Thursday 7th May

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:15 pm

Yougov exit poll different

CON 284 MPs, LAB 263, LIBS 31, SNP 48, UKIP 2, PLAID 3, GREEN 1

http://www.sunnation.co.uk/up-split-cre ... lls-close/

Post by **refitman** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:16 pm

Nicola Sturgeon's doubting 58 seats for the SNP (from the BBC).

mbc1955 · Post by **mbc1955** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:16 pm

A pretty sickening kick in the stomach, straight out of the blocks.

If there's any truth to it, then I confess my sadness at having lost my country, which will become a totally alien place to me.

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:16 pm

Crumbs of hope, albeit from the LD's and SNP on AS. Both discount poll.

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:18 pm

As they keep saying, it would only take a tiny variation for the picture to be completely different. Everything depends on people having told the pollsters the truth, whereabouts the votes stack up, which individuals have lost their seats, etcetera.

Nicola Sturgeon has said treat with extreme caution, such a result for SNP is unlikely. And Paddy Ashdown has said that if the exit poll is correct he will publicly eat his hat on Andrew Neil's programme, as one of the polls pre-election gave LDs 30 seats whilst exit poll says 10 and they can't both be right.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:18 pm

I was prepared for some nail-biting. I wasn't, in any way, prepared for this.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:19 pm

Exit poll of 20000. That's 30 people per constituency.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:20 pm

Greens supposed to get a second seat?

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:21 pm

Nick Robinson ‏@bbcnickrobinson 43 secs43 seconds ago

I agree with Nic RT@NicolaSturgeon I'd treat the exit poll with HUGE caution. I'm hoping for a good night but I think 58 seats is unlikely!

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:21 pm

Survation. ‏@Survation · May 6
FINAL @dailymirror poll. Headline is ballot paper. Sample size 4088:
CON 31.4% LAB 31.4% UKIP 15.7% LD 9.6% GRE 4.8 SNP 4.7% PC 0.4 AP 1.9%

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:22 pm

StephenDolan wrote:Exit poll of 20000. That's 30 people per constituency.

I think they only look at 150 constituencies don't they?

The only glimmer of hope is that there is a massive difference between the Yougov poll and the BBC one - it is such a close election that small variations may mean big difference in seat numbers

Can't see much positive light but am truly, truly shocked and disgusted if it is the case

mikems · Post by **mikems** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:22 pm

Someone posted a link on one of the G's blogs to a post where the accuracy of exit polling under the current circumstances might not be very good. It was in the last two elections but UKIP and SNP were not factors and the methodology they are currently using is untested. It took them quite a long time to get them right before hitting two on the trot. And, apparently, the people running one of the polls suggested it oughtn't to be considered as very reliable.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:23 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:
StephenDolan wrote:Exit poll of 20000. That's 30 people per constituency.

I think they only look at 150 constituencies don't they?

The only glimmer of hope is that there is a massive difference between the Yougov poll and the BBC one - it is such a close election that small variations may mean big difference in seat numbers

Can't see much positive light but am truly, truly shocked and disgusted if it is the case

Ditto. Stunned here. The pollsters are so far off.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:24 pm

Andrew Spooner retweeted
Michael Gray ‏@GrayInGlasgow 6 mins6 minutes ago
Breaking: YouGov exit poll is VERY different.
Tory 284 MPs,
Labour 263,
SNP 48,
LibDems 31,
UKIP 2,
Plaid 3,
Green 1
#GE15

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:25 pm

Hope this helps raise a smile.....

[youtube]VmW-ScmGRMA[/youtube]

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:25 pm

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 32 secs33 seconds ago
There were reports that the exit pollsters were finding it hard to persuade people to be interviewed with particularly problems in Scotland

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:26 pm

Harriet Harman sounds as if she believes the exit polls.

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:26 pm

Harriet Harman points out that, if BBC/Sky exit poll is correct, the current coalition's majority has been all but wiped out. This gives them only 326 seats between them, remember, 1 under instead of an overall majority of 27 73.

Spot the edit...

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:27 pm

I am not watching TV coverage (too depressed) - what is body language like....in the end the parties themselves have a good idea, I imagine, how it is going

The quote from Harman at the other place seems to support a bad night for Labour - anyone have a view?

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:29 pm

Not sure what you mean - 326 is majority

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:30 pm

So the Lib Dems are obliterated by the Conservatives, Labour wiped out by the SNP.

That's some turnaround from Lib Dem voters in their marginals?

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:32 pm

The exit polls are bollucks. Anyone on here get asked who they voted for?

