Monday 27th April 2015 - GE minus 10 days

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 3:42 pm

Tubby, I see your tweet #name on some of Peter Juke's tweets about the letter.

How do we report the Tory to see if he has breached the lobbying law re charities?

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 3:52 pm

Telegraph seems to have dropped the letter from its online front page. Wonder why

?

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 3:59 pm

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 4m4 minutes ago

New @LordAshcroft marginals polling sees
LAB GAIN Cannock Chase
CON HOLD UKIP targets of Castle Point & Gt Yarmouth
LAB HOLD Gt Grimsby

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:00 pm

More from Zelo st.

4556 - Helen Jalland. Chief Artist, Tinkerbell Nursery (she paints those freaky newborn dolls - certainly not the business owner)

557 - Lorraine Morgan - admin & payroll, BGM Installations

645 - Anthony Johns - brainmemeorymaps.com - amateur website advertising his free self-published e-book from 2007.The download link is broken. However you can find his other ebooks on subject such as "Was Christ a cyborg? Does not appear to have a job

873 - Demetra Pinsett - CEO Charlotte Tilbury - was a Director at McKinsey until 2 years ago. Married to Matthew Pinset, so not really one of the squeezed middle.

1062 - Henry Sanders - 'Only person' - Cornelius Beaumont - some glorified ebay selling page with 7 items for sale

1213 - David Lilley - sole proprietor - not a small business owner, not an employer and actually retired

1290 - Charles Duance - MD Digital Samurai - so tech savvy his website domain appears to have expired. Moans on twitter about Scottish foodbanks getting funding rather than English ones

THIS IS A CORKER

1304 - Keith Dewhurst, Chair Diverse Cymru. Diverse Wales is a registered charity helping the disabled. Its not a small business and I bet they don't know about this.

He's a former senior BBC manager standing as the Conservative parliamentary candidate for Cynon Valley

1549 - Tina Powerful - MD - Everest school of Transformational leadership
V dodgy fake college with unaccredited degrees.
Looks like she's facing criminal charges and it goes to trial later this year
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-be ... s-30248576" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:00 pm

If you scroll passed the "BBC Daily Politics home affairs debate: summary" on AS blog there is a video of Ed speech. Its good

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/liv ... es-cameron" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:00 pm

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 40 secs41 seconds ago

CON move to 6% lead in @LordAshcroft national poll
CON 36+2
LAB 30=
LD 9-1
UKIP 11-2
GN 7+3

I really should have put a tenner accumulator on my poll prediction from this morning

rearofthestore · Post by **rearofthestore** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:01 pm

I don't just want to disbelieve it , I really do disbelieve it especially given the marginal polling that have appeared at the same time

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft 47s48 seconds ago
Ashcroft National Poll, 24-26 April: CON 36%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 7%. Full details on @ConHome, 4pm

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:01 pm

Ashcroft National Poll, 24-26 April: CON 36%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 7%.

AS IF !!!

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:04 pm

Here's Ashcroft's constituency polling, released today

rearofthestore · Post by **rearofthestore** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:09 pm

Spacedone wrote:
Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 40 secs41 seconds ago

CON move to 6% lead in @LordAshcroft national poll
CON 36+2
LAB 30=
LD 9-1
UKIP 11-2
GN 7+3
I really should have put a tenner accumulator on my poll prediction from this morning

So looking at it
CON lead LAB age group 18-24 31% to 26%
CON lead LAB Scotland 23% to 14%
CON lead LAB North 35% to 34%
So really believable then

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:10 pm

Details of those constituency polls:

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:10 pm

pk1 wrote:Here's Ashcroft's constituency polling, released today

Great Yarmouth. Lib-Dems down to 2% from 14% and it hasn't benefited Labour at all? Really?

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:10 pm

Cannock Chase

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:12 pm

pk1 wrote:Ashcroft National Poll, 24-26 April: CON 36%, LAB 30%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 11%, GRN 7%.

AS IF !!!

