Thursday 7th May

Post by **refitman** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:52 pm

Hi Tem!

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:53 pm

Even in the despair, there is humour.

@Paddy Ashdown's Hat ‏31 minutes ago

No fucking way is he eating me

mikems · Post by **mikems** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:54 pm

Where are you getting the results from Temulkar?

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:54 pm

LibDems lose first deposit of the night

Post by **refitman** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:54 pm

refitman wrote:Labour take Sunderland S. 21k votes. Ukip (8k) out polled the Tories (7k). Libs 791.

Lost deposit for the Lib Dems.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:55 pm

tinyclanger2 wrote:First marginal is nuneaton at 1.00

Thanks TC2.

I felt gutted in 2010, that was nothing compared to this.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:57 pm

I'm letting Mr Ohso watch his normal TV programmes. He'll wander off to bed shortly and then I'll turn over to watch some of the results. Doing a lot of deep breathing to keep the panic down...

That first result made me feel a little better. A good swing.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:57 pm

curtice says sunderland swing in line with exit poll

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:57 pm

NUS UK ‏@nusuk · 1h1 hour ago
We're hearing a few worrying things about registered students being turned away. Did you have problems voting? Email pressoffice@nus.org.uk

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:59 pm

If this exit poll IS true, it proves that the rise of the SNP has once again heralded a Tory govt.

They must feel so proud......

FuriousGeorge · Post by **FuriousGeorge** » Thu 07 May, 2015 10:59 pm

tinyclanger2 wrote:curtice says sunderland swing in line with exit poll

Aside from the massive UKIP gain which he brushed over swiftly.

Also 5% lab swing seems OK to me, no?

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:00 pm

pk1 wrote:If this exit poll IS true, it proves that the rise of the SNP has once again heralded a Tory govt.

They must feel so proud......

Already seen a few of them saying that it was England that turned to the Tories.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:01 pm

Don't know what to say yet. Just in from late door knocking - to be hit by this exit poll stuff. Will just have to wait and see.

However - pleased to hear on TV in the background Mandelson of all people praising Miliband for running a magnificent campaign.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:01 pm

Rumour has it that Ed Balls might have lost his seat.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:02 pm

Spacedone wrote:
pk1 wrote:If this exit poll IS true, it proves that the rise of the SNP has once again heralded a Tory govt.

They must feel so proud......
Already seen a few of them saying that it was England that turned to the Tories.

Obvs, because losing 41 Lab MPs to SNP has no effect whatsoever.......

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:02 pm

LadyCentauria wrote:LibDems lose first deposit of the night

I think it's going to be an up and down night.

I'm gobsmacked because mingling with our Tory councilors this evening even they aren't expecting a workable win. They're banking on another election within weeks.

Post by **refitman** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:02 pm

Alastair Campbell on the BBC now.

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:04 pm

Alistair Campbell offer to eat his kilt if exit poll is correct!

Post by **refitman** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:04 pm

Houghton and Sunderland South results in full.

Bridget Phillipson (Lab) 21,218 (55.13%, +4.79%)
Richard Elvin (UKIP) 8,280 (21.51%, +18.82%)
Stewart Hay (C) 7,105 (18.46%, -2.97%)
Alan Robinson (Green) 1,095 (2.84%)
Jim Murray (LD) 791 (2.06%, -11.86%)
Lab maj 12,938 (33.61%)
7.01% swing Lab to Ukip
Electorate 68,316; Turnout 38,489 (56.34%, +1.02%)

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:05 pm

Morley and Outwood (Balls) expected at 4.30

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:06 pm

Dr Éoin Clarke ‏@LabourEoin 1 min1 minute ago

David Cameron's career is over. Trust me, 323 MPs will not vote for his manifesto promises. By night's end, he will not command a maj in HoC

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:06 pm

Emma Kennedy ‏@EmmaKennedy · 14m14 minutes ago
Stand by. Just seen tweet saying Ed Balls may be in danger of losing his seat.

Just checked he only has majority of 1,101

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:06 pm

ohsocynical wrote:Dr Éoin Clarke ‏@LabourEoin 1 min1 minute ago

David Cameron's career is over. Trust me, 323 MPs will not vote for his manifesto promises. By night's end, he will not command a maj in HoC

2nd election?

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:07 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:Rumour has it that Ed Balls might have lost his seat.

A rumour from Gove's ex-advisor....

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:07 pm

Lib Dems losing votes as a punishment for austerity? So where has their vote gone? Surely not to the Conservatives?

Labour up 5% (Sunderland) in the BBC's thing - but in the same BBC studio John Curtice says they're up 4%.

SNP have snookered themselves if the exit polls are right. Assuming all their "keeping out the Conservatives" claptrap was true.

