articles are lucky(?) to get a third of that?

By the way a tenth of the baby belongs to Scotland - and I'm sure Eck would be quick to point out that it's not the tenth that needs its nappy changed.

They have put up a Reader's Edition, so we can discuss other things without getting swamped.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blo ... -september

I'm on the YouGov panel.

You could manipulate it easily. Several ways - if Yes thought not enough women were on side they could get their cybernats to register with YouGov as female, same with age group etc.
You could also lie about your political allegiance.

So, when the time is right Yes cheats [who've pretended to be Labour supporters or undecided about the vote] can suddenly tell You Gov they have had an epiphany and are now Yes.
[Obviously No supporters could do the same but of course they wouldn't ]

Still, as we are always told - the only poll that counts is the one on the day.
If there has been cheating it may rebound against them, a strong Yes showing in the polls may make people turn out for No.

Morning all.

Talking of YouGov I notice it's gone all Inception stylie today on its daily 3, polling on polling. Perhaps tomorrow it'll be polling on polling on polling

Chances of a readers edition BTL staying nat free? Hmm.

Thanks for the info. I didn't realise it could be that easy to manipulate results. As you say, it might shake 'no' voters out of any sense of complacency! (I get the impression that BT are not well enough organised to cheat on any significant scale )

I thought it was common knowledge that CyberNats had at least tried to sign up en masse to PanelBase?

There was a Twitter discussion about organising a Yes campaign sign-up to PanelBase due to the perception that there was a disproportionate number of no voters even by other polls. Panelbase then acted upon hearing this by closing all polling on the referendum to new joiners to stop any gerrymandering of the results by mass sign-ups of either persuasion. Panelbase themselves stated that new joiners prior to closure of membership to these polls had no significant impact on these polls so any narrowing between the camps can not be attributed to overweighting.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/panelbase-bans-new-members-from-independence-polls-1-3080830

Indeed - it was reported in the MSM some time ago. I understand Panelbase took the precaution of excluding Scottish registrations after a set date - although there are those who say the damage was already done!
The YouGov allegation only surfaced after their swing to 'yes', which is why I wondered if it was possible.

For all of the indy hysteria on all media fronts,I have yet to meet a single person actually talking about it without political forums.Even my ex husband,a Scot.Not even a mention.
What are you all experiencing?

Although not by Panelbase.

Would it be fair to say that Scottish independence is viewed rather negatively amongst the FTN denizens?

Rebecca, as the token Scot in my office I tend to be the focal point for discussion on this matter. It's viewed rather distantly in London, although the recent poll has sparked greater interest as secession becomes less unlikely.

Cameron was 16/1 to be replaced as leader by the end of the year just days ago, he is now 4/1, still can't see it though..

Mods, any idea what the ''article'' or whatever is below this thread? Urge anyone not to click on any of the links.

Hosie is an arse. Neil talking about uncertainty within the Scottish economy, his reply ''it's only uncertainty if it's talked up'' eh??

Next breath ''investors will flock to Scotland'' yep, in the race to the bottom, 3% off corporation tax, whilst still living in a socialist utopia.

I have heard it mentioned a bit, tbf - though that may be partly explainable by being rather close to the border here!

It looked like spam to me, so it's gone. And the user will also be gone in a few minutes...

Hello.

No - I don't view Scottish independence, per se, negatively. I'm obviously concerned about possible ramifications - both for the Scots and for the remainder of the UK, though, because I think that Alex Salmond views Scottish independence through the prisim of, well, Alex Salmond, and is pushing for it and carrying his supporters along in a cloud of unanswered questions. If the questions were properly answered (regardless of what those answers might be) and the Scots then went down the independence road (ie in knowledge of the facts) then I'd be more happy. Basically, I don't trust Alex Salmond. I think he is being irresponsible. As I said yesterday, I quite understand the antipathy of many Scots to what they see as the English establishment. But then let's not forget that a lot of English people aren't doing too well out of it, either! And that includes many people in London and the South East.

I would also be sorry, on a purely emotional level, to lose Scotland but that's a rather different matter. Not unimportant - but different.







Edited to add -

Actually - re the "what I said yesterday" thing. I don't actually think I did. I thought it and meant to say it but neglected to type it (it got overlooked in the rest of my general waffle). I think.

