Thursday 7th May

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:18 pm

refitman wrote:Labour hold Sundeland central with an increased majority.

Increased by how much - remember there were big swings against labour in these heartland seats in 2010?

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:18 pm

Sunderland Central +5% for Labour

UKIP taking votes from Tories and LibDems - they can do that all night as far as I'm concerned.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:18 pm

Just to add a small silver lining.

If the exit poll is correct, a Tory led government will have a tiny majority, not the 50 odd they had this time.

You can forget all this bollocks about mega austerity, they will be struggling to get by day to day.

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:19 pm

What the hell is anyone who calls themselve a liberal doing switching their vote to UKIP?

Post by **refitman** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:19 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:ohso I'm SO missing that thanks button

Patience, young padawan.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:20 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:ohso I'm SO missing that thanks button

Me too.

And I do wish Mr Ohso would go to bed! I told him I'd be okay with the computer, the results would start coming in around the time he goes to bed so he wouldn't need to miss the programmes he likes to watch.
Awkward sod!

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:20 pm

Ed Balls doesn't look too worried.

Post by **refitman** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:21 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:
refitman wrote:Labour hold Sundeland central with an increased majority.
Increased by how much - remember there were big swings against labour in these heartland seats in 2010?

Lab hold with a 26.8% majority, 57% turnout
candidates votes %
Julie Elliott 20,959 50.2% Labour
Jeffrey Townsend 9,780 23.4% Cons
Bryan Foster 7,997 19.1% Ukip
Rachel Featherstone 1,706 4.1% Green
Adrian Page 1,105 2.6% Lib Dem
Joseph Young 215 0.5% Indy

6k majority in 2010

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:21 pm

Spacedone wrote:What the hell is anyone who calls themselve a liberal doing switching their vote to UKIP?

Because lots of their voters were always "none of the above" bores.

mikems · Post by **mikems** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:21 pm

You can forget all this bollocks about mega austerity, they will be struggling to get by day to day.

Yes, they will struggle to hold themselves together. The Liberals will have increased leverage despite having fewer MPs and the tory right will be even more outraged at being restrained.

That's if the Liberals want another coalition with the tories after being almost wiped out by them.

Post by **refitman** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:22 pm

The Graun's results page is quite good. Updated quickly as well.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng- ... ts-in-full

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:22 pm

Results aside, the emergent star so far tonight is easily John Curtice, representing the British Polling Council on BBC1. He’s evidently panicking about the veracity of the exit poll, and it’s paying a heavy toll on his appearance. At 10pm, he was perfectly presentable. At 10.30pm, he’d started to look a little more ragged. At 11pm, his hair was all over the place, as if – as someone on Twitter put it – like he’d brushed it with a balloon. Next time we cut back to him, there’s a very good chance that he’ll be on fire, or curled up in his suit jacket and whispering into his shoes. It’s going to be a long night, John. Pace yourself.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:22 pm

Right, quick kip for me, back at 2.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:23 pm

Spacedone wrote:What the hell is anyone who calls themselve a liberal doing switching their vote to UKIP?

They're putting that seeming anomaly down as 'churn' on ITV (Mr Riots choice) - i.e. lots of people switching around between parties rather than a straight swap from LD to Ukip.

I've been wondering (hoping?) whether with these so called safe Labour seats that get declared first there is an element of the Green vote - which has been up by about 4% so far - increasing because they know it is apparently safe Labour and think it won't jeopardise the overall outcome ....?

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:23 pm

BBC talking about a trend they've noticed... after 2 results. It's the European/Local elections all over again.

Post by **refitman** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:23 pm

pk1 wrote:
Results aside, the emergent star so far tonight is easily John Curtice, representing the British Polling Council on BBC1. He’s evidently panicking about the veracity of the exit poll, and it’s paying a heavy toll on his appearance. At 10pm, he was perfectly presentable. At 10.30pm, he’d started to look a little more ragged. At 11pm, his hair was all over the place, as if – as someone on Twitter put it – like he’d brushed it with a balloon. Next time we cut back to him, there’s a very good chance that he’ll be on fire, or curled up in his suit jacket and whispering into his shoes. It’s going to be a long night, John. Pace yourself.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:23 pm

Spacedone wrote:What the hell is anyone who calls themselve a liberal doing switching their vote to UKIP?

One of the UKIP lot turned up to do some Telling today in track suit bottoms - which is fine by me, whatever you're comfortable in - but it was topped with a leather cowboy hat with the UKIP rosette pinned to the brim...He also had the biggest moustache you ever saw. Quite scared a couple of the little old ladies that came in to vote....

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:24 pm

refitman wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:ohso I'm SO missing that thanks button
Patience, young padawan.

Dan I so want to thank you for that

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:24 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:Sunderland Central +5% for Labour

UKIP taking votes from Tories and LibDems - they can do that all night as far as I'm concerned.

