Wednesday 29th April 2015

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AngryAsWell
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by AngryAsWell »

AngryAsWell wrote:Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick · 2 mins2 minutes ago
250,000 ballot papers now gone missing in stolen printers' van, covering Eastbourne and Hastings seats, and local elections.

http://www.eastbourneherald.co.uk/news/ ... -1-6716437" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

“Effectively, this means that all the ballot papers intended for use at polling stations on May 7 are in circulation and in the possession of persons unknown.
Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

AngryAsWell wrote:Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick · 2 mins2 minutes ago
250,000 ballot papers now gone missing in stolen printers' van, covering Eastbourne and Hastings seats, and local elections.
Giligan suspects Lutfur Rahman.
PorFavor
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by PorFavor »

I was neither for nor against Ed Miliband's conversation with Russell Brand. (I'm also a bit ambivalent about Russell Brand himself - who can infuriate and exasperate me, but who sometimes talks sense and, yes, usually makes me laugh.)

However, I should have trusted Ed Miliband's instincts. Also, my respect for Russell Brand has increased. Not because he seems supportive of Ed Miliband but because he treated the situation seriously and didn't turn it into a joke\publicity stunt - which I thought that he might do.
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citizenJA
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by citizenJA »

Ed Miliband is fundamentally consistent regardless who he's speaking with - respectful, straightforward & reliable. That can't be faked, it has to be lived to be real. Miliband is honest too. It's the best way, really. It takes too much energy to lie & eventually the truth comes out making a liar look the ass they are.

I think Miliband believes in his heart all people are fundamentally equal, each important & none more important than another.

sorry about grammar problems
Last edited by citizenJA on Wed 29 Apr, 2015 3:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS 10m10 minutes ago
New exclusive May2015/BMG Research poll:

Conservative: 35%
Labour: 32%
Ukip: 14%
Lib Dems: 11%
SNP: 4%
Greens: 3%
Are this lot any good?
seeingclearly
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by seeingclearly »

I've seen a fair few posts saying we haven't seen a politician like this for a long time.
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AngryAsWell
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by AngryAsWell »

Martin Rowson ‏@MartinRowson · 1 hr1 hour ago
Just watched #Milibrand & kept thinking "What's Ed going to look like in 5 yrs time & how will I draw him?" Wonder if this means anything?

:clap:
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citizenJA
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by citizenJA »

PorFavor wrote:I was neither for nor against Ed Miliband's conversation with Russell Brand. (I'm also a bit ambivalent about Russell Brand himself - who can infuriate and exasperate me, but who sometimes talks sense and, yes, usually makes me laugh.)

However, I should have trusted Ed Miliband's instincts. Also, my respect for Russell Brand has increased. Not because he seems supportive of Ed Miliband but because he treated the situation seriously and didn't turn it into a joke\publicity stunt - which I thought that he might do.
I lack an appreciation of Brand's humour, I'm not a fan, but so what? Your observation regarding increased regard for Brand is good. Someone without a heart can remain immune to sincerity. Miliband's sincerity is trustworthy.
letsskiptotheleft
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by letsskiptotheleft »

Clegg had better throw in the towel, Rocket Ronnie has endorsed Oliver Coppard.
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citizenJA
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by citizenJA »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS 10m10 minutes ago
New exclusive May2015/BMG Research poll:

Conservative: 35%
Labour: 32%
Ukip: 14%
Lib Dems: 11%
SNP: 4%
Greens: 3%
Are this lot any good?
I've never heard of them.

http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/who-we-are/our-values/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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AngryAsWell
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by AngryAsWell »

letsskiptotheleft wrote:Clegg had better throw in the towel, Rocket Ronnie has endorsed Oliver Coppard.
Sorry to be dumb but who is he?
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citizenJA
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by citizenJA »

AngryAsWell wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick · 2 mins2 minutes ago
250,000 ballot papers now gone missing in stolen printers' van, covering Eastbourne and Hastings seats, and local elections.

http://www.eastbourneherald.co.uk/news/ ... -1-6716437" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

“Effectively, this means that all the ballot papers intended for use at polling stations on May 7 are in circulation and in the possession of persons unknown.
Oh, jesus christ!
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citizenJA
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by citizenJA »

