Comres poll out at 10 is being tweets as "interesting". So another outlier then.AngryAsWell wrote:Totally agree diGriz, I don't think they are worth the pixels they're written in.diGriz wrote:I stopped following the polls ages ago, they don't tally with general events which leads me to think they are heavily manipulated. Extremely possible with the right money and contacts. With hindsight it will be interesting when the only poll that matters has taken place. We can go back and see what is really going on.rearofthestore wrote:So Survation poll tonight suggests that the Labour vote overall is down by nearly 1% since last election.
More garbage.
Thursday 23rd April 2015
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Welcome to FTN. New posters are welcome to join the conversation. You can follow us on Twitter @FlythenestHaven You are responsible for the content you post. This is a public forum. Treat it as if you are speaking in a crowded room. Site admin and Moderators are volunteers who will respond as quickly as they are able to when made aware of any complaints. Please do not post copyrighted material without the original authors permission.
Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 1 hr1 hour ago
There is no truth in the rumour that the Conservative Party is considering changing its name to the English National Party...
There is no truth in the rumour that the Conservative Party is considering changing its name to the English National Party...
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
- TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
This is from the Indy - a write up of Tower Hamlets case.
How is this different to Cameron's right to buy gift of up to 100,000 pounds to 20,000 people?A key tool in Mr Rahman’s electoral armoury was “bribery by grant”, under which he and a small number of aides took control of deciding the sums to be donated to community groups, the judge found.
Mr Mawrey said grants were substantially increased for some groups in defiance of recommendations by Tower Hamlets’ officials and other grants, such as that to the Alzheimer’s Society, slashed to free up funds for previously ineligible recipients. In one case, grants totalling £100,000 were handed out to ten Bangladeshi or other Muslim groups for lunch clubs when none had even applied for funding.
Release the Guardvarks.
Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
The tories new website http://justnotuptoit.com/
Which party leader would you actually think this described?
[edit] and you can send them a message too.
Which party leader would you actually think this described?
Priceless really.'Too weak to stand up for himself'
'He just gets gamed out every day'
'No positive messages to communicate to anyone...no policies which will persuade them'
[edit] and you can send them a message too.
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
If you hover over the 'pins' the word you will see most often is "former". The Tories really don't get the interwebz, do they?diGriz wrote:The tories new website http://justnotuptoit.com/
Which party leader would you actually think this described?
Priceless really.'Too weak to stand up for himself'
'He just gets gamed out every day'
'No positive messages to communicate to anyone...no policies which will persuade them'
[edit] and you can send them a message too.
COWER BRIEF MORTALS. HO. HO. HO.
Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Goodnight, everyone.
- rebeccariots2
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
E's aving a laff ... ain't he?ohsocynical wrote:Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 1 hr1 hour ago
There is no truth in the rumour that the Conservative Party is considering changing its name to the English National Party...
Working on the wild side.
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Election 2015: Sheffield Hallam turns on 'traitor' Nick Clegg as Labour storms into contention
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/election-2015- ... on-1498040
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
[youtube]yTmEqJYJf9Y[/youtube]
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Night PFPorFavor wrote:Goodnight, everyone.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Well indeed. Seems like local gov is much more circumscribed. And religious element is being treated as different here.TechnicalEphemera wrote:This is from the Indy - a write up of Tower Hamlets case.
How is this different to Cameron's right to buy gift of up to 100,000 pounds to 20,000 people?A key tool in Mr Rahman’s electoral armoury was “bribery by grant”, under which he and a small number of aides took control of deciding the sums to be donated to community groups, the judge found.
Mr Mawrey said grants were substantially increased for some groups in defiance of recommendations by Tower Hamlets’ officials and other grants, such as that to the Alzheimer’s Society, slashed to free up funds for previously ineligible recipients. In one case, grants totalling £100,000 were handed out to ten Bangladeshi or other Muslim groups for lunch clubs when none had even applied for funding.
Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Too late for them to learn from mistakes. Saying that, have they ever?RobertSnozers wrote:They're still trying the personal attacks? Did they not learn that was counterproductive three weeks ago!diGriz wrote:The tories new website http://justnotuptoit.com/
Which party leader would you actually think this described?
Priceless really.'Too weak to stand up for himself'
'He just gets gamed out every day'
'No positive messages to communicate to anyone...no policies which will persuade them'
[edit] and you can send them a message too.
Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Goodnight, PF.PorFavor wrote:Goodnight, everyone.
Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Goodnight, friends.
love
cJA
love
cJA
- AngryAsWell
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
@yahyah
How ya doing ?
Please drop in and say Hi
We got a new smiley
How ya doing ?
Please drop in and say Hi
We got a new smiley
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 7 mins7 minutes ago
Interesting from @Election4castUK
Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK
if the GB vote ends up level in the actual election, we do estimate a slight advantage for Lab.
Interesting from @Election4castUK
Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK
if the GB vote ends up level in the actual election, we do estimate a slight advantage for Lab.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Not long to waitMike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 52 mins52 minutes ago
There's going to be another Survation poll at 10pm
Mike Smithson added,
Two election poll releases in one day? Yes, we have some really cool stuff coming at 10pm, stay tuned. #pollercoaster
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
- frightful_oik
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Latest ComRes poll:
CON – 36% (+2)
LAB – 32% (-1)
UKIP – 12% (-2)
LDEM – 8% (-4)
CON – 36% (+2)
LAB – 32% (-1)
UKIP – 12% (-2)
LDEM – 8% (-4)
Shake your chains to earth like dew
Which in sleep had fallen on you-
Ye are many - they are few."
Which in sleep had fallen on you-
Ye are many - they are few."
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes 1m1 minute ago
New ComRes poll for @DailyMailUK / @itvnews has 4-pt CON LEAD (up 3) Con 36 Lab 32 LD 8 UKIP 10 Grn 5
BUGGER!
New ComRes poll for @DailyMailUK / @itvnews has 4-pt CON LEAD (up 3) Con 36 Lab 32 LD 8 UKIP 10 Grn 5
BUGGER!
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Tim Montgomerie ن @montie · 3h 3 hours ago
Told I cld (theoretically) be expelled from Tories for urging @TheTimes readers to vote Clegg! http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/c ... 419599.ece" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …
Working on the wild side.
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Look at the UKIP scores on those polls. Let's wait for the tables.
Shake your chains to earth like dew
Which in sleep had fallen on you-
Ye are many - they are few."
Which in sleep had fallen on you-
Ye are many - they are few."
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 3m 3 minutes ago
Tonight's ComRes phone poll for the Mail/ITV sees CON with 4% lead
Con: 36%
Lab: 32%
LD: 8%
UKIP: 10%
Green: 5%
Working on the wild side.
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- TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
The big question is what will YouGov show. So far Labour +3 in one poll -4 in two.ohsocynical wrote:Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes 1m1 minute ago
New ComRes poll for @DailyMailUK / @itvnews has 4-pt CON LEAD (up 3) Con 36 Lab 32 LD 8 UKIP 10 Grn 5
BUGGER!
I tend to discount ComRes as they seem to seek out edge cases.
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Can someone do the (un-)weighting on these polls?
What were the scores before all the magic jiggery pokery they do?
Remember. With the SNP winning all or nearly all Scottish seats, the numbers that matter are in ENGLAND ONLY. Scotland is gone.
If there is an England swing of 4%, EM is comfortably PM with SNP MPs.
EM is now 4/6 to be PM, the shortest odds for months
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... l-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
What were the scores before all the magic jiggery pokery they do?
Remember. With the SNP winning all or nearly all Scottish seats, the numbers that matter are in ENGLAND ONLY. Scotland is gone.
If there is an England swing of 4%, EM is comfortably PM with SNP MPs.
EM is now 4/6 to be PM, the shortest odds for months
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... l-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
- rebeccariots2
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Just to add to the little moment of downness ... I arrived at my first customer of the day this morning to find her fixing a party sticker to her car rear window. My one and only bit of political campaigning she said as she smoothed the sticker on. 'Vote Mark Williams' it said in a sickly yellow orange way. Well - there had to be one.
Working on the wild side.
- TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Don't know, note the different view of UKIP in all polls. Is there a shy UKIP problem with telephone polling? Note also sometimes they are up, sometimes down.SpinningHugo wrote:Can someone do the (un-)weighting on these polls?
What were the scores before all the magic jiggery pokery they do?
Remember. With the SNP winning all or nearly all Scottish seats, the numbers that matter are in ENGLAND ONLY. Scotland is gone.
If there is an England swing of 4%, EM is comfortably PM with SNP MPs.
EM is now 4/6 to be PM, the shortest odds for months
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... l-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
We await YouGov with interest and some concern.
Release the Guardvarks.
