Monday 20th April 2015

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 3:13 pm

Kippers in the village today. Didn't come and talk to me though. Which is lucky. For them.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 3:18 pm

ErnstRemarx wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:Delivered my leaflets today. Couldn't get into a block of flats though, no main letter box.
Local party funds don't run to having the Royal Mail deliver, so unfortunately that'll be a whole bunch of prospective voters who think Labour can't be bothered.
Go in the morning, and press the 'trade' button if there is one - this should give you access (a trick I learned a few years back).

Tut, I already said that ^^^ !

I dunno, go to the effort of posting what seems to be helpful comments only for them to be ignored - and by a moderator too !!

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 3:20 pm

This is just crying out for a caption:

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 3:21 pm

pk1 wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:Delivered my leaflets today. Couldn't get into a block of flats though, no main letter box.
Local party funds don't run to having the Royal Mail deliver, so unfortunately that'll be a whole bunch of prospective voters who think Labour can't be bothered.
Blocks like that usually have a bell marked 'Trade' which allows access to all before a specific time - midday seems to be the norm round this way. Royal Mail must be granted permission to deliver letters (since tampering with mail is a criminal offence) hence the 'trade' access.

Our postman has keys to get in the blocks of flats...

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 3:28 pm

Just back from a neighbouring village canvassing session. Interesting - purely anecdotal and very small sample obviously - as we got a real impression of several of those who had previously voted Tory saying they were now undecided - with a strong whiff that that meant they were considering Ukip instead - with a couple actually saying that. We've not had that sense before in other places.

I spent a long time listening to a young mum who will probably vote Labour this time ... voted Tory in 2010 ... who was almost in despair over how their lives have become so much more difficult and uncertain over the past 5 years. She works for a social services run care home but the council (Ceredigion which has Plaid as the largest group) have been steadily closing down the council run services and hers is next in line. The service and her job will be outsourced and she knows that she will be paid substantially less and working conditions will not be as good - she could be sent all over the county. She has already lost her tax credits. She is scared of losing child benefit - or part of it - if the Tories come back into power. I hope Stephen Crabb knocks on her door so she can let him know how the Tories' economic miracle has worked for her.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 3:29 pm

pk1 wrote:This is just crying out for a caption:

Tory campaign hits the buffers?

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 3:29 pm

pk1 wrote:
ErnstRemarx wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:Delivered my leaflets today. Couldn't get into a block of flats though, no main letter box.
Local party funds don't run to having the Royal Mail deliver, so unfortunately that'll be a whole bunch of prospective voters who think Labour can't be bothered.
Go in the morning, and press the 'trade' button if there is one - this should give you access (a trick I learned a few years back).
Tut, I already said that ^^^ !

I dunno, go to the effort of posting what seems to be helpful comments only for them to be ignored - and by a moderator too !!

Yes - that's why I didn't bother to post my abseiling tip.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 3:37 pm

Patrick Wintour ‏@patrickwintour 8m8 minutes ago
This may be wrong or partial, but the detail challenges claim SNP manifesto is to left of Labour. http://labourlist.org/2015/04/one-two-t ... hting-for/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; … via @labourlist

Very interesting comparison chart in the linked article - looking at the Labour and SNP manifesto policy by policy and the likely impact, if any, of the SNP influence ...

mikems · Post by **mikems** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 3:42 pm

'And if the person whistling the Internationale doesn't come forward immediately, Mr Osborne will be keeping you all behind for extra P.E.'

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 3:43 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
pk1 wrote:This is just crying out for a caption:

Tory campaign hits the buffers?

and goes off the rails.

ErnstRemarx · Post by **ErnstRemarx** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 3:46 pm

pk1 wrote:
ErnstRemarx wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:Delivered my leaflets today. Couldn't get into a block of flats though, no main letter box.
Local party funds don't run to having the Royal Mail deliver, so unfortunately that'll be a whole bunch of prospective voters who think Labour can't be bothered.
Go in the morning, and press the 'trade' button if there is one - this should give you access (a trick I learned a few years back).
Tut, I already said that ^^^ !

I dunno, go to the effort of posting what seems to be helpful comments only for them to be ignored - and by a moderator too !!

Sorry PK, I saw the original post by Ohso and immediately posted in response, before continuing down the thread - and finding your exact same advice. Good to know others know this trick - I doubt many Tories do; after all how many of them deliver parcels and letter...?