AngryAsWell wrote:
letsskiptotheleft wrote:Clegg had better throw in the towel, Rocket Ronnie has endorsed Oliver Coppard.
Sorry to be dumb but who is he?
Nick Clegg is Deputy Prime Minister - a Liberal Democrat losing his seat & getting kicked out of government by his Sheffield Hallam constituency next week.
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by Spacedone »

AngryAsWell wrote:
letsskiptotheleft wrote:Clegg had better throw in the towel, Rocket Ronnie has endorsed Oliver Coppard.
Sorry to be dumb but who is he?
http://labourlist.org/2015/04/snooker-c ... r-coppard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by Spacedone »

citizenJA wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick · 2 mins2 minutes ago
250,000 ballot papers now gone missing in stolen printers' van, covering Eastbourne and Hastings seats, and local elections.

http://www.eastbourneherald.co.uk/news/ ... -1-6716437" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

“Effectively, this means that all the ballot papers intended for use at polling stations on May 7 are in circulation and in the possession of persons unknown.
Oh, jesus christ!
So one is a Lib-Con marginal and the other is a Con-Lab marginal... anyone think there won't be a legal challenge of the results because of this?
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by Spacedone »

Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick 3m3 minutes ago

John Turner of Assoc of Electoral Administrators estimates c.3m people have now voted by post. If so, that's 10% or more, of likely turnout
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by frightful_oik »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS 10m10 minutes ago
New exclusive May2015/BMG Research poll:

Conservative: 35%
Labour: 32%
Ukip: 14%
Lib Dems: 11%
SNP: 4%
Greens: 3%
Are this lot any good?
Lib Dems: 11%.
No.
Shake your chains to earth like dew
Which in sleep had fallen on you-
Ye are many - they are few."
Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

That was my thought too.
PorFavor
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by PorFavor »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick · 2 mins2 minutes ago
250,000 ballot papers now gone missing in stolen printers' van, covering Eastbourne and Hastings seats, and local elections.
Giligan suspects Lutfur Rahman.
Can they not have them reprinted with a distinguising mark which identifies them as being from the fresh batch? (Of course, I don't know how many ballot papers there are involved in total and whether the missing batch can be identifiable to a particular polling stations. If you get my drift.)

But the fundamental issue of the vulnerability of ballot papers is deeply concerning and is a whole different bunch of bananas (and republics).
Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB now
Ashcroft Sheffield Hallam
CON 15
LAB 37
LD 36
UKIP 7
GN 4
ohsocynical
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

We're getting half poetic justice at the moment.

Tory MPs are avoiding their local hustings, because they'll be confronted by people they've harmed and be expected to give a good account of themselves.

I wonder what they thought would happen when it was time for a GE? Did they think they'd allowed plenty of time for us to have knuckled down? Wafted into space? My reckoning is that instead of looking inward and admitting they could have been wrong, they're blaming us.

I'd stake my life Dave is, especially hearing his remark about Brand not being worth it.

One thing's for sure they'll be hating our guts for humiliating them, and if they get in we'd better hunker down. In fact if this generation of Tories ever get in again, we've had it.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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danesclose
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by danesclose »

Following Ed Miliband's interview with Russell Brand, David Cameron decided he'd better "get down with Da kidz"

[youtube]gyYFeHOvAv4[/youtube]
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by tinybgoat »

citizenJA wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:
letsskiptotheleft wrote:Clegg had better throw in the towel, Rocket Ronnie has endorsed Oliver Coppard.
Sorry to be dumb but who is he?
Nick Clegg is Deputy Prime Minister - a Liberal Democrat losing his seat & getting kicked out of government by his Sheffield Hallam constituency next week.
Towel being thrown...
tonight 7:30
"We have invited Conservative, Green, Labour, Lib Dem, and UKIP candidates.
Acceptances to date from Labour, Green, Conservative. Mr Clegg is unable to
attend but will send a representative. No response yet from UKIP.
All welcome.
Wesley Hall, Crookes,
Sheffield, Hallam"
https://meetyournextmp.com/area/197-sheffield-hallam
Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Image

Come on let's squeeze those Greens!
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ephemerid
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by ephemerid »

seeingclearly wrote:I've seen a fair few posts saying we haven't seen a politician like this for a long time.
Good.

