Monday 30th March 2015: Election Is Go...

[ohsocynical]

david bush retweeted
Jack Bridger ‏@jack_bridger 11 mins11 minutes ago

Grant Shapps getting absolutely destroyed on #newsnight. I love it

The level of Tory incompetence is staggering. I'm increasingly gobsmacked. Even though I've been saying they have no acceptable policy they ought to be able to put up a better show than they have.

They've been sending Shapps around to do a lot of interviews this week. Shapps of all people. He has a real problem separating fact from fiction. Or perhaps that's why?

[TheGrimSqueaker]

Ian ‏@Mancman10 16 mins16 minutes ago Manchester, England
Tonight's YouGov/Sun poll:

LAB 35% (~1)
CON 35% (+3)
UKIP 12% (~1)
LDEM 8% (=)
GRN 5% (~1)
#GE2015

I find it crazy. THe Tories have been massively destructive and still they manage to poll reasonably well. I'd love to see a region by region breakdown, a la the Welsh poll.

The regional polls show what nonsense the national polls really are; compare the recent London polling, for example, with the London section on a YouGov national poll and you'd think you were looking at two different regions. At the end of the day only one poll matters, and that is the one I am working for.

[TechnicalEphemera]

Ian ‏@Mancman10 16 mins16 minutes ago Manchester, England
Tonight's YouGov/Sun poll:

LAB 35% (~1)
CON 35% (+3)
UKIP 12% (~1)
LDEM 8% (=)
GRN 5% (~1)
#GE2015

I find it crazy. THe Tories have been massively destructive and still they manage to poll reasonably well. I'd love to see a region by region breakdown, a la the Welsh poll.

You need to poll regions, not look at the cross-breaks in individual polls.

However we know the Tory vote is stacked in the South East. We also know that Labour is doing pretty well in London and Wales but poorly in Scotland. Now that SNP vote is probably costing a few points, maybe 2-3.

Factor that back in you get Labour 38, Tory 35 which is probably believable.

Another question is demographics and assumptions on voter turnout. We see good polls for the Tories where they are behind in every demographic except the older group. How is this weighted in these polls? What is the assumed likelihood to vote weighting compared with past turnout?

I think the polls really don't tell the story here, it has really been neck and neck for a while, things may not change that much in the campaign. This has become a ground war in the marginals. Labour have to target those who are losing out and offer them something, they need to go large on cuts, NHS, low wages and high rents. There are many home owners who have kids that can't afford to buy, target them. Scare the Green voters into tactical voting (actually Osborne and IDS have done that job). Keep getting nice, reasonable Ed in front of people.

[LadyCentauria]

Love it!

I'm going to have to think up some new material now. Here's one:

Today UKIP MEP Lobelia Sackville-Baggins angrily denied stealing silver spoons from Bag-End for party gain. "They were part of my allowance"

Keep 'em coming (and anyone else)!

Need to be a max of 140 characters.

How about:

Got the better of that bounder Miliband today. Told him he smelt. Ha!

Full text of UKIP Hobbiton Mayor Odo Proudfoot's Campaign Speech: "Proudfoots!!!"

[LadyCentauria]

david bush retweeted
Jack Bridger ‏@jack_bridger 11 mins11 minutes ago

Grant Shapps getting absolutely destroyed on #newsnight. I love it

The level of Tory incompetence is staggering. I'm increasingly gobsmacked. Even though I've been saying they have no acceptable policy they ought to be able to put up a better show than they have.

They've been sending Shapps around to do a lot of interviews this week. Shapps of all people. He has a real problem separating fact from fiction. Or perhaps that's why?

I saw that. Evan Davies was very strong against him.

[ohsocynical]

Mark Ferguson ‏@Markfergusonuk 3 hrs3 hours ago

Bloody hell >> UKIP election candidate quits after claiming Israel should ‘kidnap Obama’ - New candidate announced

The Kipper I mentioned on an earlier post? Gone

[pk1]

Somebody (Ohso ?) mentioned a kipper tweeting about wanting Obama to be sent to Israel.

According to the Jewish Chronicle, he has resigned.

http://www.thejc.com/news/uk-news/13298 ... dnap-obama" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Edit to add note to self - refresh page before typing posts....

[refitman]

david bush retweeted
Jack Bridger ‏@jack_bridger 11 mins11 minutes ago

Grant Shapps getting absolutely destroyed on #newsnight. I love it

The level of Tory incompetence is staggering. I'm increasingly gobsmacked. Even though I've been saying they have no acceptable policy they ought to be able to put up a better show than they have.

