Re: Monday 13th April
Posted: Mon 13 Apr, 2015 7:05 pm
That'll be the fish.ohsocynical wrote:
Something doesn't smell right to me.
That'll be the fish.ohsocynical wrote:
Something doesn't smell right to me.
Rather like the ICM poll? Anatoly uses the correct word - outlier; Ernst uses the phrase with which he expresses his actual feelings - complete bollocks (for both polls).ohsocynical wrote:Adam Boulton retweeted
General Election @UKELECTIONS2015 15 mins15 minutes ago
#GE2015 Forecast by Election Trend Blog
LABOUR 279
CONSERVATIVES 270
SNP 59 (Yes! every seat)
LIBDEMS 18
OTHERS 24
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.c ... uk_13.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …
Hmm. Every seat to SNP?
Yesterday there was an old poll from March doing the rounds on Twitter as if it was the latest one.
Today polls are heavily into Tory leads. Something doesn't smell right to me.
(A) Yes he does his own working outRobertSnozers wrote:Is the famous 'clipped weighted moving average' something that Nicky calculates himself? I know the idea comes from Nate Silver, but I get the impression that NB does his own statistical tinkering, the uncharitable would say to obtain the result he wants. Does he have any statistical or psephological expertise with which to do this?PorFavor wrote:This is for TheGrimSqueaker - (from the Guardian Election Blog)
NicholasB
7m ago
0 1
Ashcroft poll has C:Lab equal 33:33:9:13:6. This is pretty well in line with the Weighted Moving Average.
The April 1 bounce for Labour is well and truly over - in fact there is ALMOST a short term trend in favour of the conservatives (R^2=0.78 but only 10 observations and I don't like to call a trend unless we have at least 12).
On a more serious note, it's been mentioned before but there seems to be a noticeable difference between phone polls and online polls. The former generally seem to be better for the Tories, the latter better for Labour. Moreover, we seem to get the phone and online polls in 'clusters' - is it this that's producing apparent swings back and forth I wonder?
The report refers to a survey undertaken by the Association of School and College Leaders in which more than half of heads indicated their schools had vacancies in maths, half that they had vacancies in science and almost half that there were shortages in English.
The ASCL is suggesting the problem is about to become more acute because of a combination of fewer graduates training to be teachers, an increase in the number of secondary age children and an improved job market for the best graduates.
The survey – completed in February – had responses from just under a hundred schools found that 86 per cent had experienced recruitment difficulties in core subjects.
I think you have to regard all polls in Scotland with some suspicion. As for the ICM poll even ICM don't believe it.ErnstRemarx wrote:Rather like the ICM poll? Anatoly uses the correct word - outlier; Ernst uses the phrase with which he expresses his actual feelings - complete bollocks (for both polls).ohsocynical wrote:Adam Boulton retweeted
General Election @UKELECTIONS2015 15 mins15 minutes ago
#GE2015 Forecast by Election Trend Blog
LABOUR 279
CONSERVATIVES 270
SNP 59 (Yes! every seat)
LIBDEMS 18
OTHERS 24
http://ukgeneralelection2015.blogspot.c ... uk_13.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …
Hmm. Every seat to SNP?
Yesterday there was an old poll from March doing the rounds on Twitter as if it was the latest one.
Today polls are heavily into Tory leads. Something doesn't smell right to me.
George Eaton retweeted
May2015 Election @May2015NS · 4h 4 hours ago
Can explain ICM poll in 2 points:
a) Low Ukip % in phone polls (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... nt-results" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …)
b) Sampling error (industry hazard)—too many Tories
Bravo, @OBMonebuttonmonkey wrote:Morning all. I posted this over at the other place, but, by rights it belongs here where we're less in awe of Lynton The Narrative Crosby et al. Given the furious "Labour broke the money" nonsense both ATL and BTL, I thought I might dust it off (it was originally ranted out a couple years ago) and update it:
George and the Magic Money Car
Once upon a time, there was a man called Gordon who had a big car made of numbers.
Gordon didn’t really look after the car as well as he should, and the laws about looking after cars – which Gordon was partly in charge of – weren’t strict enough. Another man called George wanted very much to drive Gordon's car, and, for a while, when everything looked good, he used to shout about how we didn’t need any regulations for running cars. In fact, telling people they had to look after the car was holding back car-ownership, said George. Everyone will be better off if we don’t look after cars or driving at all, said George. George wasn't very good at counting, but he was good at sneering, which more than made up for it (thought George).
