Thursday 7th May

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:44 pm

refitman wrote:Peter Snow, Jeremy Vine is not.

Snap.

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:46 pm

RogerOThornhill wrote:
LadyCentauria wrote:
rearofthestore wrote:Smaller swing in Washington 2.7% to LAB
The idea of swings seems more and more silly when there is no longer a virtually two-horse race in today's multi-party politics.
I really didn't understand how it can be a Labour to UKIP swing when Labour increased their majority.

That didn't make any sense to me either.

WelshIan · Post by **WelshIan** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:48 pm

mbc1955 wrote:I'm following things via a combination of here and the Guardian (old habits die hard). I can't face any television. Not now.

Channel 4 is ok - tried BBC and ITV and couldn't stick them.

I'm still in shock, though, at that exit poll

LadyCentauria · Post by **LadyCentauria** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:48 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
LadyCentauria wrote:
rearofthestore wrote:Smaller swing in Washington 2.7% to LAB
The idea of swings seems more and more silly when there is no longer a virtually two-horse race in today's multi-party politics.
Roundabouts?

Ha! Yes

@RR2: Shocked to read your post. I wonder if all 5 at that address followed 'his' orders? Awful to be in such fear of someone that you can't cast your private ballot according to your own views. And a salutary reminder from the older gentleman of how people were treated in the not-too-distant past

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:49 pm

Jeremy Vine always sounds to me as if he's screeching Sun headlines. Dreadful.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:49 pm

What is the current view on this Exit Poll

Is it starting to be undermined a bit or it is too early to say....more info from seats will be coming in even if not confirmed results?

Getting all info from here and Grauniad at the moment

If completely wrong I will watch on catch-up to watch it unravel....although this is still wishful thinking

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:50 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
PorFavor wrote:David Dimbleby is such an arse.

Ed Balls has just given a very good interview, though.

Today, I'll mostly be swearing . . .

(I don't usually swear in writing - it doesn't come naturally to me. But it does tonight.)
Hopefully along the lines of stuff your exit poll up it!

I'm not watching BBC on principle. If there is a disaster, they'll have to take part responsibility for it, so I'm boycotting the buggers.

mbc1955 · Post by **mbc1955** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:51 pm

Apart from that early comment by Oiky Gove, there seems to have been very little comment on the exit poll from the bastard Tories. You don't think that it could be that they don't believe it either?

The LDs seem to think that Clegg is safe: I'd trade that for a good result now.

Post by **refitman** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:51 pm

Oh joy, Fallon's on now. Tories really rolling out the charmers tonight.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:51 pm

Sodding Michael Fallon now!

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:52 pm

refitman wrote:Oh joy, Fallon's on now. Tories really rolling out the charmers tonight.

well they have so many to choose from

mikems · Post by **mikems** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:52 pm

I think they've all shot themselves at Labour List

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:52 pm

howsillyofme1 wrote:What is the current view on this Exit Poll

Is it starting to be undermined a bit or it is too early to say....more info from seats will be coming in even if not confirmed results?

Getting all info from here and Grauniad at the moment

If completely wrong I will watch on catch-up to watch it unravel....although this is still wishful thinking

It may be right, there is no evidence one way or the other.

However if I am clutching at straws looking at some of their predictions I wonder if they have been a bit too clever.

Labour List is broken at the moment, some counts should have some idea by now.

Post by **refitman** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:53 pm

mbc1955 wrote:Apart from that early comment by Oiky Gove, there seems to have been very little comment on the exit poll from the bastard Tories. You don't think that it could be that they don't believe it either?

The LDs seem to think that Clegg is safe: I'd trade that for a good result now.

Libs discounting the exit poll as well:

Nick Clegg’s close ally and the former Lib Dem leader of Sheffield city council, Paul Scriven, is at the Sheffield count. He says the exit poll “looks completely rogue”.

“You take a look at the YouGov poll and I think that gives a completely different picture,” he said, adding that it went against “everything we’re hearing from our activists around the country”.

He was asked whether such a result would make Clegg’s position as leader untenable. “I don’t think it is going to be that result,” he said. “So we’re hypothesising.

“I think we need to all take a breath and wait until the evening gets a bit more firm.”

He denied that tactical voting for Clegg by natural Conservative party supporters would play a large role in the outcome of the election in Sheffield Hallam, something Monday’s Guardian/ICM poll in the constituency pointed to. He said people were “very clear and focused about what they needed to do – to go out and vote for a strong MP”.

From the Graun.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:53 pm

Hoho, Michael Fallon has chosen to get into a war of words on constitutional affairs with Alistair Campbell on BBC.

