Monday 13th April

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 7:05 pm

ohsocynical wrote:

Something doesn't smell right to me.

That'll be the fish.

ErnstRemarx · Post by **ErnstRemarx** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 7:06 pm

ohsocynical wrote:Adam Boulton retweeted
General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015 15 mins15 minutes ago
#GE2015 Forecast by Election Trend Blog

LABOUR 279
CONSERVATIVES 270
SNP 59 (Yes! every seat)
LIBDEMS 18
OTHERS 24

http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.c ... uk_13.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …

Hmm. Every seat to SNP?
Yesterday there was an old poll from March doing the rounds on Twitter as if it was the latest one.
Today polls are heavily into Tory leads. Something doesn't smell right to me.

Rather like the ICM poll? Anatoly uses the correct word - outlier; Ernst uses the phrase with which he expresses his actual feelings - complete bollocks (for both polls).

Post by **refitman** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 7:08 pm

RobertSnozers wrote:
PorFavor wrote:This is for TheGrimSqueaker - (from the Guardian Election Blog)

NicholasB
7m ago
0 1

Ashcroft poll has C:Lab equal 33:33:9:13:6. This is pretty well in line with the Weighted Moving Average.

The April 1 bounce for Labour is well and truly over - in fact there is ALMOST a short term trend in favour of the conservatives (R^2=0.78 but only 10 observations and I don't like to call a trend unless we have at least 12).
Is the famous 'clipped weighted moving average' something that Nicky calculates himself? I know the idea comes from Nate Silver, but I get the impression that NB does his own statistical tinkering, the uncharitable would say to obtain the result he wants. Does he have any statistical or psephological expertise with which to do this?

On a more serious note, it's been mentioned before but there seems to be a noticeable difference between phone polls and online polls. The former generally seem to be better for the Tories, the latter better for Labour. Moreover, we seem to get the phone and online polls in 'clusters' - is it this that's producing apparent swings back and forth I wonder?

(A) Yes he does his own working out
(B) No, he has demonstrated no expertise. He has demonstrated that he's a pillock though.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 7:09 pm

http://schoolsimprovement.net/half-of-s ... e-subjects" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Another Gove achievement.

The report refers to a survey undertaken by the Association of School and College Leaders in which more than half of heads indicated their schools had vacancies in maths, half that they had vacancies in science and almost half that there were shortages in English.

The ASCL is suggesting the problem is about to become more acute because of a combination of fewer graduates training to be teachers, an increase in the number of secondary age children and an improved job market for the best graduates.

The survey – completed in February – had responses from just under a hundred schools found that 86 per cent had experienced recruitment difficulties in core subjects.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 7:09 pm

ErnstRemarx wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:Adam Boulton retweeted
General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015 15 mins15 minutes ago
#GE2015 Forecast by Election Trend Blog

LABOUR 279
CONSERVATIVES 270
SNP 59 (Yes! every seat)
LIBDEMS 18
OTHERS 24

http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.c ... uk_13.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …

Hmm. Every seat to SNP?
Yesterday there was an old poll from March doing the rounds on Twitter as if it was the latest one.
Today polls are heavily into Tory leads. Something doesn't smell right to me.
Rather like the ICM poll? Anatoly uses the correct word - outlier; Ernst uses the phrase with which he expresses his actual feelings - complete bollocks (for both polls).

I think you have to regard all polls in Scotland with some suspicion. As for the ICM poll even ICM don't believe it.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 7:15 pm

George Eaton retweeted
May2015 Election @May2015NS · 4h 4 hours ago
Can explain ICM poll in 2 points:

a) Low Ukip % in phone polls (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... nt-results" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …)
b) Sampling error (industry hazard)—too many Tories

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 7:17 pm

onebuttonmonkey wrote:Morning all. I posted this over at the other place, but, by rights it belongs here where we're less in awe of Lynton The Narrative Crosby et al. Given the furious "Labour broke the money" nonsense both ATL and BTL, I thought I might dust it off (it was originally ranted out a couple years ago) and update it:

George and the Magic Money Car

Once upon a time, there was a man called Gordon who had a big car made of numbers.

