Friday 14th August 2015

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PorFavor
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by PorFavor »

ohsocynical wrote:'Chillaxing' David Cameron blighted by 'swimmer's ear' on family holiday to Portugal

DAVID Cameron has had to interrupt his sunshine holiday to seek medical treatment for an ear infection

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/598318 ... ay-Algarve


Oh dear, what a shame. :lol: :rock:
It must go well with his "swiller's gut".
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ephemerid
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by ephemerid »

yahyah wrote:Am I the only human being in Britain who refuses to have a smartphone ?

No.

I've got a phone which is a phone. It makes calls and everything.
You can take pictures with it in an emergency, but no emergency has arisen in my life which requires a photograph.

I've got a little laptop computer that does computery things.
It does lots of useful stuff like surfing that ole interweb thingy and penning puerile posts here and elswhere.

I've got a telly that's a telly. It's not an entertainment centre.
It's really good because you can watch television programmes on it and even find out when the ones you like are on.

I have a new microwave, which Show bought for me after I was poorly and he had to cook his supper. He thought it would be a cunning plan to forget to take the knife out of the potatoes he wanted to bake, and there was a minor explosion Chez Ephie&Show.
Very messy it was too.

The new one requires programming using a set of codes which are in the book which is in the box in the cupboard under the stairs.
If you get it wrong, knives in situ notwithstanding, it sends messages to Mars. At least, I think that's what it's doing.
It could be talking to the taps, of course.
"Poverty is the worst form of violence" - Mahatma Gandhi
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Tizme1
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by Tizme1 »

Thanks Robert and yahyah. And enjoy your pasta yahyah. I've got some sour cream to use up and can't think what to cook. Other than baked potato - the idea of which just isn't hitting the spot.
Although it is not true that all conservatives are stupid people, it is true that most stupid people are conservative.
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ephemerid
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by ephemerid »

HindleA wrote:It was,a source of contention that I wouldn't get/use a mobile for work purposes when I was a home help.1.Not very respectful for it to go off when helping someone in their own home(the position now reversed I have to grit my teeth sometimes)2.You use the landline phone to clock in/out (with agreement)any information can be passed on that way.I cycled.Out of necessity I relented but only have a very basic mobile.Still shout into it for some delusional reasoning that people are more likely to hear me.(I don't like 'phones in general,we didn't have one until I was seventeen)

I recall those boxy things that smart young chaps who did something in the city used to cart about.

"I'M ON THE TRAIN!" they would shout.

"WE KNOW!" we would reply.

We didn't get a phone until I was 14.
My dad thought the whole idea was ridiculous, as the village phonebox could be seen outside the dining room window.

I refused to get a mobile until 2003. I only caved in because my daughter insisted she needed me to have one so she could get in touch with me while I was tootling about for work/meetings/whatever.
That's when I'd be driving, obviously.

Mine's turned off a lot of the time.

I wonder why nobody calls......
"Poverty is the worst form of violence" - Mahatma Gandhi
ohsocynical
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

ohsocynical wrote:'Chillaxing' David Cameron blighted by 'swimmer's ear' on family holiday to Portugal

DAVID Cameron has had to interrupt his sunshine holiday to seek medical treatment for an ear infection

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/598318 ... ay-Algarve


Oh dear, what a shame. :lol: :rock:
Water leaked in where his brain should be I bet.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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Willow904
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by Willow904 »

yahyah wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:@yahyah

Looks like you could bump into Faisal if you're shopping in Aberaeron ... he's on the coast road trip.
Faisal Islam retweeted
Ship Inn Tresaith ‏@ShipInnTresaith Aug 6
25 Places In Wales You Won't Believe Are Real!

http://sndr.so/SyM6z" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Faisal Islam ‏@faisalislam Aug 8
We chose to holiday in one of the 8 remaining LibDem seats... #Ceredigion
Thanks, we are going to Aberaeron tomorrow - will look out for him.
Weather is appalling, feel sorry for him and Willow [in North Wales].
Thanks Yahyah, but there's no need to feel sorry for me. We've been enjoying a surprising amount of sunshine up here on the Llyn Peninsula!
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

yahyah wrote:Am I the only human being in Britain who refuses to have a smartphone ?
No.

And this reminds me that Ofcom have introduced an online mobile coverage checker which you can put your postcode into and it shows what coverage you are likely to get from the big 4 providers. It is independent of the providers and they ask for feedback from users of it to keep informed of what's happening out there when you use it. It was very accurate for us - i.e. it told us we wouldn't get a signal here and defined on the map pretty much down to a t the exact area which is incommunicado. Worth taking a look before you buy a new phone and contract.
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ephemerid
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by ephemerid »

Tizme1 wrote:Thanks Robert and yahyah. And enjoy your pasta yahyah. I've got some sour cream to use up and can't think what to cook. Other than baked potato - the idea of which just isn't hitting the spot.

If you have some couscous, and a few nice veggies like a pepper or courgettes, you could roast the veg in loads of olive oil with garlic and chili, mix with the couscous, and use the cream with some cucumber like a raita-type thing.

I made a veggie couscous a few weeks ago (I put olives and pine nuts in too, spiced with Ras El Hanout) and discovered I'd no yogurt but I did have a bit of creme fraiche that was just usable. It worked OK. Sour cream might too?
"Poverty is the worst form of violence" - Mahatma Gandhi
ohsocynical
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

I went into the store and asked for a mobile for dummies with fat fingers. Consequently it only does texts and phone calls. It's pay as you go, but I don't have any credit on it.
I bought it when I had to go to hospital because of keeping in touch, but otherwise I can't see the point of it. I've been trying to get used to having one by charging it up and carrying it in my bag etc, but Mr Ohso says what's the point if I'm not using it.

I think I'm a lost cause
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
ohsocynical
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

PorFavor wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:'Chillaxing' David Cameron blighted by 'swimmer's ear' on family holiday to Portugal

DAVID Cameron has had to interrupt his sunshine holiday to seek medical treatment for an ear infection

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/598318 ... ay-Algarve


Oh dear, what a shame. :lol: :rock:
It must go well with his "swiller's gut".
Where are the jellyfish when you want them.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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ephemerid
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by ephemerid »

ohsocynical wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:'Chillaxing' David Cameron blighted by 'swimmer's ear' on family holiday to Portugal

DAVID Cameron has had to interrupt his sunshine holiday to seek medical treatment for an ear infection

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/598318 ... ay-Algarve


Oh dear, what a shame. :lol: :rock:
Water leaked in where his brain should be I bet.

