Friday 4th December 2015

[AnatolyKasparov]

Along with the Oldham excitement, five local council byelections yesterday:

South Kesteven DC - Tory hold, though their share fell from over two thirds in May (the first poll here after boundary changes) to just over half now as this vacancy saw increased competition from then - two Tories had been elected with one Labour candidate the sole opposition on GE day. This time round an Independent took second place, albeit very distantly, as Labour saw their own share halved (though there was a tiny Tory to Labour swing overall) UKIP also intervened but had to be content with last of four, though still with nearly 14%.

Guildford DC - Tory hold with a small drop in their vote since GE day in a ward that has always returned 3 Tories in recent years. Second was taken by the LibDems (competitive here in 2003, but then fell away and did not even contest 2011 that was a straight Tory/Lab fight - though even that was an advance on a subsequent 2013 by-election, when the Tories were not opposed at all) as they increased by 7 points on May. This enabled them to overtake the runners up then, the localist (and rather self-explanatory) Guildford Greenbelt group who saw their share nearly halved. UKIP stood for the first time at this level and polled 12%, condemning Labour (down 5 points) to the wooden spoon spot.

Malvern Hills DC - Tory hold, down on May but still close to two thirds overall. We then saw a straight fight with UKIP, but even that had been positively bountiful competition compared to previous contests here - a Tory elected unopposed in 2011, 2007 and 2003! Very unusual even in rural areas in recent years, but this time round the choice was widened still further and saw Labour take second with a rather decent 23% - overtaking UKIP who saw a double figure drop.

Shropshire - Tory hold in another area that has seen fairly limited electoral competition in recent years. The first unitary election in 2009 saw a straight Tory/LibDem fight which saw the blue team win by about 70/30, the last election in 2013 saw Labour intervene and take a respectable second as the LibDems slumped. Both the "big two" saw double figure drops now (again, very little overall swing) as the LibDems revived and a 12 point increase saw them only narrowly remain in third. Further fragmentation saw UKIP and Greens enter the field, taking not much more thand 10% between them but the former just beating the latter into last spot. As with a few byelections recently, demographics here might have suggested a better UKIP performance?

Newham - Labour hold with over 70% of the vote and a significant increase on last year, keeping their 100% representation here. A very distant second indeed was taken by the LibDems - 9% in their first electoral outing here this millennium. This was enough for them to overtake the Tories who saw their share more than halved (double figure drops on both 2014 and 2010) Greens 4th, doing rather less well than their previous showing here back in 2002, followed by UKIP (less than 4% in naturally unpromising territory) and finally an Independent with a derisory score. One reason for Labour's good showing might be the absence of any "far left" candidate - Respect pressed quite hard here in their "annus mirabilis" of 2006 and even last time a TUSC candidate performed rather more respectably than the norm.

Seven contests next week - including a "double header" in Bournemouth after a May result there was annulled.

[ohsocynical]

Tony McNulty @Tony_McNulty
Good to hear @tom_watson dismiss Momentum as a 'bit of an rabble' and an 'irrelevance' to the Labour Party. Must keep an eye on them though

CallEineNow! ‏@KrustyAllslopp 4 hrs4 hours ago
CallEineNow! Retweeted Tony McNulty
Watson owes the Momentum Activists an apology. Their efforts helped #JimMcMahon win in #Oldham CallEineNow! added

,

Methinks some of our MPs have been in their gilded cages a bit too long. They really, really need to do a re-think.

[Eric_WLothian]

A man was walking home one evening when he suddenly remembered it was his daughter's birthday and he had promised her a hamster. He dashed into the pet shop "I need a hamster for a birthday present". The pet shop owner was very apologetic. "I've only one old hamster left - and I doubt whether it will see the night out". Never mind said the man. "I'll just have to take it and hope for the best".
The next morning the hamster was, indeed, dead and the man popped into the pet shop to tell the owner. "All is not lost" said the owner. "Here's a recipe to make jam of it".
It sounded strange but the man followed the recipe and as you might expect, the jam tasted foul - so foul that he threw it out of the window. Next morning there was a beautiful rose bush where the jam had landed.
The man told the pet shop owner what had happened. "Hmm... a rose bush you say. That's strange - you usually get tulips from hamsterjam".

[rebeccariots2]

Wish I wasn't agreeing with George Monbiot on Any Questions now - he's saying something has gone horribly wrong when MPs in the Labour Party - Tom Watson - are attacking members of the party for exercising their democratic rights - i.e. taking part in a peaceful protest outside Stella Creasy's constituency office along with members of other parties and those who belong to none.

[rebeccariots2]

The Ukip rep on Any Questions is unintentionally very funny - she's sinking in a very loud and undignified manner.

[ohsocynical]

Wish I wasn't agreeing with George Monbiot on Any Questions now - he's saying something has gone horribly wrong when MPs in the Labour Party - Tom Watson - are attacking members of the party for exercising their democratic rights - i.e. taking part in a peaceful protest outside Stella Creasy's constituency office along with members of other parties and those who belong to none.

