Tuesday 16th September 2014

[JackPranker]

TE: Let me ask you this: what are you certain of happening in 2015 if there's a no vote?

[JackPranker]

I admired Brown in the past for being an honest man. Attributing "Kim Yong Il" as an advisor to Salmond is eroding that rapidly. If both sides are serious about keeping this cordial then rhetoric should be being condemned by campaign leaders, not perpetuated.

I saw a snide comment from Salmond the other day about Labour, so it isn't like he is working that hard to be cordial.

But glad we agree on the Guardian Beta being crap, and whatever happens on Thursday I sincerely wish for Mrs Pranker, yourself & baby [or rather toddler] Pranker to thrive in the country you love.

Thanks, Yahyah, et tu.

The country you refer to is currently England.

[HindleA]

Government to revisit its decision to abolish the Local Welfare Provision Fund

http://www.24dash.com/news/central_gove ... um=twitter" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[yahyah]

I admired Brown in the past for being an honest man. Attributing "Kim Yong Il" as an advisor to Salmond is eroding that rapidly. If both sides are serious about keeping this cordial then rhetoric should be being condemned by campaign leaders, not perpetuated.

I saw a snide comment from Salmond the other day about Labour, so it isn't like he is working that hard to be cordial.

But glad we agree on the Guardian Beta being crap, and whatever happens on Thursday I sincerely wish for Mrs Pranker, yourself & baby [or rather toddler] Pranker to thrive in the country you love.

Thanks, Yahyah, et tu.

The country you refer to is currently England.

Shows just how off the station I can be.

[JackPranker]

Shows just how off the station I can be.

It may be my rabid cybernationalism that led you there!

[Eric_WLothian]

The Yes campaigns big weapon has been the number of A-listers - Cummings, Cox, Welsh et al - who will always attract attention and have definitely fallen into the 'zealot' camp; but then, they don't have to live with the consequences, do they?

I wonder how much, if any, influence these people actually have - and, of course, they're not confined to the 'yes' side. Remember JK Rowling, David Bowie, John Barrowman and... wait for it... David Beckham have all come out in favour of 'no'.
Actors are employed to deliver other peoples words, so should be convincing
Incidentally, Brian Cox was in favour of sharing the BBC. Keeping an eye on future job opportunities perhaps? (Or maybe I'm just getting too cynical).

[yahyah]

I don't class you as a cybernat Jack, you are far too reasonable.

[ohsocynical]

Then it's a shame that he is only speaking to campaigners and not voters. How is he expecting to change "yes" voters minds?

I agree with you there, don't know what the reason for him not addressing crowds is, security, as a former PM, possibly but doubtful..

At least Blair hasn't got involved, grateful for small mercies eh?!

I expect the "no" campaign are not suicidal. It's bad enough they have Cameron and Clegg on their side!

It's been a problem for BT from the start. The heavy hitters have only recently started to engage, but when they do they engage with invited groups rather than soap-boxing. Jim Murphy did his 100 days, but from the press generated it would appear that even he travelled with his audience on the same bus!

Compare that to the "Yes" grass-roots campaigning, it has seemed to me that one side looks engaged and the other side looks aloof - a continuation of an attitude that has, in part, brought this situation about. For those hoping for a "no" vote, they may be relying on the fear of the unknown being a greater pull than the hope of change.

I'm not sure that's right...On Twitter, at least on the links I follow, there has been a lot of grass root Labour groups backing the No vote, knocking on doors....

[ohsocynical]

I admired Brown in the past for being an honest man. Attributing "Kim Yong Il" as an advisor to Salmond is eroding that rapidly. If both sides are serious about keeping this cordial then rhetoric should be being condemned by campaign leaders, not perpetuated.

Haven't heard the speech, but I assume that was a joke? And tbf GB's use of humour has always been somewhat clunky

Read somewhere recently, that the North Korean squirt said he backed the Yes vote. So Brown was right I guess.

[letsskiptotheleft]

I don't class you as a cybernat Jack, you are far too reasonable.

Seconded.