Then, around seven years ago, the car crashed. Gordon was driving at the time, but there were a whole lot of other cars involved that had nothing to do with Gordon at all. Funnily enough, even though George was nowhere near the car or the wheel when it crashed, the crash caused him a terrible bout of amnesia, and he promptly forgot everything he used to say about how we didn’t need any regulations about maintaining cars. All of a sudden, said George, we need car regulations again (as long as they were nothing like the kind of rules that applied to French or German cars, and as long as the drivers with the biggest wallets could still drive as recklessly as they wanted).
George blamed Gordon for the crash, but while the car was quite knackered, it was by no means beyond repair. Gordon tried to patch it up with a mechanic called Alasdair, and the car started running again, although not as fast as it had done before. But even despite that, George started telling everyone that the car was so broken that it might never run again, even though it wasn’t true. And George said that Gordon had crashed the car on purpose, even though it wasn’t true. And George said that only Gordon was responsible for the crash, even though it wasn’t true.
And as a result, a lot of people who could still easily afford chauffeurs wrote nice stories about how lovely George was in their newspapers. They seemed to have caught amnesia from George, too.
Then, at last, in 2010, George finally got to drive the car.
First, George proceeded to deliberately drive the car into a wall for three years, claiming that his inability to choose another route was everyone else’s fault but his own (even though it was a choice he made every day). Sometimes he said Gordon built the wall, and, at other times, he said that hitting the wall would make us drive faster in the end. And then, when he still didn’t get anywhere, he said that standing still was the right direction, and he tried selling the bonnet, and the wheels, and the engine to some of his friends for far less than they were worth.
When the car still didn’t get anywhere, he stuck a picture of The Confidence Fairy on the dashboard, forced a bunch of unemployed people to push what was left of the car into the same wall he’d been crashing into for the last five years, for which he gave them no money, and claimed this meant they were now employed. But this was OK, because while they were doing it they wore T-shirts that said “Long Term Economic Plan” on them, which is much better than being able to afford to feed themselves or rent a house.
There’s a map that George himself drew, which showed us lots of destinations he promised we’d visit if George got to drive. So far, we’ve failed to be able to reach any of them. But because George’s five year standing-still car journey looks like it might be at an end, he’s now telling us a fairy story about how far we’ve come, as if words were the same as numbers.
Fairy stories always end with a moral, and so does this one: while it’s perfectly reasonable to talk about a car's service history, and point out that things haven’t always been perfect, blaming George’s choices over the last five years on the previous owner is almost as dishonest as George himself. There's no Big Bad Wolf called Gordon breaking everything forever - that man only lives in the newspapers. There's just a horrible, lumpen, dangly-armed smear of an incompetent little man called George who's no better at driving or counting than he is at telling the truth.
I'm in Hanworth. We have not had a sniff from anyone from any party standing for the council. We've had one Labour and one Conservative GE leaflet. The ones standing as Hanworth community party are disaffected excluded Tories.ErnstRemarx wrote:What is your own ward? They should have sent you something.ohsocynical wrote:Just to add that out of all those standing for a council seat, we haven't seen a single one from any party...
He got absolutely busted. I like Jo Coburn, like a dog with a bone there. Revealed their argument for the cobblers that it is.danesclose wrote:In case anyone didn't see Jo Coburn eviscerate Sajid Javid on the Daily Politics earlier:
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The best bit was Andrew Neil demanding to know where the magic money tree was that they had found.GetYou wrote:He got absolutely busted. I like Jo Coburn, like a dog with a bone there. Revealed their argument for the cobblers that it is.danesclose wrote:In case anyone didn't see Jo Coburn eviscerate Sajid Javid on the Daily Politics earlier:
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"Look at our track record"
"You failed to keep your promises"
Tweet her back & tell her to stop distributing crap like that ! Even ICM don't believe their poll is accurate as I posted before but here it is again:ohsocynical wrote:Frances Hinde @FrancesHinde 1 hr1 hour ago Bedford, England
Tables for Guardian ICM poll in the NORTH!!!
ICM Con 30% Lab's 22%
Populus Con 21% Lab 35%
Surv Con 24% Lab 48%
(my bold)Discussing the result, Martin Boon, of ICM Unlimited, said: “There is inevitably random variation between different polls, which generally falls within a ‘margin of error’ of plus or minus three points. The movement we’ve recorded since the March survey is within that normal bound, albeit only just.”
Boon said the sample chosen looks “demographically sound”, but acknowledges there are signs in the raw data that this sample “could be a just touch too Tory”. In particular, there are more 2010 Conservative voters than ICM would ordinarily expect, and also more voters from the professional occupational grade.
I assume the point she was making was that the poll was clearly bollocks.pk1 wrote:Tweet her back & tell her to stop distributing crap like that ! Even ICM don't believe their poll is accurate as I posted before but here it is again:ohsocynical wrote:Frances Hinde @FrancesHinde 1 hr1 hour ago Bedford, England
Tables for Guardian ICM poll in the NORTH!!!