The stupid thing is. He and Whatever They're Called are saying they have a right to vote how they want even if the majority of the electorate have an opposing opinion which is fair enough, but don't like it if the electorate claim the right to peacefully protest and do.

People are coming to the end of their tether. What does he/they they expect?

I was going to say what do they want, but we know that already.

[TechnicalEphemera]

Serious question.

What is an occasional table the rest of the time?

[ohsocynical]

Dear oh dear.

Whatever They're Called are still rumbling away in the background aren't they.

[rebeccariots2]

Serious question.

What is an occasional table the rest of the time?

A foot rest?

[ohsocynical]

Wish I wasn't agreeing with George Monbiot on Any Questions now - he's saying something has gone horribly wrong when MPs in the Labour Party - Tom Watson - are attacking members of the party for exercising their democratic rights - i.e. taking part in a peaceful protest outside Stella Creasy's constituency office along with members of other parties and those who belong to none.

Painful to watch?

[rebeccariots2]

Wish I wasn't agreeing with George Monbiot on Any Questions now - he's saying something has gone horribly wrong when MPs in the Labour Party - Tom Watson - are attacking members of the party for exercising their democratic rights - i.e. taking part in a peaceful protest outside Stella Creasy's constituency office along with members of other parties and those who belong to none.

Painful to watch?

Painful to listen to. I've just been reflecting that we are in danger of trying to suppress exactly the kinds of freedoms that are fundamental to our values and way of life and which are held up as being under attack by ISIL / Daesh and given as part of the reason why we must crush / destroy them. I'm not condoning threats - verbal or written - of any kind against individual or groups but something is not OK when it's not considered legitimate for people to express their sorrow and anger about something as serious as participating in war.

[TechnicalEphemera]

Some thoughts on Oldham.

Firstly Jim is probably the absolute gold standard local candidate. You want a local candidate with an OBE for services to the community.

UKIP really are stuffed, they ran what seems to have been a shambolic campaign and in reacting to the loss have made things even worse. Given the backdrop of terrorism and refugees they should have done much much better. This looks like the beginning of the end for them as a challenger, they seem too toxic to too many people to ever win. Still a problem, but perhaps never going to be winners.

No breakdown seems to have been done on which areas voted for which candidates, presumably the data isn't out there. That is a shame because if as seems likely with that result Labours vote amongst the white working class at least held up, the BBC have some explaining to do as they parroted the UKIP narrative.

This doesn't say much about Corbyn, other than to suggest he isn't as problematic with the UKIP inclined Labour voter as some (myself included) expected he might be.

The assumption this would be close came from the Labour campaign and what seems to have been an invented UKIP poll. The media ran with that, however UKIP seemed to have believed it themselves spending a load of cash on a no hope seat.

AK here, Smithson and Sparrow all seem to have a reasonable take on it. Hodges consoled himself by hammering his other pet hate Farage.

[ohsocynical]

An early night for me. Listening to the wind, while tucked up with a good book. What could be better.

Mr Ohso just rang and will probably be home on Sunday. They're gradually disconecting him from various gadgets, he's been walking around a lot today, but tomorrow they need to see if his plumbing's working properly and he can cope with stairs...We live one flight up so that's esssential otherwise he'd have to sleep in the hall.

[TechnicalEphemera]

Wish I wasn't agreeing with George Monbiot on Any Questions now - he's saying something has gone horribly wrong when MPs in the Labour Party - Tom Watson - are attacking members of the party for exercising their democratic rights - i.e. taking part in a peaceful protest outside Stella Creasy's constituency office along with members of other parties and those who belong to none.

Painful to watch?

Painful to listen to. I've just been reflecting that we are in danger of trying to suppress exactly the kinds of freedoms that are fundamental to our values and way of life and which are held up as being under attack by ISIL / Daesh and given as part of the reason why we must crush / destroy them. I'm not condoning threats - verbal or written - of any kind against individual or groups but something is not OK when it's not considered legitimate for people to express their sorrow and anger about something as serious as participating in war.

I don't think he is talking about suppressing peoples right to protest, just suggesting Labour Party members shouldn't be targeting Labour MPs in that way. If you want to do so, feel free to leave the party. The Labour councillor Creasy took exception to should most definitely be expelled. Maybe if people stopped shouting about deselection everything would calm down a bit and some trust could be restored.

[HindleA]

@ohso TE may have an occasional table,you could use.

[RogerOThornhill]

Evening all...

Updated: Leeds school is placed in special measures as Ofsted warns of breakdown between academy trust and governors

http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/mai ... -1-7607716

A TROUBLED LEEDS school has been placed in special measures in an Ofsted report which warned the relationship between the academy trust responsible for it and the school’s governing body had broken down.

The education watchdog has rated the David Young Community Academy in Seacroft as inadequate in all inspection areas.

The report has been published today as it was confirmed that Ros McMullen the school’s executive principal and the chief executive of the LEAF Academy Trust was leaving her post.