Ed Balls in danger? How many circles of hell are there? Someone remind me.

rearofthestore · Post by **rearofthestore** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:07 pm

Surely swing CON to LAB in Houghton is only 3.9%

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:08 pm

When & where is the next result expected ?

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:08 pm

ohsocynical wrote:Dr Éoin Clarke ‏@LabourEoin 1 min1 minute ago

David Cameron's career is over. Trust me, 323 MPs will not vote for his manifesto promises. By night's end, he will not command a maj in HoC

Is that going off the BBC exit poll figures? If so, why wouldn't they, he's in a strong position surely?

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:08 pm

LadyCentauria wrote:
RogerOThornhill wrote:Rumour has it that Ed Balls might have lost his seat.
A rumour from Gove's ex-advisor....

Sam Freeman's all right, not the usual sort that hangs around him.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:10 pm

pk1 wrote:When & where is the next result expected ?

http://huff.to/1QlWcCj

Next batch

603 Washington & Sunderland West 23:30

551 Sunderland Central 00:01

216 Durham North West 00:30

14 Antrim North 01:00

175 Dagenham & Rainham 01:00

215 Durham North 01:00

255 Foyle 01:00

435 Nuneaton 01:00

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:10 pm

Paul Waugh retweeted
Owen Bennett ‏@owenjbennett 3m3 minutes ago
Labour source at South Thanet count reckons ukip third, with Tory/labour fighting it out for win. #GE2015

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:11 pm

Electoral Calculus, who were closest to predicting the result with their exit poll in 2010, have:
CON: 280
LAB: 274
LIB DEM: 21
SNP: 52

utopiandreams · Post by **utopiandreams** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:11 pm

Personally I think you're all worrying far too much. I told you last night not to trust the polls, they're all a game. My far more reliable finger in the air methodology forecasts Labour as the largest party.

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:11 pm

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
LadyCentauria wrote:
RogerOThornhill wrote:Rumour has it that Ed Balls might have lost his seat.
A rumour from Gove's ex-advisor....
Sam Freeman's all right, not the usual sort that hangs around him.

Thanks, Tubby. I don't remember having heard of him, before.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:12 pm

Nick Robinson ‏@bbcnickrobinson 22s23 seconds ago
Hear that ballot boxes only recently arrived at @edballsmp count so rumour re losing his seat seems to be just that - a rumour

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:12 pm

AngryAsWell wrote:Emma Kennedy ‏@EmmaKennedy · 14m14 minutes ago
Stand by. Just seen tweet saying Ed Balls may be in danger of losing his seat.

Just checked he only has majority of 1,101

Be interesting to see what UKIP gets in that one and where it seems to be coming from.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:12 pm

ohso I'm SO missing that thanks button

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:14 pm

The first result os difficult to judge swing as I doubt LD votes in a strong Labour seat would break to Labour particularly strongly

Need Nuneaton - it that stays Tory then game over I think

seeingclearly · Post by **seeingclearly** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:14 pm

Just got back as heard of exit poll. This is terrifying.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:14 pm

Ed Wilson ‏@eddwilson 10 mins10 minutes ago

Exit polls don't include postal votes (obviously).

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:14 pm

Is the Electoral Calculus an exit poll or something else?

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:14 pm

Allegra Stratton ‏@BBCAllegra 1m1 minute ago
Allegra Stratton retweeted Peter Franklin
Interesting list of Rump Lib Dems (#ifexitpollisright). Big characters left.

Peter Franklin
‏@peterfranklin_
If only 10 Lib Dem survivors I'd guess: Carmichael, Clegg, Farron, Lamb, Laws, Hughes, Cable, Russell, Webb, Davey

How depressing is that list ...

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:15 pm

ohsocynical wrote:Ed Wilson ‏@eddwilson 10 mins10 minutes ago

Exit polls don't include postal votes (obviously).

So that's 4 million votes right there...

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:16 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:ohso I'm SO missing that thanks button

Yes - I'm desperate to thank everyone. I truly feel bereft.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:16 pm

There won't only be 10 Lib Dems

Just like there won't be 58 SNPs

Shirley

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:16 pm

Sunderland Central: Labour hold

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:16 pm

Spacedone wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:Ed Wilson ‏@eddwilson 10 mins10 minutes ago

Exit polls don't include postal votes (obviously).
So that's 4 million votes right there...

But don't they normally favour the Tories...I would imagine them doing so

Post by **refitman** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:16 pm

Labour hold Sundeland central with an increased majority.

rearofthestore · Post by **rearofthestore** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:17 pm

Big swing in Sunderland Central 5.5% to Labour

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:17 pm

2nd lost deposit for LDs in Sunderland Central