ICM Con 30% Lab's 22%
Populus Con 21% Lab 35%
Surv Con 24% Lab 48%
(my bold)Discussing the result, Martin Boon, of ICM Unlimited, said: “There is inevitably random variation between different polls, which generally falls within a ‘margin of error’ of plus or minus three points. The movement we’ve recorded since the March survey is within that normal bound, albeit only just.”
Boon said the sample chosen looks “demographically sound”, but acknowledges there are signs in the raw data that this sample “could be a just touch too Tory”. In particular, there are more 2010 Conservative voters than ICM would ordinarily expect, and also more voters from the professional occupational grade.
I thought it a very good debate and she hosted it well, striking a good balance between being strict, amusing, and encouraging/supportive. I'd seen occasional 'adverts' for it on the BBC News Channel but not the times/dates so caught it by accident. It's on daily, simulcast on BBC TWO and BBC News and (I think Radio5Live,) from 9.15 to 11am. The programme's own episode guide is not clear about what's on on each day but I think she said there were three Election debates, so I'm guessing that those will be on Mondays. Here's today's one on the Economy:utopiandreams wrote:Has anyone seen or heard any of the Victoria Derbyshire programme, which I have on in the background? She doesn't appear to think much of Matthew Hancock's arguments, the latest being her less than impressed agreement that this government have indeed upped the daily allowance component for the most disabled by 65p. per week.
It confirms what we always knewTubby Isaacs wrote:
Disaster as flailing Miliband comes third with Blairite dinosaur.
Night PFPorFavor wrote:Goodnight, everyone.
How's the global leadership working for the benefit of the peoples project coming along? Anyone have any contact with a global leader in your community yet? We need to be able to survive in our localities using less fossil fuel generated energy. Fossil fuels are useful now to build things local communities need (turbines, solar panels) for the local population to use for a long time.Surprise slump in China trade figures fans fears global growth is slowing
Weakest exports for a year and poor imports affect markets worldwide before Chinese shares rally on expectation Beijing will step in to stimulate economy
http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... owth-fears" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Goodnight, PorFavor. Please excuse my lousy grammar. I'm tired now.PorFavor wrote:Goodnight, everyone.
Another trigger for the Incredible Clanger.http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-04- ... ependence/?
Sturgeon: A vote for SNP is not a vote for independence
Not arrived yet. Am on tenterhooks.citizenJA wrote:@tinyclanger2
Did you get your Labour party 'Hell, Yes!' t-shirt yet?
Isn't that a Tory/Dem marginal.DonutHingeParty wrote:Sorry, Labour, but putting in a doctor who lives in Scotland for North Somerset, although the symmetry with Liam Fox might be poetic, doesn't endear me to you on this occasion. I'll be hoping Ed wins nationally, but as Fox's majority is over 5k I may as well go for Green on this occasion.
Ah, hang on, Greg sounds a good guy...DonutHingeParty wrote:Sorry, Labour, but putting in a doctor who lives in Scotland for North Somerset, although the symmetry with Liam Fox might be poetic, doesn't endear me to you on this occasion. I'll be hoping Ed wins nationally, but as Fox's majority is over 5k I may as well go for Green on this occasion.
GREG CHAMBERS (Labour)
Greg says:
“I am delighted to be selected to fight the North Somerset seat for Labour at the General Election.
I’m Greg Chambers. I’m 37 and originally from Somerton, Somerset and so I’m used to the West Country. I am a doctor in Aberdeen at the moment, taking a break starting in October. I’m moving south to spend time with my girlfriend Ravinder and my 6 month old baby Gabriela.
Greg and Family
I’m planning on being a GP in the long-term. I did Maths and Philosophy at Leeds Uni originally, and spent a year in Rome and a year in Milan as well, which was great.
I worked in IT in London for about 5 years before returning to Uni in the West Country.
I studied medicine in Plymouth, Exeter, Truro and Barnstaple, which gave me a great insight into the key issues affecting people in rural areas.
I’m really looking forward to engaging people in North Somerset and seeing how we can set about changing the key issues of transport, housing, education and health for the better.”
http://94.136.40.103/~northsomersetlabo ... page_id=39" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
(My bold)frightful_oik wrote:Long term economic plan erm tough decisions erm hard-working families erm track record. Broken record more like. Some people actually think that pillock could be PM one day.danesclose wrote:In case anyone didn't see Jo Coburn eviscerate Sajid Javid on the Daily Politics earlier:
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
About as thoroughly damned Tory seat as it's possible to be...DonutHingeParty wrote:Sorry, Labour, but putting in a doctor who lives in Scotland for North Somerset, although the symmetry with Liam Fox might be poetic, doesn't endear me to you on this occasion. I'll be hoping Ed wins nationally, but as Fox's majority is over 5k I may as well go for Green on this occasion.