Gordon didn’t really look after the car as well as he should, and the laws about looking after cars – which Gordon was partly in charge of – weren’t strict enough. Another man called George wanted very much to drive Gordon's car, and, for a while, when everything looked good, he used to shout about how we didn’t need any regulations for running cars. In fact, telling people they had to look after the car was holding back car-ownership, said George. Everyone will be better off if we don’t look after cars or driving at all, said George. George wasn't very good at counting, but he was good at sneering, which more than made up for it (thought George).

Then, around seven years ago, the car crashed. Gordon was driving at the time, but there were a whole lot of other cars involved that had nothing to do with Gordon at all. Funnily enough, even though George was nowhere near the car or the wheel when it crashed, the crash caused him a terrible bout of amnesia, and he promptly forgot everything he used to say about how we didn’t need any regulations about maintaining cars. All of a sudden, said George, we need car regulations again (as long as they were nothing like the kind of rules that applied to French or German cars, and as long as the drivers with the biggest wallets could still drive as recklessly as they wanted).

George blamed Gordon for the crash, but while the car was quite knackered, it was by no means beyond repair. Gordon tried to patch it up with a mechanic called Alasdair, and the car started running again, although not as fast as it had done before. But even despite that, George started telling everyone that the car was so broken that it might never run again, even though it wasn’t true. And George said that Gordon had crashed the car on purpose, even though it wasn’t true. And George said that only Gordon was responsible for the crash, even though it wasn’t true.

And as a result, a lot of people who could still easily afford chauffeurs wrote nice stories about how lovely George was in their newspapers. They seemed to have caught amnesia from George, too.

Then, at last, in 2010, George finally got to drive the car.

First, George proceeded to deliberately drive the car into a wall for three years, claiming that his inability to choose another route was everyone else’s fault but his own (even though it was a choice he made every day). Sometimes he said Gordon built the wall, and, at other times, he said that hitting the wall would make us drive faster in the end. And then, when he still didn’t get anywhere, he said that standing still was the right direction, and he tried selling the bonnet, and the wheels, and the engine to some of his friends for far less than they were worth.

When the car still didn’t get anywhere, he stuck a picture of The Confidence Fairy on the dashboard, forced a bunch of unemployed people to push what was left of the car into the same wall he’d been crashing into for the last five years, for which he gave them no money, and claimed this meant they were now employed. But this was OK, because while they were doing it they wore T-shirts that said “Long Term Economic Plan” on them, which is much better than being able to afford to feed themselves or rent a house.

There’s a map that George himself drew, which showed us lots of destinations he promised we’d visit if George got to drive. So far, we’ve failed to be able to reach any of them. But because George’s five year standing-still car journey looks like it might be at an end, he’s now telling us a fairy story about how far we’ve come, as if words were the same as numbers.

Fairy stories always end with a moral, and so does this one: while it’s perfectly reasonable to talk about a car's service history, and point out that things haven’t always been perfect, blaming George’s choices over the last five years on the previous owner is almost as dishonest as George himself. There's no Big Bad Wolf called Gordon breaking everything forever - that man only lives in the newspapers. There's just a horrible, lumpen, dangly-armed smear of an incompetent little man called George who's no better at driving or counting than he is at telling the truth.

Bravo, @OBM

Evenin' all. Just started reading from where I left off, earlier...

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 7:23 pm

ErnstRemarx wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:Just to add that out of all those standing for a council seat, we haven't seen a single one from any party...
What is your own ward? They should have sent you something.

I'm in Hanworth. We have not had a sniff from anyone from any party standing for the council. We've had one Labour and one Conservative GE leaflet. The ones standing as Hanworth community party are disaffected excluded Tories.

I understand why our PPC hasn't called. The Labour membership here is very, very small. They just haven't enough door steppers to go around. But those standing for the council don't have that excuse.

GetYou · Post by **GetYou** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 7:25 pm

danesclose wrote:In case anyone didn't see Jo Coburn eviscerate Sajid Javid on the Daily Politics earlier:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

He got absolutely busted. I like Jo Coburn, like a dog with a bone there. Revealed their argument for the cobblers that it is.