I think he was pointing at fish with his gob open, as usual, and one of them nipped in to see if there was anything there.

It swam about for a bit, then tried to find it's way out through his ear 'cos his gob was full of claret. Or something.

This is what happens when you haven't got a 7-day NHS to go to. Tsk tsk.

Actually, ear infections really are awful. They make you so ill.

But on the basis that he supports the idea that people with cancer are fit for work related activity, I think he should return to the UK at once and commence some work related activity. After all, what he does couldn't really be described as work, could it? Not with 5 jolly hols a year.

It's SamCam I feel sorry for.
Frequently.
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ephemerid
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by ephemerid »

ohsocynical wrote:
PorFavor wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:'Chillaxing' David Cameron blighted by 'swimmer's ear' on family holiday to Portugal

DAVID Cameron has had to interrupt his sunshine holiday to seek medical treatment for an ear infection

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/598318 ... ay-Algarve


Oh dear, what a shame. :lol: :rock:
It must go well with his "swiller's gut".
Where are the jellyfish when you want them.

They've buggered off. There's only so much room in the Atlantic, you know.
"Poverty is the worst form of violence" - Mahatma Gandhi
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rebeccariots2
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by rebeccariots2 »

Jeremy Corbyn is most popular among voters from all parties, poll suggests
Labour leadership candidate is as popular with Ukip voters as Labour voters, Survation finds, and is top in London, according to separate poll

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Survation said that, on the face of it, the results did not bear out arguments from senior Labour figures that either Corbyn or his policies would be deeply unpopular with the country.
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Tizme1
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by Tizme1 »

ephemerid wrote:
Tizme1 wrote:Thanks Robert and yahyah. And enjoy your pasta yahyah. I've got some sour cream to use up and can't think what to cook. Other than baked potato - the idea of which just isn't hitting the spot.

If you have some couscous, and a few nice veggies like a pepper or courgettes, you could roast the veg in loads of olive oil with garlic and chili, mix with the couscous, and use the cream with some cucumber like a raita-type thing.

I made a veggie couscous a few weeks ago (I put olives and pine nuts in too, spiced with Ras El Hanout) and discovered I'd no yogurt but I did have a bit of creme fraiche that was just usable. It worked OK. Sour cream might too?
I've nearly always got a good selection of veggies. That actually sounds good but I've just been and checked and I'm out of olive oil. Poor show on my part. I've just found a recipe for a sort of creamy cheesy fish bake. As always I'll have to adapt it - I'm too much of a rebel to 'do as I'm told'.

Are you a vegetarian Ephe? I'm not but I tend to eat mostly veggie if that makes sense - hence I'm always looking for veggie recipe ideas.

Edited to take out a random i
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utopiandreams
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by utopiandreams »

yahyah wrote:Am I the only human being in Britain who refuses to have a smartphone ?
I only relented because I have to do some web development for them. Worse than that, yahyah, I've got to become a twit and get familiar with FB too. So much for making promises and being a man of my word.
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by utopiandreams »

HindleA wrote:One with an IQ over 130?
... and tells you how to operate it too, HindleA? Something I wish coffee dispensers would do before embarrassing myself.
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TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

rebeccariots2 wrote:
Jeremy Corbyn is most popular among voters from all parties, poll suggests
Labour leadership candidate is as popular with Ukip voters as Labour voters, Survation finds, and is top in London, according to separate poll

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... are_btn_tw" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Survation said that, on the face of it, the results did not bear out arguments from senior Labour figures that either Corbyn or his policies would be deeply unpopular with the country.

I would treat that with a serious pinch of salt.

Now if 6 months down the line Corbyn isn't leaking voters to the centre and is still connecting with UKIP voters things might be interesting.

The way I see this is that I am easily the most left wing person I know, and he is too left wing for me. Similarly his policies and his economics don't bear serious scrutiny. This suggests to me he can't actually win a General election. Which is why I think the novelty will wear off quickly.

But if he is prepared to lead a centrist party from the left, working on consensus and dropping his daft ideas then who knows. If he can appeal to the anti politics brigade whilst not frightening soft Tory voter Cameron is in trouble (but it seems unlikely).
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ohsocynical
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

Jeremy Corbyn’s lead over the other candidates for the Labour leadership could have grown even further after a last-minute influx of voters to the contest, a pollster has said.

299,755 people have signed up to vote as full members of the Labour party – an increased of 105,000 on the general election and the highest since Tony Blair’s heyday.

121,295 people have also applied through a separate scheme to support but not join the party, which will allow them to vote.

YouGov, which carried out a poll earlier this month showing Mr Corbyn with a 32 point lead, said a new surge of electors that caused the Labour website to crash minutes before the deadline to sign up could be good news for the left-winger.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 55655.html
I know we're disillusioned with polls but it has the figures for those who've joined the Labour Party, and those who have just joined to vote.
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by HindleA »

@utopiandreams
I used to work with RNIB,a talking microwave mysteriously appeared in our kitchen,we used to hold long philosophical discussions until I managed to knacker it.
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by utopiandreams »

Confession time. When I first got a mobile I found myself answering it even when I went to the loo, something I never ever did with a cordless phone. I have since learned the error of my ways.
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utopiandreams
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by utopiandreams »

ohsocynical wrote:... Water leaked in where his brain should be I bet.
Mmm on second thoughts I shan't respond so near tea time, ohso.
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HindleA
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by HindleA »

Probably related.


Now,have to make do with a talking clock,but not much in the conversation stakes.
howsillyofme1
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by howsillyofme1 »

I just wonder around all this policy criticism

Surely the role of Labour at the moment is to disrupt

The election is in 2020 nothing will change that in reality and it is all about reinvigorating Labour supporters and voters

Corbyn may be able to do that in the medium term and are his so-called 'false hope' policies a bit problem for a country hoping for something - false or not

All the Tory and UKIP promises are false and that hasn't stopped them doing better than expected in recent years......