It's about time - some of us have been saying he has the makings of a ( possibly great, in time) statesman.

Nice to see a few more people finally catching on.....
"Poverty is the worst form of violence" - Mahatma Gandhi
pk1
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by pk1 »

Sheffield Hallam:
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AngryAsWell
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by AngryAsWell »

Spacedone wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:
letsskiptotheleft wrote:Clegg had better throw in the towel, Rocket Ronnie has endorsed Oliver Coppard.
Sorry to be dumb but who is he?
http://labourlist.org/2015/04/snooker-c ... r-coppard/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Thanks, I do know his name now, 'twas the nick-name that baffled me :lol:
pk1
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by pk1 »

Thanet South & Swindon South:
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Spacedone
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by Spacedone »

The Spectator thinks that Miliband being interviewed by Brand was "demeaning". At least Cameron can be relied on never to demean himself for votes eh?

[youtube]gyYFeHOvAv4[/youtube]
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by Willow904 »

RogerOThornhill wrote:
Willow904 wrote: The Tories can't win.

That's my positive spin!

Whether Scotland votes Labour or SNP, it doesn't matter. It changes nothing for the Tories, as they will still not be able to scrape together enough support to get to a majority (remember the Libdems are set to be wiped out in Scotland too, not just Labour!) and, to a degree, it changes nothing for Labour either because Labour need to win in England & Wales, if they are to brave the storm of media cries of illegitimacy that will accompany any Labour-led government. A collapse in Labour voters tactically voting in Tory/Libdem marginals will let Tories in, but they will also boost Labour's overall vote share and as we appear to be heading for a seriously hung parliament, Labour really need to top vote share and seats in England & Wales if they possibly can and then, whatever happens with the SNP, the Tories will be well and truly stuffed.
I was just pondering...if Labour calculated that they'd get the SNP's support whatever happened as they couldn't possibly be seen to back the Tories, then is it likely that Miliband stuck Jim Murphy up there to run the campaign deliberately?

"Sorry about that Jim, and you lost your seat too? Ah well, these things happen"
"Phew! that's got rid of another of the New Labour types"

A bit too Machiavellian?
With 6 months to the election, I think it was the dull, old "safe pair of hands" choice. There wasn't time for a newbie to make an impact or learn the ropes. I think the debates justified the choice. Murphy's experience enabled him to more than hold his own and given the disillusioned were already lost to SNP, maybe a more old school, safe choice was a better bet to shore up the remaining Labour vote. All of which is quite beside the point that it was the Scottish Labour party that picked Murphy, not Ed, so if it was a deliberate ploy, it really would have taken some pulling off!
As to whether or not Ed may have been secretly rather pleased about the development, however, I really couldn't say. ;)
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
Eric_WLothian
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by Eric_WLothian »

PorFavor wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick · 2 mins2 minutes ago
250,000 ballot papers now gone missing in stolen printers' van, covering Eastbourne and Hastings seats, and local elections.
Giligan suspects Lutfur Rahman.
Can they not have them reprinted with a distinguising mark which identifies them as being from the fresh batch? (Of course, I don't know how many ballot papers there are involved in total and whether the missing batch can be identifiable to a particular polling stations. If you get my drift.)

But the fundamental issue of the vulnerability of ballot papers is deeply concerning and is a whole different bunch of bananas (and republics).
Presumably the serial numbers of papers already sent by post are recorded against the addressee - so checkable. Serial numbers of those stolen will be known. Easy to print a new batch on coloured paper so a pain in the administrative neck but not a huge problem, I would have thought.
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by rearofthestore »

frightful_oik wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:
May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS 10m10 minutes ago
New exclusive May2015/BMG Research poll:

