FlyTheNest

NicholasB
10m ago
1 2

Populus also have a 2% Labour Lead (31:33:8:16:6). The underlying position (Clipped Weighted Moving Average) seems to be a 1% Labour Lead but the short term trend since April 1 for the Labour Lead to increase is looking statistically very convincing (R^2=0.82 on 16 observations).

I would expect this to reverse as people get back from holiday next week and serious consideration of economic reality sets in. Previous Labour Bounces have all done this. But right now Labour seems to be on a real bounce, and with the election so close it will need a big correction in the next 3 weeks or so. We shall see... Guardian Election Blog - my emphasis)

JP Janson De Couet ‏@ostercywriter 7 mins7 minutes ago

Eric Pickles is having his second car crash of the day and pretends "he can't hear what people are saying".

Analysts have warned that the pound could fall further as financial markets react to the closest general election for more than 20 years and weaker than expected economic data.

Sterling fell to a five-year low of $1.4623 on Friday morning from $1.4802 on Thursday.

The drop followed signs of jitters in markets on Thursday as investors bought insurance against sharp swings in the value of the pound. The pound rose slightly against the euro this morning to €1.3820.

Currency traders were also unsettled by lower than expected industrial production in February that augured a growth slowdown in the UK economy. Industrial production rose just 0.1% in February due to a big fall in North Sea oil production. Economists had expected an increase of 0.3%.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... ncertainty" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

citizenJA wrote:

A major spike in air pollution across much of England poses a risk to those suffering from respiratory diseases, older people and children, health charities warned on Friday.

The government pushed its smog alert levels to “very high” - its most extreme pollution warning - for some parts of south east England.

In Brighton, Eastbourne and Hastings the official advice is for all residents - regardless of their health - to reduce their physical exertion. Older people and children on Easter school holidays have been urged to avoid any strenuous activity at all.

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ ... -charities" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

My usual air quality checker isn't currently showing air quality for the UK available (website below)
The air is currently crap here in Stoke
My partner is asthmatic

http://aqicn.org/city/united-kingdom/ma ... iccadilly/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

On the ‘negative Conservative tactics’ of the current phase of the campaign, there appears to be a flawed internal justification for the present approach which is itself based on equally flawed use of qualitative data and partial reading of polling.

A number of commentators, both ‘impartial’ and firmly within the Conservative ‘tent’ have commented that alongside the – to date -highly negative polls on Miliband, great store is set by the campaign team on information gleaned from focus groups.

In fact I’ve heard / read a dozen or more reports of an anecdote that tells of members of focus groups ‘mentioning unprompted’ ‘Miliband’s treachery towards his brother’ and that this event is somehow evidence for the effectiveness of ‘backstabber’ type comments. In fact one journalist even ascribed the phrase to a focus group participant.

If really true, this is a total misunderstanding of focus groups, their uses and limitations.

Nothing is said ‘unprompted’ in a focus group.

Left to their own devices the people in a room will talk about the tea, coffee and sandwiches, their jobs, their families, themselves. The weather.

They were being prompted to talk about Ed Miliband. They were being asked to FOCUS on politics, something that most people do rarely.

Quite possibly, perhaps probably the human drama of Ed and David Miliband is the most memorable thing about the Labour leader for those who do not follow the political scene – consider all the ‘most remembered stories of the week polls’, human interest narratives: plane, train and car crashes, Jeremy Clarkson. A political story – like HSBC – must be everywhere for several days before it gains traction.

It may even be that people express a distaste for Miliband’s behaviour in the Labour leadership contest. However, that alone is not a basis to launch an attack. A politician launching a personal attack should ask themselves… How confident will people feel about joining the criticism? Can they perceive of themselves in similar circumstances to the person they are being invited to criticise? How serious do they consider the ‘offence’?

These can all be tested in focus groups.

Much psychological research – and political commentary, Lord Ashcroft is very adroit on this point, and has polling to support it – indicates that people are naturally disinclined to personal attacks on others, they need to be mightily persuaded that their own position is ‘moral’ or ‘good’, that the person being attacked is ‘immoral’ or ‘bad’ before the attack is considered ‘deserved’ and the person making the attack given credit rather than perceived as ‘unpleasant’.

It seems fairly straightforward that whilst people do recall Miliband vs Miliband and have their views on the matter (many negative) they do not equate any transgression they perceive as being equivalent with violent crime or murder (the metaphor deployed by Fallon) so are reluctant to join in with the florid opprobrium being poured on EM, in fact are likely to view the critic as the person stepping out of line with acceptable norms.

What’s more worrying in terms of the competence of the Conservative campaign is that the polls could have told them that an attack of this kind was likely to have limited effect, for Ed Miliband has consistently scored reasonably (not well) on softer, empathetic personal characteristics such us ‘understanding people like me’, ‘fairness’, ‘meaning well’ (if not being able to achieve it). These qualities are not consistent with ‘backstabber’.