"Look at our track record"

"You failed to keep your promises"

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 7:27 pm

Frances Hinde ‏@FrancesHinde 1 hr1 hour ago Bedford, England

Tables for Guardian ICM poll in the NORTH!!!
ICM Con 30% Lab's 22%
Populus Con 21% Lab 35%
Surv Con 24% Lab 48%

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 7:30 pm

Good-evening, friends, I was away from news for several hours today.
I appreciate being able to read what's important here first.
xx
cJA

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 7:30 pm

GetYou wrote:
danesclose wrote:In case anyone didn't see Jo Coburn eviscerate Sajid Javid on the Daily Politics earlier:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
He got absolutely busted. I like Jo Coburn, like a dog with a bone there. Revealed their argument for the cobblers that it is.

"Look at our track record"

"You failed to keep your promises"

The best bit was Andrew Neil demanding to know where the magic money tree was that they had found.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 7:32 pm

ohsocynical wrote:Frances Hinde ‏@FrancesHinde 1 hr1 hour ago Bedford, England

Tables for Guardian ICM poll in the NORTH!!!
ICM Con 30% Lab's 22%
Populus Con 21% Lab 35%
Surv Con 24% Lab 48%

Tweet her back & tell her to stop distributing crap like that ! Even ICM don't believe their poll is accurate as I posted before but here it is again:

Discussing the result, Martin Boon, of ICM Unlimited, said: “There is inevitably random variation between different polls, which generally falls within a ‘margin of error’ of plus or minus three points. The movement we’ve recorded since the March survey is within that normal bound, albeit only just.”

Boon said the sample chosen looks “demographically sound”, but acknowledges there are signs in the raw data that this sample “could be a just touch too Tory”. In particular, there are more 2010 Conservative voters than ICM would ordinarily expect, and also more voters from the professional occupational grade.

(my bold)

GetYou · Post by **GetYou** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 7:33 pm

I was impressed with the time the program allowed Jo to continue to press. Most interviews with politicians these days are so time limited that they can bluster their way through to the end without answering the questions.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 7:34 pm

pk1 wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:Frances Hinde ‏@FrancesHinde 1 hr1 hour ago Bedford, England

Tables for Guardian ICM poll in the NORTH!!!
ICM Con 30% Lab's 22%
Populus Con 21% Lab 35%
Surv Con 24% Lab 48%
Tweet her back & tell her to stop distributing crap like that ! Even ICM don't believe their poll is accurate as I posted before but here it is again:

Discussing the result, Martin Boon, of ICM Unlimited, said: “There is inevitably random variation between different polls, which generally falls within a ‘margin of error’ of plus or minus three points. The movement we’ve recorded since the March survey is within that normal bound, albeit only just.”

Boon said the sample chosen looks “demographically sound”, but acknowledges there are signs in the raw data that this sample “could be a just touch too Tory”. In particular, there are more 2010 Conservative voters than ICM would ordinarily expect, and also more voters from the professional occupational grade.
(my bold)

I assume the point she was making was that the poll was clearly bollocks.

So tweet her back and state - such an obvious outlier why did ICM publish it?

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 7:43 pm

utopiandreams wrote:Has anyone seen or heard any of the Victoria Derbyshire programme, which I have on in the background? She doesn't appear to think much of Matthew Hancock's arguments, the latest being her less than impressed agreement that this government have indeed upped the daily allowance component for the most disabled by 65p. per week.

I thought it a very good debate and she hosted it well, striking a good balance between being strict, amusing, and encouraging/supportive. I'd seen occasional 'adverts' for it on the BBC News Channel but not the times/dates so caught it by accident. It's on daily, simulcast on BBC TWO and BBC News and (I think Radio5Live,) from 9.15 to 11am. The programme's own episode guide is not clear about what's on on each day but I think she said there were three Election debates, so I'm guessing that those will be on Mondays. Here's today's one on the Economy:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b05rhy05

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 8:15 pm

Disaster as flailing Miliband comes third with Blairite dinosaur.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 8:19 pm

@tinyclanger2

Did you get your Labour party 'Hell, Yes!' t-shirt yet?