Conservative: 35%
Labour: 32%
Ukip: 14%
Lib Dems: 11%
SNP: 4%
Greens: 3%
Are this lot any good?
Lib Dems: 11%.
No.
Appears to be an outfit that uses telephone polling and telephone polls have tended to favour the Cons.
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by StephenDolan »

pk1 wrote:Sheffield Hallam:
29.9%. Wow.
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by Spacedone »

tinybgoat wrote:
citizenJA wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote: Sorry to be dumb but who is he?
Nick Clegg is Deputy Prime Minister - a Liberal Democrat losing his seat & getting kicked out of government by his Sheffield Hallam constituency next week.
Towel being thrown...
tonight 7:30
"We have invited Conservative, Green, Labour, Lib Dem, and UKIP candidates.
Acceptances to date from Labour, Green, Conservative. Mr Clegg is unable to
attend but will send a representative. No response yet from UKIP.
All welcome.
Wesley Hall, Crookes,
Sheffield, Hallam"
https://meetyournextmp.com/area/197-sheffield-hallam
Again?! This is the third time he's been "too busy" to face his own electorate.
pk1
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by pk1 »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS 10m10 minutes ago
New exclusive May2015/BMG Research poll:

Conservative: 35%
Labour: 32%
Ukip: 14%
Lib Dems: 11%
SNP: 4%
Greens: 3%
Are this lot any good?
This is their first political poll & as yet, aren't members of the BPC so shouldn't be included in any 'poll of polls'. They have this statement on their tables:
BMG are not yet members of the British Polling Council but are in the process of applying to become members, and abided by BPC rules in carrying out their poll.
ohsocynical
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

AngryAsWell wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick · 2 mins2 minutes ago
250,000 ballot papers now gone missing in stolen printers' van, covering Eastbourne and Hastings seats, and local elections.

http://www.eastbourneherald.co.uk/news/ ... -1-6716437" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

“Effectively, this means that all the ballot papers intended for use at polling stations on May 7 are in circulation and in the possession of persons unknown.
Surely all they need to do is issue a rubber stamp and an ink pad. When the voting paper is handed over to the voter they stamp it. Or am I being simple?
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by rearofthestore »

pk1 wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:
May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS 10m10 minutes ago
New exclusive May2015/BMG Research poll:

Conservative: 35%
Labour: 32%
Ukip: 14%
Lib Dems: 11%
SNP: 4%
Greens: 3%
Are this lot any good?
This is their first political poll & as yet, aren't members of the BPC so shouldn't be included in any 'poll of polls'. They have this statement on their tables:
BMG are not yet members of the British Polling Council but are in the process of applying to become members, and abided by BPC rules in carrying out their poll.
Smithson not impressed
Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 36m36 minutes ago
BMG polls need to publish methodology info and detailed datasets ASAP in same manner as all established pollsters.
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by Spacedone »

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 12 mins12 minutes ago
Before turnout weighting and don't know re-allocation in @LordAshcroft Swindon S poll LAB was 2% ahead
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by SpinningHugo »

rearofthestore wrote:
frightful_oik wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote: Are this lot any good?
Lib Dems: 11%.
No.
Appears to be an outfit that uses telephone polling and telephone polls have tended to favour the Cons.
They are online pollsters.

As this is their first poll, we have no idea about them.

Pattern of journals not getting the results they want from inhouse pollsters continues. May2015 is the New Statesman.
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by Eric_WLothian »

ohsocynical wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote:Michael Crick ‏@MichaelLCrick · 2 mins2 minutes ago
250,000 ballot papers now gone missing in stolen printers' van, covering Eastbourne and Hastings seats, and local elections.

http://www.eastbourneherald.co.uk/news/ ... -1-6716437" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

“Effectively, this means that all the ballot papers intended for use at polling stations on May 7 are in circulation and in the possession of persons unknown.
Surely all they need to do is issue a rubber stamp and an ink pad. When the voting paper is handed over to the voter they stamp it. Or am I being simple?
Come to think of it - papers are punched with an array of holes when handed to the voter - so no problem. (Don't know whether this is done to papers sent out by post).
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

tinybgoat wrote:
citizenJA wrote:
AngryAsWell wrote: Sorry to be dumb but who is he?
Nick Clegg is Deputy Prime Minister - a Liberal Democrat losing his seat & getting kicked out of government by his Sheffield Hallam constituency next week.
Towel being thrown...
tonight 7:30
"We have invited Conservative, Green, Labour, Lib Dem, and UKIP candidates.
Acceptances to date from Labour, Green, Conservative. Mr Clegg is unable to
attend but will send a representative. No response yet from UKIP.
All welcome.
Wesley Hall, Crookes,
Sheffield, Hallam"
https://meetyournextmp.com/area/197-sheffield-hallam
It's Cleggs own fault, but it makes me squirm...The silly man.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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citizenJA
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by citizenJA »

