Friday 8th May 2015

[daydreamer]

Please can we hold back on ditching Ed talk until later in the day.

It just feels too raw just now.

Agree, I don't want a different leader.

Neither do I, at all. But I expect we'll have to face up to that. Just hope it's not a Blairite.

[RogerOThornhill]

Has Nigel Farage's Thanet constituency declared yet? (I'm avoiding any news outside of this site at present.) If Ukip's "flagship" takes a nose-dive it will probably be to the good (although I appreciate that it will have come too late to help Ed Miliband).

Yep, Farage got beat.

Whether he's formally stepped down or not I'm not sure.

Carswell is their only MP - locals clearly like him more than the locals liked Reckless.

[daydreamer]

Please can we hold back on ditching Ed talk until later in the day.

It just feels too raw just now.

Agree, I don't want a different leader.

Me neither. I want a five-year plan to change this bullshit situation we have now.

More thanks TC I'm full of thanks for you today. I agree with almost all of what you've written.

[TechnicalEphemera]

Vote share so far:

Tories - 36.8
Labour - 30.6
UKIP - 12.6
LibDem - 7.7
SNP - 4.8
Green - 3.7

I think that's within the margin of error for the polling companies?

No, it really isn't. Maybe for one poll but not for the numbers they took.

However it comes down to primarily UKIP and LibDem switchers getting the Tories over the line.

[PorFavor]

@ Paddington Bear

Hello, there.

I feel your pain. (I can't believe I just said that! But it will articulate my sentiments well enough for now.)

[daydreamer]

Please can we hold back on ditching Ed talk until later in the day.

It just feels too raw just now.

Agree, I don't want a different leader.

I suspect he'll resign.

Yep, cos he's man of integrity.

[TechnicalEphemera]

Has Nigel Farage's Thanet constituency declared yet? (I'm avoiding any news outside of this site at present.) If Ukip's "flagship" takes a nose-dive it will probably be to the good (although I appreciate that it will have come too late to help Ed Miliband).

Yep, Farage got beat.

Whether he's formally stepped down or not I'm not sure.

Carswell is their only MP - locals clearly like him more than the locals liked Reckless.

The upside of this, and it is a small upside, is that they are probably now finished as a party. Farage was charismatic, Carswell isn't.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Definitely. Please not's have the policies ditched too.

But some of those policies were clearly unacceptable to the great British unwashed.

Actually there is evidence that most of Labour's key policies this time round *were* popular.

Nope, what lost this was a giant irrational emotional spasm by the Scots and the (Tory and MSM prompted) reaction of rUK to it.

[PorFavor]

Has Nigel Farage's Thanet constituency declared yet? (I'm avoiding any news outside of this site at present.) If Ukip's "flagship" takes a nose-dive it will probably be to the good (although I appreciate that it will have come too late to help Ed Miliband).

Yep, Farage got beat.

Whether he's formally stepped down or not I'm not sure.

Carswell is their only MP - locals clearly like him more than the locals liked Reckless.

Thank you.

[howsillyofme1]

I hope we see Ed do himself justice in the resignation speech (assuming that this is imminent)

The fact is he is a good man. Intelligent, articulate, passionate and decent. Compare and contrast to that fraud in No. 10

The Brits are funny people and if he shows the humility and decency maybe some will start to expect more from Empty - and we all know they will be disappointed don't we

I think Anatoly made a good point about the LE (I made the same one earlier...) and if it is seen that the electorate were voting Against the SNP in England - rather than For the Tories, patience may wear thin in pretty short order

We can see how quickly things can change (looking North) if there is a good strong clear message - it is why I suggest the Labour Party focuses on a small number of points from Day 1- decided by Ed perhaps - and then bangs on about them continually. A new leader and a new direction can come behind if needed but we need to nail them the way they did Labour in 2010

A team is never more vulnerable than when just after scoring a goal (Labour in Scottish referendum....) and we should not wait to exploit it. I think the Tories have a sense of entitlement that will make them vulnerable; and the electorate may actually admire a robust response rather than introspection

I will also suggest that we may need to make some uncomfortable alliances...Salmond is a master troublemaker. If we can get him pissing out of our tenet and causing trouble for the Tories then we should

Cameron is an Empty Vessel and, for all his faults, Salmond is a master manipulator of politics - he will also have a passionate cohort behind him. No deals but do not waste energy fighting the SNP in Westminster - use some of those currently unemployed politicians to fight them is the SE of 2016

[ohsocynical]

@Anatoly

So now what, Indy Ref 2 which the SNP may win but which will destroy the Scottish economy?