Do you start the conversation or is it just happening?I find it strange that nobody seems remotely interested.
As for my views on Scottish independence,I'm afraid to say I am of the goodbye and don't take anything with you school of thought.I left Scotland in 1992,and was very glad to get back down south.Have been a fan of independence ever since.
I didn't like the anti English rhetoric which was so common that people didn't even notice they were saying it.Hated the weather,the midges,my dreadful mother-in-law.
I don't believe for one moment that Scotland is a leftwing,kinder or fairer society,and I lived in four different towns.It was a shock to go from multi ethnic London to white,insular Scotland.I hate the pro yessrs vilification of Gordon Brown,Scotland should be proud of him.
And(oh dear,rant nearly over)why all the crap about England = Tory?And what's all the crap about 'forcing'the Uk to join in a currency union with an iScotland?Heard Salmond say that.
So,what I'm saying,as one denizon of FTN is that I am hoping for a yes vote,but hate the yes campaigns' nasty mix of expecting to get everything they want from the Uk as they shout Freedom!Evil Westminster,yada yada yada.

Ed Miliband's speech in Scotland is apparently being broadcast on BBC News24 at 2pm today. Whether it will be covered in full, though, I know not.

Investors won't be flocking to Scotland in any great number from what I can see. But a fair number of fairly lucrative firms will probably head south give the uncertainty over the issues associated with the currency.

And for anybody with the stamina for it, there's an online debate between Darling and Salmond on Mumsnet at 1:45.

http://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/mumsnet_live_events/a2179972-Scottish-Referendum-debate-Alistair-Darling-and-Alex-Salmond-Wednesday-September-10th-1-45-2-45pm

They'll probably cut away and put on a week old edition of ''Click'' or something, Brown's speech Monday night wasn't covered in full, pathetic.

I see that John Major has been exhumed to claim this is all Labour's fault. Where does he think we would be now if Scotland *hadn't* been granted home rule, FFS?

Salmond and Murdoch, a close relationship, not my words, Leveson's.

http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/scottish- ... dependence

From Tory Mark Pritchard:



Party in disarray.

To much talk about Major (spit) today. His very name gives me palpitations of rage and takes me right back to Black Wednesday, a day engraved on my heart.
I posted this on the readers edition thread about him (spit) but its right at the end so I'm posting it here as well

This is how I remember the incompetent (we were a midges balls away from losing our house - 15% interest rate if held for a week would have done for us)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

And this is how I remember Lamont and Cameron (scroll down to the photograph that everyone seem to have forgotten about, to remember who was lurking in the background as Lamont's spad.)
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetory ... areer.html

spit spit spit

Hiya PF! I agree regarding the unanswered questions however would you not agree that the Yes campaign has been, idiotically imo, hampered by an attitude of "no pre-negotiation" by the UK govt in answering those questions. Any discussion of what an independent Scotland would look like with regards to services, shared institutions etc is unable to be dealt with on a factual basis until those items have been negotiated after a "yes" vote. If both sides could have sat down and discussed then both camps would have far more information to work with and be able to make an informed choice. However, as the other mainstay of the BT campaign is "uncertainty" (not an idiotic angle to argue, either) then obviously discussing what a post-independence Scotland could look like would be unhelpful to that end.

It's politics, but bad politics, and there's been plenty on both sides.

Salmond & co's idiotic positioning today that the "fight" is between "Team Scotland" and "Team Westminster" alienates "no" voters as not Scottish which is patent BS and runs roughshod over what has been, in the main, an extremely civil and engaged re-energisation of politics within Scotland. If, as predicted, the turnout is c80%, it is a clear indication that the subject of regional politics, whether in the framework or devolution or independence, is one that is needed not just within Scotland, but within the rest of the UK as well.

Rebecca: I'm sorry to hear that your experience of Scotland and Scots was so desperately negative and that you know believe that Scots should just leave and not "take anything with them". Not even their share of the deficit?

And now it seems that Salmond is comparing an independent Scotland to post-apartheid South Africa.