This partial reading of polling evidence – something I pointed out previously in reaction to the budget – seems to be a general problem with Conservative strategy. Whilst playing your strengths – the nation’s economy, economic competence, leadership – and targeting your opponent’s weaknesses are necessary prerequisites to victory, neutralising or at least recognising your foe’s strengths is just as crucial.

Criticism is often made of Labour for not tackling the Conservatives on the economy, but it could be argued that ‘those with the broadest shoulders bear the heaviest burden’ and ‘cost of living crisis’ are messages that at least attempt to cover this ground. The Conservatives – who seem to have dismissed Labour out of hand for so long – appear to have few or no messages to counter Labour’s areas of strength, which the polls consistently say are wider than the NHS and include education, fairness, ‘looking out for people like me’.

No doubt a realisation of the need for ‘softer’ ‘positive’ messages is what is causing the on-going re-writes of the Conservative manifesto, but the question is why has it taken so long when the polls have been saying quite clearly since 2013 that there were real policy areas of strength for Labour that needed to be tackled head on.

If you are going to go to all the bother of spending huge amounts of money and time on research, it would be seem sensible to act on all the results, not only those that fit your pre-determined campaign and communication strategy.

That said, there is still time, let’s not forget that in 1992 the Conservatives pretty much junked their whole election campaign blueprint a third of the way in and John Major got out his soap box…. will Cameron take to his trusty stead to tour the Shires?

April 10th, 2015 at 12:34 pm

PorFavor wrote:I know you're all anxious to get word on the latest so, as I happened upon it as the Guardian website ricocheted about:

NicholasB
10m ago
1 2

Populus also have a 2% Labour Lead (31:33:8:16:6). The underlying position (Clipped Weighted Moving Average) seems to be a 1% Labour Lead but the short term trend since April 1 for the Labour Lead to increase is looking statistically very convincing (R^2=0.82 on 16 observations).

I would expect this to reverse as people get back from holiday next week and serious consideration of economic reality sets in. Previous Labour Bounces have all done this. But right now Labour seems to be on a real bounce, and with the election so close it will need a big correction in the next 3 weeks or so. We shall see... Guardian Election Blog - my emphasis)

That said, there is still time, let’s not forget that in 1992 the Conservatives pretty much junked their whole election campaign blueprint a third of the way in and John Major got out his soap box…. will Cameron take to his trusty stead[sic] to tour the Shires?

yahyah wrote:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB ·
PaddyPower: http://bit.ly/I8PkIO" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Poll boost for LAB sees odds of Edm being returned PM fall from 5/4 to Evens over 24 hours

So money's going on Ed ?

SpinningHugo wrote:

yahyah wrote:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB ·
PaddyPower: http://bit.ly/I8PkIO" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; Poll boost for LAB sees odds of Edm being returned PM fall from 5/4 to Evens over 24 hours

So money's going on Ed ?

Mine is. I just got Ed M to be PM after the election at 5/4.

PorFavor wrote:@ pk1

This -

That said, there is still time, let’s not forget that in 1992 the Conservatives pretty much junked their whole election campaign blueprint a third of the way in and John Major got out his soap box…. will Cameron take to his trusty stead[sic] to tour the Shires?

I'm not sure that there is still time, though. This is surely a much shorter election campaign and I don't think the Conservatives have the luxury of being able to rip it up and start again - at least not to any great effect.

PorFavor wrote:@ pk1

This -

That said, there is still time, let’s not forget that in 1992 the Conservatives pretty much junked their whole election campaign blueprint a third of the way in and John Major got out his soap box…. will Cameron take to his trusty stead[sic] to tour the Shires?

I'm not sure that there is still time, though. This is surely a much shorter election campaign and I don't think the Conservatives have the luxury of being able to rip it up and start again - at least not to any great effect.

ohsocynical wrote:@CitizenJA

Here you go.

Health alert issued as 'very high' pollution clouds engulf parts of UK

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/health-alert-i ... uk-1495708

Air Pollution: Real-time Air Quality Index (AQI)
Manchester Piccadilly AQI: Manchester Piccadilly Real-time Air Quality Index (AQI).

-

no data
Updated on Tuesday 8:00
Temp: -°C

http://aqicn.org/city/united-kingdom/ma ... iccadilly/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Will Cameron be using Raisa as his trusty stead?

AnatolyKasparov wrote:I know we have a few Portsmouth people here, so......

There are scurrilous rumours going round that LibDems are having to be bussed in from way outside Portsmouth South because most of the local activists there are still backing Han(dy)cock and sitting on their hands. It sounds almost too good to be true - any actual substance to it?

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:Surprisingly balanced profile piece on Ed, written by Simon Hattenstone, up at the Graun. CCHQ interns arriving there in 5, 4, 3 ......