Yes - I thought a bit earlier that I was in the bizarre position of rooting for Ukip.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:25 pm

refitman wrote:
pk1 wrote:
Results aside, the emergent star so far tonight is easily John Curtice, representing the British Polling Council on BBC1. He’s evidently panicking about the veracity of the exit poll, and it’s paying a heavy toll on his appearance. At 10pm, he was perfectly presentable. At 10.30pm, he’d started to look a little more ragged. At 11pm, his hair was all over the place, as if – as someone on Twitter put it – like he’d brushed it with a balloon. Next time we cut back to him, there’s a very good chance that he’ll be on fire, or curled up in his suit jacket and whispering into his shoes. It’s going to be a long night, John. Pace yourself.

Oh thank you. You've made me laugh...

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:26 pm

PorFavor wrote:
RogerOThornhill wrote:Sunderland Central +5% for Labour

UKIP taking votes from Tories and LibDems - they can do that all night as far as I'm concerned.
Yes - I thought a bit earlier that I was in the bizarre position of rooting for Ukip.

Oh God. I think I'm suffering hysterical laughter.

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:26 pm

pk1 wrote:
Results aside, the emergent star so far tonight is easily John Curtice, representing the British Polling Council on BBC1. He’s evidently panicking about the veracity of the exit poll, and it’s paying a heavy toll on his appearance. At 10pm, he was perfectly presentable. At 10.30pm, he’d started to look a little more ragged. At 11pm, his hair was all over the place, as if – as someone on Twitter put it – like he’d brushed it with a balloon. Next time we cut back to him, there’s a very good chance that he’ll be on fire, or curled up in his suit jacket and whispering into his shoes. It’s going to be a long night, John. Pace yourself.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:27 pm

I was just cheering up, when the pub I'm in played the WONDERFUL Party Fears Two by the Associates

And what if this party fears two? The alcohol loves you while turning you blue.

Shirley not an omen....

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:29 pm

Labour are firming up their line on the exit poll. A party source says:

We are sceptical of the BBC poll. It looks wrong to us.

From the Graun

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:29 pm

Washington and Sunderland West: Labour hold

AngryAsWell · Post by **AngryAsWell** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:29 pm

Thousands of OAPs unable to cast votes in scandalous mix-up over registration

http://www.thenational.scot/politics/th ... 1430978963

This has been a filthy election

Post by **refitman** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:30 pm

Washington & Sunderland West:

Current Lab majority 11,458.

Labour hold. 20,478 votes. Lib Dems lose another deposit. Labour majority 13k+.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:30 pm

3rd LD deposit lost

rearofthestore · Post by **rearofthestore** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:30 pm

Smaller swing in Washington 2.7% to LAB

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:31 pm

ohsocynical wrote:
refitman wrote:
pk1 wrote:

Oh thank you. You've made me laugh...

Yes - hilarious! (Although I must confess that I initially misread "balloon" for "baboon".)

mbc1955 · Post by **mbc1955** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:32 pm

I'm following things via a combination of here and the Guardian (old habits die hard). I can't face any television. Not now.

Post by **refitman** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:32 pm

Balls: "Reports of my demise are cobblers, they haven't even opened the ballot boxes yet. David [Dimbleby] you should spend less time dicking around on twitter."

(I'm paraphrasing)

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:33 pm

refitman wrote:Balls: "Reports of my demise are cobblers, they haven't even opened the ballot boxes yet. David [Dimbleby] you should spend less time dicking around on twitter."

(I'm paraphrasing)

Thanks

Post by **refitman** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:34 pm

Washington & Sunderland West

Lab hold with a 35.3% majority, 55% turnout
candidates votes %
Sharon Hodgson 20,478 55.0% Labour
Aileen Casey 7,321 19.6% Ukip
Bob Dhillon 7,033 18.9% Cons
Anthony Murphy 1,091 2.9% Green
Dominic Haney 993 2.7% Lib Dems
Gary Duncan 341 0.9% Indy

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:34 pm

So...three results...early days.

Labour increased majorities
UKIP picking up votes from both Tory and LibDem.

Those polls with UKIP on 12-15% - they had to come from somewhere!

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:35 pm

mbc1955 wrote:I'm following things via a combination of here and the Guardian (old habits die hard). I can't face any television. Not now.

I watch my TV online so I've got the BBC on with the sound off and shrunk to a small screen so that I can turn it on whenever there's a declaration. I couldn't care less what Dimbleby et al say.

Rest of my screen is taken up with FTN, Twitter, Guardian etc. Benefits of using a big TV as my computer monitor.