He really should drop these national polls. His regional polling has some merit but he uses such small samples on the nationals, and then restricts the samples further by filtering for 2010 voting, that the results are utterly meaningless. It ties in with Spacedone's comment above about the smaller sample sizes favouring the Tories, Ashcroft is usually ending up with little more than 500 being used to represent the entire electorate. I'm embarrassed for him.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:12 pm

Looks like an outlier, and the individual seats look more consistent with the national swing in other polls.

Polls are of GB, not UK, and in GB Labour got 30% in 2010. Nobody but nobody thinks there will be no improvement on that, and so this is just rubbish.

rearofthestore · Post by **rearofthestore** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:15 pm

rearofthestore wrote:
Spacedone wrote:
Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 40 secs41 seconds ago

CON move to 6% lead in @LordAshcroft national poll
CON 36+2
LAB 30=
LD 9-1
UKIP 11-2
GN 7+3
I really should have put a tenner accumulator on my poll prediction from this morning
So looking at it
CON lead LAB age group 18-24 31% to 26%
CON lead LAB Scotland 23% to 14%
CON lead LAB North 35% to 34%
So really believable then

Should say Voting Intention based on weighted base of 558: CON 201 LAB 167
So total garbage again, how can he put his name to that?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:17 pm

rearofthestore wrote:
rearofthestore wrote:
Spacedone wrote: I really should have put a tenner accumulator on my poll prediction from this morning
So looking at it
CON lead LAB age group 18-24 31% to 26%
CON lead LAB Scotland 23% to 14%
CON lead LAB North 35% to 34%
So really believable then
Should say Voting Intention based on weighted base of 558: CON 201 LAB 167
So total garbage again, how can he put his name to that?

'Cause he's got a 'Lord' attached to the front of it?

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:20 pm

yahyah wrote:Tubby, I see your tweet #name on some of Peter Juke's tweets about the letter.

How do we report the Tory to see if he has breached the lobbying law re charities?

I was the one who mentioned it first!
Though another chap mentioned the Charities Act which might be relevant.

Someone in Labour needs to report it and get it on the news.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:22 pm

It may not be a bad thing, may sharpen minds as to how to vote on May 7th if headlines scream 6% Tory lead.

& Electionforecast.uk prediction now gives Plaid 56% chance of regaining my constituency from the Lib Dems.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:23 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
yahyah wrote:Tubby, I see your tweet #name on some of Peter Juke's tweets about the letter.

How do we report the Tory to see if he has breached the lobbying law re charities?
I was the one who mentioned it first!
Though another chap mentioned the Charities Act which might be relevant.

Someone in Labour needs to report it and get it on the news.

Sorry, I don't really understand how Twitter works.
I've emailed Diverse Cymru to ask about what they are doing about it.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:27 pm

rearofthestore wrote:
rearofthestore wrote:
Spacedone wrote: I really should have put a tenner accumulator on my poll prediction from this morning
So looking at it
CON lead LAB age group 18-24 31% to 26%
CON lead LAB Scotland 23% to 14%
CON lead LAB North 35% to 34%
So really believable then
Should say Voting Intention based on weighted base of 558: CON 201 LAB 167
So total garbage again, how can he put his name to that?

Of the 1000,
Conservatives 251
Labour 216
Don't know 88
Refused 96
Would not vote 97

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:30 pm

yahyah wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:
yahyah wrote:Tubby, I see your tweet #name on some of Peter Juke's tweets about the letter.

How do we report the Tory to see if he has breached the lobbying law re charities?
I was the one who mentioned it first!
Though another chap mentioned the Charities Act which might be relevant.

Someone in Labour needs to report it and get it on the news.

Sorry, I don't really understand how Twitter works.
I've emailed Diverse Cymru to ask about what they are doing about it.

Excellent work!

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:30 pm

I don't use [or understand] Facebook but have just been told Diverse Cymru have issued a statement about it on there.

Could someone be kind enough to cut and paste it, or provide an accessable link ?

