Wednesday 6th May 2015

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 06 May, 2015 4:56 pm

The election has finally arrived! I can remember the relief when we could finally say, 'it's next year.'

And who could have foreseen it going the way it has. Ed's done so well.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:00 pm

Evening everyone

So everyone, pollsters and election forecasters, are predicting the Tories as biggest party with some even suggesting a majority, not even obtained in 2010!

Can someone explains what gives?

I can possibly see a narrow seat margin because of the SNP effect but am not at all convinced that the polls are showing that - but surely a majority is a non-starter?

What are these guys drinking?

seeingclearly · Post by **seeingclearly** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:03 pm

The duck is back in town, the gorilla gone. Could this be an omen? (I never could see it before.)

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:04 pm

StephenDolan wrote:

Something to bear in mind when you read the pollsters predictions for tomorrow.

Thank you for that, I may quote it again on every page.
Not changing my signature.

seeingclearly · Post by **seeingclearly** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:05 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:Evening everyone

So everyone, pollsters and election forecasters, are predicting the Tories as biggest party with some even suggesting a majority, not even obtained in 2010!

Can someone explains what gives?

I can possibly see a narrow seat margin because of the SNP effect but am not at all convinced that the polls are showing that - but surely a majority is a non-starter?

What are these guys drinking?

Does it affect the betting?

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:09 pm

seeingclearly wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:Evening everyone

So everyone, pollsters and election forecasters, are predicting the Tories as biggest party with some even suggesting a majority, not even obtained in 2010!

Can someone explains what gives?

I can possibly see a narrow seat margin because of the SNP effect but am not at all convinced that the polls are showing that - but surely a majority is a non-starter?

What are these guys drinking?
Does it affect the betting?

I think you may be confused, that is the 2010 predictions.

Nobody this time is predicting a majority, most are predicting Tories being the largest party. Incidentally ICM had Labour well ahead prior to adjustment but are now announcing preliminary results of a dead heat.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:09 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:Evening everyone

So everyone, pollsters and election forecasters, are predicting the Tories as biggest party with some even suggesting a majority, not even obtained in 2010!

Can someone explains what gives?

I can possibly see a narrow seat margin because of the SNP effect but am not at all convinced that the polls are showing that - but surely a majority is a non-starter?

What are these guys drinking?

Alan Travis ‏@alantravis40 5 mins5 minutes ago
Guardian/ICM eve of election poll

Con 35% (nc),
Lab 35% (+3),
Ukip 11% (-2),
LD 9%(nc), Green
3% (-2%)

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:11 pm

ohsocynical wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:Evening everyone

So everyone, pollsters and election forecasters, are predicting the Tories as biggest party with some even suggesting a majority, not even obtained in 2010!

Can someone explains what gives?

I can possibly see a narrow seat margin because of the SNP effect but am not at all convinced that the polls are showing that - but surely a majority is a non-starter?

What are these guys drinking?

Alan Travis ‏@alantravis40 5 mins5 minutes ago
Guardian/ICM eve of election poll

Con 35% (nc),
Lab 35% (+3),
Ukip 11% (-2),
LD 9%(nc), Green
3% (-2%)

that is a very good poll.
I'll take that at this point.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:11 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:Evening everyone

So everyone, pollsters and election forecasters, are predicting the Tories as biggest party with some even suggesting a majority, not even obtained in 2010!

Can someone explains what gives?

I can possibly see a narrow seat margin because of the SNP effect but am not at all convinced that the polls are showing that - but surely a majority is a non-starter?

What are these guys drinking?

*puts tin hat on....
One reason for talking up a really close call is so to many questions won't be asked when the tory's "win" - fiddling on the roof and all that.
*takes tin hat off.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:11 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
seeingclearly wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:Evening everyone

So everyone, pollsters and election forecasters, are predicting the Tories as biggest party with some even suggesting a majority, not even obtained in 2010!

Can someone explains what gives?

I can possibly see a narrow seat margin because of the SNP effect but am not at all convinced that the polls are showing that - but surely a majority is a non-starter?

What are these guys drinking?
Does it affect the betting?
I think you may be confused, that is the 2010 predictions.