Edit: Also listening to Radio Sheffield election coverage. Currently tapping my toes to a Cranberries song.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:35 pm

Police are investigating an allegation of voter fraud in the Glasgow East constituency. I understand that there has been an allegation of personation, where an individual votes under someone else’s identity. I have asked count officials for further details.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:35 pm

@LabourEoin just saw this: Electoral Calculus (closest at the 2010 election) are predicting
CON = 280
LAB = 274
LIB DEM = 21
SNP = 52

mikems · Post by **mikems** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:36 pm

Those early results show Labour vote increasing and UKIP taking votes from the tories. The UKIP vote is uniform across the country, so why won't they be taking similar chunks elsewhere? The tory vote must have increased massively from their previous high point in 2010 (but not in any of the seats announced so far) for that exit poll to be right.

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:36 pm

AngryAsWell wrote:Thousands of OAPs unable to cast votes in scandalous mix-up over registration

http://www.thenational.scot/politics/th ... 1430978963

This has been a filthy election

Heard on Beeb that Police are at Glasgow count 'with blue gloves on' investigating an impersonation, too. This voter registration business seems disastrous. Can it have any effect on outcomes?

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:38 pm

rearofthestore wrote:Smaller swing in Washington 2.7% to LAB

The idea of swings seems more and more silly when there is no longer a virtually two-horse race in today's multi-party politics.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:38 pm

Two contrasting stories from my last door knocking session this evening.

I was sent to knock on a door where 'I hope there will be 5 good Labour votes we knocked earlier and no one was in'. The door was answered by a woman who when I said I was just asking if they'd been out to vote today ... virtually whispered, and I mean whispered, 'yes'. I then asked her if she would mind telling me how they'd voted ... she whispered 'Conservative, he told me to vote Conservative'. My mouth must have dropped and I couldn't stop myself saying 'Why would you vote Conservative?'. 'He told me to'. He appeared in the doorway and all conversation with her stopped. Another team member was chatting with the next door neighbour who is a friend and Labour supporter. When she saw him in the doorway she called across to say she hoped he had voted the right way. He said - clearly very pleased with himself - 'I put a cross in the box of the person who will be right for me.' The dynamic and atmosphere was horrible - truly horrible.

Just to say most of our conversations and check in sessions with people were very positive ... this was just pretty shocking for us.

On the drive back in the car our oldest, most experienced canvasser told us about a Labour friend who lived in Haverfordwest who is now too old to go out door knocking. He lost his mother when he was 4 and his father when he was 8. He said he was eating jam sandwiches in his house with the coffin in the next room one day and the next day he was in the workhouse where he stayed until he was 14. And it wasn't that long ago - it was in living memory. Again very shocking and a very timely reminder of what people still with us fought to make better in society.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:38 pm

mikems wrote:Those early results show Labour vote increasing and UKIP taking votes from the tories. The UKIP vote is uniform across the country, so why won't they be taking similar chunks elsewhere? The tory vote must have increased massively from their previous high point in 2010 (but not in any of the seats announced so far) for that exit poll to be right.

Nuneaton is a key seat - West Mids which is not usually great for Labour in the marginals for some reason (I am from Wolverhampton and blame it on the fact that all the West Brom fans pollute the atmosphere with their lack of brainpower....the prevailing wind blows it away from us though)

Seems in my depression I am now rambling!

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:40 pm

David Dimbleby is such an arse.

Ed Balls has just given a very good interview, though.

Today, I'll mostly be swearing . . .

(I don't usually swear in writing - it doesn't come naturally to me. But it does tonight.)

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:40 pm

LadyCentauria wrote:
rearofthestore wrote:Smaller swing in Washington 2.7% to LAB
The idea of swings seems more and more silly when there is no longer a virtually two-horse race in today's multi-party politics.

Roundabouts?

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:41 pm

PorFavor wrote:David Dimbleby is such an arse.

Ed Balls has just given a very good interview, though.

Today, I'll mostly be swearing . . .

(I don't usually swear in writing - it doesn't come naturally to me. But it does tonight.)

Hopefully along the lines of stuff your exit poll up it!

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:42 pm

LadyCentauria wrote:
rearofthestore wrote:Smaller swing in Washington 2.7% to LAB
The idea of swings seems more and more silly when there is no longer a virtually two-horse race in today's multi-party politics.

I really didn't understand how it can be a Labour to UKIP swing when Labour increased their majority.

Post by **refitman** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:43 pm

Peter Snow, Jeremy Vine is not.

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:43 pm

Christallmighty - Jeremy Vine. Politics for toddlers.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:44 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:
LadyCentauria wrote:
rearofthestore wrote:Smaller swing in Washington 2.7% to LAB
The idea of swings seems more and more silly when there is no longer a virtually two-horse race in today's multi-party politics.
I really didn't understand how it can be a Labour to UKIP swing when Labour increased their majority.

Yeah I'm struggling with that, but am assuming I'm missing something.