Thursday 9th April 2015

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TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

LadyCentauria wrote:
RogerOThornhill wrote:
rearofthestore wrote: I do hope this trend continues. What will NickyB make of it?
It'll be because people are still on holiday - that's his latest excuse.
Oh, so that's what a moving weighted average is then: planeloads of tourists and their luggage off on jolly hols – and you still can't get Watney's Red Barrel 'cause you're stuck on the runway...
You wouldn't want Watneys Red Barrel. Have a nice British (or American) craft ale instead.

The weighted moving average is actually a valid concept, but Nicky B stole it from Nate Silver. It basically averages all the polls within a time window but places additional emphasis on more recent polls.

However where I part company with the muppet is his concept that it has a trend that can be predicted. It doesn't, polls do not have long term trends, they react to events. So he draws arbitrary lines and fits his average to that, hence his belief in the famous crossover point. I call this extrapolating so far that you run out of common sense.
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ohsocynical
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

Labour Whips retweeted
Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 47 mins47 minutes ago

The tables and methodology of internal polling of marginal seats by the Tories have not been shared with candidates.

I'm guessing this is bad because it was reTweeted by Labour Whips...
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
utopiandreams
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by utopiandreams »

PorFavor wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:Whoops!
Big questions for Boris over billion dollar property deal

http://www.channel4.com/news/boris-john ... lbert-dock
Is there anything new floating about on this? It's good to not let these things be forgotten, though. Short memories are relied upon...
I was going to respond with something about Channel 4, PorFavor, then noticed the link that ohsocynical provided so I Googled (only a quick search) and didn't find anything more recent apart from Dec 2014 where ABP were going to sue Michael Crick for his report. Silly me closed the page now but can be found easily enough for those interested. It is of course possible that people are steering away from this story because of such threat, but presumably the Channel 4 News team stand by it. Otherwise wouldn't it have been pulled from their site?

Edit: I see that ohso has already Googled. Still stand by what I say though.
Last edited by utopiandreams on Thu 09 Apr, 2015 8:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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PorFavor
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by PorFavor »

Just to be irrelevant -

Is anyone here following the Hatton Garden safety deposit box robbery story? The police's main concern seems to be that the robbers didn't tidy up before they made off with the loot.
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by Hobiejoe »

PorFavor wrote:Just to be irrelevant -

Is anyone here following the Hatton Garden safety deposit box robbery story? The police's main concern seems to be that the robbers didn't tidy up before they made off with the loot.
Maybe they're taking a similar approach to the Feds with Capone and the tax charges, and plan on prosecuting them for littering.
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frightful_oik
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by frightful_oik »

LadyCentauria wrote:
RogerOThornhill wrote:
rearofthestore wrote: I do hope this trend continues. What will NickyB make of it?
It'll be because people are still on holiday - that's his latest excuse.
Oh, so that's what a moving weighted average is then: planeloads of tourists and their luggage off on jolly hols – and you still can't get Watney's Red Barrel 'cause you're stuck on the runway...
Lady Centauria, you are Mr Smoketoomuch and I claim my Party Seven.
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Eric_WLothian
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by Eric_WLothian »

PorFavor wrote:Just to be irrelevant -

Is anyone here following the Hatton Garden safety deposit box robbery story? The police's main concern seems to be that the robbers didn't tidy up before they made off with the loot.
Just can't get the staff these days. :lol:
utopiandreams
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by utopiandreams »

TechnicalEphemera wrote:... I call this extrapolating so far that you run out of common sense.
I feel you are being far too kind, TechnicalEphemera.
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tinyclanger2
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by tinyclanger2 »

Diane James (UKIP) in praise of a) Vladimir Putin and b) Nicola Sturgeon.
Jason Groves @JasonGroves1
Follow
Ukip's Diane James says she 'admires' Putin. Lib Dem Lynne Featherstone says she's 'not sure' Nato shd defend eastern Europe. Incredible
John Stevens ✔ @johnestevens
Follow
After praising Putin, Diane James is praising Nicola Sturgeon... that might not be a compliment @LBC
9:12 PM - 9 Apr 2015
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utopiandreams
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by utopiandreams »

PorFavor wrote:Just to be irrelevant -

Is anyone here following the Hatton Garden safety deposit box robbery story? The police's main concern seems to be that the robbers didn't tidy up before they made off with the loot.
Is that a euphemism for defecated on the floor, PorFavor?