They've been sending Shapps around to do a lot of interviews this week. Shapps of all people. He has a real problem separating fact from fiction. Or perhaps that's why?

I saw that. Evan Davies was very strong against him.

For those who missed it, from 6mins: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0 ... t-30032015" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Tubby Isaacs]

Wow. He's going for Shapps on his business past.

[TechnicalEphemera]

david bush retweeted
Jack Bridger ‏@jack_bridger 11 mins11 minutes ago

Grant Shapps getting absolutely destroyed on #newsnight. I love it

The level of Tory incompetence is staggering. I'm increasingly gobsmacked. Even though I've been saying they have no acceptable policy they ought to be able to put up a better show than they have.

They've been sending Shapps around to do a lot of interviews this week. Shapps of all people. He has a real problem separating fact from fiction. Or perhaps that's why?

I saw that. Evan Davies was very strong against him.

For those who missed it, from 6mins: http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0 ... t-30032015" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

We can laugh at Shapps, but his plan is clear.

Repeat the words - David Cameron, economic success, stability.
Ed Miliband, tax rises, chaos Alex Salmond.

That is all the Tories are going to do for five weeks.

Now Labour needs to hammer relentlessly at those lies not laugh at them.

Labour needs to repeat, Cameron friend of the corrupt rich, NHS destroyed, end of free healthcare, massive cuts, no human rights, referendum chaos, enemy of the UK.

Get Powell to repeat every day, while Miliband talks aspiration, hope, fairness.

Rinse and repeat.

[Tubby Isaacs]

It's the economy though, or mediamacro.

You won't hear anyone point out that Osborne supported Brown's spending plans.

[refitman]

Wow. He's going for Shapps on his business past.

You would think, with Evan being a former economics correspondent, he would have pulled Shapps up on "as bust as Greece". Wouldn't you?

[TechnicalEphemera]

It's the economy though, or mediamacro.

You won't hear anyone point out that Osborne supported Brown's spending plans.

No it is the NHS, cuts and low wages. This is an election, the media has to report equally, Labour gets to drive the agenda as much as the Tories. Also go for ambush techniques and stark messages - laugh at the probation machines, casually point out that the Tories are risking Your Life and Property by not supervising offenders!!!!!

[RogerOThornhill]

It's the economy though, or mediamacro.

You won't hear anyone point out that Osborne supported Brown's spending plans.

yes, the Tories want to fight this on their record so point out that their record isn't that great.

Go back to what they said they'd do in 2010 about Darling's plan - a disaster then but which they now cite as a success.

Incidentally has anyone managed to find their "£20bn welfare savings" or is that the usual "make stuff up that no-one can prove" like we used to do if pushed to convince that we'd actually manage to save money on something.

[Tubby Isaacs]

It's the economy though, or mediamacro.

You won't hear anyone point out that Osborne supported Brown's spending plans.

yes, the Tories want to fight this on their record so point out that their record isn't that great.

Go back to what they said they'd do in 2010 about Darling's plan - a disaster then but which they now cite as a success.

Incidentally has anyone managed to find their "£20bn welfare savings" or is that the usual "make stuff up that no-one can prove" like we used to do if pushed to convince that we'd actually manage to save money on something.

Don't think anyone has. But they never get asked about them.

[LadyCentauria]

Wow. He's going for Shapps on his business past.

You would think, with Evan being a former economics correspondent, he would have pulled Shapps up on "as bust as Greece". Wouldn't you?

I'd have hoped so – and continue to hope that someone will do, long before this election is done and dusted!

[pk1]

It's the economy though, or mediamacro.

You won't hear anyone point out that Osborne supported Brown's spending plans.

yes, the Tories want to fight this on their record so point out that their record isn't that great.

Go back to what they said they'd do in 2010 about Darling's plan - a disaster then but which they now cite as a success.

Incidentally has anyone managed to find their "£20bn welfare savings" or is that the usual "make stuff up that no-one can prove" like we used to do if pushed to convince that we'd actually manage to save money on something.

Don't think anyone has. But they never get asked about them.

It's £12bn, not 20.

Cathy Newman had a damn good go at getting an answer tonight on c4 but evasion is the order of the year.

Marr tried and failed hopelessly yesterday.

[Tubby Isaacs]

The £20bn is what they claim they've already saved.

[pk1]

The £20bn is what they claim they've already saved.

I thought you two were talking about the cuts to come, not what has already happened.