Nobody this time is predicting a majority, most are predicting Tories being the largest party. Incidentally ICM had Labour well ahead prior to adjustment but are now announcing preliminary results of a dead heat.

Stupid me - teach me to read more carefully......that makes me more hopeful.

There does seem to be a consensus around the Tories being the biggest party though and I am not really convinced by that

I hope we have a reverse '92!

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:13 pm

I think it may be time to give you the Bella Index - surely the most scientific of our in house polls.

Today she walked at perfect heel on my left side all the way to our gate. Nothing more need be said.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:13 pm

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 9 mins9 minutes ago

The ICM 3% increase for LAB looks good for EdM and worrying for CON. Tonight's poll is first from firm since Jan that CON not ahead

Ooooh-er. Settle down.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:14 pm

SpinningHugo wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:Evening everyone

So everyone, pollsters and election forecasters, are predicting the Tories as biggest party with some even suggesting a majority, not even obtained in 2010!

Can someone explains what gives?

I can possibly see a narrow seat margin because of the SNP effect but am not at all convinced that the polls are showing that - but surely a majority is a non-starter?

What are these guys drinking?

Alan Travis ‏@alantravis40 5 mins5 minutes ago
Guardian/ICM eve of election poll

Con 35% (nc),
Lab 35% (+3),
Ukip 11% (-2),
LD 9%(nc), Green
3% (-2%)
that is a very good poll.
I'll take that at this point.

So will I.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:16 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:I think it may be time to give you the Bella Index - surely the most scientific of our in house polls.

Today she walked at perfect heel on my left side all the way to our gate. Nothing more need be said.

Amazing what a bit of love and kindness can achieve isn't it.

Yesterday our son had to have his sixteen year old staffie put down...She was a resue dog. Goodness knows what her fate would have been if our son hadn't fallen in love with her.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:19 pm

Jack Dromey ‏@JackDromeyMP 35m35 minutes ago
Just had my fourth pleading e-mail from @David_Cameron asking for my support for his 'well-oiled' machine. Oily, perhaps. 'Well-oiled'? No

You really would have thought they would have fixed that error by now - repeatedly emailing opposition MPs asking for their help and money is beyond ridiculous.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:21 pm

seeingclearly wrote:The duck is back in town, the gorilla gone. Could this be an omen? (I never could see it before.)

#

It's a lovely duck, isn't it? Eider feeling that things would swing towards the duck . . .

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:22 pm

ohsocynical wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:I think it may be time to give you the Bella Index - surely the most scientific of our in house polls.

Today she walked at perfect heel on my left side all the way to our gate. Nothing more need be said.
Amazing what a bit of love and kindness can achieve isn't it.

Yesterday our son had to have his sixteen year old staffie put down...She was a resue dog. Goodness knows what her fate would have been if our son hadn't fallen in love with her.

That's so sad Ohso. Sorry if this was a badly timed post - and please send him my commiserations and tell him to get another rescue doggy pal when he feels able to - they repay your love in bundles.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:22 pm

That ICM poll should give the ground teams real encouragement. See below.

But it is ICM’s headline prediction that has been the more intensely anticipated set of numbers, because its final survey has got closer than the rest of the polling pack to the final result in three of the last four general elections. In the raw data, Labour is actually ahead – by 37% to the Conservatives’ 33%. But this is misleading, because Labour leaners are less committed to turning out.

A strikingly high 73% of all voters now say they will definitely cast a ballot, suggesting that the closely-fought fight may push turnout up on the 65% level of 2010. But turnout rises further to 85% among Conservatives, and to 79% for Labour supporters. Adjust for this differential, and Labour’s initial advantage shrinks to a single point – 35% against the Tories’ 34%.

ICM then applies its final adjustment – allocating a chunk of those voters who won’t reveal their 2015 plans back to the party they say they backed last time, something which experience suggests that many of them will do.

This final tweak pulls the Conservatives up to draw level with Labour, and comes close to pushing the Tories into the lead. “These results are on such a knife edge”, explains Boon, “that assuming that just one or two extra former Conservative or Lib Dem voters will ‘go home’ on Thursday could have dragged Labour down to 34%, and given the Tories the narrowest of leads.”

