Forum rules Welcome to FTN. New posters are welcome to join the conversation. You can follow us on Twitter @FlythenestHaven You are responsible for the content you post. This is a public forum. Treat it as if you are speaking in a crowded room. Site admin and Moderators are volunteers who will respond as quickly as they are able to when made aware of any complaints. Please do not post copyrighted material without the original authors permission.
ErnstRemarx wrote:If the Scots do go, and that's looking borderline likely, I suspect that several things will happen in the first few months following the vote.
1. The rUK economy will have another dip because of the result and the flight from sterling. This will be offset over time as companies start to relocate core business from Scotland down to England, but will not wholly offset it. The uncertainty in trade will hit rUK trade figures.
2. Scottish business will see a more significant downturn in business amplified by the result of the above and the slow but sure closing and narrowing of markets. Again, market forces will prevail here and Salmond's charm, such as it is, will be of no use.
3. The EU will pronounce a little more clearly on Scottish membership. My guess is that they'll say yes, but subject to the usual rules for admittance. There will be no fast tracking, and I'm pretty sure the rUK government will, for once, use tact and maximum influence to ensure this.
4. Investment in Scottish business will slow considerably, but won't stop. Asset flight from Scotland will begin to pick up.
5. The political fallout will begin. Currency union will be finally and irrevocably put away as unworkable and unsupportable - as it always was. Salmond's team will go for sterlingisation. Possibly the worst choice they could possibly make.
6. rUK regions will start to question seriously why Scotland could be offered devo max, and yet nothing is being offered to them. Expect the rumbling to increase and become an electoral issue for May 2015.
That's what I predict, he said, dropping his crystal ball on his foot. Anyone else?
& Temulkar, in response to Ernst's predictions last night, thinks
''Cameron is forced to resign and the LD's pull out of coalition, the rump government loses a vote of no confidence and Parliament is dissolved forcing a November election.
Miliband wins a landslide with a few greens, few libs and a broken tory party.
UKIP with a couple of MP's picks up a few splitters as well but the right is finished for a generation.''
Heard SNP minister Alex Neil using his own fear tactics on Radio 4 last night.
He said 'the Tories are leading in the polls this weekend'.
Have checked and there was one Ipsos Mori last week which gave the Tories a 1 point lead, none of the pollsters seemed to get excited about it.
Other polls this weekend gave Labour a 2 point lead [YouGov/Sun Times], a 4 point lead [Daily Mail], & an 8 point lead [Opinium/Observer].
So Alex Neil is wrong to say the Tories are leading in the polls, when it was only one poll out of many.
The BBC presenter did not correct him, or ask him to clarify just how many polls showed the Tories in the lead, thereby leaving any uninformed listeners to believe the Tories are romping ahead of Labour.
Will the anti-BBC Yes demonstrators be waving placards about that ?
Probably the wrong place, unsure of correct one, so please move if necessary but:
Did anyone notice Google's acquisition of Lift Labs who make an electronic spoon that helps people with Parkinson's to eat by making small movements to compensate for tremors? Sounds brilliant to me, not just for Parkinson's but for anything that causes tremors or unsteady hand. And they've got a fork, a soup-spoon, and a key-holder planned.
Morning all. I went missing after my return on Saturday night - 24 hour stomach bug which saw me between bedroom and bathroom. First food seems to be OK...
It'd be nice when the vote's over so we can get back to normal. I'm sure there are lots of stories that have gone missing over past couple of weeks which should have been more heavily publicized.
If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.
letsskiptotheleft wrote:Wales raises 18 billion in taxes and spend 34
They're hardly unique in spending more than they raise (certainly not in this Parliament, anyway) but that's quite a differential!
No it's hardly unique, but there's a little of hyperbole about stirrings of Welsh nationalism, part generated by the media trying to get another angle on things, and support today for separation stands at a whopping 17%, once it dies down in Scotland, either way you can expect a few points off that.
RobertSnozers wrote:In response to predictions above, my brother in law lives in Spain and, spite what the SNP says, Spain is extremely concerned, and Catalonia is watching the result very closely. I can't imagine Spain is going to want to go through the increasingly bitter, polarised 'debate' we've had in this country so it would not surprise me in the least if Spain decided to veto fast track EU membership for Scotland on this basis. Then you have the Northern League in Italy and the Basque separatists, all of whom will take heart at a Scottish 'yes' vote. Does the EU want this kind of disruption I wonder?