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 8:28 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote:

Disaster as flailing Miliband comes third with Blairite dinosaur.

It confirms what we always knew

RenTool is a Cameron fan-boy.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 8:30 pm

Goodnight, everyone.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 8:31 pm

PorFavor wrote:Goodnight, everyone.

Night PF

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 8:37 pm

Surprise slump in China trade figures fans fears global growth is slowing
Weakest exports for a year and poor imports affect markets worldwide before Chinese shares rally on expectation Beijing will step in to stimulate economy

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... owth-fears" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

How's the global leadership working for the benefit of the peoples project coming along? Anyone have any contact with a global leader in your community yet? We need to be able to survive in our localities using less fossil fuel generated energy. Fossil fuels are useful now to build things local communities need (turbines, solar panels) for the local population to use for a long time.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 8:38 pm

PorFavor wrote:Goodnight, everyone.

Goodnight, PorFavor. Please excuse my lousy grammar. I'm tired now.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 8:52 pm

Not all business's dislike Ed then....

Gopichand Hinduja says 'sensible' Ed Miliband not a worry as prime minister
Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

LONDON: Gopichand Hinduja, one of Britain's richest men, said he isn't worried about the prospect of Labour Party leader Ed Miliband becoming prime minister because he's "sensible" and wouldn't hurt London's international status.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 8:57 pm

Ashcroft is releasing another load of marginal polls tomorrow at 8am ! Yes, you read that right - at 8am !!

Either the results are great for Cons or he is sending a short sharp message to them prior to their manifesto launch.

Here we go again *quake*

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 8:58 pm

http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-04- ... ependence/?
Sturgeon: A vote for SNP is not a vote for independence

Another trigger for the Incredible Clanger.
Not a vote for independence, no, but she'll use it to try to get it anyway.

diGriz · Post by **diGriz** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 8:58 pm

General Election 2015: 10-year-old girl asks David Cameron the best question of the campaign but he still fails to give an answer
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 74015.html

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 9:07 pm

citizenJA wrote:@tinyclanger2

Did you get your Labour party 'Hell, Yes!' t-shirt yet?

Not arrived yet. Am on tenterhooks.

DonutHingeParty · Post by **DonutHingeParty** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 9:08 pm

Sorry, Labour, but putting in a doctor who lives in Scotland for North Somerset, although the symmetry with Liam Fox might be poetic, doesn't endear me to you on this occasion. I'll be hoping Ed wins nationally, but as Fox's majority is over 5k I may as well go for Green on this occasion.

diGriz · Post by **diGriz** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 9:08 pm

Some interesting stats.

Labour wants you to trust them with the economy again: 7 charts that show how they coped last time they were in power
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 73328.html

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 9:16 pm

DonutHingeParty wrote:Sorry, Labour, but putting in a doctor who lives in Scotland for North Somerset, although the symmetry with Liam Fox might be poetic, doesn't endear me to you on this occasion. I'll be hoping Ed wins nationally, but as Fox's majority is over 5k I may as well go for Green on this occasion.

Isn't that a Tory/Dem marginal.

In which case, gulp, Lib Dem.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 9:17 pm

DonutHingeParty wrote:Sorry, Labour, but putting in a doctor who lives in Scotland for North Somerset, although the symmetry with Liam Fox might be poetic, doesn't endear me to you on this occasion. I'll be hoping Ed wins nationally, but as Fox's majority is over 5k I may as well go for Green on this occasion.

Ah, hang on, Greg sounds a good guy...

GREG CHAMBERS (Labour)

Greg says:

“I am delighted to be selected to fight the North Somerset seat for Labour at the General Election.
I’m Greg Chambers. I’m 37 and originally from Somerton, Somerset and so I’m used to the West Country. I am a doctor in Aberdeen at the moment, taking a break starting in October. I’m moving south to spend time with my girlfriend Ravinder and my 6 month old baby Gabriela.