As we are continually told winning is everything in 2020 - the other 3 candidates (Burnham excepted a bit?) are going for a 'go along with the Tories a bit and then win because we are not scary and then we can tack to the left a bit more than we said' premise. Is this really any more likely to win than a Corbyn more ambitious plan with real opposition to Tory policies? - I am sure he will also realise he cannot be too extreme as well - he is not stupid you know

People want some hope now - it has been taken from them by the Tories - who cares if it is a bit false.....better than the no hope being delivered by the Tories and being indicated by the other candidates

It will be easier for the media to attack him but if he can fight back robustly then it may be in his favour - he doesn't lack courage I don't think....the others don't seem to have much
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by utopiandreams »

ohsocynical wrote:... Mr Ohso says what's the point if I'm not using it.
In an emergency, ohso. (I must be going senile as I keep getting stuck on words that should roll off the tongue today - hectic is all I can come up with and that isn't what I mean - thesaurus later). I must lead a far more hectic life than Robert. For my own sanity I hope it was RobertSnozers that spoke of only one or two.
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ohsocynical
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

Lord Janner: 'Confused' peer spends 59 seconds in court on child sex abuse charges
Former Labour peer spends less than a minute in Westminster courtroom for first appearance over 22 historic child sex abuse charges - latest

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/ ... -LIVE.html
Check out the photo on this article. There is something badly wrong with it in my opinion. Why have they dressed him like a poor, working class pensioner?
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
utopiandreams
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by utopiandreams »

ohsocynical wrote:... Where are the jellyfish when you want them.
Jellyfish, ohso? Where are the orcas?
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LadyCentauria
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by LadyCentauria »

RobertSnozers wrote:
yahyah wrote:I know we've lost a few people in the last few days because they think FTN has become Corbyn HQ but please can someone pop back and argue for Andy ?

My concerns are:
Cameron using Stafford/''drinking from vases'' at PMQs and the media helping him with that.
He doesn't always come across as the brightest bulb in the box - no disrespect, I'm no intellectual.

But I like the fact that he seems to be positioned as a unity candidate, something his canvasser argued when we were phoned.
I was actually arguing for Andy last week, and to be honest I'm still weighing up whether he's going to be my first or second choice.

Pros - unity candidate, will probably have good support in the parliamentary party, at least at first, has some sound and interesting plans for social care and real passion about it, comes across as a decent and ordinary bloke, has recognised the mood of the party and responded to it
Andy is likely to be my first choice - for pretty much the reasons you and @yahyah point out - with Jeremy as second. I liked the fact that when asked, in the first televised hustings I watched, he would have Jeremy in his Cabinet he said, "Yes!" with very little pause. He followed that with, "Maybe not as Chancellor" but he did that whilst looking and smiling at Jeremy, and said that he was sure there was a place for him. I was horrified that both Yvette and Liz instantly said, "No!" to that same question! And I'm pretty sure that both of them said they'd refuse to serve under him, too. Way to lose friends and alienate people, ladies...

Having read both Andy' and Jeremy's manifestos, there is much in both of them that I agree with; both contain elements that would be pretty difficult to implement, and both have some things I'm not sure about. Both people are speaking for unity in the party, against negativity, can debate the issues rather than 'playing the man' and have useful experience from their differing political careers and lives; but I'm tending towards Andy because he has the experience of both fighting his corner and making compromises within both Government and Shadow Cabinet at Ministerial and Sec. of State level - experience that Jeremy doesn't have, however inspiring he is, and however fresh he still is even after so long on both the Government and Opposition back-benches. I don't think I'd mind either of them winning but my balance keeps teetering more in Andy's direction than Jeremy's.

Yes, Cameron and his pals will try throwing Mid-Staffs at him. He needs to say, "The Hon./Right Hon. Gentleman will recall, that the news of Mid-Staffs broke during the time of my predecessor as Health Secretary. He will also recall that one of my first acts was to call an urgent investigation into the matter and, on receipt of that report, to immediately set up the Francis-led Independent Inquiry, giving Mr Francis QC the discretion to make it a Public Inquiry should he feel that to be the correct course of action. All this during the short eleven month between my appointment and the 2010 General Election; and, at the same time, circumstances in that Hospital Trust improved significantly, building on the reports and on the work my predecessor set in motion to prevent further failings. All of this is on the record, in Hansard and in other places, as the Gentleman well knows. The Hon./R. Hon. Gentleman has been leading the Government of this country for more than five years now, and is into his second term, so perhaps we should concentrate, now, on the increasing waiting lists and A&E waiting times under his leadership - a scandal and disaster that they should be so high now, in high summer! - the loss of staff and of staff-training places, the drastic cuts in necessary funding for both the NHS and for Social Care..." and carry on in that vein with the tables turned onto both Cameron-led Coalition and Conservative Governments. TBH, it's not as if he hasn't already said this and more. And, if Cameron were to throw it at him during their first PMQs together - or another early such occasion - he should remind the PM that he is the one who is required to give answers during the session named "Questions to the Prime Minister" but, just this once, "I will remind the Prime Minister of the facts." then say roughly what I've suggested, above.