[55DegreesNorth]

Oh...

Rotherham PCC Shaun Wright resigns following abuse scandal. More details to follow…

What took him so long I wonder?

Unless there's something coming out that we haven't yet heard about.

Probably a good day to bury bad screws.

[AngryAsWell]

TE: Let me ask you this: what are you certain of happening in 2015 if there's a no vote?

Not TE, but for me?
2015 - A Labour Landslide

[JackPranker]

Oh...

Rotherham PCC Shaun Wright resigns following abuse scandal. More details to follow…

What took him so long I wonder?

Unless there's something coming out that we haven't yet heard about.

Probably a good day to bury bad screws.

Ouch! Well done, sir.

Vaz saying it's not enough. No shit, Keith!

[Eric_WLothian]

I expect the "no" campaign are not suicidal. It's bad enough they have Cameron and Clegg on their side!

Agreed, it's difficult when you have such a broad spectrum of agreement. Much easier when there's nobody else of any consequence on your side.

For those hoping for a "no" vote, they may be relying on the fear of the unknown being a greater pull than the hope of change.

On the other hand, maybe those hoping for a 'no' vote are relying on the fear of the obvious consequences of a 'yes' vote. Change for change's sake is rarely a good idea. Change is only a good idea when it's for the better.

[TheGrimSqueaker]

I wonder how much, if any, influence these people actually have - and, of course, they're not confined to the 'yes' side. Remember JK Rowling, David Bowie, John Barrowman and... wait for it... David Beckham have all come out in favour of 'no'.

How much influence do they have? Difficult to gauge, but Welsh certainly seems to be pretty influential, I know I've had several people giving me links to some of his writings on the subject, saying that summed up their own feelings perfectly; so he is lauded by many as "The Voice of the True Scotsman", despite living in the USA, yet Rowling has been attacked even though she lives in Edinburgh and has pumped very considerable amounts of money into the Scottish economy and charity scene.

[seeingclearly]

If you have 10 minutes to spare, read this, explains a lot about the mind-set within the ''Yes'' brigade, not everyone obviously, but there are recognisable traits that we have all seen in this campaign.

http://wakeupscotland.wordpress.com/201 ... ged-to-no/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Morning by the way..

Had my own personal experience of this today, it's like being steamrollered. It doesn't endear, tbh.

[JackPranker]

I expect the "no" campaign are not suicidal. It's bad enough they have Cameron and Clegg on their side!

Agreed, it's difficult when you have such a broad spectrum of agreement. Much easier when there's nobody else of any consequence on your side.

For those hoping for a "no" vote, they may be relying on the fear of the unknown being a greater pull than the hope of change.

On the other hand, maybe those hoping for a 'no' vote are relying on the fear of the obvious consequences of a 'yes' vote. Change for change's sake is rarely a good idea. Change is only a good idea when it's for the better.

These consequences for a yes vote are obvious to everybody on both sides of the campaign divide - it's just they disagree with what they are. Equally true for a "no" as it appears (according to BT anyway) that negotiations will take place in either event.

[JackPranker]

TE: Let me ask you this: what are you certain of happening in 2015 if there's a no vote?

Not TE, but for me?
2015 - A Labour Landslide

We can but hope.

[Eric_WLothian]

I expect the "no" campaign are not suicidal. It's bad enough they have Cameron and Clegg on their side!

Agreed, it's difficult when you have such a broad spectrum of agreement. Much easier when there's nobody else of any consequence on your side.

For those hoping for a "no" vote, they may be relying on the fear of the unknown being a greater pull than the hope of change.

On the other hand, maybe those hoping for a 'no' vote are relying on the fear of the obvious consequences of a 'yes' vote. Change for change's sake is rarely a good idea. Change is only a good idea when it's for the better.

These consequences for a yes vote are obvious to everybody on both sides of the campaign divide - it's just they disagree with what they are. Equally true for a "no" as it appears (according to BT anyway) that negotiations will take place in either event.

Different negotiations though - no EU negotiations, no defence carve-up negotiations, no CU negotiations (not that the latter will take more than 5 minutes) in the case of a 'no' vote.