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
There has been a clear Ukip swing: it is the only thing that has happened in the polls.TechnicalEphemera wrote:Don't know, note the different view of UKIP in all polls. Is there a shy UKIP problem with telephone polling? Note also sometimes they are up, sometimes down.SpinningHugo wrote:Can someone do the (un-)weighting on these polls?
What were the scores before all the magic jiggery pokery they do?
Remember. With the SNP winning all or nearly all Scottish seats, the numbers that matter are in ENGLAND ONLY. Scotland is gone.
If there is an England swing of 4%, EM is comfortably PM with SNP MPs.
EM is now 4/6 to be PM, the shortest odds for months
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... l-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
We await YouGov with interest and some concern.
If I were a Ukipper (and not even my worst enemy would say I resemble that) I'd be moaning that that is being ignored.
Say it quietly, but maybe Farage won the debates (if 'won' means convinced 1-2% to back him).
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Andrew Hawkins @Andrew_ComRes 10 mins10 minutes ago
MT @drjennings: even based on those numbers from ComRes, Conservatives/LibDems well short of forming a coalition.
Andrew Hawkins added,
Based on our poll, these are the seat projections by Prof Colin Rallings CON 287 LAB 274 SNP 54 LD 10 PC 3 UKIP 2 @itvnews
MT @drjennings: even based on those numbers from ComRes, Conservatives/LibDems well short of forming a coalition.
Andrew Hawkins added,
Based on our poll, these are the seat projections by Prof Colin Rallings CON 287 LAB 274 SNP 54 LD 10 PC 3 UKIP 2 @itvnews
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Has there? Doesn't look like it to me. Up in one, down in one and stuck at an improbably low 10% in ComRes.SpinningHugo wrote:There has been a clear Ukip swing: it is the only thing that has happened in the polls.TechnicalEphemera wrote:Don't know, note the different view of UKIP in all polls. Is there a shy UKIP problem with telephone polling? Note also sometimes they are up, sometimes down.SpinningHugo wrote:Can someone do the (un-)weighting on these polls?
What were the scores before all the magic jiggery pokery they do?
Remember. With the SNP winning all or nearly all Scottish seats, the numbers that matter are in ENGLAND ONLY. Scotland is gone.
If there is an England swing of 4%, EM is comfortably PM with SNP MPs.
EM is now 4/6 to be PM, the shortest odds for months
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... l-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
We await YouGov with interest and some concern.
If I were a Ukipper (and not even my worst enemy would say I resemble that) I'd be moaning that that is being ignored.
Say it quietly, but maybe Farage won the debates (if 'won' means convinced 1-2% to back him).
I don't think we have a UKIP swing.
Release the Guardvarks.
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2m 2 minutes ago
We are still waiting for a promised Survation poll and the usual YouGov. I'm told the former will be within the next 10 minutes
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
rebeccariots2 wrote:Sorry, sorry - snap - repeat snap - grovel.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
They're taking divisive to a new extreme.Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 3m3 minutes ago
EXCL: English workers could pay a lower income tax rate than the rest of UK under Tory pledge, George Osborne reveals http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/ne ... festo.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …
What's that Sooty? Oh .... you say the Scots, Welsh and Sweep don't like this? Uh, uhhuh, but the English love it .... Spot on Sooty.
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Muppet, he can't afford it.rebeccariots2 wrote:They're taking divisive to a new extreme.Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 3m3 minutes ago
EXCL: English workers could pay a lower income tax rate than the rest of UK under Tory pledge, George Osborne reveals http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/ne ... festo.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …
What's that Sooty? Oh .... you say the Scots, Welsh and Sweep don't like this? Uh, uhhuh, but the English love it .... Spot on Sooty.
Release the Guardvarks.
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 1 min1 minute ago
At GE10 the Tories had an 11.4% lead in England's 533 seats. Tonight's ComRes has a 5% one
At GE10 the Tories had an 11.4% lead in England's 533 seats. Tonight's ComRes has a 5% one
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
- frightful_oik
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Survation have Farage up by 9% in South Thanet.
Ukip 39
Con 30
Lab 26
Ukip 39
Con 30
Lab 26
Shake your chains to earth like dew
Which in sleep had fallen on you-
Ye are many - they are few."
Which in sleep had fallen on you-
Ye are many - they are few."
- AngryAsWell
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
I keep saying the polls are bent and I believe they are. All run by Tory's.
If I'm wrong and this is right, the UK - esp England - is full of out and out twats.