Should either of them become Leader, I'm pretty sure that they'll draw upon the undoubted, if different, experience of the other and give them a high profile position in the area of polity they are most passionate about. I might not sound all that 'passionate' myself but I'm passionate to see the Tories overthrown; to see a decent amount of council-housing built in mixed-developments so that, as Bevan intended, a series of villages is created with all walks of life alongside each other in homes they can afford, whether rented or owned; to see a real National Health and Social Care Service developed with at least adequate funding and decent wages and that precious time to care; to see a revival of FE colleges and night-schools and real opportunities for lifelong-learning; to see Social Security restored to a position of national respect and support; to see the encouragement and support of trade and industry from artisan, through retail, traditional manufacturing, novel technologies, 'green' power generation, and including banking and other financial services like bringing back Building Societies; with co-operatives and mutuals and employee representation at all levels of management including boards. I want to see good local schools, properly equipped, that are answerable to local control/oversight and co-operation, with pupils in small classes and well-paid teachers with time to teach. I want every area in which governments or local authorities are involved in any way to have the question of 'how does this benefit the people of this country?' at its heart and forefront. I want good jobs with good prospects for people, in fields that interest them, I want worthwhile occupations for people and the freedom for creative people to create. I want public transport under public ownership and control, as far as is humanly possible. I want decent homes that people can afford to rent and decent homes that people can afford to buy, and I want those homes to be properly insulated, low-energy, with the energy to keep them warm and lit, for cooking, and to power all our modern gadgets, generated as close to 'on-site' as possible. And I want people paying the levels of taxes and National Insurance that their incomes can, reasonably, 'spare' to support all those services we're all likely to need at some point in our lives. I want more, of course. I want people to have time for a social life, to have time to care about family, friends, and neighbours and their neighbourhoods. I want an end to badger-culling and a way found to stop badgers catching and carrying bovine TB - which probably means vaccinating cattle and keeping them in more natural, less intensive, circumstances. I want food produced as cleanly and as locally as possible - and I want to see people exercising the rights granted by the Welsh Government for Low Impact Development and One Planet Development policies spread throughout the UK*. And I want no bloody fracking! That's not all but enough for now.

I cannot see myself using my third and fourth placings as just about everything Yvette and Liz have said has either made me think, "Yeah, well, obviously," or left me completely flat, or made me shout, "No!" at the telly or website or newspaper.

* See: http://lammas.org.uk/planning - I'd live somewhere like that, if I could. I do, already, in my heart of hearts...
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HindleA
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by HindleA »

My mother's party piece is using her mobile in mid flow,I had hoped the novelty would wear off,not as yet.
Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Corbyn has a long article on climate/energy.

http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_c ... build.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Hard to say without knowing more about it, but it looks like a load of news stories chucked together, just like people do with Education sometimes. It doesn't work like that. For a start, his star pupil, Germany, has higher energy prices than the UK, burns more coal, and subsidizes fossil fuels more.

You have to look at the way the different stuff interacts. The Committee on Climate Change came up with the following mix for achieving Corbyn's aim of carbon-free electricity by 2030:
• 40% renewables

• 40% nuclear

• 15% carbon capture and storage

• Up to 10% gas without carbon capture and storage
Corbyn's got no nuclear at all, and "South Wales Coal" somewhere. Lots of it though is OK, more insulation, more investment in renewables. But looks like a heavy dose of old-style "this doesn't go far enough" that the Lib Dems used to come out with until they actually got into government.

As I've said before, I suspect Corbyn in government would have Sir Humphrey using the word "brave" a lot.
Last edited by Tubby Isaacs on Fri 14 Aug, 2015 8:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
utopiandreams
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by utopiandreams »

HindleA wrote:@utopiandreams
I used to work with RNIB,a talking microwave mysteriously appeared in our kitchen,we used to hold long philosophical discussions until I managed to knacker it.
I sympathise with you, HindleA. but I can never work simple ones with a spout that are common at buffets.

Edit: sorry I was still stuck on coffee dispensers.
Last edited by utopiandreams on Fri 14 Aug, 2015 8:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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TechnicalEphemera
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by TechnicalEphemera »

howsillyofme1 wrote:I just wonder around all this policy criticism

Surely the role of Labour at the moment is to disrupt

The election is in 2020 nothing will change that in reality and it is all about reinvigorating Labour supporters and voters

Corbyn may be able to do that in the medium term and are his so-called 'false hope' policies a bit problem for a country hoping for something - false or not

All the Tory and UKIP promises are false and that hasn't stopped them doing better than expected in recent years......

As we are continually told winning is everything in 2020 - the other 3 candidates (Burnham excepted a bit?) are going for a 'go along with the Tories a bit and then win because we are not scary and then we can tack to the left a bit more than we said' premise. Is this really any more likely to win than a Corbyn more ambitious plan with real opposition to Tory policies? - I am sure he will also realise he cannot be too extreme as well - he is not stupid you know

People want some hope now - it has been taken from them by the Tories - who cares if it is a bit false.....better than the no hope being delivered by the Tories and being indicated by the other candidates

It will be easier for the media to attack him but if he can fight back robustly then it may be in his favour - he doesn't lack courage I don't think....the others don't seem to have much
The job of Labour is to create a winning coalition of voters. The risk is that Corbyn will contaminate the brand with unrealistic policies. So who is that winning coalition, I suggest:

Aspirational low income working middle classes, want a house, can't have one.
The young - continually shafted by Osborne but they don't vote.
Precariat new working class - undercut by immigrants (they believe) tending UKIP.
Poorer pensioners fearful of social care and the future.
Young working families - worried about education and their kids futures.

The pitch a new deal and fair shout for the masses.

Avoid barnacles on the boat (e.g. CND) cost votes, not core message. Don't commit to so much spending these people worry about stability and taxes, don't back dubious trendy left wing causes (usually covers stuff like censorship - Jowell take note, or positive discrimination or pro Russia foreign policy).

And hammer the government while building that coalition and showing economic credibility.

The message is always we won't screw it up and we are on your side.
Release the Guardvarks.
Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

You might also notice the following oddity in the Corbyn.
In the last Parliament, the Tories spent £3 billion on fossil fuel subsides
The IMF has reported that Britain throws seven times more subsidies at the fossil fuel industry than it puts into renewable energy (£26 billion last year, as against £3.5 billion going to renewables).
howsillyofme1
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by howsillyofme1 »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:Corbyn has a very long article on climate/energy.

http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_c ... build.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Hard to say without knowing more about it, but it looks like a load of news stories chucked together, just like people do with Education sometimes. It doesn't work like that. For a start, his star pupil, Germany, has higher energy prices than the UK, burns more coal, and subsidizes fossil fuels more.

You have to look at the way the different stuff interacts. The Committee on Climate Change came up with the following mix for achieving Corbyn's aim of carbon-free electricity by 2030:
• 40% renewables

• 40% nuclear

• 15% carbon capture and storage

• Up to 10% gas without carbon capture and storage
Corbyn's got no nuclear at all, and "South Wales Coal" somewhere. Lots of it though is OK, more insulation, more investment in renewables. But looks like a heavy dose of old-style "this doesn't go far enough" that the Lib Dems used to come out with until they actually got into government.