Edit: genuine question. Should that be an euphemism? I nearly put that when I wrote it but it just seemed wrong when you verbalise. It's like an hotel, which is the proper form even if we don't drop our aitches.
Last edited by utopiandreams on Thu 09 Apr, 2015 8:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tinyclanger2
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by tinyclanger2 »

:shock:
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Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

RogerOThornhill wrote:Here's the link to the Labour education manifesto...haven't read it yet.

http://www.labouremail.org.uk/files/upl ... 801cba.pdf

Toady's written an article for the Spectator about what Labour will do but don't bother reading it as it's junk.
I might read Marklu on Toady though.
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TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

ohsocynical wrote:Labour Whips retweeted
Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 47 mins47 minutes ago

The tables and methodology of internal polling of marginal seats by the Tories have not been shared with candidates.

I'm guessing this is bad because it was reTweeted by Labour Whips...
There is an undercurrent around the polling fraternity at the moment, if you have a look at Smithsons timeline you will see it. I can only see part of it because I don't use Twitter.

Smithson seems to be refusing to quote some polling figures, I guess these, because he says they are not transparent. There are rules to be followed because releasing opinion poll data that is inaccurate can be viewed as trying to manipulate public opinion.

I speculate that the Tories have polling showing them doing well in key marginals, but nobody will talk about it because they won't release the data behind the figures.
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ohsocynical
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

Desperate' Tory plot to organise own letter from doctors exposed in bombshell leaked email

http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/generalel ... ar-AAaEPj9
Whoooo. Even in the Telegraph!
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
PorFavor
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by PorFavor »

utopiandreams wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Just to be irrelevant -

Is anyone here following the Hatton Garden safety deposit box robbery story? The police's main concern seems to be that the robbers didn't tidy up before they made off with the loot.
Is that a euphemism for defecated on the floor, PorFavor?

Edit: genuine question. Should that be an euphemism? I nearly put that when I wrote it but it just seemed wrong when you verbalise. It's like an hotel, which is the proper form even if we don't drop our aitches.

No - it's not a euphemism. They've been going on endlessly about how the floor is littered with empty safety deposit boxes and discarded power tools. They haven't actually moaned about the dust yet - apparently the robbers broke in through a wall - but I'm sure they'll get round to it. What they'll say when they look behind the 'frig' is anybody's guess.
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LadyCentauria
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by LadyCentauria »

pk1 wrote:ITV news has done a piece on the pension changes & contacted various firms to find out what effect, if any, the new rules has made.

Phoenix Group (5m customers) report 65% of calls were from people inquiring about withdrawing their entire pension pot

Fidelity (1m customers) report 75% of calls were from people inquiring about withdrawing their entire pension pot

Hargreaves Lansdown (no number of customers given) said 31% called about taking a lump sum with 8% wanting to take it all out

Surely this wasn't what they anticipated when Webb & Osborne came up with this wheeze.
It might well have been. But it'll be interesting to see what percentages of people do withdraw their entire pension pots once the tax ramifications have been explained. Plus, I don't think anyone's explained (or possibly even knows) how the rules on Deprivation of Capital will affect entitlement to any income-related element of their future State Pensions.
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by RogerOThornhill »

Guardian headline for tomorrow is

The day the polls turned

:clap:

Here's a bet - NickyB will either (i) not turn up or (ii) stick a grudging two liner on an obscure thread where hardly anyone will notice it.