[ohsocynical]

Idly wondered if those that had a postal vote and got it away early, are wishing they'd waited so they could change their vote.

I can't think of anything worse!

[JackPranker]

Eric:

I happen to agree with you on the currency union issue. I can't see what's in it for the UK to enter into a formal union with Scotland if the alternative is sterlingisation. Where's the negative for the Bank of England there?

I also don't view the threat of walking away from any debt as credible, however what that level of debt will be is entirely up for negotiation. I cannot see that there is anything that could be used as a red line to allow an independent Scotland to walk away with no liabilities (although I assume that those liabilities would have to be reissued as the Treasury has already committed to honour existing debt).

In short, no one is answering those questions.

[ohsocynical]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ ... rally.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Mmm....Doesn't sound so good at first, until you hear the main thrust of the guys protest is about wanting a Yes vote because of ATOS and Danny Alexanders part in it....

[StephenDolan]

All the celebrities giving their opinion. How many of them are able to vote Thursday? Should be the first question they're asked.


I'm glad to see the Tax Payers Alliance have managed to find a spokesperson about this
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/pers ... ilies.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[TechnicalEphemera]

TE: Let me ask you this: what are you certain of happening in 2015 if there's a no vote?

Scotland will continue to be a member of the EU.
Scotland will continue to have a sovereign currency backed by a central bank (the pound).
Scotland can continue to print pound notes.
Scotland will have some more tax raising powers.
Scotland will continue to send MPs to Westminster, the West Lothian question will not be resolved, for all the reasons we know about today.
Scotland will not face trade barriers in dealing with the EU.
Scottish banks and businesses will stay in Scotland.
Money with be quietly moved back over the border.
Scotland will be stuck with Trident and Westminster government will have an impact on certain policy areas (either directly or indirectly).
There will be an election in May, resulting in a Labour government or Labour Lib Dem coalition.
Cameron will resign.
Boris will not become Tory leader.

[Eric_WLothian]

Eric:

I happen to agree with you on the currency union issue. I can't see what's in it for the UK to enter into a formal union with Scotland if the alternative is sterlingisation. Where's the negative for the Bank of England there?

I also don't view the threat of walking away from any debt as credible, however what that level of debt will be is entirely up for negotiation. I cannot see that there is anything that could be used as a red line to allow an independent Scotland to walk away with no liabilities (although I assume that those liabilities would have to be reissued as the Treasury has already committed to honour existing debt).

In short, no one is answering those questions.

I could be wrong, but as I understand it, the fact that the Treasury agreed to honour existing debts just means that Scotland would owe the rUK, rather than the original creditors. As you say, the apportioning of debt (and assets) would be a matter for negotiation.

[JackPranker]

Eric:

I happen to agree with you on the currency union issue. I can't see what's in it for the UK to enter into a formal union with Scotland if the alternative is sterlingisation. Where's the negative for the Bank of England there?

I also don't view the threat of walking away from any debt as credible, however what that level of debt will be is entirely up for negotiation. I cannot see that there is anything that could be used as a red line to allow an independent Scotland to walk away with no liabilities (although I assume that those liabilities would have to be reissued as the Treasury has already committed to honour existing debt).

In short, no one is answering those questions.

I could be wrong, but as I understand it, the fact that the Treasury agreed to honour existing debts just means that Scotland would owe the rUK, rather than the original creditors. As you say, the apportioning of debt (and assets) would be a matter for negotiation.

As pensions are not paid out of a pot but through existing taxation, it does leave the matter up for grabs. Notionally Scots pensioners have paid national insurance and expect a state pension, whoever pays it. Somewhat archly an ageing population (as has been trumpeted as a problem) is not so much of an issue for Scots as it is for the rest of the UK. It must be the Buckie and Irn Bru diet.

[minch]

Perhaps someone has mentioned this before but is Clegg OK to sign a pledge for a policy which hasn't been voted for in their conference?

[TheGrimSqueaker]

Perhaps someone has mentioned this before but is Clegg OK to sign a pledge for a policy which hasn't been voted for in their conference?