Now if Labour knows where its vote is and can push hard to get it out, so you over perform ICM assumptions there are up to 3 percentage points to be had. That would be majority territory.

Incidentally this is a phone poll being ICM - convergence has happened.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:23 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:
Jack Dromey ‏@JackDromeyMP 35m35 minutes ago
Just had my fourth pleading e-mail from @David_Cameron asking for my support for his 'well-oiled' machine. Oily, perhaps. 'Well-oiled'? No
You really would have thought they would have fixed that error by now - repeatedly emailing opposition MPs asking for their help and money is beyond ridiculous.

Maybe it's being done by the same person who came up with 5,000 small-business owners.

gilsey · Post by **gilsey** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:35 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote: Now if Labour knows where its vote is and can push hard to get it out, so you over perform ICM assumptions there are up to 3 percentage points to be had. That would be majority territory.

That's exactly where I think the polls have got it wrong, I think Labour turnout could be high, certainly in the seats that matter.
I also believeTM that many Scots will change their minds in the privacy of the polling booth.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:43 pm

Low pay and high rent: is work really the route out of poverty in Tory Britain?
The big issue: Our series looking at key general election issues considers employment, with a trip to Iain Duncan Smith’s constituency, which – perhaps surprisingly – has the fifth highest proportion of low-paid workers in Britain
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... -chingford

Read this and you will wonder why anyone experiencing the kind of issues these people are talking about would ever - ever - vote Tory.

Two things stood out for me .... the guy who hasn't had a wage rise for four years and is struggling - but his main concern is to 'sort out the benefits system' because it's not right they're all going on holiday and buying big TVs. And later on the guy, a GP, who is saddened by how apathetic people seem to be, directing their anger at other groups in society rather than those in power who are actually responsible for the system not working for them.

The MSM really did work hard on behalf of the coalition over the last 5 years ... managed to hammer home the divisive message. And - oh joy of joys - I see Channel 4 have announced a new series of Benefits Street to start just after the election is over.

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:44 pm

RobertSnozers wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:Evening everyone

So everyone, pollsters and election forecasters, are predicting the Tories as biggest party with some even suggesting a majority, not even obtained in 2010!

Can someone explains what gives?

I can possibly see a narrow seat margin because of the SNP effect but am not at all convinced that the polls are showing that - but surely a majority is a non-starter?

What are these guys drinking?
I can't see how the Tories are going to achieve a majority under any circumstances. It would mean them not losing any to Labour or Ukip, and taking 23 seats off someone else. The maximum they're going to get from the LibDems is twelve, according to Lord Ashcroft, and the LibDem ability to hold on to seats against national polling indicates they won't get that many. If the Tories manage to win any off Labour it will surely be a tiny handful, and I don't know of any Lab-Tory marginals where there has been a swing to the Tories. Moreover, there were a good many seats with such tiny majorities that a minute swing would give it to Labour.

Moreover, the Tories seem to think they can't win any seats of Labour either, as some pretty close seats haven't had much attention other than some money chucked at billboards and mailouts. I'd say they were too worried about holding on to the seats they do have. It would mean all the polls were wrong and the Tories had actually gained at least another percentage point over where they were in 2010 despite Ukip eating into their votes and the loss of popularity from austerity and incompetence (admittedly not as much as you'd hope).

Given Scotland, the chance of any majority is zero.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:45 pm

RobertSnozers wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:Evening everyone

So everyone, pollsters and election forecasters, are predicting the Tories as biggest party with some even suggesting a majority, not even obtained in 2010!

Can someone explains what gives?

I can possibly see a narrow seat margin because of the SNP effect but am not at all convinced that the polls are showing that - but surely a majority is a non-starter?

What are these guys drinking?
I can't see how the Tories are going to achieve a majority under any circumstances. It would mean them not losing any to Labour or Ukip, and taking 23 seats off someone else. The maximum they're going to get from the LibDems is twelve, according to Lord Ashcroft, and the LibDem ability to hold on to seats against national polling indicates they won't get that many. If the Tories manage to win any off Labour it will surely be a tiny handful, and I don't know of any Lab-Tory marginals where there has been a swing to the Tories. Moreover, there were a good many seats with such tiny majorities that a minute swing would give it to Labour.