As I've said before, I suspect Corbyn in government would have Sir Humphrey using the word "brave" a lot.

But if he got into Government then it means the Tories won't be

Your argument is confused; is it that we cannot win with him as leader or he can win as leader but the policies will be far too ambitious?

If it is the latter then all I will say: Tories 2010 whose whole Government was run on lies and false truths compared to what they said they would do....and they improved for 2015! I expect 2015-2020 to be the same......

Policies will not be developed until the second half of the Parliament and we can see then.....leadership is about vision and direction not policies....policies are not decided by the leader alone (or shouldn't be anyway).

If his direction is to be uncompromising with the Tories and to actually oppose rather than let them walk all over us until an unforeseen disaster awaits then good luck to him! Policies can wait until later and I can guarantee they will be different from what he is saying now, as will the other candidates - in fact some of them are not mentioning policies at all

I could live with Burnham but I am not convinced he will see it through.....Corbyn will be oppositional and that is what is needed now more than anything....more than bloody policies that will not be discussed until 2018 at the earliest and will not be put in place until 2020
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ephemerid
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by ephemerid »

Tizme1 wrote:
ephemerid wrote:
Tizme1 wrote:Thanks Robert and yahyah. And enjoy your pasta yahyah. I've got some sour cream to use up and can't think what to cook. Other than baked potato - the idea of which just isn't hitting the spot.

If you have some couscous, and a few nice veggies like a pepper or courgettes, you could roast the veg in loads of olive oil with garlic and chili, mix with the couscous, and use the cream with some cucumber like a raita-type thing.

I made a veggie couscous a few weeks ago (I put olives and pine nuts in too, spiced with Ras El Hanout) and discovered I'd no yogurt but I did have a bit of creme fraiche that was just usable. It worked OK. Sour cream might too?
I've nearly always got a good selection of veggies. That actually sounds good but I've just been and checked and I'm out of olive oil. Poor show on my part. I've just found a recipe for a sort of creamy cheesy fish bake. As always I'll have to adapt it - I'm too much of a rebel to 'do as I'm told'.

Are you a vegetarian Ephe? I'm not but I tend to eat mostly veggie if that makes sense - hence I'm always looking for veggie recipe ideas.

Edited to take out a random i

No, I love my meat.

But I need to be careful with my diet, because I got ridiculously fat due to some awful drug therapy I had to have a few years ago (including high-dose steroids) and being not very mobile I can't get it off again through exercise, so I'm eating carefully these days. Show's got some health problems that means he should be eating less meat, so we're sort of semi-veggie by default.

Plus, being on benefits the budget is very limited - and good local produce is a bargain. We had a supper of Pembrokeshire Earlies the other day - just boiled, with a little butter, sea salt, and some tarragon from my window-box. They didn't need anything else - lovely all on their own. I don't find supermarket veg to be as tasty, they're always a bit watery - and they're no cheaper either because they always go off really quickly. I think they over-refrigerate them.

We have a really good weekly market here, with no fewer than 4 greengrocer stalls. There's a deli stall that does herbs/spices in little cellophane packs for 40-50 pence; and they always have vry good cheeses at a fair price. The actual Hay Deli shop, run by different people, I avoid like the plague - it charges ridiculous prices for crap food. I once tore the manager off a strip for trying to sell me grana padano which she insisted was Parmesan. Evidently thought I was as stupid as she is. Sometimes we get a fish man too.

Most of the meat I do get comes from the local butcher - the lamb is to die for, and from a farm we know. They also make Dragon sausages, which I have been told are pork. But having seen no dragons lately, I remain unconvinced.
Poultry is expensive - but a decent chicken is a treat, and we can get 4 meals out of one.
Just down the road in Talgarth is an award winning butcher whose pies and faggots are fabulous. We have been known to have just a pork pie from him for Christmas dinner unless we have visitors.

I don't think I could ever go completely vegetarian. I'd miss my dragons and eggs.....
"Poverty is the worst form of violence" - Mahatma Gandhi
ohsocynical
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

One of the most enduring and longstanding myths of British politics is that Labour lost the 1983 general election because it was too left wing, fighting the election on a manifesto that ensured it was unelectable. In words that have become engraved in the nation's history, Labour's own Gerald Kaufman described the '83 Labour manifesto as 'the longest suicide note in history', which is how it is still regarded over three decades on.

It is a myth that has been doing the rounds in the context of a Labour leadership campaign that has seen a surge in support and momentum for Jeremy Corbyn on a platform of anti austerity, wealth redistribution, and a vision for the country and the role of government that has succeeded in exciting and energising people who'd long become accustomed to a Labour Party that had surrendered to right wing nostrums on the economy, welfare, and foreign policy.


http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/john-wi ... ign=buffer
Interesting.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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ephemerid
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by ephemerid »

howsillyofme1 wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:Corbyn has a very long article on climate/energy.

http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_c ... build.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Hard to say without knowing more about it, but it looks like a load of news stories chucked together, just like people do with Education sometimes. It doesn't work like that. For a start, his star pupil, Germany, has higher energy prices than the UK, burns more coal, and subsidizes fossil fuels more.

You have to look at the way the different stuff interacts. The Committee on Climate Change came up with the following mix for achieving Corbyn's aim of carbon-free electricity by 2030:
• 40% renewables

• 40% nuclear

• 15% carbon capture and storage

• Up to 10% gas without carbon capture and storage
Corbyn's got no nuclear at all, and "South Wales Coal" somewhere. Lots of it though is OK, more insulation, more investment in renewables. But looks like a heavy dose of old-style "this doesn't go far enough" that the Lib Dems used to come out with until they actually got into government.

As I've said before, I suspect Corbyn in government would have Sir Humphrey using the word "brave" a lot.

But if he got into Government then it means the Tories won't be

Your argument is confused; is it that we cannot win with him as leader or he can win as leader but the policies will be far too ambitious?

If it is the latter then all I will say: Tories 2010 whose whole Government was run on lies and false truths compared to what they said they would do....and they improved for 2015! I expect 2015-2020 to be the same......

Policies will not be developed until the second half of the Parliament and we can see then.....leadership is about vision and direction not policies....policies are not decided by the leader alone (or shouldn't be anyway).