I'm sorry if this offends anyone, but I am feeling vicious.

I hope it does. They have turned their backs on us.

I hope they suffer and turn on each other when it all goes pear shaped and the English government ignores them just as they have, and in the future, will be ignoring our suffering.

If I'm still alive when it happens I shall laugh.

[utopiandreams]

I have just now properly registered here.

I've been lurking after finding my way over via the Guardian comments ( for quite a while - I'm a shy reader...)

I'd like to thank you for the comfort you didn't know you were providing. I was one of the 30 or so 'guests' that stayed through the night.
My wife found me on the sofa this morning - and then again when she got back from taking our daughter to school. I had my knees under my chin and tears running down my face. I'm a hairy bloke - I should be doing something but I really don't know what I can do... I'm frustrated and angry.

My daughter is six - her uniform is either red or blue. She insisted on wearing red today.

Luckier than some though - I'm in Sheffield Heeley, a 'safe' Labour seat. So I won't have to walk out of my door and be surrounded by aliens.

Thanks again

May I thank you for your perusal, Paddington. I too lurked for some considerable time before signing up.

[StephenDolan]

Definitely. Please not's have the policies ditched too.

But some of those policies were clearly unacceptable to the great British unwashed.

I'm not sure they were.

Propped up by the SNP
He's wierd
They caused the crash

Repeated ad infinitum.

[AnatolyKasparov]

I get the impression, just to make things worse, that Labour missed out on considerably more seats by tiny margins than it won?

Anybody have the actual figures yet?

[howsillyofme1]

PS Labour are in a much better position policy wise than in 2010 - many of them were in the right area and we should not just ditch them all.

[tinyclanger2]

Hi Paddington B. The place has kept me going to.

[StephenDolan]

John Reid. Fuck off. Just fuck right off.

[utopiandreams]

I may just shut up now and try to gather my thoughts. In what was once a marginal has now delivered a Tory MP with an increased majority of nearly two to one and I'm not aware that she has actually achieved anything for the area.

Edit: I suppose I should add as an MP since she was once on the council I believe.

[howsillyofme1]

PPS John Reid and all the old has-beens should be told to fuck off (pardon my French)

The party should cut the ties to these - remove the whips in the HoL if necessary - a return to Blair and Tory Lite is not the way we should go

Twat

[daydreamer]

I hope this isn't a post-mortem (if it is apologies). I think that the problem is not Labour - and certainly not Ed - but the fact that the political landscape has changed so much. We need to adapt to that. Grassroots engagement, the single issue approach. And not dividing ourselves. We need all of us non-Tories to form a strong anti-bastard coalition to fight this strategically, rather than continue to compete with each other.

One of the notable results last night was Gloria de Piero in Ashfield, who was defending a majority of 192 and won a majority of 8820 this time around; Oliver Coppard reduced Clegg's majority from 15284 to 2353. They both did the same thing, put the hours in, put the footwork in .... that has to be the focus, not 4 million conversations, but 40, 50, 60 million over the next few years.

Agree, where the ground work has been put in some results have held or improved. We need more conversations, and we need to build from the grass-roots up. I rather suspect though, that it'll be a swing to the right and more getting in bed with Murdock and the City. Because with Ed gone, that's what I can see happening. Or indeed, the party doing what it usually does after a defeat, ripping itself apart.

[PorFavor]

John Reid. Fuck off. Just fuck right off.

I don't know what he's said - but I can make an informed guess. So, thank you.

[ohsocynical]

And now I've turned into a 'blamer' too.

[daydreamer]

Oh, had missed that gem from Hugo earlier. Umunna and Cooper especially are part of the problem, not the solution.