Moreover, the Tories seem to think they can't win any seats of Labour either, as some pretty close seats haven't had much attention other than some money chucked at billboards and mailouts. I'd say they were too worried about holding on to the seats they do have. It would mean all the polls were wrong and the Tories had actually gained at least another percentage point over where they were in 2010 despite Ukip eating into their votes and the loss of popularity from austerity and incompetence (admittedly not as much as you'd hope).

As we don't have a thanks button at the moment - here is my thank you for that post. I agree any talk of a Conservative majority seems to fly in the face of the actualite.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:46 pm

It's time to implement Levenson.

http://hackinginquiry.org/levesonnow/

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:48 pm

steve richards retweeted
Stephen Moss ‏@StephenMossGdn 20m20 minutes ago
Am assuming Sun, Telegraph, Mail and Times will have 'Ed Miliband – the Islamic State connection' tomorrow morning

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:55 pm

RobertSnozers wrote:
How does Scotland affect Tory chances of a majority?

Any chance for anyone.

Tory majority has always been far fetched.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 06 May, 2015 5:56 pm

Afternoon all, what have I missed.

Mr Yahyah's cleared his aortic aneurysm screening, a relief.

But a warning to you gents - the person who does the test can see your intestinal gas.
Can you imagine what David Cameron's screen pic would look like ?

Also, good to see the latest Wales polling, hope Plaid don't get much higher than that 13%.

My Green leaning neighbour tells me that Ceredigion polling show pretty neck & neck for Plaid & Lib Dems on 30 something each, Labour on 14% - which would be great as we only got 5.8% in 2010. UKIP only 7%, again that would be great as I feared they'd surge here, Tories 17%

I can't remember who she said had done the polling, not a name I recognised ? TNS or something like that ?

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 06 May, 2015 6:02 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:I think it may be time to give you the Bella Index - surely the most scientific of our in house polls.

Today she walked at perfect heel on my left side all the way to our gate. Nothing more need be said.
Amazing what a bit of love and kindness can achieve isn't it.

Yesterday our son had to have his sixteen year old staffie put down...She was a resue dog. Goodness knows what her fate would have been if our son hadn't fallen in love with her.
That's so sad Ohso. Sorry if this was a badly timed post - and please send him my commiserations and tell him to get another rescue doggy pal when he feels able to - they repay your love in bundles.

Not badly timed. Lovely to hear your newest dog is responding to your love and care. Candy was being used for breeding and then her owner went to prison.

She had a lovely life with our son. Enjoyed every minute of it.

He has two other rescue dogs.

Jester who is a sort of beagle/dacshaund/ jack russell, type dog, was one of a litter that was dumped outside a dog rescue place. They got him when Candy reached twelve thinking they wouldn't have her for much longer. He's dopey.

Jazz a labrador/ staffie at six months had been passed from pillar to post and was being kicked by the boyfriend of one of the helpers at the riding school our fiery daughter in law goes to on Sundays.
She told them she was taking the dog and that was that. They've had her for a year now and she's turning into a lovely dog. She still isn't quite sure about men, but our son has persevered with her, and she's coming out of it. She's a chewer too!

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 06 May, 2015 6:04 pm

Mark Ferguson @Markfergusonuk · 3h 3 hours ago
British people. I have just seen #JeSuisEd and you are amazing

It is very heartening how social media has enabled these great fight backs. It's this - more than Leveson - that gives me faith that things can change.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 06 May, 2015 6:07 pm

PETER OBORNE: "THIS COULD BE THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION OF MY LIFETIME"

http://www.bigissue.com/features/5177/p ... y-lifetime

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 06 May, 2015 6:09 pm

@ yahyah

Very glad to hear Mr Yahyah got the all clear.

Hope you can relax and chill a bit now. It's out of our control ... over to the British public.