Greg and Family

I’m planning on being a GP in the long-term. I did Maths and Philosophy at Leeds Uni originally, and spent a year in Rome and a year in Milan as well, which was great.

I worked in IT in London for about 5 years before returning to Uni in the West Country.
I studied medicine in Plymouth, Exeter, Truro and Barnstaple, which gave me a great insight into the key issues affecting people in rural areas.
I’m really looking forward to engaging people in North Somerset and seeing how we can set about changing the key issues of transport, housing, education and health for the better.”

http://94.136.40.103/~northsomersetlabo ... page_id=39" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 9:18 pm

frightful_oik wrote:
danesclose wrote:In case anyone didn't see Jo Coburn eviscerate Sajid Javid on the Daily Politics earlier:

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Long term economic plan erm tough decisions erm hard-working families erm track record. Broken record more like. Some people actually think that pillock could be PM one day.

(My bold)

Well, he's very good at being sneery and shouty and going red in the face! Surely that's all that's required of a modern Tory Leader

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 9:23 pm

DonutHingeParty wrote:Sorry, Labour, but putting in a doctor who lives in Scotland for North Somerset, although the symmetry with Liam Fox might be poetic, doesn't endear me to you on this occasion. I'll be hoping Ed wins nationally, but as Fox's majority is over 5k I may as well go for Green on this occasion.

About as thoroughly damned Tory seat as it's possible to be...~~Vaya con dios, Dr. Greg~~...wait...according to
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/somersetnorth/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
that 'safe Tory seat' is losing percentage point leads as the years go on...going down...
Vaya con dios, Liam Fox, goodbye...

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 9:23 pm

Just put this in Features & Analysis for future reference :

Nick Clegg/ LibDem Achievements
With thanks to
Witchend - Guardian CiF/ AS Blog 13/4/15

NHS - Health and Social Care Act 2012
Thanks to Liberal Democrat votes they must share responsibility for wasting £3billion on a top-down NHS reorganisation while more people wait longer in A&Es and over 5,000 nurses are cut.
Tuition Fees: Trebling Tuition Fees to £9000 (despite promising to abolish them.
Educational Maintenance Allowance (EMA)
Lib Dems helped Tories abolish it
Snoopers charter
Bedroom Tax
(Spare Room Subsidy) Voted with the Tories to charge poor people between £14 and £24.00 PER WEEK inflicting distress and suffering on millions, now over 50,000 people are in rent arrears and face eviction and the figures will continue to increase.
Privatisation of Probation Service
VAT BOMBSHELL
In opposition Clegg & LibDems spoke of "TORY VAT BOMBSHELL" then voted with Tories to increase VAT to 20%
Part Privatisation of prison service
Bombing Syria
Voted /supported With Tories to bomb Syria
Sure Start Centres
Supported Tories to close over 558 Sure Start Centres (so far) despite promising not to,
Cut Income Tax for Millionaires
Backed a Tory cut in the top rate of tax, giving 13,000 millionaires a tax cut worth an average £100,000 while millions are paying more.
Falling Living Standards
Clegg says he's making life "fairer and easier" with tax cuts, however, wages are down £1,500 since the election and a million young people out of work.
Mansion Tax
Nick Clegg said "The Mansion Tax is right, it makes sense and the Liberal Democrats will continue to make the case for it. they said they would "stick to their guns" however when given the chance to stand up for their own principles and vote for a mansion tax, Liberal Democrat MPs voted against it.
Constitutional Reform
Nick Clegg said his constitutional reform programme would be "the biggest shake-up of our democracy since the Great Reform Act of 1832". It wasn't. He abandoned Lords reform after Conservative MPs refused to back it, and he failed to deliver reform of the voting system.
Police
In the Liberal Democrat manifesto, Nick Clegg promised to put 3,000 more police on the beat. But in Government they backed Tory plans to cut more than 15,000 police officers.
Special Advisers
In opposition, the Liberal Democrats said that special advisers "are political jobs, and should, therefore, be funded by political parties". They changed their tune when they got into Government. Nick Clegg alone has sixteen Special Advisers - paid for at the taxpayers' expense.
Foodbanks
Soaring use of foodbanks
Utilities
Soaring cost of gas, electricity and water.
Child Poverty
There are now 2.6million kids in the UK being brought up in hardship, with more than half of them in working households. The number of children living in poverty has leapt by 300,000 under the Coalition Government.
Environment
Meant to be "greenest" government ever, but helping Tories introduce Fracking
Lobbying Bill
Not one single Liberal Democrat MP opposed the party of the government’s draconian Lobbying Bill that muzzles charities and campaigners.
Secret Courts
In an Act of Parliament Liberal Democrat MPs voted in favour of Secret Courts and helped put on the statute books just five months ago! Now they have the cheek to say they will repeal it? Then why vote it through? Is this what Clegg calls blocking the excesses of the Tories? Voting something through then saying they will repeal it?
Legal Aid
Liberal Democrats voted with the Tories to stop ordinary people gaining access to legal aid;
Judicial Review
The curtailing of judicial review.
Workers Rights
Removing workers rights to a tribunal and charging them at least £1000 to bring a case
Royal Mail given away to Dave’s fat cat hedge fund mates stealing millions from the British taxpayer