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:36 pm

One for Rebecca Riots. Dewhurst with Stephen Crabb.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:39 pm

[

quote="yahyah"]I don't use [or understand] Facebook but have just been told Diverse Cymru have issued a statement about it on there.

Could someone be kind enough to cut and paste it, or provide an accessable link ?

Diverse Cymru
20 mins ·
Diverse Cymru is a registered charity and would like to state categorically that we are not affiliated with, allied to or supporters of any political party in compliance with the relevant Charity Commission laws, regulations and guidelines.
At Diverse Cymru, we aim to make a real difference to people’s lives by reducing inequality, increasing independence and raising awareness of equality issues.
To achieve these aims we engage with all elected officials and decision makers, regardless of their political party and affiliation, to work on policies that actively promote and secure equality across Wales.
Diverse Cymru’s name should not and should never appear on any list of political endorsements such as the one published today in the Telegraph of entrepreneurs of small businesses, neither of which terms apply to Diverse Cymru.
We believe we were included in error and have contacted the Conservative Party to remove our name from this list immediately, and are also working to ensure that Diverse Cymru is not similarly cited in future.
Diverse Cymru’s Board includes individuals with a wide-range of political opinions and has a strict policy on board member’s party affiliations not forming part of Board discussions or decisions.
Although our Chair, Keith Dewhurst, is an active member of the Conservative Party and is currently campaigning for the upcoming election these activities are independent to and separate from the work he undertakes on behalf of Diverse Cymru.
If you have any further questions or queries please contact Stewart Harding in our Communications Team on 029 2036 8888 ext. 4 or at stewart@diversecymru.org.uk.[/quote]

rearofthestore · Post by **rearofthestore** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:39 pm

yahyah wrote:I don't use [or understand] Facebook but have just been told Diverse Cymru have issued a statement about it on there.

Could someone be kind enough to cut and paste it, or provide an accessable link ?

Here is the statement

Diverse Cymru
20 mins ·
Diverse Cymru is a registered charity and would like to state categorically that we are not affiliated with, allied to or supporters of any political party in compliance with the relevant Charity Commission laws, regulations and guidelines.
At Diverse Cymru, we aim to make a real difference to people’s lives by reducing inequality, increasing independence and raising awareness of equality issues.
To achieve these aims we engage with all elected officials and decision makers, regardless of their political party and affiliation, to work on policies that actively promote and secure equality across Wales.
Diverse Cymru’s name should not and should never appear on any list of political endorsements such as the one published today in the Telegraph of entrepreneurs of small businesses, neither of which terms apply to Diverse Cymru.
We believe we were included in error and have contacted the Conservative Party to remove our name from this list immediately, and are also working to ensure that Diverse Cymru is not similarly cited in future.
Diverse Cymru’s Board includes individuals with a wide-range of political opinions and has a strict policy on board member’s party affiliations not forming part of Board discussions or decisions.
Although our Chair, Keith Dewhurst, is an active member of the Conservative Party and is currently campaigning for the upcoming election these activities are independent to and separate from the work he undertakes on behalf of Diverse Cymru.
If you have any further questions or queries please contact Stewart Harding in our Communications Team on 029 2036 8888 ext. 4 or at stewart@diversecymru.org.uk.

rearofthestore · Post by **rearofthestore** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:41 pm

Sorry Ohso. Once again I'm trailing in your wake.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:42 pm

Will the BBC mention any of this ?

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:42 pm

John Jones
Today at 4:02pm
Please advise me why your Charity is apparently supporting the Conservative party .In doing so you are in breach of Legislation . A response would be appreciated .
11Like · Comment

Paul Sandham
Today at 1:57pm
Your chair Keith Dewhurst is using the name of your organisation as a "business" that supports the Conservatives in the upcoming election. This information is clearly visible on the Telegraph website. How is this possible? My understanding of legislation governing charities is that you are not able to promote a party at any time. You may promote or support policy changes etc but not promote a party. You are in breach of UK legislation governing charities. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... tives.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

A couple of the comments....