Silly Fallon !

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:54 pm

LadyCentauria wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
LadyCentauria wrote: The idea of swings seems more and more silly when there is no longer a virtually two-horse race in today's multi-party politics.
Roundabouts?
Ha! Yes

@RR2: Shocked to read your post. I wonder if all 5 at that address followed 'his' orders? Awful to be in such fear of someone that you can't cast your private ballot according to your own views. And a salutary reminder from the older gentleman of how people were treated in the not-too-distant past

When women are bullied it's very hard to imagine the extent to which it goes...A ballot is private and although nothing is 100% perfect it's damn near. Nothing to stop you or I putting the cross where we damn well please, but these women are so cowed they wouldn't dream of doing anything their partner disagreed with.
What an awful state to be in.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:54 pm

PorFavor wrote:Sodding Michael Fallon now!

I flicked over to Sky at one point & Theresa May was yapping. I hastily switched back.

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:55 pm

The batteries will be worn out on my remote with all the flicking about.

Kay Burley, expletives switch over.
Michael Gove, swear and switch over.
Jeremy Vine, cuss and swear over.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:55 pm

BTW didn't Lousie Mensch say something sensible about the exit poll?

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:56 pm

Talk of Labour gaining Bradford West!

Wow.

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:57 pm

refitman wrote:
mbc1955 wrote:Apart from that early comment by Oiky Gove, there seems to have been very little comment on the exit poll from the bastard Tories. You don't think that it could be that they don't believe it either?

The LDs seem to think that Clegg is safe: I'd trade that for a good result now.
Libs discounting the exit poll as well:

Nick Clegg’s close ally and the former Lib Dem leader of Sheffield city council, Paul Scriven, is at the Sheffield count. He says the exit poll “looks completely rogue”.

“You take a look at the YouGov poll and I think that gives a completely different picture,” he said, adding that it went against “everything we’re hearing from our activists around the country”.

He was asked whether such a result would make Clegg’s position as leader untenable. “I don’t think it is going to be that result,” he said. “So we’re hypothesising.

“I think we need to all take a breath and wait until the evening gets a bit more firm.”

He denied that tactical voting for Clegg by natural Conservative party supporters would play a large role in the outcome of the election in Sheffield Hallam, something Monday’s Guardian/ICM poll in the constituency pointed to. He said people were “very clear and focused about what they needed to do – to go out and vote for a strong MP”.
From the Graun.

Can't stand Scrivens. Had personal experience of the depths that man was willing to go to crush anyone he considered opposition to his hold on power when he ran Sheffield Council.

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:57 pm

Hobiejoe wrote:Crikey, impressive pictures of huge queues to vote over on the AS blog. One of my locals even reported a queue of a dozen or so waiting for the doors to open at 7am in our little town. Unheard of previously.

I can't decide whether to stay up after work, or grab a few hours and get up with the missus (and sprog1, who is getting caught up in the excitement. She's eleven, and already won a Devon Rotary public speaking prize...I have high hopes.../proud dad) around 3.30/4am.

I reckon I'll see what the exit polls say.

Just home from work, and a quick update on Sprog1. Yup, she's asleep on the sofa, as she said she would, ready for the early-hours results.

I have been knocked so hard by the exit poll that I'm staying up in a mix of horror, desperation, that thing you do when you drive past an accident on the other carriageway and, almost imperceptibly, a smidgen of hope growing again....

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:57 pm

Indications that George Galloway will lose his seat to Labour.

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:58 pm

Blunkett

If we have lost this election, we have lost it from 2010, when in the six months after 201o we failed to nail the lie that Labour, the Labour government, had been responsible for the global meltdown, and everything that happened in the US, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, was the Labour government’s fault. It was such a nonsense. But the coalition got away with peddling that. I think we’ve got to think seriously about about avoiding a situation where we rush into something that might damage us in the long term.

Oh do fuck off ! How many of you tried to counter the lie ? Labour supporters country-wide were despairing of the fact you guys with the ear of the media, refused to counter the outrageous fucking lie so don't start griping now you fucking idiot !

I might have apologised for my atrocious language but I'm not in the least bit sorry so, sorry but no apology from me.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:58 pm

ClaudineLewis ‏@QuietNotStupid 1 min1 minute ago

Rumours that George Galloway is struggling against Nas Shah in Bradford. I like that. His smears against her were disgusting #GE2015

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:59 pm

Electoral Calculus, who pretty much got 2010 right, have this:

Con 280, Lab 274, Lib Dems 21, SNP, 52, UKIP 1, GRN 1

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:59 pm

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:BTW didn't Lousie Mensch say something sensible about the exit poll?