I noticed that Open Seas/Tweety went AWOL as well. Sanguine's heart isn't in it and notso seems to have vanished.
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Eric_WLothian
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by Eric_WLothian »

PorFavor wrote:What they'll say when they look behind the 'frig' is anybody's guess.
Puts on Larry Grayson voice: "Oooh... just look at the muck in 'ere" :lol:
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TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

We may have had the UKIP porn star but I did like this bit from the Indy.
As well as running for the party in the local elections, Mr Langley is the vice chairman of Ukip’s Bristol branch.
A clear typo Mr Langley is presumably Chairman of vice at UKIP's Bristol branch.
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AngryAsWell
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by AngryAsWell »

Not seen one of these before, its like a power point on twitter, just keep clicking the arrow on the side to see all pages - its good :)
A recap of today: the Tory campaign is in panic mode: https://storify.com/UKLabourParty/tory- ... panic-mode" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
ohsocynical
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

Is the Tory Trident row an example of a ‘dead cat’ strategy?

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehous ... -strategy/
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by Hobiejoe »

RogerOThornhill wrote:Guardian headline for tomorrow is

The day the polls turned

:clap:

Here's a bet - NickyB will either (i) not turn up or (ii) stick a grudging two liner on an obscure thread where hardly anyone will notice it.

I noticed that Open Seas/Tweety went AWOL as well. Sanguine's heart isn't in it and notso seems to have vanished.
It's even better to look at....here you go:

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AngryAsWell
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by AngryAsWell »

George Eaton ‏@georgeeaton · 2 hrs2 hours ago
Labour putting 60 more organisers into the field (adding to existing 300) now manifesto is complete.
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by AngryAsWell »

David Cameron on @BBCLookNorth admits some of the apprenticeships announced today are already existing jobs.
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by Spacedone »

And here's the latest in the Get Ed campaign.

Ed Miliband was dating senior BBC economics journalist Stephanie Flanders when he was at the Treasury
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... asury.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
ohsocynical
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 4 mins4 minutes ago
3 more polls to go today

ComRes/Phone for Mail at 10pm
YouGov/Times Scotland at 10pm
YouGov/Sun national at about 10.30
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by PorFavor »

Spacedone wrote:And here's the latest in the Get Ed campaign.

Ed Miliband was dating senior BBC economics journalist Stephanie Flanders when he was at the Treasury
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... asury.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yes - but they've disinterred an old story there.
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

PorFavor wrote:
Spacedone wrote:And here's the latest in the Get Ed campaign.

Ed Miliband was dating senior BBC economics journalist Stephanie Flanders when he was at the Treasury
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... asury.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yes - but they've disinterred an old story there.
Didn't we already know this?
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by Spacedone »

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
Spacedone wrote:And here's the latest in the Get Ed campaign.

Ed Miliband was dating senior BBC economics journalist Stephanie Flanders when he was at the Treasury
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... asury.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yes - but they've disinterred an old story there.
Didn't we already know this?
Not sure that matters in a smear campaign.

BTL is pretty universally despairing at how petty this stuff is.
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by Spacedone »

Paul Mason not very complimentary about the article either. :D
Paul Mason ‏@paulmasonnews 19 mins19 minutes ago
One day, if you grow up to have the byline Chief Political Correspondent, do you want to be writing **** like this?
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by danesclose »

Spacedone wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
Yes - but they've disinterred an old story there.
Didn't we already know this?
Not sure that matters in a smear campaign.

BTL is pretty universally despairing at how petty this stuff is.
Paul Mason on Twitter is fairly scathing as well:
Paul Mason.jpg
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LadyCentauria
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by LadyCentauria »

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
LadyCentauria wrote:
RogerOThornhill wrote: It'll be because people are still on holiday - that's his latest excuse.
Oh, so that's what a moving weighted average is then: planeloads of tourists and their luggage off on jolly hols – and you still can't get Watney's Red Barrel 'cause you're stuck on the runway...
You wouldn't want Watneys Red Barrel. Have a nice British (or American) craft ale instead.

The weighted moving average is actually a valid concept, but Nicky B stole it from Nate Silver. It basically averages all the polls within a time window but places additional emphasis on more recent polls.