There's another fly in the ointment that the SNP is ignoring, and that's the Euro. Since the Euro started, all new EU members have been expected to join it, but there's no question that Scotland could be allowed to join the Euro because it doesn't remotely meet the criteria - so in theory that should bar it from EU membership as well.
A Yes vote really would be stepping off a cliff and hoping there's a feather bed at the bottom...
The EU has made it clear that Scotland would have to reapply for membership and mentions no fast-tracking. The letter from Viviane Reding to the Scottish Parliament is here: http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/S4_Eu ... 4__pdf.pdf
letsskiptotheleft wrote:Wales raises 18 billion in taxes and spend 34
They're hardly unique in spending more than they raise (certainly not in this Parliament, anyway) but that's quite a differential!
No it's hardly unique, but there's a little of hyperbole about stirrings of Welsh nationalism, part generated by the media trying to get another angle on things, and support today for separation stands at a whopping 17%, once it dies down in Scotland, either way you can expect a few points off that.
I doubt there's a country in the world that doesn't have the same differentials between different regions - it'd be quite amazing if there was a country where every region contributed in the same way.
If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.
LadyCentauria wrote:Probably the wrong place, unsure of correct one, so please move if necessary but:
Did anyone notice Google's acquisition of Lift Labs who make an electronic spoon that helps people with Parkinson's to eat by making small movements to compensate for tremors? Sounds brilliant to me, not just for Parkinson's but for anything that causes tremors or unsteady hand. And they've got a fork, a soup-spoon, and a key-holder planned.
yahyah wrote:Heard SNP minister Alex Neil using his own fear tactics on Radio 4 last night.
He said 'the Tories are leading in the polls this weekend'.
Have checked and there was one Ipsos Mori last week which gave the Tories a 1 point lead, none of the pollsters seemed to get excited about it.
Other polls this weekend gave Labour a 2 point lead [YouGov/Sun Times], a 4 point lead [Daily Mail], & an 8 point lead [Opinium/Observer].
So Alex Neil is wrong to say the Tories are leading in the polls, when it was only one poll out of many.
The BBC presenter did not correct him, or ask him to clarify just how many polls showed the Tories in the lead, thereby leaving any uninformed listeners to believe the Tories are romping ahead of Labour.
Will the anti-BBC Yes demonstrators be waving placards about that ?
YouGov was actually 3 points, but yeah such mendacity should not go unchallenged - but does
ErnstRemarx wrote:If the Scots do go, and that's looking borderline likely, I suspect that several things will happen in the first few months following the vote.
1. The rUK economy will have another dip because of the result and the flight from sterling. This will be offset over time as companies start to relocate core business from Scotland down to England, but will not wholly offset it. The uncertainty in trade will hit rUK trade figures.
2. Scottish business will see a more significant downturn in business amplified by the result of the above and the slow but sure closing and narrowing of markets. Again, market forces will prevail here and Salmond's charm, such as it is, will be of no use.
3. The EU will pronounce a little more clearly on Scottish membership. My guess is that they'll say yes, but subject to the usual rules for admittance. There will be no fast tracking, and I'm pretty sure the rUK government will, for once, use tact and maximum influence to ensure this.
4. Investment in Scottish business will slow considerably, but won't stop. Asset flight from Scotland will begin to pick up.
5. The political fallout will begin. Currency union will be finally and irrevocably put away as unworkable and unsupportable - as it always was. Salmond's team will go for sterlingisation. Possibly the worst choice they could possibly make.
6. rUK regions will start to question seriously why Scotland could be offered devo max, and yet nothing is being offered to them. Expect the rumbling to increase and become an electoral issue for May 2015.
That's what I predict, he said, dropping his crystal ball on his foot. Anyone else?
Prediction 3:
The EU have already pronounced clearly - I won't repeat the link I put in a post (above) as it screwed up the page width! I don't know how other countries with seperatist problems will react, but I suspect that a Scottish independence day would have to be put on hold, pending EU admission. If it wasn't, the ramifications would be horrendous - no EU subsidies, border controls, no tendering for EU contracts etc. Any business with a significant EU (including rUK) customer base would be off like a shot.