SpinningHugo wrote:
rearofthestore wrote:
frightful_oik wrote: Lib Dems: 11%.
No.
Appears to be an outfit that uses telephone polling and telephone polls have tended to favour the Cons.
They are online pollsters.

As this is their first poll, we have no idea about them.

Pattern of journals not getting the results they want from inhouse pollsters continues. May2015 is the New Statesman.
From their website:
BMG is one of the largest market research agencies in the UK.
Typically you could be contacted by BMG using one of the following methods. By:-

Telephone from our call centre based in Birmingham
Face to face household visit by our trained research team
Post – paper surveys
Online – email or web based survey
Focus groups

http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/have-you-b ... ted-by-us/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
ohsocynical
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

rearofthestore wrote:
frightful_oik wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote: Are this lot any good?
Lib Dems: 11%.
No.
Appears to be an outfit that uses telephone polling and telephone polls have tended to favour the Cons.
It might be because there are fewer and fewer youngsters with a land line. It's only old farts like me that hate mobiles and cling to the old ways.

So, do they swallow the extra expense of ringing mobile numbers? Or is is land lines only?
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by rearofthestore »

pk1 wrote:Sheffield Hallam:
Labour way ahead of Clegg before adjustment
Table 2
Q.2 If there was a general election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
Base: All respondents
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by Spacedone »

There's a Comres Lab-Con marginal poll coming at 5pm. After the mess they made of the UKIP one it'll be interesting to see if they've actually managed to pick marginal seats for this one...
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by pk1 »

They did the data gathering for that poll online,not by phone
Fieldwork Dates:
25th – 27th April 2015

Data Collection Method:
The fieldwork was conducted via an online panel. Invitations to participate were sent to members of the panel. Non
response from different demographic groups was taken into account during the fieldwork phase and post-fieldwork
adjustments.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/wp-content ... _1_Sum.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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citizenJA
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Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by citizenJA »

The lists (extended) give more information about their involvement with each sector. They work primarily in the private sector, I think, given the descriptions on each page.

http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/what-we-do ... te-sector/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/what-we-do ... overnment/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/what-we-do ... overnment/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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Willow904
Prime Minister
Posts: 7220
Joined: Thu 18 Sep, 2014 2:40 pm

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by Willow904 »

Spacedone wrote:Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 12 mins12 minutes ago
Before turnout weighting and don't know re-allocation in @LordAshcroft Swindon S poll LAB was 2% ahead
The whole election is just too close to predict. Margin of error is too big for polls to give us a definitive prediction unless one party is clearly well ahead. If there wasn't so much riding on it, election night would be fascinating. As it is, it's a bit nail-biting, isn't it?
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
StephenDolan
First Secretary of State
Posts: 3725
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 10:15 pm

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by StephenDolan »

The Sheffield Hallam poll, 18-24yo

Unweighted 34
Weighted 125!
ohsocynical
Prime Minister
Posts: 10937
Joined: Mon 25 Aug, 2014 9:10 pm

Re: Wednesday 29th April 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

ephemerid wrote:
seeingclearly wrote:I've seen a fair few posts saying we haven't seen a politician like this for a long time.
Good.

It's about time - some of us have been saying he has the makings of a ( possibly great, in time) statesman.

Nice to see a few more people finally catching on.....
I've had that feeling about him from the get go. He's not just a politician who happens to be PM, he's going down in the history books as a Statesman. I'm glad I've lived long enough to see another Labour 'great' emerge.

I can't remember both names but one of his MPs said he was a cross between another famous Statesman and Harold Wilson...

I remember my dad saying about Wilson that he was a cunning, clever politician.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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