Yes. I just assumed it was a mis-print.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:59 pm

letsskiptotheleft wrote:Talk of Labour gaining Bradford West!

Wow.

Bloody hell. Where's the thanks button when you really need it. Kisses letsskip.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Thu 07 May, 2015 11:59 pm

Never thought I'd say it but thanks Louise for these Tweets

pk1 · Post by **pk1** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:00 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:BTW didn't Lousie Mensch say something sensible about the exit poll?

She did. I posted it earlier but it was akin to the fact that all polls showed a move toward Labour apart from this exit poll so it looked unlikely to be the most accurate one of 12.

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:00 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Never thought I'd say it but thanks Louise for these Tweets

Frankly I assumed she's been hacked.

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:01 am

May2015 Election ‏@May2015NS 2 hrs2 hours ago
Either the polling industry or the exit poll has been set back 20 years. Whoever's wrong will not be trusted for… a decade? Amazing.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:02 am

pk1 wrote:Blunkett

If we have lost this election, we have lost it from 2010, when in the six months after 201o we failed to nail the lie that Labour, the Labour government, had been responsible for the global meltdown, and everything that happened in the US, France, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Ireland, was the Labour government’s fault. It was such a nonsense. But the coalition got away with peddling that. I think we’ve got to think seriously about about avoiding a situation where we rush into something that might damage us in the long term.
Oh do fuck off ! How many of you tried to counter the lie ? Labour supporters country-wide were despairing of the fact you guys with the ear of the media, refused to counter the outrageous fucking lie so don't start griping now you fucking idiot !

I might have apologised for my atrocious language but I'm not in the least bit sorry so, sorry but no apology from me.

Applause!

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:02 am

Lib-Dem source saying Danny Alexander has lost according to Daily Mail.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:02 am

Thankses to pk1 & spacedone

rearofthestore · Post by **rearofthestore** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:03 am

Peter Jukes ‏@peterjukes 2m2 minutes ago

Local correspondents now predicting Edinburgh keeps THREE Labour seats. This is madness

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:03 am

Spacedone wrote:
PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Never thought I'd say it but thanks Louise for these Tweets
Frankly I assumed she's been hacked.

Nah, it's only 'Kippers who have their facetwitbookpalm accounts "hacked"

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:03 am

Here's more Rebecca.

Talk of Labour holding three Edinburgh seats. From local correspondents.

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:05 am

Good gods! Dimblebore just uttered the words "...the Daily Telegraph, a Conservative supporting paper"

Now you notice?

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:05 am

And thanks again to spacedone we always knew he would go but

[youtube]cBQogdDbcS4[/youtube]

Tish · Post by **Tish** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:05 am

SNP deputy leader on ITV just now saying exit poll has to be taken with a pinch of salt. They've had a great night, but its best to be cautious. He also said that under no circumstances would the SNP back the Tories, even if they offer them FFA.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:05 am

Frances Hinde ‏@FrancesHinde 3 mins3 minutes ago

Senior Lib Dem source says Danny Alexander has lost his seat.

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:07 am

Bradford West: Overview

Prediction: LAB hold

MP at 2010: Marsha Singh (LAB)
County/Area: West Yorkshire (Yorkshire)
Electorate: 62,519
Turnout: 64.9%

From electoral calculus - oversight (Galloway from 2012) or what?

Spacedone · Post by **Spacedone** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:07 am

Count in Rotherham delayed due to postal vote counting machine malfunction.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:08 am

Nicholas Pegg ‏@NicholasPegg 2 hrs2 hours ago

The BBC exit poll appears to have given everyone at the BBC such a massive erection that they're completely ignoring the YouGov poll.

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:08 am

FFS BBC, why weren't you asking Sun editor about the two-faced approach BEFORE the sodding election.

WelshIan · Post by **WelshIan** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:08 am

The Mirror is as distraught as us at that exit poll.

Their front page is black with '5 more damned years?'

Sorry, don't know how to put a picture in (http://www.mirror.co.uk/)

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:09 am

LucidTalk ‏@LucidTalk 7 mins7 minutes ago

Early indications from East Belfast, Tallies show DUP are ahead but could be tight in the end as strong Alliance areas still to come in.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:10 am

Tories 'quietly confident' of holding Nuneaton - that would be a bad one if true

Marginals turning against Labour it seems - the SNP fear factor looks like it may have worked if this is confirmed

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Fri 08 May, 2015 12:10 am

Bugger - can't find the Tweet now, but rumour has it Labour has kept three Edingburgh seats.