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:46 pm

Just to say if they are as adamant as they say about not being involved politically, then surely Dewhurst should have been aware of the rules?
He needs a hard slap !

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 4:52 pm

It certainly needs to be followed through to find out what he was up to.
If, for example, he was doing Tory related stuff at work and that's when he linked their name.

A slap may be a little harsh. Being subject to disciplinary action at work would be preferable.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 5:14 pm

I have tweeted Jamie Grierson (who has taken over AS' blog for the evening) & asked if he wants to publish the statement on the blog.

edit to add that he has now published the statement in full.

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 5:31 pm

Good spot from Richard on UKPR:
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/generalelection/ ... new-polls/
scroll down to the graph.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 6:03 pm

rearofthestore wrote:
citizenJA wrote:
Spacedone wrote: That says it all really. The largest the sample size (and therefore the smaller the margin of error) the more likely it is to favour Labour regardless of weighting.
The larger the number of people polled, the more likely the result will be Labour leading.
On 7 May 2015 the people will be asked to vote at their polling stations.
Please vote Labour.
Thank you.
I live in the extreme marginal of High Peak which may be decided by just a handful of votes. Mrs RotS and I have today voted so ours are already in the ballot box so to speak. First really marginal seat vote I have cast since Colne Valley in 1974.

We could do with you voting here too

Still absolutely too close to call here in Colne Valley.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 6:10 pm

Evening yahyah and All

Just to say I thought posts today on SNP / Plaid were informative and well-placed. I don't want to be seen as some kind of Nat post censor

It's the final of four hustings for the candidates here in Colne Valley tonight, in the small town of Marsden, which can be a remarkably politically charged place where all of Lab, Tory, Lib, Green and UKIP have vocal supporters.

I'm not going but will pass on any updates on which arguments are winning the day.

mikems · Post by **mikems** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 6:25 pm

This Ashcroft poll will now take, oh about a week to ten day to work its way through the various 'poll of polls' being published, distorting the picture nicely in the run up, perhaps enough to persuade people that the tories are gaining a crossover, when they probably aren't at all.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 6:36 pm

Has anyone heard the Eddie Mair/Sturgeon interview ?

Apparently he pointed out that Labour & SNP have the same policies in key areas [according to a Cif poster who heard it].

Does that mean the SNP are Red Tories ?

Who can a lefty Scot vote for

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 6:52 pm

Close your eyes Paul.

One of the frothers on AS blog:

'the ... SNP will be representing the MAJORITY of Scots. Are we not allowed a voice in westmonster?'

Westmonster ? Truly the UK's version of the Tea Party.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 6:55 pm

yahyah wrote:

Some of the signees.

Allow me to present you with the Toby Latimer Photoshopping Award - you've come best in the supremely tacky category. Many congratulations.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 6:58 pm

A new poll from ComRes and BBC Newsnight has found 55% believe the leader of the party with most MPs should become prime minister, while a third - or 34% - think it should be the leader who can form a partnership of the largest number of MPs including those from smaller parties.

According to the results, more people are concerned about Ukip supporting a government than any of the other smaller parties.

More than half - or 56% - say they are concerned about Ukip lending their support to one of the two main parties in order to govern, compared to 52% concerned about the SNP. (Guardian Election Blog)

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 6:59 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:
yahyah wrote:

Some of the signees.
Allow me to present you with the Toby Latimer Photoshopping Award - you've come best in the supremely tacky category. Many congratulations.

Thank you for the honour.
I thank my mother, my hamster, my marmite on toast, the person on Twitter who I pinched it from...Grant Shapps himself of course <wipes eyes> and all those people in my life who have enabled me to become what I am today.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 7:07 pm

yahyah wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:
yahyah wrote:

Some of the signees.
Allow me to present you with the Toby Latimer Photoshopping Award - you've come best in the supremely tacky category. Many congratulations.
Thank you for the honour.
I thank my mother, my hamster, my marmite on toast, the person on Twitter who I pinched it from...Grant Shapps himself of course <wipes eyes> and all those people in my life who have enabled me to become what I am today.