If his direction is to be uncompromising with the Tories and to actually oppose rather than let them walk all over us until an unforeseen disaster awaits then good luck to him! Policies can wait until later and I can guarantee they will be different from what he is saying now, as will the other candidates - in fact some of them are not mentioning policies at all

I could live with Burnham but I am not convinced he will see it through.....Corbyn will be oppositional and that is what is needed now more than anything....more than bloody policies that will not be discussed until 2018 at the earliest and will not be put in place until 2020

My feelings exactly. Thank you.
"Poverty is the worst form of violence" - Mahatma Gandhi
Tubby Isaacs
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

But if he got into Government then it means the Tories won't be

Your argument is confused; is it that we cannot win with him as leader or he can win as leader but the policies will be far too ambitious?
It's kind of both- I don't think he will win, because as Simon Wren-Lewis says, he offers easy hits that distract from where he's right (he is right about austerity).

If he did win, I think some of what he promises would get junked as impractical or too expensive. He'd end up probably not all that different to Cooper or Burnham. So I go for them over him. But if he were leader in 2020, I'd still very much like him to win.

To be fair to him, he's not the only one to make very optimistic sounding claims. Cooper talks about 2m more highly skilled jobs, which as far as I can tell, pop up because we spend more money on science.

The difference is pretty subjective, I have to be honest. Corbyn's over-optimistic stuff crystalizes general doubts I have about him.

On your earlier point, I think he'll be very good at opposing the current government. He's now a pubic figure, and the public like him. He'll be listened to, and he'd have torn into the Budget exactly as Labour should be doing.
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

ephemerid wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:
Tubby Isaacs wrote:Corbyn has a very long article on climate/energy.

http://www.theecologist.org/blogs_and_c ... build.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Hard to say without knowing more about it, but it looks like a load of news stories chucked together, just like people do with Education sometimes. It doesn't work like that. For a start, his star pupil, Germany, has higher energy prices than the UK, burns more coal, and subsidizes fossil fuels more.

You have to look at the way the different stuff interacts. The Committee on Climate Change came up with the following mix for achieving Corbyn's aim of carbon-free electricity by 2030:
Corbyn's got no nuclear at all, and "South Wales Coal" somewhere. Lots of it though is OK, more insulation, more investment in renewables. But looks like a heavy dose of old-style "this doesn't go far enough" that the Lib Dems used to come out with until they actually got into government.

As I've said before, I suspect Corbyn in government would have Sir Humphrey using the word "brave" a lot.

But if he got into Government then it means the Tories won't be

Your argument is confused; is it that we cannot win with him as leader or he can win as leader but the policies will be far too ambitious?

If it is the latter then all I will say: Tories 2010 whose whole Government was run on lies and false truths compared to what they said they would do....and they improved for 2015! I expect 2015-2020 to be the same......

Policies will not be developed until the second half of the Parliament and we can see then.....leadership is about vision and direction not policies....policies are not decided by the leader alone (or shouldn't be anyway).

If his direction is to be uncompromising with the Tories and to actually oppose rather than let them walk all over us until an unforeseen disaster awaits then good luck to him! Policies can wait until later and I can guarantee they will be different from what he is saying now, as will the other candidates - in fact some of them are not mentioning policies at all

I could live with Burnham but I am not convinced he will see it through.....Corbyn will be oppositional and that is what is needed now more than anything....more than bloody policies that will not be discussed until 2018 at the earliest and will not be put in place until 2020

My feelings exactly. Thank you.
And mine.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
howsillyofme1
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by howsillyofme1 »

TechnicalEphemera wrote:
howsillyofme1 wrote:I just wonder around all this policy criticism

Surely the role of Labour at the moment is to disrupt

The election is in 2020 nothing will change that in reality and it is all about reinvigorating Labour supporters and voters

Corbyn may be able to do that in the medium term and are his so-called 'false hope' policies a bit problem for a country hoping for something - false or not

All the Tory and UKIP promises are false and that hasn't stopped them doing better than expected in recent years......

As we are continually told winning is everything in 2020 - the other 3 candidates (Burnham excepted a bit?) are going for a 'go along with the Tories a bit and then win because we are not scary and then we can tack to the left a bit more than we said' premise. Is this really any more likely to win than a Corbyn more ambitious plan with real opposition to Tory policies? - I am sure he will also realise he cannot be too extreme as well - he is not stupid you know

People want some hope now - it has been taken from them by the Tories - who cares if it is a bit false.....better than the no hope being delivered by the Tories and being indicated by the other candidates

It will be easier for the media to attack him but if he can fight back robustly then it may be in his favour - he doesn't lack courage I don't think....the others don't seem to have much
The job of Labour is to create a winning coalition of voters. The risk is that Corbyn will contaminate the brand with unrealistic policies. So who is that winning coalition, I suggest:

Aspirational low income working middle classes, want a house, can't have one.
The young - continually shafted by Osborne but they don't vote.
Precariat new working class - undercut by immigrants (they believe) tending UKIP.
Poorer pensioners fearful of social care and the future.
Young working families - worried about education and their kids futures.

The pitch a new deal and fair shout for the masses.

Avoid barnacles on the boat (e.g. CND) cost votes, not core message. Don't commit to so much spending these people worry about stability and taxes, don't back dubious trendy left wing causes (usually covers stuff like censorship - Jowell take note, or positive discrimination or pro Russia foreign policy).

And hammer the government while building that coalition and showing economic credibility.

The message is always we won't screw it up and we are on your side.

Don't use the word 'aspirational' please!

The problem is that Labour did and does have economic policies that are right...it is the Tories that should not have credibility. We need to point that out to the voters in clear words. The right wing of the Labour Party are the ones who have destroyed the credibility by agreeing with the bloody Tories every chance they get with respect to austerity

It was the regulatory lack of oversight that caused the problem and bank reckless lending.......not overspending.

This smacks of defensiveness...the lack of confidence in the message...'we won't screw up' - do you think that will win anything?

I keep on saying Corbyn would definitely not be my first choice and only Burnham comes into play...the other two have run terrible campaigns

Labour had a really good leader and he was undermined by the right who wanted him to be like the Tories.....Burnham will go the same way I am convinced.