I suppose there could be some sort of interim agreement - but I wouldn't hold my breath.
Whilst I have no idea where Miriam O’Reilly comes from and Byron Taylor seems to be from Basildon, the other two are (to me) "local" both being from greater Manchester.
Eric_WLothian wrote:
Of course, Ms Reding is bluffing and/or bullying
Not everyone in favour of independence believes that. It's to be noted however that the terms regarding membership are determined after acceptance of the application. As it's generally acknowledged by those not foaming at the mouth, Salmond's timetable from "Yes" to an independent Scotland is extremely optimistic. It's not outside of the realm of possibility that Scotland's potential entry into the EU could marry with the date of independence (cue UKIP "how independent are you?")
Of course, Spain, France and Italy are all concerned about their own secessionist areas. Whether this would play in Scotland's favour or agin with regard to entry would have to be seen. A protracted, potentially punative, negotiation might well put those potential states off, however the EU recognises that these states-in-potentia would have legitimate calls for inclusion and may wish to "bend" slightly to incorporate those areas which may not fulfil all current criteria. The "parent" countries might wish to block Scotland's entry, however that could blow up in their faces with regards to their restless regions claiming solidarity with a supressed Scotland.
It's the European political equivalent of a Michael Bay movie. Pass the popcorn!
I note that Vivienne Westwood (London resident, born in Derbyshire) has urged Scots to vote YES on Thursday because she says
Speaking during her Red label 2015 show at London Fashion Week, she said she was ''very unpatriotic about England because it is being completely ruined''.
rearofthestore wrote:I note that Vivienne Westwood (London resident, born in Derbyshire) has urged Scots to vote YES on Thursday because she says
Speaking during her Red label 2015 show at London Fashion Week, she said she was ''very unpatriotic about England because it is being completely ruined''.
On the Scotland EU stuff. Ms Reding does not bluff. She is the law, and she has a track record of facing down political posturing even from member states like Germany.
On the google stuff, they are already the second biggest threat to freedom on the planet (behind the security services). This has been true for about the last 5-6 years. Adding a clever spoon doesn't make this much worse.
Whilst I have no idea where Miriam O’Reilly comes from and Byron Taylor seems to be from Basildon, the other two are (to me) "local" both being from greater Manchester.
Biogs of O'Reilly say she was born in Ireland but her farming family moved here in the 50's.
Whilst I have no idea where Miriam O’Reilly comes from and Byron Taylor seems to be from Basildon, the other two are (to me) "local" both being from greater Manchester.
Biogs of O'Reilly say she was born in Ireland but her farming family moved here in the 50's.
It'll be a parachute job - O'Reilly in other words. The best candidate there is is the asian chap, whom I've heard speak publicly. He should get it, all things being equal.
TechnicalEphemera wrote:On the Scotland EU stuff. Ms Reding does not bluff. She is the law, and she has a track record of facing down political posturing even from member states like Germany.
On the google stuff, they are already the second biggest threat to freedom on the planet (behind the security services). This has been true for about the last 5-6 years. Adding a clever spoon doesn't make this much worse.
No but spoons maybe make the threat seem more real for some.
Alex Braithwaite @labour52rose 2m
Queen's radical plan for voters to think before voting ruled 'unconstitutional' http://wp.me/p1U04a-80O" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; via @ThomasPride
Eric_WLothian wrote:
Of course, Ms Reding is bluffing and/or bullying
Not everyone in favour of independence believes that. It's to be noted however that the terms regarding membership are determined after acceptance of the application. As it's generally acknowledged by those not foaming at the mouth, Salmond's timetable from "Yes" to an independent Scotland is extremely optimistic. It's not outside of the realm of possibility that Scotland's potential entry into the EU could marry with the date of independence (cue UKIP "how independent are you?")
Of course, Spain, France and Italy are all concerned about their own secessionist areas. Whether this would play in Scotland's favour or agin with regard to entry would have to be seen. A protracted, potentially punative, negotiation might well put those potential states off, however the EU recognises that these states-in-potentia would have legitimate calls for inclusion and may wish to "bend" slightly to incorporate those areas which may not fulfil all current criteria. The "parent" countries might wish to block Scotland's entry, however that could blow up in their faces with regards to their restless regions claiming solidarity with a supressed Scotland.
