Thursday 23rd April 2015

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 8:49 pm

AngryAsWell wrote:
diGriz wrote:
rearofthestore wrote:So Survation poll tonight suggests that the Labour vote overall is down by nearly 1% since last election.
More garbage.
I stopped following the polls ages ago, they don't tally with general events which leads me to think they are heavily manipulated. Extremely possible with the right money and contacts. With hindsight it will be interesting when the only poll that matters has taken place. We can go back and see what is really going on.
Totally agree diGriz, I don't think they are worth the pixels they're written in.

Comres poll out at 10 is being tweets as "interesting". So another outlier then.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 8:52 pm

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 1 hr1 hour ago

There is no truth in the rumour that the Conservative Party is considering changing its name to the English National Party...

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 8:52 pm

This is from the Indy - a write up of Tower Hamlets case.

A key tool in Mr Rahman’s electoral armoury was “bribery by grant”, under which he and a small number of aides took control of deciding the sums to be donated to community groups, the judge found.
Mr Mawrey said grants were substantially increased for some groups in defiance of recommendations by Tower Hamlets’ officials and other grants, such as that to the Alzheimer’s Society, slashed to free up funds for previously ineligible recipients. In one case, grants totalling £100,000 were handed out to ten Bangladeshi or other Muslim groups for lunch clubs when none had even applied for funding.

How is this different to Cameron's right to buy gift of up to 100,000 pounds to 20,000 people?

diGriz · Post by **diGriz** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 8:55 pm

The tories new website http://justnotuptoit.com/

Which party leader would you actually think this described?

'Too weak to stand up for himself'

'He just gets gamed out every day'

'No positive messages to communicate to anyone...no policies which will persuade them'

Priceless really.

[edit] and you can send them a message too.

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 9:06 pm

diGriz wrote:The tories new website http://justnotuptoit.com/

Which party leader would you actually think this described?

'Too weak to stand up for himself'

'He just gets gamed out every day'

'No positive messages to communicate to anyone...no policies which will persuade them'
Priceless really.

[edit] and you can send them a message too.

If you hover over the 'pins' the word you will see most often is "former". The Tories really don't get the interwebz, do they?

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 9:13 pm

Goodnight, everyone.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 9:17 pm

ohsocynical wrote:Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 1 hr1 hour ago

There is no truth in the rumour that the Conservative Party is considering changing its name to the English National Party...

E's aving a laff ... ain't he?

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 9:25 pm

Election 2015: Sheffield Hallam turns on 'traitor' Nick Clegg as Labour storms into contention

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/election-2015- ... on-1498040

Post by **refitman** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 9:26 pm

[youtube]yTmEqJYJf9Y[/youtube]
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 9:29 pm

PorFavor wrote:Goodnight, everyone.

Night PF

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 9:33 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote:This is from the Indy - a write up of Tower Hamlets case.

A key tool in Mr Rahman’s electoral armoury was “bribery by grant”, under which he and a small number of aides took control of deciding the sums to be donated to community groups, the judge found.
Mr Mawrey said grants were substantially increased for some groups in defiance of recommendations by Tower Hamlets’ officials and other grants, such as that to the Alzheimer’s Society, slashed to free up funds for previously ineligible recipients. In one case, grants totalling £100,000 were handed out to ten Bangladeshi or other Muslim groups for lunch clubs when none had even applied for funding.
How is this different to Cameron's right to buy gift of up to 100,000 pounds to 20,000 people?

Well indeed. Seems like local gov is much more circumscribed. And religious element is being treated as different here.

diGriz · Post by **diGriz** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 9:34 pm

RobertSnozers wrote:
diGriz wrote:The tories new website http://justnotuptoit.com/

Which party leader would you actually think this described?

'Too weak to stand up for himself'

'He just gets gamed out every day'

'No positive messages to communicate to anyone...no policies which will persuade them'
Priceless really.

[edit] and you can send them a message too.
They're still trying the personal attacks? Did they not learn that was counterproductive three weeks ago!

Too late for them to learn from mistakes. Saying that, have they ever?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 9:36 pm

PorFavor wrote:Goodnight, everyone.

Goodnight, PF.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 9:38 pm

Goodnight, friends.
love
cJA

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 9:45 pm

@yahyah
How ya doing ?
Please drop in and say Hi

We got a new smiley

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 9:49 pm

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 7 mins7 minutes ago

Interesting from @Election4castUK

Election Forecast UK @Election4castUK
if the GB vote ends up level in the actual election, we do estimate a slight advantage for Lab.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 9:59 pm

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 52 mins52 minutes ago

There's going to be another Survation poll at 10pm

Mike Smithson added,

Two election poll releases in one day? Yes, we have some really cool stuff coming at 10pm, stay tuned. #pollercoaster

Not long to wait

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:02 pm

Latest ComRes poll:
CON – 36% (+2)
LAB – 32% (-1)
UKIP – 12% (-2)
LDEM – 8% (-4)

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:03 pm

Andrew Hawkins ‏@Andrew_ComRes 1m1 minute ago

New ComRes poll for @DailyMailUK / @itvnews has 4-pt CON LEAD (up 3) Con 36 Lab 32 LD 8 UKIP 10 Grn 5

BUGGER!