However where I part company with the muppet is his concept that it has a trend that can be predicted. It doesn't, polls do not have long term trends, they react to events. So he draws arbitrary lines and fits his average to that, hence his belief in the famous crossover point. I call this extrapolating so far that you run out of common sense.
Ah, thanks for explaining that (which you've probably done before but I'd missed it or forgotten!) And I'll stick with tea ;)

[youtube]Yz2LaJOVAiA[/youtube]

With apols to @frightful_oik who has already posted the link to the sketch I've embedded here...
Last edited by LadyCentauria on Thu 09 Apr, 2015 9:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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RogerOThornhill
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by RogerOThornhill »

The Stephanie Falnders / Ed Miliband thing/fling?

yes...it was in the telegraph nearly 4 years ago and probably before that even.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvan ... borne.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Flanders, who has dated – although not simultaneously – Ed Miliband and Ed Balls, has form.
Seriously, who cares?
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

Teresa Crawford retweeted
Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 4 hrs4 hours ago
Prof John Curtice reckons that LAB could win majority with 5% GB vote lead even with current Scots problems. Latest polls in that territory
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by LadyCentauria »

frightful_oik wrote:
LadyCentauria wrote:
RogerOThornhill wrote: It'll be because people are still on holiday - that's his latest excuse.
Oh, so that's what a moving weighted average is then: planeloads of tourists and their luggage off on jolly hols – and you still can't get Watney's Red Barrel 'cause you're stuck on the runway...
Lady Centauria, you are Mr Smoketoomuch and I claim my Party Seven.
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Curses! My secret is out! :rofl:
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by PorFavor »

tinyclanger2 wrote:edited in case my message, in itself, breached football magic rules
Ok - what are "football magic rules", please? Is it a "look away now if you (eg find football boring)" things?
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by PorFavor »

RogerOThornhill wrote:The Stephanie Falnders / Ed Miliband thing/fling?

yes...it was in the telegraph nearly 4 years ago and probably before that even.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvan ... borne.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Flanders, who has dated – although not simultaneously – Ed Miliband and Ed Balls, has form.
Seriously, who cares?



What? You mean you don't?
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by Spacedone »

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1 min1 minute ago

After last week's 4% CON lead tonight's ComRes/Mail phone poll has
Con 34% (-2)
Lab 33% (+1)
Lib Dem 12% (+3)
UKIP 12% (NC)
+3 for the Lib Dems? Right...
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by Spacedone »

Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 1 min1 minute ago
Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead
(compared to last week)
SNP 49 +3
Lab 25 -4
Con 18 +2
LD 4 +1
Didn't YouGov just change their methodology again?
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

Spacedone wrote:
Sam Coates Times ‏@SamCoatesTimes 1 min1 minute ago
Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead
(compared to last week)
SNP 49 +3
Lab 25 -4
Con 18 +2
LD 4 +1
Didn't YouGov just change their methodology again?
Recently I read someone mention that YouGov always changed their methodology just before the GE.
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 32 secs33 seconds ago
Comres/itv/mail has Conservatives ahead by 1%, phone poll, but lead down 2.

Con 34,
lab 33,
Libs 12,
UKIP 12...

Good news for Clegg. Up 3
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by PorFavor »

ohsocynical wrote:Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 32 secs33 seconds ago
Comres/itv/mail has Conservatives ahead by 1%, phone poll, but lead down 2.

Con 34,
lab 33,
Libs 12,
UKIP 12...

Good news for Clegg. Up 3
Great beat combo the Clegg Up 3. It's rumoured that the lead singer might be leaving in May, though.


Edited to add an "r"
Last edited by PorFavor on Thu 09 Apr, 2015 10:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by RogerOThornhill »

Reading that Labour education manifesto, I'd say the days of academization is over.
Simply changing the structure of schools, turning them into academies or setting up new Free Schools, has failed to
deliver high standards. Free Schools are failing at a greater rate than other schools, one in five academies is
underperforming and whole areas have been left to languish.
Labour understands that simply changing a school’s structure is not enough; raising standards requires local oversight of school performance, help for struggling schools and great teaching and leadership. Most of all it requires a shared local mission to turn things around. So we will end the centralisation of powers in education, giving all schools the freedoms to innovate currently only granted to some.