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 9:32 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
DonutHingeParty wrote:Sorry, Labour, but putting in a doctor who lives in Scotland for North Somerset, although the symmetry with Liam Fox might be poetic, doesn't endear me to you on this occasion. I'll be hoping Ed wins nationally, but as Fox's majority is over 5k I may as well go for Green on this occasion.
Isn't that a Tory/Dem marginal.

In which case, gulp, Lib Dem.

Yep.
Marcus Kravis, LibDem PPC for North Somerset - local LibDem councillor & businessman

In 2010, LibDems got closer to Liam Fox's seat than did Labour.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 9:38 pm

Bonnie Greer ‏@Bonn1eGreer · 52 secs53 seconds ago
ENGLAND ONLY shares in @LordAshcroft poll
#Tories 34
#Labour 36
LD 9
#UKIP 14
6.7% CON to LAB swing since #GE2010-
@MSmithsonPB
#GE2015

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 9:38 pm

diGriz wrote:Some interesting stats.

Labour wants you to trust them with the economy again: 7 charts that show how they coped last time they were in power
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 73328.html

The first five I'm delighted with. I'd like for those last two achievements to be consigned to history with a warning tag attached to both. DON'T.

diGriz · Post by **diGriz** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 9:43 pm

citizenJA wrote:
diGriz wrote:Some interesting stats.

Labour wants you to trust them with the economy again: 7 charts that show how they coped last time they were in power
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 73328.html
The first five I'm delighted with. I'd like for those last two achievements to be consigned to history with a warning tag attached to both. DON'T.

I think the official line was - we don't care how much money you make as long as you pay your tax.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 9:49 pm

diGriz wrote:
citizenJA wrote:
diGriz wrote:Some interesting stats.

Labour wants you to trust them with the economy again: 7 charts that show how they coped last time they were in power
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 73328.html
The first five I'm delighted with. I'd like for those last two achievements to be consigned to history with a warning tag attached to both. DON'T.
I think the official line was - we don't care how much money you make as long as you pay your tax.

Wage inequality was growing & house prices rose steadily, outstripping wage growth - apologies if I've misunderstood the last two Labour economic achievements.

edited to add - the Tory coalition saw house prices rise even higher without any wage growth for regular people, according to the article.

Excellent article, deGriz, thank you.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 10:20 pm

Michael McCann retweeted
Kevin O'Donnell ‏@kevwodonnell 46m46 minutes ago
Resounding Labour victory in the G East hustings for Margaret Curran. McGarry lost the audience. Margaret passionate about helping locals.

I'd like to believe that is true ... no way of knowing unless there's some footage being uploaded somewhere.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 10:24 pm

The Chancellor, George Osborne, presented the Coalition Government’s first Budget to the House on 22 June 2010. In his Budget speech Mr Osborne announced a number of tax increases, as part of the Government’s approach to fiscal consolidation, of which by far the most significant in terms of the amounts to be raised was an increase in the standard rate of VAT, from 17.5% to 20% from 4 January 2011.