(the fact they are so bigged up by the MSM should warn you off by itself - lets remember now that these are the same people that assured us Jim Murphy would turn the tide for Labour in Scotland; maybe the "outsider" Findlay might have got us 0 MPs there rather than 1, but then again maybe not)

Agree, they are part of the problem and need to go. But, you'll not convince Hugo of that, as he's a Blairite.

[AngryAsWell]

@Anatoly

So now what, Indy Ref 2 which the SNP may win but which will destroy the Scottish economy?

I'm sorry if this offends anyone, but I am feeling vicious.

I hope it does. They have turned their backs on us.

I hope they suffer and turn on each other when it all goes pear shaped and the English government ignores them just as they have, and in the future, will be ignoring our suffering.

If I'm still alive when it happens I shall laugh.

Agree with some sadness

[daydreamer]

The failure here is of Labour to beat the Conservatives … Labour has barely increased the share of the vote.

Sturgeon. It's all Labour's fault.
I know you here predicted it, but Jesus wept.

Bugger off, you Tartan Tory bit*h!

I'd better be careful, as I'll probably get myself banned/modded. But, I'm just so angry and despairing.

[daydreamer]

So Anatoly and Hugo - what's a realistic outlook for maximising any potential advantage of the current situation (slimness of Tory majority, etc), while minimising any long-term irreverisble (eg: Brexit) damage of the Tory/SNP partnership made in hell.

I am afraid I only have downsides.

First the Tories can get through boundary changes: making victory even harder.

Second they can, at a minimum, get through the Smith Commission reforms, excluding Scottish votes in rest of UK matters where devolved.

It really matters whether the majority is 2 or 8.

If it is 2, we can stop things like repeal of the Human Rights Act.

If not, not.

Yep agree, there are only downsides

[pk1]

Welcome Paddington Bear. I just wish we could provide a better atmosphere because we are usually a cheery bunch, despite our (sometime) disagreements.

[TechnicalEphemera]

Definitely. Please not's have the policies ditched too.

But some of those policies were clearly unacceptable to the great British unwashed.

Actually there is evidence that most of Labour's key policies this time round *were* popular.

Nope, what lost this was a giant irrational emotional spasm by the Scots and the (Tory and MSM prompted) reaction of rUK to it.

Hard to square it isn't it. Almost Labours entire policy platform was popular and yet voters opted for the polar opposite.

The attack on non Doms and ZHC has to remain, screw business attitudes to that. Labour has to represent the working class (by which I mean anybody on low pay and shit conditions). If it doesn't do that it is pointless.

Similarly taxes on the rich have to remain. Labour has to tackle the scourge of unearned income totally avoiding tax.

The rest is flexible, but opportunities will present themselves. Under the Tories a lot of people are going to get poorer, their anger needs to be exploited. However Labour also needs to find policies to appeal to the middle classes and the As/Bs. Why because these people vote.

[pk1]

I don't always agree with Mark Ferguson but his email this morning ended with something I can agree with:

The truly shocking part of this election debacle was that the Labour Party still believed until the last moment that victory (of sorts) was at hand. We were caught with our electoral pants down.

Whilst retaking Bradford West was a rare high point in a dire night, the results as a whole were reminiscent of that seat’s 2012 by-election. We had the canvass returns. We had done the work we felt was required of us. And yet the tidal wave of public opinion washed us away – blindsided – anyway. That can’t be allowed to happen again. Only by being firmly rooted in communities and campaigning from that position can the Labour Party rise again from the ground up. It will take time. It will mean rethinking some policy, organisational and messaging shibboleths. And here’s the worst part – it may be a long road back. But it’s the road we need to take.

Following that road may be best served by having a period of stability - and, if possible, calm - rather than rushing into a noisy and combative leadership contest that produces much heat but little illumination.

We will know one way or another in the coming hours. As the shock wears off. As the exhaustions kicks in all over again. As the reality sinks in. But never forget this moment. How you felt now after this appalling night at the polls. It will remind you next time complacency kicks in – and it may drive the party to what comes next.

With my best on the difficult morning

[daydreamer]

Banks, bookies, estate agents, seeing their share price rallying.

But, of course.

[TheGrimSqueaker]

I note Farage has not "quit within 10 minutes" as promised. Quelle surprise.