It is the right of the party that did for us since 2005 - civil liberties, Iraq, bank regulation, undermining of leadership etc but it is they who are still crying out now

The problem is not now....it was the wasted years up to 2015 where Labour failed to present a confident and coherent message...after the 2015 debacle it means we need to have a radical change of direction...starting with opposing!

Sorry for the rant TE as I know you and I are on the same page for many things but I think you are fighting a losing battle.....the fault is not Corbyn's, the fault is not those who will vote for him, the fault is not Burnham's (a likeable politician) - it is the fault of those people in the party establishment and the ex-politicos who failed to give Miliband the support and room he needed in the last Parliament and have now failed to come up with a credible replacement....it was them that forced him out and blamed him for being 'too left wing'!

Even now they snipe away at Corbyn and try to bring back Brown and Miliband to slag him off....men they despised and undermined throughout their years as leader. I think Brown will give a more considered speech than they expect...I hope he does.
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Another thing I notice with Corbyn's energy policy is that he doesn't mention increasing petrol duty. Even thought that's the most obvious remedy to some of the problems he raises.

He's probably right that it's electoral poison. But it puts him to the Right of John Major and Norman Lamont who brought in the fuel duty escalator and Blair who stuck with it for 3 years till the fuel strike- I think he was probably correct that it had the potential to flatten the government.

Principle, compromise. It's a funny old game.
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by LadyCentauria »

HindleA wrote:Morning
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ho ... 54796.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;


Right to Buy: 40% of homes sold under Government scheme are being let out privately
From that article, a quote from someone from a housing association:
“One in four sales is made to someone who is in receipt of housing benefit, so they are often not the person buying the home. It can be friends and family, but it is also companies who offer to purchase the home on their behalf.
(my bold)

In at least some housing associations and councils the practise is to revoke the leasehold/sale should a business be found to be involved. Or, rather, I know it's the case for the schemes that some HAs run, themselves, and I'm pretty certain that it covers RTB, too. If possible it should be stamped out everywhere. It's believed to be one of the ways that the son and daughter-in-law of Mrs. Thatcher's Housing Minister, Gow, built up their rather large ex-council property portfolio. I well remember signs in newsagents' windows saying, "Entitled to Right To Buy? Can't afford it? We can help and guarantee to buy it from you at for least £100,000 - and you get to carry on living there until you're entitled to sell!" People even knocked doors trying to drum up business like that, and that was when flats around here were worth around, or a bit above, £60,000... Timely reminder, that article!
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howsillyofme1
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by howsillyofme1 »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:
But if he got into Government then it means the Tories won't be

Your argument is confused; is it that we cannot win with him as leader or he can win as leader but the policies will be far too ambitious?
It's kind of both- I don't think he will win, because as Simon Wren-Lewis says, he offers easy hits that distract from where he's right (he is right about austerity).

If he did win, I think some of what he promises would get junked as impractical or too expensive. He'd end up probably not all that different to Cooper or Burnham. So I go for them over him. But if he were leader in 2020, I'd still very much like him to win.

To be fair to him, he's not the only one to make very optimistic sounding claims. Cooper talks about 2m more highly skilled jobs, which as far as I can tell, pop up because we spend more money on science.

The difference is pretty subjective, I have to be honest. Corbyn's over-optimistic stuff crystalizes general doubts I have about him.

On your earlier point, I think he'll be very good at opposing the current government. He's now a pubic figure, and the public like him. He'll be listened to, and he'd have torn into the Budget exactly as Labour should be doing.

A very considered post Tubby...'tis why I like it here. I find so much interesting debate and comment even when we have disagreements

Disagreements I may add that are fairly minor (although nonetheless important) compared to the large areas we agree on

Thank you
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by ohsocynical »

ohsocynical wrote:
One of the most enduring and longstanding myths of British politics is that Labour lost the 1983 general election because it was too left wing, fighting the election on a manifesto that ensured it was unelectable. In words that have become engraved in the nation's history, Labour's own Gerald Kaufman described the '83 Labour manifesto as 'the longest suicide note in history', which is how it is still regarded over three decades on.

It is a myth that has been doing the rounds in the context of a Labour leadership campaign that has seen a surge in support and momentum for Jeremy Corbyn on a platform of anti austerity, wealth redistribution, and a vision for the country and the role of government that has succeeded in exciting and energising people who'd long become accustomed to a Labour Party that had surrendered to right wing nostrums on the economy, welfare, and foreign policy.


http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/john-wi ... ign=buffer
Interesting.
I've just read it again. I've bookmarked it. I can't remember much about '83. Suffered badly from depression in those days so much of the past is a blur.
All I can say is, 32 years but it's as if there's been a pause in time. The same problems caused by the Tories. The same attacks by the right wing press.
We hang the petty thieves and appoint the great ones to public office. – Aesop
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

To be fair to Corbyn, it's clear that he's read a fair bit on the subject and ignored his brother (who is an egregious climate change denier). I wasn't aware of this till he mentioned it.

the Committee on Climate Change
found that a virtually carbon free power sector by 2030 would cost consumers £23 billion less than relying
predominantly on gas during the 2020s,ix a
Quite a decent saving, before we've even got to our destination!

Problem of course is that this is the same Committee of Climate report had 40% nuclear, which Corbyn rules out. So straightaway, that £23bn figure doesn't work.
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by howsillyofme1 »

Tubby Isaacs wrote:To be fair to Corbyn, it's clear that he's read a fair bit on the subject and ignored his brother (who is an egregious climate change denier). I wasn't aware of this till he mentioned it.

the Committee on Climate Change
found that a virtually carbon free power sector by 2030 would cost consumers £23 billion less than relying
predominantly on gas during the 2020s,ix a
Quite a decent saving, before we've even got to our destination!

Problem of course is that this is the same Committee of Climate report had 40% nuclear, which Corbyn rules out. So straightaway, that £23bn figure doesn't work.
Don't care if his energy policy isn't coherent yet....he has 5 years to come up with something that is

More worrying the current Government have nothing remotely coherent and they are the ones implementing things........voters will not be concerned what Labour Party policy is yet...we can flat bat that and say it is in development as we are 5 years from and election.