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:33 pm

@Hobiejoe

Thanks!

My daughter has just come in. Apparently, I look completely white. I believe her.

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:33 pm

I can tell you one thing - I'm not going BTL over there until the picture becomes clearer, I don't think my blood pressure, or indeed sanity could take the gloating.

Here's to hoping that Mistress Hubris works her magic.

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:34 pm

Kellner puzzled. Requestioned 6,000 people today and could find no movement.

Nic R points out, if 30 seats for LDs (yougov) is correct, rather than 10 (BBC/Sky), those extra seats will mostly come at expense of Cons so Cons get fewer seats.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:34 pm

Hi Temulkar

Hope you are right......and nice to see you here again

If the polls are right then us on the left (and with a heart) have to be united against this party of degenerates

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:36 pm

Temulkar wrote:The exit polls are bollucks. Anyone on here get asked who they voted for?

Only by friends, shopkeeper, neighbours. I'm with you, Tem, and am delighted to see you here

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:36 pm

I fucking hate David Cameron.

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:36 pm

Temulkar wrote:The exit polls are bollucks. Anyone on here get asked who they voted for?

Hi Tem good to see you and out of 5 in our family no one was asked

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:36 pm

Exit polls comparison (BBC vs. YouGov)
Cons: 316 vs. 284
Lab: 239 vs. 263
Lib Dem: 10 vs. 31
SNP: 58 vs. 48
UKIP: 2 vs. 2

SpinningHugo · Post by **SpinningHugo** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:37 pm

The YouGov is not an exit poll. A recontact poll.

As someone says on twitter. If you are too ashamed to tell anyone you've voted Tory, you know you are wrong.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:37 pm

PorFavor wrote:I fucking hate David Cameron.

I am a lover not a hater...but this is one man who I truly despise

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:38 pm

And what is the relative accuracy (in recent terms) of an exit versus recontact poll? I guess the former gets to people the latter wouldn't?

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:41 pm

I'm with PF on this one

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:41 pm

Clegg's probably on the phone to Dave as we speak, begging for his job back.

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:43 pm

Labour going strongly with the "support of the house line"

It has been close all the way through - and exit polls have been wrong in the past. YouGov figures are very different from the BBC’s. The coalition came into the election with a majority of 73 and even if the BBC exit poll is right, that has all but been wiped out. Who forms the next government is who can carry the confidence of the House of Commons.

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:44 pm

Does anyone remember how many polls there were back in 1992? Did they do constant polling back then? I'm finding it hard to believe that the thousands of polls we've had are all wrong and one exit poll is correct.

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:44 pm

pk1 wrote:Clegg's probably on the phone to Dave as we speak, begging for his job back.

Assuming Clegg's retained his seat. Or can you be Deputy PM from the House of Lords if you get kicked there quickly?

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:45 pm

PorFavor wrote:I fucking hate David Cameron.

Me too PF. Me too.
Sorry, but I hate anyone who's voted for them this time. I hope something happens to them that makes them suffer. And when it happens that they regret voting for the evilest, greediest political party this country has ever had.

mikems · Post by **mikems** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:45 pm

Let's see what the swings are in the real voting.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:45 pm

@LouiseMensch: ALL POLLS Showed a late swing to Labour last night. More likely the exit poll is wrong than they all are.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:46 pm

Sorry....Hello Tem. Hope you're well.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:48 pm

People are despairing on Twitter. I don't think I can bear to read any more.

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:48 pm

LadyCentauria wrote:
pk1 wrote:Clegg's probably on the phone to Dave as we speak, begging for his job back.
Assuming Clegg's retained his seat. Or can you be Deputy PM from the House of Lords if you get kicked there quickly?

Yes actually you can. YOu can be prime minister from the Lords but hasnt happened since Salisbury.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:50 pm

Okay so what is the first marginal likely to announce? I've dumped the TV, I'm FTN only for now!

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:50 pm

Sunderland South: cons behind UKIP, Labour win

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:51 pm

I'm having a gin.

I don't think I can bear getting up in the morning and seeing Cameron's fat, pink face trying to be all statesman like, after the most pathetic campaign in my lifetime.

I'm with PorFavor, I fucking hate the bastard.

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:52 pm

Swing in Snderland 7% to labour - exit polls are drivel.

Post by **refitman** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:52 pm

Labour take Sunderland S. 21k votes. Ukip (8k) out polled the Tories (7k). Libs 791.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:52 pm

First marginal is nuneaton at 1.00