It's the European political equivalent of a Michael Bay movie. Pass the popcorn!
Actually, I think Scotland starts off in a worse negotiating position than most other potential separatist states. Most (if not all) of them already use the euro (although they would presumably have to meet the criteria for continuing to use it officially) and they don't have the opt-outs that the UK has.
Without its own central bank and currency, Scotland has a big disadvantage. I would expect the standard entry conditions to be imposed - including VAT on pretty much everything. The one concession I think we might get is not signing up to Schengen - which I assume would be supported by rUK.
We shall see (maybe) how long negotiations take but given the GE next year, I don't see the rUK government having the same priorities as Scotland.
Things I've learned today, courtesy of our Nationalist pals.
1. There are no No supporters willing to go out and rally, all the Nos are being shipped in from England and Wales.
2. The Yes vote is already lost because MI5 have fixed it.
3. When Yes wins Scotland will be flooded with MI5 agents working to destabilise it.
4. Nick Robinson is a New Labour-ite.
5. Labour is finished.
If Labour are finished, how come latest Holyrood voting intentions have Labour at 35% (2% up since the last poll & 4% up on 2011)
SNP on 39% (down 1% since the last poll and down 6% since 2011)
Last edited by yahyah on Mon 15 Sep, 2014 2:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
AnatolyKasparov wrote:The "let's form a feminist political party like in Sweden" piece in the Graun is good for a laugh, if not much else
I’m taking it as an opportunity to point up that only one party has made any progress wrt to women elected to Parliament and that the same party when in govt enacted the necessary legislation to make it possible.
LadyCentauria wrote:Probably the wrong place, unsure of correct one, so please move if necessary but:
Did anyone notice Google's acquisition of Lift Labs who make an electronic spoon that helps people with Parkinson's to eat by making small movements to compensate for tremors? Sounds brilliant to me, not just for Parkinson's but for anything that causes tremors or unsteady hand. And they've got a fork, a soup-spoon, and a key-holder planned.
Edit to add: It's very expensive (near three hundred dollars) at the mo, but with scale that'd have to come down.
Wow! what an incredible invention! But how scary are google becoming? They are creeping into every aspect of our lives.... (cue scary music)
Sergei Brins mother has Parkinson's. His family have put a lot of money into free genetic testing for Parkinson's people, as well as research. It can be familial, which is what sparked his interest, no doubt the constant stream of predictions of a 'cure within five years' has had some influence. To my knowledge they've been saying it for around 20-25 years, though the internet seems to have increased the intensity. My grandmother had it, and so do I. It's likely not to have one cause, so one cure is unlikely, and tbh looks no nearer today than years ago. I guess he wants to avoid the brain pacemaker thingy that's the best practice treatment of choice and costs a couple of hundred thou, and no guarantees. I would too, even with his dosh. Still that spoon is well within his price range. If the price doesn't come down or they really do find a cure it could be a lemon.
After arguing that Salmond is a triumph of spin over facts (possibly true, but kettles & pots eh?) she seems to finish by implying, through implicit reference to the very odd subtitle, that ISIS (sic.) and Vladimir Putin will be pleased if Scotland votes for independence.
letsskiptotheleft wrote:Ashcroft National Polls have Labour and Tories tied at 33% apiece, more ammo for the nats maybe?
Keep that under our hats shall we
Was astonished to see a Cif poster, who usually writes eminently sensibly and calmly [am always envious of how he manages it] banging the drum for Yes by using the term 'sheeple'.
That's a term usually used by people who believe in lizard tailed Masonic Zionist Satanist plots.
It's extraordinary. First Tea & Choc, then this.
Are Cif accounts being hijacked
letsskiptotheleft wrote:Ashcroft National Polls have Labour and Tories tied at 33% apiece, more ammo for the nats maybe?
Keep that under our hats shall we
Was astonished to see a Cif poster, who usually writes eminently sensibly and calmly [am always envious of how he manages it] banging the drum for Yes by using the term 'sheeple'.