Well, he usually ignores the results of the votes at Conference anyway (they've been voting against Bedroom Tax for a couple of years now) so it would be in keeping.

[minch]

Perhaps someone has mentioned this before but is Clegg OK to sign a pledge for a policy which hasn't been voted for in their conference?

Well, he usually ignores the results of the votes at Conference anyway (they've been voting against Bedroom Tax for a couple of years now) so it would be in keeping.

I agree. It seems strange calling it a pledge after the last pledge Clegg made was so effective!

[Eric_WLothian]

Eric:

I happen to agree with you on the currency union issue. I can't see what's in it for the UK to enter into a formal union with Scotland if the alternative is sterlingisation. Where's the negative for the Bank of England there?

I also don't view the threat of walking away from any debt as credible, however what that level of debt will be is entirely up for negotiation. I cannot see that there is anything that could be used as a red line to allow an independent Scotland to walk away with no liabilities (although I assume that those liabilities would have to be reissued as the Treasury has already committed to honour existing debt).

In short, no one is answering those questions.

I could be wrong, but as I understand it, the fact that the Treasury agreed to honour existing debts just means that Scotland would owe the rUK, rather than the original creditors. As you say, the apportioning of debt (and assets) would be a matter for negotiation.

As pensions are not paid out of a pot but through existing taxation, it does leave the matter up for grabs. Notionally Scots pensioners have paid national insurance and expect a state pension, whoever pays it. Somewhat archly an ageing population (as has been trumpeted as a problem) is not so much of an issue for Scots as it is for the rest of the UK. It must be the Buckie and Irn Bru diet.

That also applies to Civil Service and some other public sector pensions.
On the face of it, it seems fairly simple to transfer assets from rUK to Scotland and for Scotland to pay the pensions (or vice versa). But what about the pensioners who choose to become expat rUK citizens rather than Scottish citizens? If the referendum is close, there could be a substantial number. Will we be given a choice post-yes and pre-independence?
If there's a 'yes' vote, it's going to get very messy!

[TheGrimSqueaker]

Perhaps someone has mentioned this before but is Clegg OK to sign a pledge for a policy which hasn't been voted for in their conference?

Well, he usually ignores the results of the votes at Conference anyway (they've been voting against Bedroom Tax for a couple of years now) so it would be in keeping.

I agree. It seems strange calling it a pledge after the last pledge Clegg made was so effective!

The only Pledge he really believes in is the stuff his cleaning lady uses on the woodwork.

[ephemerid]

If you have 10 minutes to spare, read this, explains a lot about the mind-set within the ''Yes'' brigade, not everyone obviously, but there are recognisable traits that we have all seen in this campaign.

http://wakeupscotland.wordpress.com/201 ... ged-to-no/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Morning by the way..

Had my own personal experience of this today, it's like being steamrollered. It doesn't endear, tbh.

Indeed. As have I.

And both sides are as bad as each other in that respect. I've had it from both.

There have been exaggerations and stroppiness on both sides; too much unreasonable hope on one side, and way too many empty threats on the other.
The Yes campaign started off in a civilised fashion and is getting more strident by the day; the No campaign has been a last-minute farce worthy of Frayn.

With the sort of politics we have in the UK, with some of the personalities involved, and with a media obsessed with soundbites, it was inevitable that things would get very heated the closer we come to the vote.

Whilst that does not excuse some of the more egregious examples of personal insult - from both sides - that I've seen on CIF and elsewhere, it's understandable when passions are running so high.

I haven't commented here for a few days for that very reason - I feel, as I did with Labour's failure to oppose some of the worst excesses in this government's benefits policies (and if you recall, the arguments then caused some much-loved contributors to leave FTN), that the various people here getting annoyed/upset about nationalistic fervour should think about how they post.

Every time you point a finger, there's another three pointing back at you.

[ohsocynical]

All the celebrities giving their opinion. How many of them are able to vote Thursday? Should be the first question they're asked.


I'm glad to see the Tax Payers Alliance have managed to find a spokesperson about this
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/pers ... ilies.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I can't imagine deciding who or what to vote for on the say-so of a celebrity.

I like Roger Moore and enjoy listening to him, but I wouldn't vote Conservative [he's one] just because he said to.

[TheGrimSqueaker]

I haven't commented here for a few days for that very reason - I feel, as I did with Labour's failure to oppose some of the worst excesses in this government's benefits policies (and if you recall, the arguments then caused some much-loved contributors to leave FTN), that the various people here getting annoyed/upset about nationalistic fervour should think about how they post.

Every time you point a finger, there's another three pointing back at you.

To be honest Ephe, that is why I'm not posting on Twitter at the moment. If you say anything that doesn't follow the party line you are mobbed, so you either have to watch what you say very carefully or say nothing at all; whichever way you slice it that is censorship, and it is saddening me utterly.

If anything I've said here has offended you I am truly sorry (actually mortified would be nearer the truth), but please don't be silent, call me out on it; I'd hate to think I'd censored you in the same way I have been, and I've got fairly broad shoulder (and a very broad beergut).

[gilsey]

the various people here getting annoyed/upset about nationalistic fervour should think about how they post.

I've seen very little antagonism within the Haven, it is very much the exception, and I've appreciated the debate.

It would be very dull here if we were always in perfect agreement.

[Eric_WLothian]

How odd:

ONLINE bookmaker Betfair is paying out to customers who have backed a ‘No’ vote in this week’s Scottish independence referendum, two days before the polls open.

Do they know something we don't?

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/t ... -1-3543402

[JackPranker]

I haven't commented here for a few days for that very reason - I feel, as I did with Labour's failure to oppose some of the worst excesses in this government's benefits policies (and if you recall, the arguments then caused some much-loved contributors to leave FTN), that the various people here getting annoyed/upset about nationalistic fervour should think about how they post.

Every time you point a finger, there's another three pointing back at you.

Indeed. I've felt compelled to point out holes in certain arguments (always a dangerous thing to do, I know) but that's attracted some pretty nasty commentary from both sides of the aisle. As with everything in politics, moderates are sidelined when passions run high. Let's hope that when the dust settles there aren't too many bodies lying around.

[Eric_WLothian]

the various people here getting annoyed/upset about nationalistic fervour should think about how they post.

I've seen very little antagonism within the Haven, it is very much the exception, and I've appreciated the debate.

It would be very dull here if we were always in perfect agreement.

Agreed - I'm certainly not annoyed or upset that others have different views to my own. Apologies if any of my posts suggest otherwise.

[JackPranker]

Group hug?

[ohsocynical]

Group hug?

Good idea. On three. One, Two

[JackPranker]

Group hug?

Good idea. On three. One, Two

[ohsocynical]

http://politicalscrapbook.net/2014/09/l ... h-bed-tax/

LibDems whingiing again.

[Rebecca]

Well, he usually ignores the results of the votes at Conference anyway (they've been voting against Bedroom Tax for a couple of years now) so it would be in keeping.

I agree. It seems strange calling it a pledge after the last pledge Clegg made was so effective!

The only Pledge he really believes in is the stuff his cleaning lady uses on the woodwork.

That's just silly,no way would his cleaning lady be allowed to use pledge.Wax polish and lots of buffing up.Used to do it myself(not for Clegg obvs).

[Rebecca]

How odd:

ONLINE bookmaker Betfair is paying out to customers who have backed a ‘No’ vote in this week’s Scottish independence referendum, two days before the polls open.

Do they know something we don't?

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/t ... -1-3543402

I saw that too.What's that about?Surely it's too close to call?Any gamblers here to explain?

[rebeccariots2]

I haven't commented here for a few days for that very reason - I feel, as I did with Labour's failure to oppose some of the worst excesses in this government's benefits policies (and if you recall, the arguments then caused some much-loved contributors to leave FTN), that the various people here getting annoyed/upset about nationalistic fervour should think about how they post.

Every time you point a finger, there's another three pointing back at you.

Indeed. I've felt compelled to point out holes in certain arguments (always a dangerous thing to do, I know) but that's attracted some pretty nasty commentary from both sides of the aisle. As with everything in politics, moderates are sidelined when passions run high. Let's hope that when the dust settles there aren't too many bodies lying around.

Whichever way the vote goes - something has changed - it isn't going to be the same. And some of the change may not be too pleasant - given the amount of division and hostility that appears to have surfaced, especially in the last couple of weeks. Yes, let's hope there aren't too many bodies lying around. I think the independence ref has now not only ignited people in Scotland but in rUK as well - and it looks as though there may be quite a lot of division here ... on sharing out assets and liabilities should YES win out ... on allowing DevoMax as proposed, with or without constitutional reform and greater devolution in other parts of the UK should NO prevail.

For my part - I haven't felt anyone here has been offensive or didactic in their views on Scotland and independence. Some have stonger views and ways of expressing themselves - but it hasn't been abusive IMO (unlike some of the stuff I've seen reported on Twitter and elsewhere). I can fully understand why people in Scotland may want to vote YES and cite the current Westminster government and vile, punitive policies such as the bedroom tax etc etc - and why their faith in Labour to be different, really different has been stretched so far that they now want to risk something entirely different. I'm not an uncritical supporter of Labour. I'd like Scotland to stay in the UK - but I will wish it well whatever happens.

[rebeccariots2]

http://politicalscrapbook.net/2014/09/l ... h-bed-tax/

LibDems whingiing again.

One of the few things they are very good at. Plenty of experience.

[rebeccariots2]

Retweeted by Iain Martin
anita anand ‏@tweeter_anita 1h
Miliband physically shoved, shouted at, sworn at and called a liar and a traitor... not a great day for public discourse is it.

Seen a few tweets like this now ... sounds ugly.

[Rebecca]

According to the Guardian,Ed Miliband has had to stop his walkabout after being abused by Yes supporters shouting charming things such as 'fucking liar' and 'serial murderer'.
This is foul.

[AnatolyKasparov]

How odd:

ONLINE bookmaker Betfair is paying out to customers who have backed a ‘No’ vote in this week’s Scottish independence referendum, two days before the polls open.

Do they know something we don't?

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/t ... -1-3543402

Don't really like that - a Manchester bookie has not once but twice paid out on United winning the PL, and they failed to do so

[yahyah]

If you have 10 minutes to spare, read this, explains a lot about the mind-set within the ''Yes'' brigade, not everyone obviously, but there are recognisable traits that we have all seen in this campaign.

http://wakeupscotland.wordpress.com/201 ... ged-to-no/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Morning by the way..

Had my own personal experience of this today, it's like being steamrollered. It doesn't endear, tbh.

Indeed. As have I.

And both sides are as bad as each other in that respect. I've had it from both.

There have been exaggerations and stroppiness on both sides; too much unreasonable hope on one side, and way too many empty threats on the other.
The Yes campaign started off in a civilised fashion and is getting more strident by the day; the No campaign has been a last-minute farce worthy of Frayn.

With the sort of politics we have in the UK, with some of the personalities involved, and with a media obsessed with soundbites, it was inevitable that things would get very heated the closer we come to the vote.

Whilst that does not excuse some of the more egregious examples of personal insult - from both sides - that I've seen on CIF and elsewhere, it's understandable when passions are running so high.

I haven't commented here for a few days for that very reason - I feel, as I did with Labour's failure to oppose some of the worst excesses in this government's benefits policies (and if you recall, the arguments then caused some much-loved contributors to leave FTN), that the various people here getting annoyed/upset about nationalistic fervour should think about how they post.

Every time you point a finger, there's another three pointing back at you.

Well, I did learn from that episode.
Expect abuse about Labour or what sort of suit Ed Miliband wears, but never, ever criticise the Green party or the sometimes nihilistic left or you'll get chopped off at the knees and then blamed when people have a strop, the very same people who can usually deal it out themselves in spades.

But just as well we are all different isn't it, or it would be rather boring.