The really important part of the Thanet South result was Al Murray coming sixth (out of eleven candidates), with a respectable 318 votes; so not everybody in Thanet is humourless then.

[NonOxCol]

Hell's fecking bells, I've just realised that Anna Soubry (nextdoor constituency) increased her majority by a similar percentage to Candy Crush Man!

We had one of those SNP pickpocket posters in a very prominent place half a mile from where I live. I honestly used to pass it thinking, "what a total load of irrelevant scaremongering shite, who here cares about this, you can't even get the leader right, if this is the best you can do in a bellwether marginal you've got no chance at all".

But way back then, two days ago, I'd deluded myself that Britain was better than it actually was.

[LadyCentauria]

I have just now properly registered here.

I've been lurking after finding my way over via the Guardian comments ( for quite a while - I'm a shy reader...)

I'd like to thank you for the comfort you didn't know you were providing. I was one of the 30 or so 'guests' that stayed through the night.
My wife found me on the sofa this morning - and then again when she got back from taking our daughter to school. I had my knees under my chin and tears running down my face. I'm a hairy bloke - I should be doing something but I really don't know what I can do... I'm frustrated and angry.

My daughter is six - her uniform is either red or blue. She insisted on wearing red today.

Luckier than some though - I'm in Sheffield Heeley, a 'safe' Labour seat. So I won't have to walk out of my door and be surrounded by aliens.

Thanks again

Thank you, @Paddington Bear, and I wish we could be formally welcoming you here on a day that brought us all more cheer. I've often wondered who the night-shift guests were – and now we know that one of them is you. Good on your lass for insisting on wearing red today. She is a big part of our future and I wish her the best – that she be the best she can be. I'm also so glad that Sheffield Heeley is still 'safe' – long may that continue! Now, cry all you need but help yourself to free drinks and food in our fully subsidised bar, cafe, and kitchen.

We've got everything you could wish for and today's special is – wait for it – jam roly-poly with custard or clotted-cream, because everybody needs a wee bit comfort food. And, so as not to disappoint those who appreciate the efforts that ErnstRemarx and I (his humble apprentice) make to bring you a modern british cuisine, as an alternative we have marmite and lemon-curd roly-poly with a hot puréed-brussels-sprout sauce.

Also, free hugs and love

[StephenDolan]

66% turnout. Depressingly low.

[rustinpeace]

Well, well, well... a Conservative majority. A Conservative majority. A dream come true. I'm so happy I can barely type. Several of you now need to look over your posts of the last five years and have a word with yourselves. In your own time.

After five long years of shrieking and crowing incessantly on CiF and in to this echo chamber about 'when we kick those
evil Tories out in 2015', it would appear that your beloved Labour party has failed. And boy have you failed.

I took today off work to enjoy the coverage and have taken great pleasure in watching each individual nail being hammered
in to Labour's coffin. Five years of bleating, only to see your dreams of another 'something for nothing' sponger
enabling, benefit junkie, public-sector-waste-loving Labour government go down in flames.

It's been highly amusing seeing my name pop up regularly over here in recent months. However, I figured I'd bide my time
and return today of all days. I left CiF after taking a three month trial with The Times and was instantly blown away by
both the standard of journalism and the vastly superior comments section. Also, I discovered Twitter, which has been truly
revelationary.

I kept a careful eye on CiF & FTN however. Whilst I opted to stop posting on CiF, I've seen poor old Squeaks asserting as
absolute fact that I work for The Guardian (wrong), have connections to Guido Fawkes (wrong again), operate various
accounts on CiF (still wrong) and work for the Conservative Party (also wrong, although I am a party member and did put in
a solid 16 hour volunteering stint yesterday). At one point last week he thought I was operating five accounts (yep...
wrong). He's seeing me wherever he looks. Frightening.