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 3:51 pm

frightful_oik wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
pk1 wrote:This is just crying out for a caption:

Tory campaign hits the buffers?
and goes off the rails.

Courtesy of Toppledmonument BTL on the AS blog..."Looks like the train has hit the duffers"

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 3:58 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:Just back from a neighbouring village canvassing session. Interesting - purely anecdotal and very small sample obviously - as we got a real impression of several of those who had previously voted Tory saying they were now undecided - with a strong whiff that that meant they were considering Ukip instead - with a couple actually saying that. We've not had that sense before in other places.

I spent a long time listening to a young mum who will probably vote Labour this time ... voted Tory in 2010 ... who was almost in despair over how their lives have become so much more difficult and uncertain over the past 5 years. She works for a social services run care home but the council (Ceredigion which has Plaid as the largest group) have been steadily closing down the council run services and hers is next in line. The service and her job will be outsourced and she knows that she will be paid substantially less and working conditions will not be as good - she could be sent all over the county. She has already lost her tax credits. She is scared of losing child benefit - or part of it - if the Tories come back into power. I hope Stephen Crabb knocks on her door so she can let him know how the Tories' economic miracle has worked for her.

The leaflets I delivered this morning were for electing local councillors.
This is what it says about care workers:

We believe that this skilled and trained work force should be rewarded for their worth and contribution. The council [Tory] has commissioned out this work to private companies, but has refused to include pay and condition requirements to ensure the home care workforce get at least the living wage, paid travel time, sickness pay and no ZH contracts.
Labour would insist on these when contracting with commissioned providers.

I'd like to have seen them saying that care services would revert to the council again, but it doesn't look as if returning to the old way is going to be a feasible.

Also. We only have a couple of Labour councillors...
They say:

Labour councilors have taken a 20% cut in their entitled allowances for the last four years. If all the councillors both Tory and UKIP had done this, an extra £400,000 could have been spent on front line services.

ErnstRemarx · Post by **ErnstRemarx** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 4:01 pm

Lest anyone be downcast about the latest (silly) ICM poll, here's an article that shows considerably more awareness, and some very interesting figures...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 88173.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 4:15 pm

Finding it almost impossible to post or use FTN this afternoon. Slow beyond belief and keep getting 'general error' message. This seems to be happening quite frequently now. Anyone else experiencing this? Suggestions for what can be done, if anything? I keep imagining this happening on election night. Not good to be locked out at anytime ... but on election night ....

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 4:30 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:Finding it almost impossible to post or use FTN this afternoon. Slow beyond belief and keep getting 'general error' message. This seems to be happening quite frequently now. Anyone else experiencing this? Suggestions for what can be done, if anything? I keep imagining this happening on election night. Not good to be locked out at anytime ... but on election night ....

My panic-stricken, bordering on the hysterical, sentiments exactly.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 4:32 pm

General Error
SQL ERROR [ mysqli ]

Lost connection to MySQL server during query [2013]

An SQL error occurred while fetching this page. Please contact the Board Administrator if this problem persists.
Please notify the board administrator or webmaster: flythenestorguk@gmail.com

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 4:33 pm

ErnstRemarx wrote:Lest anyone be downcast about the latest (silly) ICM poll, here's an article that shows considerably more awareness, and some very interesting figures...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 88173.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

ICM isn't that silly this week tbh - it has a tie before adjusting for Tories being more likely to vote (though that doesn't take account of Labour's superior ground game)

Yes, I have tried to get onto here several times recently - only to get that dreaded "General Error" message

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 4:34 pm

@ Hobiejoe

Trying to thank you via normal channels has proved a thankless task - so, thank you.

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 4:37 pm

A plague of SQuirreLs, yet again.

ErnstRemarx · Post by **ErnstRemarx** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 4:39 pm

For everyone who's mentioned/noticed it, the errors seem to have subsided, so I imagine that Dan has restarted the SQL software - I will check and report back (and find out how to do it myself!).

Another interesting Indy article that nails the housing problem:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/busin ... 89495.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

ErnstRemarx · Post by **ErnstRemarx** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 4:41 pm

Finally - from being derided in the Tory meeja to apparently becoming crumpet... I bet Lynton and the boys at the Mail didn't envisage this when they sought to show Miliband as some sort of serial womaniser...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 87968.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

mikems · Post by **mikems** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 4:42 pm

Just saw Rogers post so deleted my nonsense.