The increase in the standard rate was estimated to raise £12.1bn in 2011/12, rising to £13.5bn by 2014/15.

Introducing this measure, the Chancellor said:
"The years of debt and spending made this unavoidable. This single tax measure will by the end of this Parliament generate over £13 billion a year of extra revenues. That is £13 billion that we do not have to find from extra spending cuts or income tax rises. I can also give this House a commitment that we will keep everyday essentials such as food and children's clothing, as well as other zero-rated items like newspapers and printed books, exempt from VAT over the course of this Parliament."

The previous Labour Government had introduced a one-off cut in the standard rate of VAT to 15%, from 1 December 2008 to 31 December 2009, as part of a fiscal stimulus to counteract the economic recession.

At the time it was widely reported that the Government initially intended that the rate would rise to 18.5% in 2010, but decided against this course of action days before the then Chancellor, Alistair Darling, announced it in his Pre-Budget statement in November 2008.

http://www.parliament.uk/business/publi ... ndard-rate" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

So simple, this act of the Labour government & effective. It kept more money circulating through the people into the economy everyone has to use, rich or poor. And Chancellor Jeff didn't. Read the quote from the guy again -

"The years of debt and spending made this unavoidable. This single tax measure will by the end of this Parliament generate over £13 billion a year of extra revenues.

Where'd that £13 billion a year go, Jeff? What did it pay for? Less. It paid for less than it could have otherwise have done. Is that about right or have I made a mistake? Please let me know.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 10:24 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:
Michael McCann retweeted
Kevin O'Donnell ‏@kevwodonnell 46m46 minutes ago
Resounding Labour victory in the G East hustings for Margaret Curran. McGarry lost the audience. Margaret passionate about helping locals.
I'd like to believe that is true ... no way of knowing unless there's some footage being uploaded somewhere.

Like the others with very big majorities, she should survive if she's been reasonably hard working.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 10:27 pm

Sad news at death of ex Eurovision entrant Ronnie Carroll..also candidate in Hampstead + Kilburn...rules say poll there must becancelled 1/3

Mark Denten @BBCMarkDenten
· 5m 5 minutes ago
@ElectoralCommUK rules
"If Returning Officer notified of a candidate’s death during election campaign -poll will be cancelled" 3/3

Surely Not? In a General Election? Poss by-election but not Gen ??

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 10:29 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:
Michael McCann retweeted
Kevin O'Donnell ‏@kevwodonnell 46m46 minutes ago
Resounding Labour victory in the G East hustings for Margaret Curran. McGarry lost the audience. Margaret passionate about helping locals.
I'd like to believe that is true ... no way of knowing unless there's some footage being uploaded somewhere.
Like the others with very big majorities, she should survive if she's been reasonably hard working.

She's wonderful!
Remember the Carer's radio interview? Apologies, I don't have the link at hand.

http://www.margaretcurran.org/margaret- ... asgow-east" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 10:32 pm

Those marginal polls I mentioned earlier:

@LordAshcroft: The marginal seats poll for release 8am tomorrow are Tory held which need a swing to Labour of about 5% to change. Will they be blue or red?

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 10:35 pm

Oh FFS, Allegra Stratton just said the Cons are to announce Right to Buy Housing Association homes !

Where the fucking hell are people who can't get or don't want to own a house, supposed to live ?

What the fucking hell is so wrong with renting ?!

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 10:37 pm

YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour lead by one: CON 33%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 6%

Separate point - where's PaulfromYorkshire lately ? I miss him & the FTN Twitter account hasn't tweeted for days - he was always so good at maintaining the a/c.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 10:40 pm

A bit of light relief, quite an amusing brain teaser, although the model answer could read English.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 73090.html

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Mon 13 Apr, 2015 10:42 pm

pk1 wrote:Oh FFS, Allegra Stratton just said the Cons are to announce Right to Buy Housing Association homes !

Where the fucking hell are people who can't get or don't want to own a house, supposed to live ?

What the fucking hell is so wrong with renting ?!

Bit pointless, how many housing association tenants can afford to buy?