He can though point out why the current Government who should have a fully developed policy are a bunch of incompetents and where, in general terms, he is looking. I am sure Labour will start making the case for renewables whoever is leader.....there is no other option is there....and nuclear is not a panacea either, especially when it is provided by the Chinese!
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

howsillyofme1 wrote: A very considered post Tubby...'tis why I like it here. I find so much interesting debate and comment even when we have disagreements

Disagreements I may add that are fairly minor (although nonetheless important) compared to the large areas we agree on

Thank you
And thanks to you. Disagreements are cordial, and lots we agree on.

Though I think Corbyn wouldn't withstand the attention as leader- it's very hard for anybody who has been around at all, Burnham gets it too- he could be a huge asset as more of a "libero", "holding feet to the fire" as Sturgeon mischievously said of herself and Labour.
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

Yes, agree that he's not writing energy policy for the election now. I wonder how different his policy will look to, for instance, Miliband when he was the Cilmate Change Secretary. I notice he's generous about the Labour government's record, and that's good.
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by ephemerid »

I am watching Only Men Aloud on S4C - they are marvellous. (And some are very very easy on the eye....)

Signing off now - the 3 Welsh Tenors and the company are launching into La Traviata with Rebecca Evans.

Fantastic.

Laters!
"Poverty is the worst form of violence" - Mahatma Gandhi
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by Tubby Isaacs »

ohsocynical wrote:
ohsocynical wrote:
One of the most enduring and longstanding myths of British politics is that Labour lost the 1983 general election because it was too left wing, fighting the election on a manifesto that ensured it was unelectable. In words that have become engraved in the nation's history, Labour's own Gerald Kaufman described the '83 Labour manifesto as 'the longest suicide note in history', which is how it is still regarded over three decades on.

It is a myth that has been doing the rounds in the context of a Labour leadership campaign that has seen a surge in support and momentum for Jeremy Corbyn on a platform of anti austerity, wealth redistribution, and a vision for the country and the role of government that has succeeded in exciting and energising people who'd long become accustomed to a Labour Party that had surrendered to right wing nostrums on the economy, welfare, and foreign policy.


http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/john-wi ... ign=buffer
Interesting.
I've just read it again. I've bookmarked it. I can't remember much about '83. Suffered badly from depression in those days so much of the past is a blur.
All I can say is, 32 years but it's as if there's been a pause in time. The same problems caused by the Tories. The same attacks by the right wing press.
Lots of it was the disunity rather than rejection of policy, though there was some of that as well. And of course the Falklands (where Foot was supportive of the government, which is often forgotten). And the one-off SDP, who at one time looked like they'd beat the Tories as well.

Healey holding off Benn was probably the start of the tide turning back the other way, and policies by 1983 were compromises. Unilateral disarmament but remaining in NATO, for instance.
AnatolyKasparov
Prime Minister
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Re: Friday 14th August 2015

Post by AnatolyKasparov »

Six local council byelections yesterday:

Falkirk - SNP hold, but yet again with a huge swing from Labour; 23% in this case, and given that they topped the poll here both in 2012 and 2007 (the division splitting 2Nat/1Lab/1Indy on both occasions) it meant they triumphed with over two thirds of the vote on this occasion. Labour's slump was likely made worse by their candidate being censured earlier this week for "sectarian" anti-Catholic material on social media, and they were almost caught by the Tories who advanced significantly more than doubling their share - they were likely also helped by the absence of any Independent this time in an area where they have recently polled well. Greens stood here for the first time in recent years, but had to settle for just under 5%.

Powys - LibDem gain from Tory in a seat they have not contested in recent years. Then again, nor did anybody in 2004 and 2008 when this seat saw an Independent elected unopposed - in 2012 the Tories stood and won, just outpolling both the Independents combined. This time round they were down by about 10% and the yellows narrowly edged them out - the second placed Independent three years ago tried their luck again, but saw their own share down compared to then (and hugely down compared to the combined Indy vote) Greens, again, managed 5% on their debut here.

Exeter DC - a key marginal ward in recent years saw a Tory gain from Labour by just six votes - both saw their share significantly rise on last year when Labour narrowly edged this seat which has normally been close in recent years (narrow Labour wins in 2004, 2010 - by just four votes - and 2014 and Tories emerging on top in 2006 and 2008; only Labour's win in 2012 was fairly comfortable) but the Tories benefited just a touch more. The reason was a collapse by UKIP from nearly 20% last time to just 8% now (fitting in generally with their recent showings in these contests of course) whilst the minor parties failed by contrast to take advantage - LibDems (little changed) just pipping the Greens (slightly down) by a handful of votes, followed by an Independent with a derisory share in last.

North Lanarkshire - another SNP "hold" and another big swing from Labour, almost exactly 20% in this instance in a division that has long been strong for the reds despite splitting 2Lab/2Nat last time due to poor vote balancing from the former (in 2007 it split 3Lab/1SNP, which was actually more reflective of the votes cast) and the SNP managed just over 50% thus obviating the need for transfers. Tories third again, with just a small increase this time but well ahead of the also rans - Scottish Socialist (not so often seen at elections these days) UKIP and lastly LibDems with just 1%.

Warwickshire CC - Tory hold, with a healthy swing to them since 2013 in a division which forms part of Nuneaton (the "new Basildon") illustrating that Labour is a bit out of favour in these parts at present. This has always been pretty safe for the Tories (in 2005 as well as two years ago) but the margin this time wasn't much lower than in Labour's low water mark in 2009. UKIP stood here for the first time (this was a relatively weak area for them in terms of numbers in 2013) but scored a relatively unexciting 13%. Greens by way of contrast have some organisation in these parts, but saw their share plummet by some two thirds since last time - to that now familiar "base" of around 5% again.

Caerphilly - Labour hold with just over half the vote, a slight decrease since 2012 but still maintaining their dominant position here. Independents came second here then, but did not stand now and this seemed to help Plaid who almost exactly doubled their score and came just ahead of UKIP who had one of their better showings since the GE - nearly 24% in a seat they have not contested previously. They may also have been helped by the absence of a Tory - they dutifully stand here at most elections, even if to limited effect.

Four contests next week - including an unusual Tuesday poll.
Last edited by AnatolyKasparov on Sat 15 Aug, 2015 12:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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