My own nerves have been dealt with by sowing and transplanting ridiculous numbers of tomato and veggie plants. I'm placing faith in not having Cameron back as PM - i.e. we won't have to be straight back out in the fields opposing another badger cull so I will have enough time to make roasted tomato sauce and freeze it. We're going to drown under tomatoes if not.

Editing to add: That does sound like a very good percentage for Labour in Ceredigion - hope it's true.

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Wed 06 May, 2015 6:09 pm

@RR2, Bella is infinitely more sensible, and indeed credible, than the majority of the pundits.

@RobertSnozers, the Tories have not got a majority since 1992. That won't be changing this year.

@Gilsey, I agree, you shouldn't change it. Maybe we are both just optimists, but what the hey.

@Yahyah, great news.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 06 May, 2015 6:12 pm

rebeccariots2 wrote:
steve richards retweeted
Stephen Moss ‏@StephenMossGdn 20m20 minutes ago
Am assuming Sun, Telegraph, Mail and Times will have 'Ed Miliband – the Islamic State connection' tomorrow morning

In a way I hope they do, since it's evidently counter-productive from their point of view. The more outrageous and unsubtle the better.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 06 May, 2015 6:21 pm

London SE1
‏@se1
BREAKING NEWS - YouGov update their 'nowcast' for Bermondsey & Old Southwark giving clearer advantage to @coyleneil: https://yougov.co.uk/#/constituency/24/nowcast/ …

Can anyone check that? Another cheerer upper if so.

Editing to add: I've checked and it does now say 'Leaning Labour' - last updated 6 May.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 06 May, 2015 6:21 pm

RobertSnozers wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:
PETER OBORNE: "THIS COULD BE THE MOST IMPORTANT ELECTION OF MY LIFETIME"

http://www.bigissue.com/features/5177/p ... y-lifetime
Intriguing assessment. My admiration for Oborne increases.

Thank you for the link.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Wed 06 May, 2015 6:28 pm

citizenJA wrote:
Willow904 wrote:Hello all.

Just trying out my election avatar. I've got my fingers crossed for Todd Foreman, but mostly I'm just hoping Labour do better in Scotland than expected. I'd like to see Labour on 300, but have no idea if it could happen. I still think a Lab/Lib coalition is on, but I'm possibly alone in that!
Wonderful avatar! I'm fond of Todd Foreman. Blessings to you, Willow904.

Thanks JA.

I really want to be up to see the results coming in, but I'm rubbish on no sleep and what with the school run and the probable hung parliament shenanigans on the Friday, I'm wondering if I should try to get up early instead. I think Rees-Mogg's fate will be declared about 5:00 - 5:30am. I'll guess we'll have a good idea of which way it's going by then.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 06 May, 2015 6:28 pm

Roger Scully's done his number crunching on today's Welsh poll:

''If we apply the swings implied by this poll from the May 2010 general election result uniformly across Wales, this produces the following outcome in terms of parliamentary seats:

Labour: 28 seats (keeping the 26 seats they won in 2010, and gaining both Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats and Cardiff North from the Conservatives);

Conservatives: 8 seats (losing Cardiff North to Labour, but gaining Brecon & Radnor from the Liberal Democrats);

Plaid Cymru: 3 seats (no change);

Liberal Democrats: 1 seat (losing both Cardiff Central and Brecon & Radnor, and holding on only to Ceredigion).''

or

''Postscript: And for the die-hard Welsh psephology enthusiasts out there (yes, both of you), here are the Ratio Swing seat projections from the poll:

Labour: 28 seats (keeping the 26 seats they won in 2010, and gaining both Cardiff Central from the Liberal Democrats and Cardiff North from the Conservatives);

Conservatives: 8 seats (losing Cardiff North to Labour, but gaining Brecon & Radnor from the Liberal Democrats);

Plaid Cymru: 4 seats (keeping the three seats won in 2010 and gaining Ceredigion);

Liberal Democrats: 0 seats (losing Cardiff Central, Brecon & Radnor, and Ceredigion)

He also says Greens have had a poor campaign, probably potty Bortolotti didn't help.