But, here we are. Those of you who spend your entire lives on here calculating how much of other people's money you've
decided you're entitled to are in for a nasty shock. The people of Britain have spoken and, beautifully, they have
rejected the wretched, failed policies of the Left once and for all. It's time for a dizzying and timely array of cuts - tax cuts,
welfare cuts and yes, public sector cuts. Time to bring the monolithic nightmare that is the NHS to heel and to open those
private sector floodgates immediately. I may return to CiF to conduct the lefty orchestra on occasion, to whip you all up
in to a hysterical frenzy at times of particularly delicious Conservative policymaking, but for the most part I'll be
leaving you to continue bleating pointlessly in to your echo chamber. We now also get to enjoy the marvellous spectacle of
Labour tearing what's left of itself to shreds in a leadership contest. It's always bloody and Miliband's political demise looks like it won't disappoint.

The temptation is to really rub your faces in to what is a catastrophic Labour failure, worse than the polls could ever
have suggested. However I'd rather leave on a positive. What we will now have is a stable, growing economy, with a strong
and confident government behind it. The chances for us all to make the most of this are myriad. There's much to look
forward to. The next five years could be something truly special for this wonderful country; let's all share in it.

I'd love to stay and chat, but I have some champagne to open and at least five more years of Conservative government to
enjoy. So long, lefties. 1,825 days. You're going to love it.

Your pal,
Rusty

[pk1]

Hi Rusty, so you finally have the bollocks to register - even if it was to only gloat.

Well, fuck you pal, I'm sure I'm not alone in not wanting you here but we as a community are a million times better than you & your sort so come in & join the chat.

[rebeccariots2]

Morning all. Welcome to paddington bear - despite the shellshock. I really would like to be able to wake up and say 'what sort of cheese what that?' but know from the leaden weight in my guts I can't - I've got to somehow find a way of adjusting to this shock and coming through it.

Can anyone point me to any other - non vitriolic - discussions of what happened to the left vote, the young vote etc? I'd like to see what Green supporter voices are saying in particular. There has to be a way of building something more consolidated and strategic ... the full on attacks on Labour from every side will ensure no one gets what they want and need if it carries on.

[daydreamer]

Looks like Miliband is about to resign.
What a terrible waste.

[TechnicalEphemera]

See you Rusty,

Try not to trip over that Euro referendum on the way out.

[LadyCentauria]

Farage has resigned, will take the summer off, then decide whether or not to put his name forward for the Leadership Election which will be held in September...

[WelshIan]

Rusty, hope you stay and defend the Tory record, if you can.

edited:
No need for my first reply.

[AnatolyKasparov]

I don't always agree with Mark Ferguson but his email this morning ended with something I can agree with:

The truly shocking part of this election debacle was that the Labour Party still believed until the last moment that victory (of sorts) was at hand. We were caught with our electoral pants down.

Whilst retaking Bradford West was a rare high point in a dire night, the results as a whole were reminiscent of that seat’s 2012 by-election. We had the canvass returns. We had done the work we felt was required of us. And yet the tidal wave of public opinion washed us away – blindsided – anyway. That can’t be allowed to happen again. Only by being firmly rooted in communities and campaigning from that position can the Labour Party rise again from the ground up. It will take time. It will mean rethinking some policy, organisational and messaging shibboleths. And here’s the worst part – it may be a long road back. But it’s the road we need to take.

Following that road may be best served by having a period of stability - and, if possible, calm - rather than rushing into a noisy and combative leadership contest that produces much heat but little illumination.

We will know one way or another in the coming hours. As the shock wears off. As the exhaustions kicks in all over again. As the reality sinks in. But never forget this moment. How you felt now after this appalling night at the polls. It will remind you next time complacency kicks in – and it may drive the party to what comes next.

With my best on the difficult morning

Yep, that's the thing - in 1992 everybody involved (on all sides) could feel a swing to the Tories in the last 48 hours even if the polls didn't pick it up totally.

This time round, the last polls actually showed a small move to *Labour* - literally nobody saw what was coming, even the most insanely optimistic Tories were saying c300 seats. There was a widespread belief the SNP would under-perform as well, in fact the Scottish polls were the only ones that were right

This is a systemic polling failure that is being compared to some with Alberta in 2012.

If its any comfort, earlier this week the polls there *were* right and the Tory government there got smashed

[citizenJA]

Have the Tories stolen this election? Have they cheated?

They told an awful lot of lies.

The one good thing is that they can't say that they're clearing up anyone's mess other than their own.