Almost unbelievably offensive on all levels

I think that the debts should be added up,the assets added up .Then if there are less assets than debt iScotland should get nothing and pay the remainder.Obviously if iScotland is in the black it should get what is owed.
Here is an example of my experience of the fairer and more democratic Scots;my daughter is autistic.She was an enchanting child but couldn't talk much.When she was 6 her scottish granny refused to see her(and my son ) again because she was'difficult to communicate with'.My daughter was heartbroken.
Now,sure,Scotland has some very beautiful coast and countryside,but when the sun shines the midges bite.Prefer Northumbria.

Really sorry to hear your lovely old cat has gone yahyah. Sorry if you told us before and I missed it. The oldy cats are IMO the most wonderful moggies. Don't want to utter platitudes at you but ... you must have given her a lovely life and looked after her so well. I wish we could all grow old as gracefully as cats (it's a fur thing, I believe) and have the same loving care.

_________________
Working on the wild side.

Trouble is, the two biggest questions have been answered - it's just that the nats don't like what they've been told. Viviane Reding answered the EU question in her letter to the Scottish Government (we would have to apply, under article 49, for membership of the EU - the implications of that are set out in the EU rules). The currency union question has been answered by everybody and their dogs.
Adam Tomkins (professor of law at Glasgow University) has set out the legal difference between institutions (which remain the property of E/W/NI) and assets/liabilities (which are shared, subject to negotiation).
IMO, most of the unanswered questions pale into insignificance compared with the EU and CU.

Having said that, there might have been some merit in a two stage referendum - (a) do we want independence and if we do, then (b) do we still want it after the terms have been negotiated.

Agree re midges. Your MIL sounds like a real piece of work.

I think - for me - it feels rather like Scotland walking out the door and deserting the UK. All this "government we didn't vote for" gets my goat because lots of the UK didn't vote for them either, its only the LibDems that handed the government of this country to the tories. Now, those who I thought were our closest friends and allies against the tories are walking away and leaving us to sink or swim in tory mire. That hurts, and if the election IS post postponed for a year I will never forgive Scotland for what they will have done to "us" the people of the UK, the sick, disabled, the unemployed who need ride of this "government" asap. Not that it will matter to Scotland. The referendum campaign has left a bitter taste, and I now understand that the Scots hate us, something that had never occurred to me before.
So good luck to them, and if their new country falls down around their ears my only reaction will be - Oops bit of a wrong un there, but you were warned.

(Sorry if that's harsh or simplistic but I still have my John Major (spit) rage palpations and will probably regret writing that later)

I'm not sure that there's a place for "shared institutions" if Scotland is serious about independence, to be honest. At least not at this stage. I think Alex Salmond should have plans in place for going it alone - and should other, mutually beneficial alternatives emerge post-independence then that's another matter.

Sorry about your cat yahyah but I'm sure she had a good life with you xxx

Ouch.

@yahyah

Hello.

I'm also someone who missed news of your cat. When you referred to her earlier, I was a bit perplexed.

Anyway, I'm sorry to hear the news although it wasn't entirely unexpected. Hope you're ok.

Couln't agree more. The SNP got their majority in Holyrood with 46% of the vote (on a 50% turnout). It's not the government the majority of Scottish voters wanted.

I didn't get the Scottish government I voted for. On the other hand, I voted LD in the GE (sorry, it won't happen again) and sort of got the government I voted for, but now I don't want it

There were over 400,000 Tory votes in Scotland in the GE. While I don't agree with them, they're entitled to their say, despite what Salmond implies.

"I care about my country more than my party" - for once, a good line from Cameron.

Shame that so few - either side of the border - will actually believe him. But, hey, that where a relentless diet of Crosbyism will get you

Currently shared, to be clearer. I doubt that continuing to share the civil service etc is workable, never mind a good idea.

I must confess, I'm suspicious of yes supporters who try to conflate England with Tory, and I hope that Scots are rather more sensible than that. What surprises me is the supine acceptance I've seen that independence in and of itself is an unrestrained good and that any issues can be swept under the carpet or dealt with as necessary. If independence happens and the consequences are the ones that I foresee, the outcome for ordinary Scottish people could be pretty dreadful. For yes supporters to deride the very real potential problems - that might well affect services and living standards very noticeably - as 'project fear' is insulting.

If Scots wish to leave, they know how to vote, but it is a fearfully desperate step.