http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 06 May, 2015 6:28 pm

Mark Ferguson @Markfergusonuk · 5m 5 minutes ago
The YouGov “nowcast” has Labour and the Tories tied on 276 seats. https://yougov.co.uk/#/centre

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Wed 06 May, 2015 6:29 pm

Final YouGov Nowcast:
Con 276, Lab 276, Lib Dem 23, UKIP 1, SNP 51

Now that would piss Cameron off no end.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 06 May, 2015 6:31 pm

Mark Littlewood ‏@MarkJLittlewood 58 mins58 minutes ago

For those hoping for/predicting 1992 style Tory surge...back then, it showed up in the polls on eve of election day. In #ge2015, it isn't.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Wed 06 May, 2015 6:32 pm

Spacedone wrote:
Final YouGov Nowcast:
Con 276, Lab 276, Lib Dem 23, UKIP 1, SNP 51
Now that would piss Cameron off no end.

Thank you.
Thank you, everyone.

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Wed 06 May, 2015 6:34 pm

Low pay and high rent: is work really the route out of poverty in Tory Britain?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... -chingford

This is a Tory stronghold, the kingdom of Iain Duncan Smith. At the last election, the secretary of state for work and pensions won a decisive 52.8% of the vote in Chingford and Woodford Green, a near-13,000 majority over his Labour competitor. But Tory England is not all booming, leafy suburbia. Work is the route out of poverty, says the coalition, and yet according to a study by the TUC, Duncan Smith’s constituency in north-east London has the fifth highest proportion of low-paid workers in Britain. Nearly half of its workers are paid less than a living wage, a far worse record than even communities scarred by deindustrialisation, such as the Rhondda Valley, the TUC says.

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Wed 06 May, 2015 6:36 pm

ohsocynical wrote:Mark Littlewood ‏@MarkJLittlewood 58 mins58 minutes ago

For those hoping for/predicting 1992 style Tory surge...back then, it showed up in the polls on eve of election day. In #ge2015, it isn't.

The real wildcard in this election is what all those undecideds do tomorrow.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 06 May, 2015 6:41 pm

Spacedone wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:Mark Littlewood ‏@MarkJLittlewood 58 mins58 minutes ago

For those hoping for/predicting 1992 style Tory surge...back then, it showed up in the polls on eve of election day. In #ge2015, it isn't.
The real wildcard in this election is what all those undecideds do tomorrow.

My nerves have just gone all a-twingle again.

Post by **refitman** » Wed 06 May, 2015 6:48 pm

Mobile style is back

You will need to refresh the page if you are on a mobile device.

Now to have a look at 'Thanks'.

GetYou · Post by **GetYou** » Wed 06 May, 2015 6:49 pm

The overwhelming feeling I had about the 1992 election is that people were voting for what they felt was better for themselves and not society as a whole. I hope that tomorrow there is a stronger sense of community.

(edit: clarity)

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Wed 06 May, 2015 7:07 pm

Spacedone wrote:
Final YouGov Nowcast:
Con 276, Lab 276, Lib Dem 23, UKIP 1, SNP 51
Now that would piss Cameron off no end.

In which case there really is only one way to settle this...

Scissors, Paper, Stone

Best of 3

Post by **refitman** » Wed 06 May, 2015 8:05 pm

refitman wrote:Mobile style is back

You will need to refresh the page if you are on a mobile device.

Now to have a look at 'Thanks'.

Sorry about that.

I will leave installing 'Thanks' until the weekend. God knows, now is not the time to break the forum.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 06 May, 2015 8:07 pm

Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn 17m17 minutes ago
Wow. We now have the final @YouGov poll for #GE2015; 10,000 asked. Peter Kellner's final seat projection also revealed at 10pm on #SunNation

Smithson is saying this tweet probably means a good final poll for the Tories .... hmmmm.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 06 May, 2015 8:07 pm

refitman wrote:
refitman wrote:Mobile style is back

You will need to refresh the page if you are on a mobile device.

Now to have a look at 'Thanks'.
Sorry about that.

I will leave installing 'Thanks' until the weekend. God knows, now is not the time to break the forum.

You're a tinker, you are!

Calm, calm, calm . . . .

(Thanks for your efforts.)