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 4:44 pm

Lord Ashcroft
Ashcroft National Poll, 17-19 April: CON 34%, LAB 30%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%. Details on @ConHome, 4pm:

Yeah, right!

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 4:48 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:Finding it almost impossible to post or use FTN this afternoon. Slow beyond belief and keep getting 'general error' message. This seems to be happening quite frequently now. Anyone else experiencing this? Suggestions for what can be done, if anything? I keep imagining this happening on election night. Not good to be locked out at anytime ... but on election night ....

Same here - it's only now I've been able to get back on.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 4:53 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:Just back from a neighbouring village canvassing session. Interesting - purely anecdotal and very small sample obviously - as we got a real impression of several of those who had previously voted Tory saying they were now undecided - with a strong whiff that that meant they were considering Ukip instead - with a couple actually saying that. We've not had that sense before in other places.

I spent a long time listening to a young mum who will probably vote Labour this time ... voted Tory in 2010 ... who was almost in despair over how their lives have become so much more difficult and uncertain over the past 5 years. She works for a social services run care home but the council (Ceredigion which has Plaid as the largest group) have been steadily closing down the council run services and hers is next in line. The service and her job will be outsourced and she knows that she will be paid substantially less and working conditions will not be as good - she could be sent all over the county. She has already lost her tax credits. She is scared of losing child benefit - or part of it - if the Tories come back into power. I hope Stephen Crabb knocks on her door so she can let him know how the Tories' economic miracle has worked for her.

Oh surely not. Those lovely anti-austerity Plaid people wouldn't do that.
That nice Leanne Wood said they wouldn't have cuts and she wouldn't lie would she ?

Oops....hours in the garden haven't made me any less cynical about Wales' SNP wannabes.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 4:54 pm

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
Lord Ashcroft
Ashcroft National Poll, 17-19 April: CON 34%, LAB 30%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%. Details on @ConHome, 4pm:
Yeah, right!

I read [Smithson I think] that Tories had to improve on 4% before they got into seat gaining territory...

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 4:55 pm

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
Lord Ashcroft
Ashcroft National Poll, 17-19 April: CON 34%, LAB 30%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%. Details on @ConHome, 4pm:
Yeah, right!

Labour on the same percentage as the last GE - indeed, a likely story (not)

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 5:01 pm

Holyrood magazine
‏@HolyroodDaily

Edinburgh North & Leith: SNP on 43%, Lab 29%, Con 14% - according to latest polling from Lord Ashcroft.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 5:02 pm

Hope things are ok round where Letsskip lives.
There have been 600 deliberate fires started on grassland in the valleys.

As well as risking life and costing public services a fortune, if the arsonists continue they could block roads to polling stations on May 7th.

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales ... ed-9082791" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

ErnstRemarx · Post by **ErnstRemarx** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 5:02 pm

citizenJA wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:Finding it almost impossible to post or use FTN this afternoon. Slow beyond belief and keep getting 'general error' message. This seems to be happening quite frequently now. Anyone else experiencing this? Suggestions for what can be done, if anything? I keep imagining this happening on election night. Not good to be locked out at anytime ... but on election night ....
Same here - it's only now I've been able to get back on.

Dan's emailed to say he's going to check it out once he's back home, so I'll report his findings. I've also asked what I can do to help (being vaguely IT literate), since it sounds to me like the SQL database has done a whoopsie or the indexing's got screwed up. Seems to me that Dan having to do all the background work is unfair on him, and I'm sure he'd like the odd holiday secure in the knowledge that if FTN goes down then someone else will be able to get it running again. As an ex DBA and support person, I sort of fit the bill, but if others would like to help out (assuming that Dan can actually share the load, ie, it's feasible) then I suspect that would be reasonably wise.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 5:03 pm

@yahyah

Have PM'd you.

ErnstRemarx · Post by **ErnstRemarx** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 5:08 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
Lord Ashcroft
Ashcroft National Poll, 17-19 April: CON 34%, LAB 30%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 4%. Details on @ConHome, 4pm:
Yeah, right!
Labour on the same percentage as the last GE - indeed, a likely story (not)

Agreed. That looks a crock of shit to me, frankly. Did you check out the Indy story I posted earlier Anatoly? The one showing the figures in the key marginals? Looked rather more persuasive, given that they're the seats that will be lost and gained rather than the Surrey South Easts and Wigans of this world.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 5:10 pm