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:04 pm

Tim Montgomerie ن @montie · 3h 3 hours ago
Told I cld (theoretically) be expelled from Tories for urging @TheTimes readers to vote Clegg! http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/c ... 419599.ece" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:04 pm

Look at the UKIP scores on those polls. Let's wait for the tables.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:04 pm

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 3m 3 minutes ago
Tonight's ComRes phone poll for the Mail/ITV sees CON with 4% lead
Con: 36%
Lab: 32%
LD: 8%
UKIP: 10%
Green: 5%

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:05 pm

Sorry, sorry - snap - repeat snap - grovel.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:06 pm

ohsocynical wrote:Andrew Hawkins ‏@Andrew_ComRes 1m1 minute ago

New ComRes poll for @DailyMailUK / @itvnews has 4-pt CON LEAD (up 3) Con 36 Lab 32 LD 8 UKIP 10 Grn 5

BUGGER!

The big question is what will YouGov show. So far Labour +3 in one poll -4 in two.

I tend to discount ComRes as they seem to seek out edge cases.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:08 pm

Can someone do the (un-)weighting on these polls?

What were the scores before all the magic jiggery pokery they do?

Remember. With the SNP winning all or nearly all Scottish seats, the numbers that matter are in ENGLAND ONLY. Scotland is gone.

If there is an England swing of 4%, EM is comfortably PM with SNP MPs.

EM is now 4/6 to be PM, the shortest odds for months

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... l-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:09 pm

Just to add to the little moment of downness ... I arrived at my first customer of the day this morning to find her fixing a party sticker to her car rear window. My one and only bit of political campaigning she said as she smoothed the sticker on. 'Vote Mark Williams' it said in a sickly yellow orange way. Well - there had to be one.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:11 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:Can someone do the (un-)weighting on these polls?

What were the scores before all the magic jiggery pokery they do?

Remember. With the SNP winning all or nearly all Scottish seats, the numbers that matter are in ENGLAND ONLY. Scotland is gone.

If there is an England swing of 4%, EM is comfortably PM with SNP MPs.

EM is now 4/6 to be PM, the shortest odds for months

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... l-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Don't know, note the different view of UKIP in all polls. Is there a shy UKIP problem with telephone polling? Note also sometimes they are up, sometimes down.

We await YouGov with interest and some concern.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:13 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:Can someone do the (un-)weighting on these polls?

What were the scores before all the magic jiggery pokery they do?

Remember. With the SNP winning all or nearly all Scottish seats, the numbers that matter are in ENGLAND ONLY. Scotland is gone.

If there is an England swing of 4%, EM is comfortably PM with SNP MPs.

EM is now 4/6 to be PM, the shortest odds for months

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... l-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Don't know, note the different view of UKIP in all polls. Is there a shy UKIP problem with telephone polling? Note also sometimes they are up, sometimes down.

We await YouGov with interest and some concern.

There has been a clear Ukip swing: it is the only thing that has happened in the polls.

If I were a Ukipper (and not even my worst enemy would say I resemble that) I'd be moaning that that is being ignored.

Say it quietly, but maybe Farage won the debates (if 'won' means convinced 1-2% to back him).

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:14 pm

Andrew Hawkins ‏@Andrew_ComRes 10 mins10 minutes ago

MT @drjennings: even based on those numbers from ComRes, Conservatives/LibDems well short of forming a coalition.

Andrew Hawkins added,

Based on our poll, these are the seat projections by Prof Colin Rallings CON 287 LAB 274 SNP 54 LD 10 PC 3 UKIP 2 @itvnews

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:16 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:
SpinningHugo wrote:Can someone do the (un-)weighting on these polls?

What were the scores before all the magic jiggery pokery they do?

Remember. With the SNP winning all or nearly all Scottish seats, the numbers that matter are in ENGLAND ONLY. Scotland is gone.

If there is an England swing of 4%, EM is comfortably PM with SNP MPs.

EM is now 4/6 to be PM, the shortest odds for months

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... l-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Don't know, note the different view of UKIP in all polls. Is there a shy UKIP problem with telephone polling? Note also sometimes they are up, sometimes down.

We await YouGov with interest and some concern.
There has been a clear Ukip swing: it is the only thing that has happened in the polls.

If I were a Ukipper (and not even my worst enemy would say I resemble that) I'd be moaning that that is being ignored.

Say it quietly, but maybe Farage won the debates (if 'won' means convinced 1-2% to back him).

Has there? Doesn't look like it to me. Up in one, down in one and stuck at an improbably low 10% in ComRes.