That's a term usually used by people who believe in lizard tailed Masonic Zionist Satanist plots.
It's extraordinary. First Tea & Choc, then this.
Are Cif accounts being hijacked
It does make you think doesn't it, I can't for the best part read btl over there, it's endless reams of the same stuff being repeated, saying that I am finding it hard to see that Dave can survive a Yes vote, not that I want it to come to that.. Want him beaten next May, with Scottish votes included.
Whilst I have no idea where Miriam O’Reilly comes from and Byron Taylor seems to be from Basildon, the other two are (to me) "local" both being from greater Manchester.
Biogs of O'Reilly say she was born in Ireland but her farming family moved here in the 50's.
Whilst I have no idea where Miriam O’Reilly comes from and Byron Taylor seems to be from Basildon, the other two are (to me) "local" both being from greater Manchester.
Biogs of O'Reilly say she was born in Ireland but her farming family moved here in the 50's.
It'll be a parachute job - O'Reilly in other words. The best candidate there is is the asian chap, whom I've heard speak publicly. He should get it, all things being equal.
Ya think?
She's not had a particularly high profile so far.
My money is on Kailash Chand - although that could be a bit of a gift for UKIP
If Liz McInnes gets it we will have nothing but "Unite run the Labour party" yacking. (No offence to her meant there...)
Downing Street have said that David Cameron will spend the day of the referendum working in Number 10. (Andrew Sparrow, Guardian)
Certainly, then, the 18th September 2014 will be a day to remember. He'll need another pointing holiday to recover from the strain of it all.
Nah, he'll call a COBRA then come and face the cameras doing his serious statesman thing.
Believe it or not, he thinks it would look better to be on the referendum than the mortal threat from ISL.
Per the DT:
Sources told the Telegraph that Mr Cameron was resisting pressure to recall Parliament this week and will wait until after the Scottish referendum on Thursday to pitch for air strikes.
Pathetic. PR man bollocks.
The irony of course is that lots of NO voters would rather he was Ibiza having it large than involving himself with Scotland.
letsskiptotheleft wrote:
It does make you think doesn't it, I can't for the best part read btl over there, it's endless reams of the same stuff being repeated, saying that I am finding it hard to see that Dave can survive a Yes vote, not that I want it to come to that.. Want him beaten next May, with Scottish votes included.
It does make me wonder what happens if the scenario is Yes to independence and Labour win in 2015 but with a majority of fewer than the number of Scottish seats.
Another election in 2016 or when independence actually takes place?
If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.
letsskiptotheleft wrote:
It does make you think doesn't it, I can't for the best part read btl over there, it's endless reams of the same stuff being repeated, saying that I am finding it hard to see that Dave can survive a Yes vote, not that I want it to come to that.. Want him beaten next May, with Scottish votes included.
It does make me wonder what happens if the scenario is Yes to independence and Labour win in 2015 but with a majority of fewer than the number of Scottish seats.
Another election in 2016 or when independence actually takes place?
Either another election when independence takes place, or a coalition.
Whilst I have no idea where Miriam O’Reilly comes from and Byron Taylor seems to be from Basildon, the other two are (to me) "local" both being from greater Manchester.
Biogs of O'Reilly say she was born in Ireland but her farming family moved here in the 50's.
It'll be a parachute job - O'Reilly in other words. The best candidate there is is the asian chap, whom I've heard speak publicly. He should get it, all things being equal.
I don't think that's fair on her, though she isn't my favourite candidate. As far as I can tell she's applied from outside, like anyone else.
Parachuting is more with all women shortlists, or (especially) when there are very late retirements, or a seat is found for a Tory defector.
RobertSnozers wrote:In response to predictions above, my brother in law lives in Spain and, spite what the SNP says, Spain is extremely concerned, and Catalonia is watching the result very closely. I can't imagine Spain is going to want to go through the increasingly bitter, polarised 'debate' we've had in this country so it would not surprise me in the least if Spain decided to veto fast track EU membership for Scotland on this basis. Then you have the Northern League in Italy and the Basque separatists, all of whom will take heart at a Scottish 'yes' vote. Does the EU want this kind of disruption I wonder?