Yep.TechnicalEphemera wrote:Isn't that a Tory/Dem marginal.DonutHingeParty wrote:Sorry, Labour, but putting in a doctor who lives in Scotland for North Somerset, although the symmetry with Liam Fox might be poetic, doesn't endear me to you on this occasion. I'll be hoping Ed wins nationally, but as Fox's majority is over 5k I may as well go for Green on this occasion.
In which case, gulp, Lib Dem.
The first five I'm delighted with. I'd like for those last two achievements to be consigned to history with a warning tag attached to both. DON'T.diGriz wrote:Some interesting stats.
Labour wants you to trust them with the economy again: 7 charts that show how they coped last time they were in power
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 73328.html
I think the official line was - we don't care how much money you make as long as you pay your tax.citizenJA wrote:The first five I'm delighted with. I'd like for those last two achievements to be consigned to history with a warning tag attached to both. DON'T.diGriz wrote:Some interesting stats.
Labour wants you to trust them with the economy again: 7 charts that show how they coped last time they were in power
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 73328.html
Wage inequality was growing & house prices rose steadily, outstripping wage growth - apologies if I've misunderstood the last two Labour economic achievements.diGriz wrote:I think the official line was - we don't care how much money you make as long as you pay your tax.citizenJA wrote:The first five I'm delighted with. I'd like for those last two achievements to be consigned to history with a warning tag attached to both. DON'T.diGriz wrote:Some interesting stats.
Labour wants you to trust them with the economy again: 7 charts that show how they coped last time they were in power
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 73328.html
I'd like to believe that is true ... no way of knowing unless there's some footage being uploaded somewhere.Michael McCann retweeted
Kevin O'Donnell @kevwodonnell 46m46 minutes ago
Resounding Labour victory in the G East hustings for Margaret Curran. McGarry lost the audience. Margaret passionate about helping locals.
The previous Labour Government had introduced a one-off cut in the standard rate of VAT to 15%, from 1 December 2008 to 31 December 2009, as part of a fiscal stimulus to counteract the economic recession.The Chancellor, George Osborne, presented the Coalition Government’s first Budget to the House on 22 June 2010. In his Budget speech Mr Osborne announced a number of tax increases, as part of the Government’s approach to fiscal consolidation, of which by far the most significant in terms of the amounts to be raised was an increase in the standard rate of VAT, from 17.5% to 20% from 4 January 2011.
The increase in the standard rate was estimated to raise £12.1bn in 2011/12, rising to £13.5bn by 2014/15.
Introducing this measure, the Chancellor said:
"The years of debt and spending made this unavoidable. This single tax measure will by the end of this Parliament generate over £13 billion a year of extra revenues. That is £13 billion that we do not have to find from extra spending cuts or income tax rises. I can also give this House a commitment that we will keep everyday essentials such as food and children's clothing, as well as other zero-rated items like newspapers and printed books, exempt from VAT over the course of this Parliament."
Where'd that £13 billion a year go, Jeff? What did it pay for? Less. It paid for less than it could have otherwise have done. Is that about right or have I made a mistake? Please let me know."The years of debt and spending made this unavoidable. This single tax measure will by the end of this Parliament generate over £13 billion a year of extra revenues.
Like the others with very big majorities, she should survive if she's been reasonably hard working.rebeccariots2 wrote:I'd like to believe that is true ... no way of knowing unless there's some footage being uploaded somewhere.Michael McCann retweeted
Kevin O'Donnell @kevwodonnell 46m46 minutes ago
Resounding Labour victory in the G East hustings for Margaret Curran. McGarry lost the audience. Margaret passionate about helping locals.
She's wonderful!Tubby Isaacs wrote:Like the others with very big majorities, she should survive if she's been reasonably hard working.rebeccariots2 wrote:I'd like to believe that is true ... no way of knowing unless there's some footage being uploaded somewhere.Michael McCann retweeted
Kevin O'Donnell @kevwodonnell 46m46 minutes ago
Resounding Labour victory in the G East hustings for Margaret Curran. McGarry lost the audience. Margaret passionate about helping locals.
Bit pointless, how many housing association tenants can afford to buy?pk1 wrote:Oh FFS, Allegra Stratton just said the Cons are to announce Right to Buy Housing Association homes !
Where the fucking hell are people who can't get or don't want to own a house, supposed to live ?
What the fucking hell is so wrong with renting ?!