I don't think we have a UKIP swing.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:17 pm

Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB · 2m 2 minutes ago
We are still waiting for a promised Survation poll and the usual YouGov. I'm told the former will be within the next 10 minutes

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:19 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:Sorry, sorry - snap - repeat snap - grovel.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:20 pm

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 3m3 minutes ago
EXCL: English workers could pay a lower income tax rate than the rest of UK under Tory pledge, George Osborne reveals http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/ne ... festo.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …

They're taking divisive to a new extreme.

What's that Sooty? Oh .... you say the Scots, Welsh and Sweep don't like this? Uh, uhhuh, but the English love it .... Spot on Sooty.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:21 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:
Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 3m3 minutes ago
EXCL: English workers could pay a lower income tax rate than the rest of UK under Tory pledge, George Osborne reveals http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/ne ... festo.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …
They're taking divisive to a new extreme.

What's that Sooty? Oh .... you say the Scots, Welsh and Sweep don't like this? Uh, uhhuh, but the English love it .... Spot on Sooty.

Muppet, he can't afford it.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:22 pm

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 1 min1 minute ago

At GE10 the Tories had an 11.4% lead in England's 533 seats. Tonight's ComRes has a 5% one

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:24 pm

Survation have Farage up by 9% in South Thanet.

Ukip 39
Con 30
Lab 26

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:24 pm

I keep saying the polls are bent and I believe they are. All run by Tory's.
If I'm wrong and this is right, the UK - esp England - is full of out and out twats.

ENGLAND ONLY figures from ComRes
CON 39
LAB 34
LD 8
UKIP 11
A 3.2% CON to LAB swing since GE 10

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:26 pm

Will Thorpe ‏@Withorpe 1 hr1 hour ago

Remember Tory expenses cheat Maria Miller? Here's latest polling from her Basingstoke seat:
Con 28%
Lab 27%
Fingers crossed

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:26 pm

frightful_oik wrote:Survation have Farage up by 9% in South Thanet.

Ukip 39
Con 30
Lab 26

Which doesn't suggest a Con surge there at least.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:28 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:
Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 3m3 minutes ago
EXCL: English workers could pay a lower income tax rate than the rest of UK under Tory pledge, George Osborne reveals http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/ne ... festo.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; …
They're taking divisive to a new extreme.

What's that Sooty? Oh .... you say the Scots, Welsh and Sweep don't like this? Uh, uhhuh, but the English love it .... Spot on Sooty.

So companies with branches in all parts of the UK will have different rates of tax depending on where their places are?

Yeah, that'll work...

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:29 pm

frightful_oik wrote:Survation have Farage up by 9% in South Thanet.

Ukip 39
Con 30
Lab 26

The last one I saw from there had all three pretty much equal - was it 29/30/31?

Post by **adam** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:30 pm

YouGov 2 point labour lead

LAB 35%
CON 33%
UKIP 13%
LD 8%
GRN 5%

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:31 pm

And relax...
3s 3 seconds ago

YouGov/Sun poll tonight – Labour have a two-point lead: CON 33%, LAB 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:31 pm

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 24s25 seconds ago
Latest YouGov poll (22 - 23 Apr):
LAB - 35% (+1)
CON - 33% (-)
UKIP - 13% (-1)
LDEM - 8% (+1)
GRN - 5% (-)

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:32 pm

Snap and good night

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:34 pm

Why is it I get the impression that Smithson is a tadore excited when a poll shows Labour trailing?

Maybe it's just me?

Post by **adam** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:35 pm

[youtube]xQK45_WLfxY[/youtube]

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:35 pm

Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 3 mins3 minutes ago

Interesting. Our @itvnews poll projects CON 287 LAB 274 SNP 54 LD 10. So party 2 (on vote share)governs with party 4

Ian Katz @iankatz1000
Nicola Sturgeon tells #newsnight tonight she will prop up Lab govt even if Tories have up to 40 more seats than Lab.
http://bbc.in/1OihUti" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

rearofthestore · Post by **rearofthestore** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:36 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:Can someone do the (un-)weighting on these polls?

What were the scores before all the magic jiggery pokery they do?

Remember. With the SNP winning all or nearly all Scottish seats, the numbers that matter are in ENGLAND ONLY. Scotland is gone.

If there is an England swing of 4%, EM is comfortably PM with SNP MPs.

EM is now 4/6 to be PM, the shortest odds for months

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/bri ... l-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Since you ask (and I know others think it is pointless) the ComRes poll is highly dubious IMO (I sound a lot like broken record I know).
Poll sample size is actually only 817 before weighting only 654 after weighting
Things that stand out Age Group 25-34 CONS 39% LAB 28% Con Lead 11%
In fact lead for CON as compared to LAB is based on just 234 people as opposed to 212 people
Results for Scotland ridiculous but based on a sample of just 55 people unweighted
FWIW

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 23 Apr, 2015 10:37 pm

Whoo. That was exciting...Off to bed to calm down.