It's clear these Tories can say whatever the hell they like. Anything & everything. The mess will always be someone else's fault. And I guess a lot of people will believe it.

[ephemerid]

Well, well, well... a Conservative majority. A Conservative majority. A dream come true. I'm so happy I can barely type. Several of you now need to look over your posts of the last five years and have a word with yourselves. In your own time.
Etc.etc.etc.etc.
I'd love to stay and chat, but I have some champagne to open and at least five more years of Conservative government to
enjoy. So long, lefties. 1,825 days. You're going to love it.

Your pal,
Rusty

Dear Rusty,

FUCK RIGHT OFF.

Your pal, Ephie

[daydreamer]

I don't think "disenfrachisement" has much to do with it, tbh.

Quite a bit of the polling error is that they all overestimated the turnout, sometimes considerably so. Forget the exit poll, when I saw in the first actual result that turnout was up just 1% on 2010 I feared the worst (despite the reasonable pro-Labour swing)

We know that the hardcore Tory support will always turn out. Labour and UKIP especially relied on previous non-voters showing up this time - it seems that quite a few didn't. And the lesson there is that quite a few "lefties" need to spend the next 5 years less dicking about on social media, and more organising and getting others organised.

Just 1% more! That of course, helps the Tories. We need to change this culture on the left (and of young people) of voters staying at home and not voting, as well as not split our vote.

[pk1]

Tessa Munt's seat is a Con gain

[citizenJA]

I don't always agree with Mark Ferguson but his email this morning ended with something I can agree with:

The truly shocking part of this election debacle was that the Labour Party still believed until the last moment that victory (of sorts) was at hand. We were caught with our electoral pants down.

Whilst retaking Bradford West was a rare high point in a dire night, the results as a whole were reminiscent of that seat’s 2012 by-election. We had the canvass returns. We had done the work we felt was required of us. And yet the tidal wave of public opinion washed us away – blindsided – anyway. That can’t be allowed to happen again. Only by being firmly rooted in communities and campaigning from that position can the Labour Party rise again from the ground up. It will take time. It will mean rethinking some policy, organisational and messaging shibboleths. And here’s the worst part – it may be a long road back. But it’s the road we need to take.

Following that road may be best served by having a period of stability - and, if possible, calm - rather than rushing into a noisy and combative leadership contest that produces much heat but little illumination.

We will know one way or another in the coming hours. As the shock wears off. As the exhaustions kicks in all over again. As the reality sinks in. But never forget this moment. How you felt now after this appalling night at the polls. It will remind you next time complacency kicks in – and it may drive the party to what comes next.

With my best on the difficult morning

Yep, that's the thing - in 1992 everybody involved (on all sides) could feel a swing to the Tories in the last 48 hours even if the polls didn't pick it up totally.

This time round, the last polls actually showed a small move to *Labour* - literally nobody saw what was coming, even the most insanely optimistic Tories were saying c300 seats. There was a widespread belief the SNP would under-perform as well, in fact the Scottish polls were the only ones that were right

This is a systemic polling failure that is being compared to some with Alberta in 2012.

If its any comfort, earlier this week the polls there *were* right and the Tory government there got smashed

Polls are fucking useless or Tories stole this election.

[RogerOThornhill]

Banks, bookies, estate agents, seeing their share price rallying.

But, of course.

There's going to be an awful lot of private health and education companies rubbing their hands at what is going to come their way. There's several ways to skin a cat - outsourcing will go ahead leaving a shell of a 'public sector' in place to con people that it's still the same.

NB I've just seen a post which I'm going to ignore.

Nasty little shit come to gloat - most unedifying. Only one thing worse than a bad loser is a bad winner...

[daydreamer]

5 years ago I didn't see the BBC's swing to the right coming. Social media is all the left can fight back with now. And the right can pay to astroturf that. Councils will get the blame for cuts. It's going to be tricky for sure.

Yeah, the task just became even more difficult. Have some thanks.

[AnatolyKasparov]

66% turnout. Depressingly low.

Yep, much lower than *all* pollsters were predicting - and surely a major reason for their failure.

Put simply their vote turned out, ours didn't