ENGLAND ONLY figures from ComRes
CON 39
LAB 34
LD 8
UKIP 11
A 3.2% CON to LAB swing since GE 10
If I'm wrong and this is right, the UK - esp England - is full of out and out twats.
ENGLAND ONLY figures from ComRes
CON 39
LAB 34
LD 8
UKIP 11
A 3.2% CON to LAB swing since GE 10
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Will Thorpe @Withorpe 1 hr1 hour ago
Remember Tory expenses cheat Maria Miller? Here's latest polling from her Basingstoke seat:
Con 28%
Lab 27%
Fingers crossed
Remember Tory expenses cheat Maria Miller? Here's latest polling from her Basingstoke seat:
Con 28%
Lab 27%
Fingers crossed
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
- TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Which doesn't suggest a Con surge there at least.frightful_oik wrote:Survation have Farage up by 9% in South Thanet.
Ukip 39
Con 30
Lab 26
Release the Guardvarks.
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
rebeccariots2 wrote:They're taking divisive to a new extreme.Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn 3m3 minutes ago
EXCL: English workers could pay a lower income tax rate than the rest of UK under Tory pledge, George Osborne reveals http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/ne ... festo.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …
What's that Sooty? Oh .... you say the Scots, Welsh and Sweep don't like this? Uh, uhhuh, but the English love it .... Spot on Sooty.
So companies with branches in all parts of the UK will have different rates of tax depending on where their places are?
Yeah, that'll work...
If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
The last one I saw from there had all three pretty much equal - was it 29/30/31?frightful_oik wrote:Survation have Farage up by 9% in South Thanet.
Ukip 39
Con 30
Lab 26
If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.
Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
YouGov 2 point labour lead
LAB 35%
CON 33%
UKIP 13%
LD 8%
GRN 5%
LAB 35%
CON 33%
UKIP 13%
LD 8%
GRN 5%
Last edited by adam on Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
I still believe in a town called Hope
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
And relax...
3s 3 seconds ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour have a two-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
3s 3 seconds ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour have a two-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
Shake your chains to earth like dew
Which in sleep had fallen on you-
Ye are many - they are few."
Which in sleep had fallen on you-
Ye are many - they are few."
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Britain Elects @britainelects 24s25 seconds ago
Latest YouGov poll (22 - 23 Apr):
LAB - 35% (+1)
CON - 33% (-)
UKIP - 13% (-1)
LDEM - 8% (+1)
GRN - 5% (-)
Latest YouGov poll (22 - 23 Apr):
LAB - 35% (+1)
CON - 33% (-)
UKIP - 13% (-1)
LDEM - 8% (+1)
GRN - 5% (-)
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Snap and good night
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Why is it I get the impression that Smithson is a tadore excited when a poll shows Labour trailing?
Maybe it's just me?
Maybe it's just me?
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Chris Ship @chrisshipitv 3 mins3 minutes ago
Interesting. Our @itvnews poll projects CON 287 LAB 274 SNP 54 LD 10. So party 2 (on vote share)governs with party 4
Ian Katz @iankatz1000
Nicola Sturgeon tells #newsnight tonight she will prop up Lab govt even if Tories have up to 40 more seats than Lab.
http://bbc.in/1OihUti" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Interesting. Our @itvnews poll projects CON 287 LAB 274 SNP 54 LD 10. So party 2 (on vote share)governs with party 4
Ian Katz @iankatz1000
Nicola Sturgeon tells #newsnight tonight she will prop up Lab govt even if Tories have up to 40 more seats than Lab.
http://bbc.in/1OihUti" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Since you ask (and I know others think it is pointless) the ComRes poll is highly dubious IMO (I sound a lot like broken record I know).SpinningHugo wrote:Can someone do the (un-)weighting on these polls?
What were the scores before all the magic jiggery pokery they do?
Remember. With the SNP winning all or nearly all Scottish seats, the numbers that matter are in ENGLAND ONLY. Scotland is gone.
If there is an England swing of 4%, EM is comfortably PM with SNP MPs.
EM is now 4/6 to be PM, the shortest odds for months
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... l-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Poll sample size is actually only 817 before weighting only 654 after weighting
Things that stand out Age Group 25-34 CONS 39% LAB 28% Con Lead 11%
In fact lead for CON as compared to LAB is based on just 234 people as opposed to 212 people
Results for Scotland ridiculous but based on a sample of just 55 people unweighted
FWIW
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Re: Thursday 23rd April 2015
Whoo. That was exciting...Off to bed to calm down.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop