Wednesday 17th September 2014

Post by **refitman** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 7:28 am

Good morning. Labour lead at 3 points on Yougov:

Latest YouGov / The Sun results 16th Sept -

Con 34%, (+3)
Lab 37%, (+2)
LD 7%, (no change)
UKIP 12%; (-3)

APP -20 (+6)

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 8:03 am

This is quite a good read on Labour and the NHS despite the unnecessary sensationalist headline.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... saving-nhs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Oh and Morning!

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 8:05 am

New Statesman retweeted
The Staggers ‏@TheStaggers 10h
Scottish independence polls: ICM - No 52%, Yes 48%. Opinium - No 52%, Yes 48%.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 8:06 am

Sorry if we've already had those I'm losing track

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 8:11 am

This is the letter Alex Salmond should write, but won't.

Friends, tomorrow we in Scotland have a historic opportunity. We can vote to dissolve the Union and stand again as an independent country. By voting Yes tomorrow you can ensure that Scotland takes its place as a truly independent nation.

I won't lie to you, such a choice is fraught with risk and there will be hardship for many in the next decade, but at the end of it we will emerge a strong and confident nation. In order for you to make this choice with open eyes it falls to me to warn you of some of the difficulties we must face together.

Firstly negotiations with rUK will be difficult, the reality is we have no bargaining chips of value, and our options are limited as we will need the rUK to approve our eventual membership of the EU. However I am confident that we will emerge with an equitable split and a fair share of the national debt.

We will of course face an immediate problem. We will have no sovereign currency, so sadly the Scottish notes will be no more. More seriously we will face a large current account deficit which we will be unable to fund, other than by borrowing at high rates in foreign currencies. Friends, we have seen where that leads, in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland. We simply cannot go there.

Therefore we will have to cut spending to balance the budget. Hard choices will have to be made, the NHS will have to be slimmed down, some services will no longer be provided. Pensions will sadly have to be trimmed, and yes benefits and services cut. For those in work taxes will have to rise, in part to balance the deficit and in part to make up for the large cuts in Corporation tax we are committed to. Unemployment will rise, our last remaining shipyards are at risk, and yes some businesses will relocate south. This combined with cuts and tax rises will produce a grim recession, however I am confident that we will prevail in our struggle to create a nation.

If we can survive the first five years with our fiscal reputation intact we will be permitted to join the EU and adopt the Euro. This will again give us the support of a Central bank and the Euro coins will be graced with a distinctive Scottish design. We will of course have to pool some sovereignty with Europe and accept the fiscal discipline required by the Bundesbank. However we will gain the security of being a full member of the EU. And friends, we will need that support in the years ahead as the oil runs down, and we seek new ways of funding our state. It will be a small state but it will be a Scottish state in Europe.

Friends, it will be tough; many of you will lose your jobs, some will suffer poverty and sickness and the state may be unable to help. But friends, we will be free of England and their austerity. If - like me - you believe that this alone is worth the pain, vote Yes tomorrow.

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 8:22 am

President Salmond reckons that the Spanish don't know the criteria for entry into the EU.

After accusing General Dannat of politicking of old soldiers he turns and does exactly the same thing.

And here he goes again, invoking the ghost of Adam Smith.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 8:25 am

Salmond sounded a little downbeat just now on Radio 4, maybe the private polling his henchmen have bragged about isn't so rosy now.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 8:26 am

letsskiptotheleft wrote:President Salmond reckons that the Spanish don't know the criteria for entry into the EU.

After accusing General Dannat of politicking of old soldiers he turns and does exactly the same thing.

And here he goes again, invoking the ghost of Adam Smith.

Salmond is a dangerous fantasist. He is digging a huge hole and if Scotland jumps into it he will be hated for a generation.

Proof by vigorous assertion has no place in leadership.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 8:37 am

I heard a Yes spokesperson on the Radio 4 farming programme this morning.

A No farming person pointed out [as we discussed here last week] that the rest of the UK is a big market for Scottish products and that market could be dented if Scotland threatened to or did renege on its debt obligation if it didn't get currency union.

The Yes spokesperson was livid and said UK consumers wouldn't be so petty.
Not sure what his view is then of his fellow Yes-ers wanting to boycott any company that dared point out a potential downside of Yes !

JackPranker · Post by **JackPranker** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 8:48 am

TechnicalEphemera wrote:Proof by vigorous assertion has no place in leadership.

Tell that to our current government. I'm sure they'd welcome the feedback.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 8:50 am

Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 17m
Leaflets being given out in Glasgow this morning claim cuts at westminster 'automatically trigger cuts' in Scottish NHS

Whose leaflets Laura? Are they official YES ones - or put out by unofficial YES enthusiasts? Or someone else entirely?

Morning all. Only 2 more days of this feverish build up to go. Then the fall out will be upon us.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 9:03 am

Have just had the oven on for 40 minutes and forgot to put the bread in.

I blame Alex Salmond for distracting me.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 9:05 am

Any views on why the Scottish Sun hasn't come out for Yes ?

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 9:12 am

yahyah wrote:Any views on why the Scottish Sun hasn't come out for Yes ?

Too close to call and scared of backing the wrong side (i.e. the one that loses ....)?

JackPranker · Post by **JackPranker** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 9:13 am

yahyah wrote:Have just had the oven on for 40 minutes and forgot to put the bread in.

I blame Alex Salmond for distracting me.

That'll the least of the things he'll be blamed for today!

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 9:17 am

rebeccariots2 wrote:
yahyah wrote:Any views on why the Scottish Sun hasn't come out for Yes ?
Too close to call and scared of backing the wrong side (i.e. the one that loses ....)?

That's my thought.

Don't often agree with Caron Lindsay but there's an interesting video on her piece on LDV.

http://www.libdemvoice.org/is-mike-croc ... 42435.html

Seeing the Yes-ers moving around and waving their bits of paper and shouting is reminiscent of those old films of Chinese communist cadre waving Mao's little book.

[Is that the new Godwin's law

]

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 9:39 am

JackPranker wrote:
TechnicalEphemera wrote:Proof by vigorous assertion has no place in leadership.
Tell that to our current government. I'm sure they'd welcome the feedback.

Primarily Michael Gove and IDS.

However they aren't in charge of building a new country. Just wrecking an old one.

Tubby Isaacs · Post by **Tubby Isaacs** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 10:10 am

Brian Wernham ‏@BrianUkulele 6m
BREAKING NEWS: Universal Credit roll-out splutters back into life - 3,640 new claimants onto system in a month

Didn't he show that some incredible amount of money had been spent on these claimants?

Lonewolfie · Post by **Lonewolfie** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 10:13 am

yahyah wrote:Any views on why the Scottish Sun hasn't come out for Yes ?

Uncle Rupert suddenly getting cold feet when he saw the 'extreme greens' (perhaps some sort of turbo-charged Brussels Sprout) and 'far-left socialists' (Is that you, Tommy Sheridan? Why wouldn't Uncle Rupert want to work with you I wonder? Nothing to do with this...http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home ... 1407316018....absolutely nothing!!)

Would it actually have helped though? I had a feeling (so I believed(TM) it

) that Murkydochia coming out on the side of Yes would've shown the Scots who would/will actually (still) be in charge.

Even here in Hope (just north of Peterborough) it's starting to get a bit fractious. I can see both sides but can't help getting riled when I hear Yes supporters describing how the societal destruction and blatant venality was only visited on the Scots...and that the 50-60% of the English electorate who are against it as well somehow support the Tory/Murdoch/Banksters view of Britain.

Ooops...and Morning all!

Lonewolfie · Post by **Lonewolfie** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 10:21 am

Strange how this doesn't seem to be getting any media coverage....

http://dpac.uk.net/2014/09/tory-partry- ... -festival/

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 10:56 am

Lonewolfie wrote:Strange how this doesn't seem to be getting any media coverage....

http://dpac.uk.net/2014/09/tory-partry- ... -festival/

Well, the BBC contrived to avoid saying anything about a 50000+ NHS march right by the Conference hall last year (Norman Smith embarrassing himself mightily on Twitter as a result) so ignoring this seems on message.

Lonewolfie · Post by **Lonewolfie** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 11:27 am

TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
Lonewolfie wrote:Strange how this doesn't seem to be getting any media coverage....

http://dpac.uk.net/2014/09/tory-partry- ... -festival/
Well, the BBC contrived to avoid saying anything about a 50000+ NHS march right by the Conference hall last year (Norman Smith embarrassing himself mightily on Twitter as a result) so ignoring this seems on message.

Quite - although I'm not convinced they'll be able to keep everything quiet for the next 8 months...wanton misrepresentation like this is going to be difficult to explain...hidden in the text..."It said that of the 74,000 jobs created, 68,000 were part-time."

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... ial-crisis

...so will interest rates rise then? Surely that's the medicine required by the Neo-Liberal orthodoxy?

"Mr Carney said that the Bank would not consider raising interest rates from their current low of 0.5% until unemployment had fallen to 7% or below."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26153122

TheGrimSqueaker · Post by **TheGrimSqueaker** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 11:58 am

Lonewolfie wrote:
TheGrimSqueaker wrote:
Lonewolfie wrote:Strange how this doesn't seem to be getting any media coverage....

http://dpac.uk.net/2014/09/tory-partry- ... -festival/
Well, the BBC contrived to avoid saying anything about a 50000+ NHS march right by the Conference hall last year (Norman Smith embarrassing himself mightily on Twitter as a result) so ignoring this seems on message.
Quite - although I'm not convinced they'll be able to keep everything quiet for the next 8 months...wanton misrepresentation like this is going to be difficult to explain...hidden in the text..."It said that of the 74,000 jobs created, 68,000 were part-time."

http://www.theguardian.com/business/201 ... ial-crisis

...so will interest rates rise then? Surely that's the medicine required by the Neo-Liberal orthodoxy?

"Mr Carney said that the Bank would not consider raising interest rates from their current low of 0.5% until unemployment had fallen to 7% or below."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26153122

An incoming Labour Government will make for some nervous bosses at the BBC and the various departments (such as DWP, Health and Education) which have been all too willing to pander to the politicization of their fiefdoms. I'd anticipate a raft of 'early retirements; next June/July!

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 12:14 pm

Ruth Davidson enthusiastically clapping Gordon Brown. Hopefully things will go back to normal on Friday..

Brown I have to say is re-energised, there can't be no better orator in the country at the moment.

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 12:24 pm

Fine, fine speech from Brown, one of the best political speeches I have heard for quite a while.

If the Labour vote turns around, those they have lost to the nationalists he will be owed by those who arses he has saved. Excellent speech, hard facts and a whole lot of fire and passion.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 12:29 pm

letsskiptotheleft wrote:President Salmond reckons that the Spanish don't know the criteria for entry into the EU.

After accusing General Dannat of politicking of old soldiers he turns and does exactly the same thing.

And here he goes again, invoking the ghost of Adam Smith.

Adam Smith the committed and lifelong unionist, I presume?

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 1:05 pm

Afternoon.

Good on Bristol Council,'re Independent Living Fund.

http://www.disabilityrightsuk.org/news/ ... s-ilf-vote" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 1:15 pm

Good afternoon.

A thought has just occurred to me -

If the "No" vote wins, will David Cameron be able, in the future, to stop himself from making snide, school-boy comments about the Scots not having had the "bottle" to go it alone and that they should stop "complaining" (about whatever the Scottish issue of the day happens to be)? I can hear him, now, in my head . . .

That's actually a serious question (and worry) to me.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 1:16 pm

Patrick Butler on the decision of the Government to revisit its decision to abolish the Local Welfare Provision Fund,mentioned yesterday.

http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014 ... CMP=twt_gu" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 1:19 pm

''Salmond's oil boom claims blown apart by Scottish energy consultant
Scottish nationalist energy claims dashed by Wood MacKenzie after it says that 15.3bn barrels of oil equivalent remain in the UK

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/news ... ltant.html''

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 1:19 pm

I am told that yesterday Norman Smith on the BBC claimed the Scottish "yes" vote was an anti-Labour one.

We must have imagined all those leaflets proclaiming "kick the TORIES out forever", then??

Even the right wing press are largely accepting it will be Cameron mostly to blame if things go the "wrong" way tomorrow, FFS!

Hobiejoe · Post by **Hobiejoe** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 1:34 pm

Yup, I heard something similar on R5 news yesterday afternoon - it'll be Milliband & Darling's fault if No loses, because they failed to get the Labour vote out. Apparently.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 1:42 pm

PIP backlog continuing to rise,though not as fast as previously.Standing at 323,000 with approximate 35 week clearance rate.ESA numbers/projected numbers continue to rise.

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 1:50 pm

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 1:59 pm

letsskiptotheleft wrote:

That's a good read. I think the Better Together / No Thanks campaign needed a lot more stuff like that rather earlier on.

Rebecca · Post by **Rebecca** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 2:20 pm

Blimey,I wish it was Friday.Then I might get some housework done.
Or maybe not.

Post by **letsskiptotheleft** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 2:24 pm

Ok I have waxed lyrical, now judge for yourselves..

[youtube]J39bBV7CBJk[/youtube]

Yes Rebecca, the NO have been on the back foot when it comes to passionate arguments.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 2:40 pm

Lonewolfie wrote:
"Mr Carney said that the Bank would not consider raising interest rates from their current low of 0.5% until unemployment had fallen to 7% or below."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26153122

Ah - but I read recently that they said they only need to assume/anticipate the figure is going to 7% or below. They don't actually have to wait until it does.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 2:43 pm

PorFavor wrote:Good afternoon.

A thought has just occurred to me -

If the "No" vote wins, will David Cameron be able, in the future, to stop himself from making snide, school-boy comments about the Scots not having had the "bottle" to go it alone and that they should stop "complaining" (about whatever the Scottish issue of the day happens to be)? I can hear him, now, in my head . . .

That's actually a serious question (and worry) to me.

Course he will. He won't be able to resist it!

JackPranker · Post by **JackPranker** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 2:48 pm

ohsocynical wrote:
PorFavor wrote:Good afternoon.

A thought has just occurred to me -

If the "No" vote wins, will David Cameron be able, in the future, to stop himself from making snide, school-boy comments about the Scots not having had the "bottle" to go it alone and that they should stop "complaining" (about whatever the Scottish issue of the day happens to be)? I can hear him, now, in my head . . .

That's actually a serious question (and worry) to me.

Course he will. He won't be able to resist it!

That'll help heal the wounds.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 2:51 pm

Rebecca wrote:Blimey,I wish it was Friday.Then I might get some housework done.
Or maybe not.

I've been trying to catch up on all the jobs I couldn't see to do before my eye was fixed last month. Today I cut Mr Ohso's hair, and then naturally had to clean up behind him because although I'd pulled up the throw rug and cut it in the living room, he'd managed to leave a trail of hair in the hallway, and the bathroom including the shower, sink and toilet - don't ask - I didn't.

I'd promised myself I'd do the ironing before I switched the computer on which should have taken me to teatime, but I've fallen into temptation.
Am leaving tomorrow and Friday totally clear because although the Indyref is driving me mad, I can't help myself !

ErnstRemarx · Post by **ErnstRemarx** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 3:00 pm

Oh well, the jawing stops tonight - or should - and we'll know Friday morning one way or the other. Were I a Scot my heart would say yes, but my head would be screaming no at me, for all the reasons I've outlined on here over the last few days and weeks. Good luck to them either way.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 3:03 pm

Iain Smith speaking up for the "No" vote. That's torn it . . .

And, like ErnstRemarx, I wish the Scots all the best of luck, whatever the result.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 3:40 pm

ErnstRemarx wrote:Oh well, the jawing stops tonight - or should - and we'll know Friday morning one way or the other. Were I a Scot my heart would say yes, but my head would be screaming no at me, for all the reasons I've outlined on here over the last few days and weeks. Good luck to them either way.

My sentiments exactly.

Here's hoping Friday is a time for heads to override hearts and the mending of bridges between factions. Please let there be no gloating or cries of no fair from the respective winners and losers camps. I'm looking at you, Cameron and Salmond.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 3:45 pm

We would hope that if the No vote wins, Cameron would go down on his knees and thank Gordon Brown in particular, not to mention Darling, Ed, and the countless Labour No supporters who've been out on the doorsteps in Scotland - not that we've seen much of that on the TV.

There is as much chance of that happening as seeing pink elephants flying past my window.

TechnicalEphemera · Post by **TechnicalEphemera** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 3:49 pm

ErnstRemarx wrote:Oh well, the jawing stops tonight - or should - and we'll know Friday morning one way or the other. Were I a Scot my heart would say yes, but my head would be screaming no at me, for all the reasons I've outlined on here over the last few days and weeks. Good luck to them either way.

A vote for yes is a vote for eye watering austerity.

But it will be a Scottish austerity.

ErnstRemarx · Post by **ErnstRemarx** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 3:54 pm

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
ErnstRemarx wrote:Oh well, the jawing stops tonight - or should - and we'll know Friday morning one way or the other. Were I a Scot my heart would say yes, but my head would be screaming no at me, for all the reasons I've outlined on here over the last few days and weeks. Good luck to them either way.
A vote for yes is a vote for eye watering austerity.

But it will be a Scottish austerity.

That's the sad irony of all this. Yes campaigners rail against austerity - Tory or English austerity as they appear to see it - and yet if only half of the fears of business come to pass, and even if Scotland is careful and shepherds its resources closely, there will still be austerity far worse than they currently perceive. I can see Salmond and the SNP catching it in the neck if that occurs.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 3:56 pm

ohsocynical wrote:We would hope that if the No vote wins, Cameron would go down on his knees and thank Gordon Brown in particular, not to mention Darling, Ed, and the countless Labour No supporters who've been out on the doorsteps in Scotland - not that we've seen much of that on the TV.

There is as much chance of that happening as seeing pink elephants flying past my window.

According to Guido there are already Tory MPs calling for Cameron to consider his position if it goes Yes.

For a Conservative and Unionist PM to lose part of the union would be an unforgivable crime according to the old-style Tories.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 4:00 pm

Panelbase poll - "no" ahead by 52.5 to 47.5.

Rebecca · Post by **Rebecca** » Wed 17 Sep, 2014 4:24 pm

PorFavor wrote:Iain Smith speaking up for the "No" vote. That's torn it . . .

And, like ErnstRemarx, I wish the Scots all the best of luck, whatever the result.

Can I NOT wish my ex mother-in-law well?Or those guys who called Ed M a serial murderer?Holding a grudge here.