We will also introduce new Directors of School Standards, appointed locally and with a remit to tackle underperformance
and respond to the views of parents. Building on the success of London Challenge, Directors of School Standards will build collaboration between schools, identify problems and intervene early to help fix them. To put an end to low expectations and chronic underperformance each local area will agree its own ‘Standards Challenge’ – an area-wide school improvement plan including a new public target for raising standards and attainment locally, for which the Director of School Standards
will be accountable.
Directors of School Standards will also be responsible for commissioning new schools where there is a local shortage
of places, encouraging innovative bids from established providers, good local authorities, parents, teachers and
entrepreneurs. Labour will end the underperforming Free Schools programme and the wasteful practice of building schools in areas without a shortage of school places. This money will instead be spent where it is needed so Labour can deliver enough school places to cap infant classes at 30 pupils or under.
So...

1. No need to convert as 'freedom' will be available to all.
2. Local authorities able to open schools if local director of schools standards thinks they're good enough. There are plenty of really good LAs that should be allowed to continue as they were without the ideological restriction that we have now.
3. End of the New Schools Network.
4. Decent academy trusts allowed to continue and maybe expand but I imagine only in their local area - not all over England as is the case now

Putting the academy genie back in the local authority bottle was never going to be a runner - too time consuming and too costly. In any case, faith schools were never really part of LAs anyway.

That's about as good as I could have hoped for.
Last edited by RogerOThornhill on Thu 09 Apr, 2015 10:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

YouGov have form in Scotland, so I am not hugely convinced. I would like to see a poll from a more reputable polling organisation up there. I think it is going to take time for the realisation of SNP policy insanity to filter through (if it does).
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by AngryAsWell »

Any ideas what this means?
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects · 40s41 seconds ago
Are you being selective with polls today?

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

PorFavor wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 32 secs33 seconds ago
Comres/itv/mail has Conservatives ahead by 1%, phone poll, but lead down 2.

Con 34,
lab 33,
Libs 12,
UKIP 12...

Good news for Clegg. Up 3
Great beat combo the Clegg Up 3. It's rumoured that the lead singer might be leaving in May, though.


Edited to add an "r"
That is a poll that says outlier. Who answers a phone these days?
Release the Guardvarks.
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AngryAsWell
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by AngryAsWell »

Mark Ferguson ‏@Markfergusonuk · 18s18 seconds ago
BIG SPLASH TOMORROW - Queen’s “Secret Relationship” with Prince Philip

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PorFavor
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by PorFavor »

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam 32 secs33 seconds ago
Comres/itv/mail has Conservatives ahead by 1%, phone poll, but lead down 2.

Con 34,
lab 33,
Libs 12,
UKIP 12...

Good news for Clegg. Up 3
Great beat combo the Clegg Up 3. It's rumoured that the lead singer might be leaving in May, though.


Edited to add an "r"
That is a poll that says outlier. Who answers a phone these days?

You may well ask. ('Phone canvassing - largely a waste of time, in my opinion; but I do what I can.)
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TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

PorFavor wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:
PorFavor wrote: Great beat combo the Clegg Up 3. It's rumoured that the lead singer might be leaving in May, though.


Edited to add an "r"
That is a poll that says outlier. Who answers a phone these days?

You may well ask. ('Phone canvassing - largely a waste of time, in my opinion; but I do what I can.)
One for AK do these polling companies call mobiles?

I would suggest that a big change since 2010 is that junk phone calls now mean if many people don't recognise CLI they just throw the call away. Which makes you wonder about the self selecting sample that actually answer them.
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AngryAsWell
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Re: Thursday 9th April 2015

Post by AngryAsWell »

Paul Waugh ‏@paulwaugh · 2m2 minutes ago
Big story coming up.
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