John Cooper ‏@John_Cooper_QC 59 mins59 minutes ago

Are the Thanet Tories really saying vote Labour in key marginal? http://ind.pn/1JZhv9h" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 5:17 pm

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB Apr 12

Panelbase S Times Scotland poll finds 51% saying they'd vote no in new IndyRef to 42% YES. Biggest gap since the referendum

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 5:39 pm

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 4 hrs4 hours ago
ENGLAND & WALES ONLY figures from today's Populus poll
CON 34.33%
LAB 35.18%
LD 8.52%
UKIP 16.10%
A 5.5% CON to LAB swing since 2010

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 5:43 pm

‏@adamboultonSKY 28 mins
Adam Boulton

CORRECTION @SkyNews POLL OF POLLS
CON 34%
LAB 33%
UKIP 13%
OTH 11%.

PROJECTION: HUNG CON 281 LAB 273 LD 18 UKIP 2 SNP 53 OTH 23 MPs
LD 9%

ErnstRemarx · Post by **ErnstRemarx** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 5:43 pm

On a very rare visit to the Graun, I find an article that links nicely to the one I posted above about house prices, and which nails the economic problems of the UK quite handily.

It should be more widely read.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/eco ... is-working" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 5:50 pm

Population of each of the following regions: London, SE, East of England, NW and W Midlands all bigger than Scotland (wrt population) and Yorkshire and Humberside very close. And only the NE is smaller than Wales.

When do the English regions get their say eh?

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 6:13 pm

The deadline for registering to vote expired just over an hour ago - the signs are cautiously optimistic that the recent appeals have had some effect.

And you can see Ed on the BBC tonight at 1930 hrs

diGriz · Post by **diGriz** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 6:15 pm

'Cool Ed Miliband' Imagines The Labour Leader As You've Never Seen Him Before
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/04 ... _hp_ref=uk

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 6:15 pm

Ian ‏@Mancman10 11 mins11 minutes ago Manchester, England
Today's Populus poll:
LAB 34%(=)
CON 32%(-1)
UKIP 15%(+1)
LDEM 9%(=)
#GE2015

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 6:16 pm

I've probably said this before but I really don't feel that the SNP will do quite so spectacularly well as is predicted.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 6:17 pm

Sunny Hundal ‏@sunny_hundal 2 hrs2 hours ago

More undecided voters are moving towards Labour than others; the least moving away from Labour - Lord Ashcroft poll

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 6:19 pm

Ian ‏@Mancman10 16 mins16 minutes ago Manchester, England
Polls 2day:

YG: LAB 35 CON 34 UKIP 13 LD 8
Pop: LAB 34 CON 32 UKIP 15 LD 9
ICM:CON 34 LAB 32 UKIP 11 LD 10
Ash:CON 34 LAB 30 UKIP 13 LD 10

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 6:28 pm

Cameron, ecstatic at the thought of all those SNP/Green votes helping him beat Labour.

Or did he eat too many baked beans for lunch ?

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 6:29 pm

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 7 hrs7 hours ago
YouGov/TES poll of teachers has

44% Labour
29% Tory
10% LD
7% UKIP
6% Greens
At GE10 CON had 1% lead

ErnstRemarx · Post by **ErnstRemarx** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 6:32 pm

ohsocynical wrote:Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 7 hrs7 hours ago
YouGov/TES poll of teachers has

44% Labour
29% Tory
10% LD
7% UKIP
6% Greens
At GE10 CON had 1% lead

I saw that - unsurprising, given that Gove did his level best to destroy teaching as a career and vocation. Morgan is simply doing the same policy a little more stealthily. That's a lot of votes to lose, and parents will no doubt be influenced.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 6:37 pm

ohsocynical wrote:Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 7 hrs7 hours ago
YouGov/TES poll of teachers has

44% Labour
29% Tory
10% LD
7% UKIP
6% Greens
At GE10 CON had 1% lead

That 7% UKIP is worrying. Would have hoped intelligent folk would not go along with their policies.

Eric_WLothian · Post by **Eric_WLothian** » Mon 20 Apr, 2015 6:38 pm

yahyah wrote:

Cameron, ecstatic at the thought of all those SNP/Green votes helping him beat Labour.

Or did he eat too many baked beans for lunch ?

...and anybody who believes this will believe anything:

SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon promised voters in the rest of the UK her party would use its influence after the General Election “responsibly and constructively”.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/t ... -1-3747111

The pose in the Scotsman photo is probably a Freudian slip - but today is the birthday of another well known National Socialist leader!