There's another fly in the ointment that the SNP is ignoring, and that's the Euro. Since the Euro started, all new EU members have been expected to join it, but there's no question that Scotland could be allowed to join the Euro because it doesn't remotely meet the criteria - so in theory that should bar it from EU membership as well.
A Yes vote really would be stepping off a cliff and hoping there's a feather bed at the bottom...
The EU has made it clear that Scotland would have to reapply for membership and mentions no fast-tracking. The letter from Viviane Reding to the Scottish Parliament is here: http://www.scottish.parliament.uk/S4_Eu ... 4__pdf.pdf
Of course, Ms Reding is bluffing and/or bullying
She's not really the last word on anything though- that's the Council of Ministers.
If the EU is flagging, there might well be an imperative to add a new, rich member, and some kind of deal would be done.
letsskiptotheleft wrote:Ashcroft National Polls have Labour and Tories tied at 33% apiece, more ammo for the nats maybe?
And yet "since early June the Conservatives have been within the margin of error of 30%, and Labour within the margin of error of 34% – a national advantage for Labour that reflects the average of all published polls".
If Scotland vote Yes I wonder how much of a bump this'll give to UKIP from traditional Conservative voters annoyed at the loss of the Union.
Another wondering. How would Scottish independence impact upon how changes in GDP (and other UK economic / government statistics) are reported?
Simon Wren-Lewis: Cameron's Wikipedia Entry 2100. Hope his political predictions are worse than his economic ones.
Prime Minister of UK (including Scotland until 2014) from 2010 to 2017. Widely seen as the catalyst behind the renewed decline of the UK, after a brief respite in the 30 years previously (see entries for Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown). On becoming Prime Minister in 2010, embarked on a fiscal austerity programme which delayed a recovery from the Great Recession until 2013, accelerated the privatisation of public services and encouraged social hostility to immigration and the poor.
This proved to be a decisive factor in Scotland narrowly voting Yes to independence in 2014. (The other was his decision not to allow a third option for greater devolution.) His administration was then bogged down in negotiations with Scotland for the next two years, which caused increasing bitterness between the two countries. In the UK election of 2015 the SNP captured many Scottish Labour seats, but refused to form a coalition government with Labour, allowing Cameron to continue to lead a minority government with tacit support from the LibDems and (initially) UKIP.
Most analysts naturally point to his promise of a referendum on EU membership as his biggest mistake. In the short term this meant that UKIP’s success in the 2015 election was as much at the expense of Labour as his own party. But his decision to recommend voting Yes to continued membership in the EU referendum in 2017 led to an attempt to unseat him as leader which narrowly failed (see entry on Boris Johnson), and then large scale defections of MPs from his party to UKIP. Campaigning under the slogan ‘If Scotland can do it, so can we’, and with the support of large sections of the press, UKIP leader Nigel Farage achieved a very narrow majority to leave the EU, forcing Cameron to resign. Some argue that the Scottish independence decision was critical here, as he would have won the referendum vote if Scotland had stayed part of the UK. A few argue that the decision to break up the BBC and allow partisan broadcasting, and in particular the rebranding of ITV into FOX-UK, was a more important factor in losing the EU vote.
There is some dispute as to how much Cameron himself is to blame for these events, or how much was the work of his Chancellor (and his successor as Prime Minister) George Osborne. There also remains some controversy over whether the inability of the economy to make up the ground it lost during the recession was due to the initial austerity plan, renewed austerity after 2015, controls on immigration or the uncertainty created by the referendum itself and subsequent EU exit.
It is a great irony that the only leader of this period whose current reputation is lower than Cameron’s is his opponent in the Scottish independence debate Alex Salmond, now widely known in Scotland as the Great Deceiver. Scotland’s own economic decline following independence was far greater, following a collapse in oil prices and the loss in UK markets when Scotland joined the EU.
letsskiptotheleft wrote:Wales raises 18 billion in taxes and spend 34
They're hardly unique in spending more than they raise (certainly not in this Parliament, anyway) but that's quite a differential!
No it's hardly unique, but there's a little of hyperbole about stirrings of Welsh nationalism, part generated by the media trying to get another angle on things, and support today for separation stands at a whopping 17%, once it dies down in Scotland, either way you can expect a few points off that.
(I'm bit slow today)