I want that blonde wig

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 7:11 pm

I needed to read something good & James Meek's article just posted was excellent.

'Who will protect, provide, shelter, build?' Why privatisation is the key to the election
For a century, left and right in Britain believed in universal access to education, health and housing. The Thatcher era changed everything. As the political parties battle it out, is there any alternative to the privatisation, breakup and foreign takeover of vital services?

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... e-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Apologies to friends who don't read from the G these days. I haven't provided more than the link, author & title. It's all I can do at the moment.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 7:13 pm

Dan Hodges ‏@DPJHodges 1h1 hour ago
This questioning of Miliband's legitimacy to govern is no longer silly it's dangerous. God knows, I'm no fan. But if he wins, he wins.

diGriz · Post by **diGriz** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 7:16 pm

Rentoul and Dale on LBC just agreed that Ed Miliband will be PM.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 7:24 pm

I just heard the 'makes me pumped up' snippet of Cameron's 'passion' speech.

Please Radio 4 - you need to supply sick bags and a four minute warning before broadcasting something like that.

Euuuurrrrrghhh.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 7:24 pm

In the library today and took the trouble to look up what the books say about Diocletian and the Edict of AD301 on price fixing.

And surprise, surprise...no mention of rent. At all.

From a 1947 article:

According to the evidence available, and it is certain that the whole edict has not been recovered, price"ceilings" for over 900 commodities, 130 different grades of labour, and a considerable number of freight rates, were fixed and severe punishment promised
to all "black market" operators who dared to buy or sell above the maximum.

Boris the Liar - who'd have thunk it eh?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 7:32 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:I just heard the 'makes me pumped up' snippet of Cameron's 'passion' speech.

Please Radio 4 - you need to supply sick bags and a four minute warning before broadcasting something like that.

Euuuurrrrrghhh.

David Cameron told Channel 5 News he wants to return to Number 10 “very badly”.
"I want this very badly. It’s not for me. It’s for people and the jobs in this country. There are 2 million more people in work [since the coalition]. I want to build on that platform. I feel very fired up by it. I see there’s a risk of going right back to square one.
I am hungrier than five years ago."

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/liv ... a3d74a87b0" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

(my bold)

A commentator below the line elsewhere pointed out this utterly disastrous choice of words from Cameron.

onebuttonmonkey · Post by **onebuttonmonkey** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 7:34 pm

citizenJA wrote:I needed to read something good & James Meek's article just posted was excellent.
'Who will protect, provide, shelter, build?' Why privatisation is the key to the election
For a century, left and right in Britain believed in universal access to education, health and housing. The Thatcher era changed everything. As the political parties battle it out, is there any alternative to the privatisation, breakup and foreign takeover of vital services?

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... e-election" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Apologies to friends who don't read from the G these days. I haven't provided more than the link, author & title. It's all I can do at the moment.

If you've not read his book, Private Island, I really cannot recommend it enough. An absolutely fantastic collection of essays on the privatisation of this country.

His (longread) article In Farageland is also something I plug a lot - it's one of the best things published on the reality of Farage and Thanet.

http://www.lrb.co.uk/v36/n19/james-meek/in-farageland

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Mon 27 Apr, 2015 7:36 pm

Iain Martin retweeted
Gerry Hassan ‏@GerryHassan 4m4 minutes ago
TNS Scotland poll: SNP 32% lead over Labour:
SNP 54% (+2)
Lab 22% (-2)
Con 13% (=)
LDem 6% (=)
Green 2% (-1)
UKIP 2% (+1)
#GE2015

Kiran Stacey ‏@kiranstacey 8m8 minutes ago
Voters in our Glasgow East focus group think Margaret Curran will lose her seat. Most think Tories will win nationally, but don't care.

It's the 'don't care' that gets me.