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... e-minister" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

On the World at One just now Patrick McLoughlin, the Conservative transport secretary, was unable to explain how the government would fund the volunteering pledge in the public sector. Eric Pickles, the communities secretary, had a similar problem on the Today programme. Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, said the plan could cost the public sector up to £1bn.

RobertSnozers wrote:

PorFavor wrote:@ pk1

This -

That said, there is still time, let’s not forget that in 1992 the Conservatives pretty much junked their whole election campaign blueprint a third of the way in and John Major got out his soap box…. will Cameron take to his trusty stead[sic] to tour the Shires?

I'm not sure that there is still time, though. This is surely a much shorter election campaign and I don't think the Conservatives have the luxury of being able to rip it up and start again - at least not to any great effect.

Actually 1992 campaign was shorter - called on 11 March, election on 9 April.

I don't think it will be possible for the Tories to turn it round in this way. In 1992, Major's appeal was a big part of the Tory success, and he had the ability to 'get on his soapbox' and engage with people. This election campaign has been so scripted and stage-managed that it offers little possibility to relax things - on WatO yesterday, a journalist who had been in the Tory battle bus described how Cameron had had no contact at all with any unvetted members of the public, and every aspect of the campaign was closely controlled. Moreover, I don't think Cameron has the ability to connect that Major had at the time - remember, even in 1997 when everything about Major's government was utterly shambolic, Major was still more popular than the Tory party. Cameron polls above his party, but not by a very great deal, IMO, and I can't imagine it's because of his common touch. Moreover, after 2010, I can imagine that none of the parties (apparently even Ukip is micromanaging everything) want a repeat of the Gillian Duffy incident. Nobody wants to be the one to lose the war in an afternoon.

yahyah wrote:Sorry, I've skewed the page, maybe a kind admin peep could re-size it please.

Just think we need to keep cheerful during this stressful time.

We are now raising more money online from thousands of supporters like you than the Tories are getting from their hedge-fund millionaire friends.

citizenJA wrote:I've got to go out for awhile
Wish me luck
I'll return soon
love
cJA

Nigel Farage backs Ukip candidate in sausage roll bribery row
Southampton Itchen candidate told to report to police accused of ‘treating’ after savouries were provided at event attended by snooker star Jimmy White

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... immy-white

ohsocynical wrote:

Nigel Farage backs Ukip candidate in sausage roll bribery row
Southampton Itchen candidate told to report to police accused of ‘treating’ after savouries were provided at event attended by snooker star Jimmy White

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... immy-white

I can just imagine those living in foreign climes scratching their heads and wondering what a sausage roll is and how valuable.

Only in England.

yahyah wrote:Sorry, I've skewed the page, maybe a kind admin peep could re-size it please.

Just think we need to keep cheerful during this stressful time.

RogerOThornhill wrote:

On the World at One just now Patrick McLoughlin, the Conservative transport secretary, was unable to explain how the government would fund the volunteering pledge in the public sector. Eric Pickles, the communities secretary, had a similar problem on the Today programme. Yvette Cooper, the shadow home secretary, said the plan could cost the public sector up to £1bn.

You can tell that this has just been plucked from the air (or from down the side of the sofa as someone suggested).

Whereas in my job I could just leave the work there and pick it up when I got back if I had a day in school, you simply can't expect the same for the essential services. If my other half is off, someone has to cover the shift. Teacher not teaching require cover.

Utterly clueless.

AnatolyKasparov wrote:One thing to remember now is that during the actual "short campaign" there are stricter rules on election spending.

This means Tory/LibDem incumbents who deluged their electors with stuff in the last few months are on a more level playing field now. And that means having an advantage in troops on the ground counts for more - generally good news for Labour (except in Scotland, of course!)

This may surprise you, but the Tories are delighted with how the campaign is going
Politics is a simple game in which people run around the country for five weeks. Then the Tories win

danesclose wrote:The Hampstead Village idiot has come close to outdoing himself:

This may surprise you, but the Tories are delighted with how the campaign is going
Politics is a simple game in which people run around the country for five weeks. Then the Tories win

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general ... going.html

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:

danesclose wrote:The Hampstead Village idiot has come close to outdoing himself:

This may surprise you, but the Tories are delighted with how the campaign is going
Politics is a simple game in which people run around the country for five weeks. Then the Tories win

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general ... going.html

Possibly his funniest article yet. Maybe he can get a gig with the Beano?

StephenDolan wrote:

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:

danesclose wrote:The Hampstead Village idiot has come close to outdoing himself:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general ... going.html

Possibly his funniest article yet. Maybe he can get a gig with the Beano?

Has he announced who he is voting for yet?

"it's with heavy heart, but.... "

danesclose wrote:The Hampstead Village idiot has come close to outdoing himself:

This may surprise you, but the Tories are delighted with how the campaign is going
Politics is a simple game in which people run around the country for five weeks. Then the Tories win

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general ... going.html