One for the "school autonomy not all its cracked up to be" file.

The end bit is interesting given her high profile nationally.

The Bishop Slater said: “Ros McMullen has decided to pursue other career interests outside of the LEAF Trust and is currently on gardening leave until she leaves the Trust at the end of this school term, on December 31. We would like to thank Ros for the contribution she has made in establishing David Young Community Academy and the LEAF Trust and wish her well for the future.”

Pretty serious stuff given that today is Dec 4th! She couldn't have remained in post for the rest of term?

[PorFavor]

Evening all...

Updated: Leeds school is placed in special measures as Ofsted warns of breakdown between academy trust and governors

http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/mai ... -1-7607716

A TROUBLED LEEDS school has been placed in special measures in an Ofsted report which warned the relationship between the academy trust responsible for it and the school’s governing body had broken down.

The education watchdog has rated the David Young Community Academy in Seacroft as inadequate in all inspection areas.

The report has been published today as it was confirmed that Ros McMullen the school’s executive principal and the chief executive of the LEAF Academy Trust was leaving her post.

One for the "school autonomy not all its cracked up to be" file.

The end bit is interesting given her high profile nationally.

The Bishop Slater said: “Ros McMullen has decided to pursue other career interests outside of the LEAF Trust and is currently on gardening leave until she leaves the Trust at the end of this school term, on December 31. We would like to thank Ros for the contribution she has made in establishing David Young Community Academy and the LEAF Trust and wish her well for the future.”

Pretty serious stuff given that today is Dec 4th! She couldn't have remained in post for the rest of term?

Gardening leave from the LEAF Trust? The jokes just keep coming . . . .

[RogerOThornhill]

Gardening leave from the LEAF Trust? The jokes just keep coming . . . .

They should have called a spade a spade and said that she'd been sacked...

[rebeccariots2]

Painful to watch?

Painful to listen to. I've just been reflecting that we are in danger of trying to suppress exactly the kinds of freedoms that are fundamental to our values and way of life and which are held up as being under attack by ISIL / Daesh and given as part of the reason why we must crush / destroy them. I'm not condoning threats - verbal or written - of any kind against individual or groups but something is not OK when it's not considered legitimate for people to express their sorrow and anger about something as serious as participating in war.

I don't think he is talking about suppressing peoples right to protest, just suggesting Labour Party members shouldn't be targeting Labour MPs in that way. If you want to do so, feel free to leave the party. The Labour councillor Creasy took exception to should most definitely be expelled. Maybe if people stopped shouting about deselection everything would calm down a bit and some trust could be restored.

I think we've almost always got to preface our references to 'people' with 'some' at the moment. It's all too easy to lump everyone together these days and it doesn't help. I've no idea how many people are shouting about deselection - whether it's a small minority - or quite a lot - or whether they are all Labour members or not, or from other parties / groups - or none - or if they can even be called 'Corbynistas' or 'Corbynites'. I voted for Corbyn but I don't think of myself as blindly following him regardless. Some Labour MPs seemed to be convinced there would be mass intent to deselect them as soon as Corbyn became leader ... that amplification doesn't help either.

[RogerOThornhill]

An octopus is casually swimming around in the ocean and comes across a very ill looking squid.
"What's up?"
"Ugh. I feel terrible. Not sure why"
"OK, come along with me"
Anyway so off they swim and come across another octopus
"Hiya, here's that sick squid I owe you..."

[Tubby Isaacs]

Just in case you were feeling too optimistic about Corbyn.



Can't he let these clowns go?

[JustMom]

Two fly's meet on the dog,
Ist fly,haven't seen you for ages,
2nd fly,no I've been on the sick.

[HindleA]

Ainsley Harriott and Lenny Henry-who knew they were the same person?

[HindleA]

" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

What's Up with Benefit Tourism?
National Institute of Economic and Social Research

[TechnicalEphemera]

Just in case you were feeling too optimistic about Corbyn.



Can't he let these clowns go?

FFS

Stop The War - who came out with some vitriol at his own MPs and he is going to a fund raiser. All that shit they were shouting about Hilary Benn, egged on by George F Galloway, who basically dragged a Labour candidate through mud to try and stop her getting elected.

Disgusting organisation.

Seriously please tell me this is a wind up.

[HindleA]

Afraid not

[HindleA]

Mike Smithson,making the point,I was going to make re.voting.Voting at a poll as least as "fraud" subsceptible as postal.Quite a few postal votes were rejected and there has been no formal complaints regarding it in Oldham,in short,indisputable bollock's.

[HindleA]

Though a question remains over a man voting in the name of Lenny Henry,wearing a chef's hat.

[HindleA]

Back to work Monday,unsure of designation-hard-working taxpayer/benefit recipient(pension not State),sitting at home doing nothing while I go to work.So confusing.

[rebeccariots2]

This is mean - but I can understand why he's laughing. Who decided on that captioning ...?

Suzanne Evans Former Ukip Leader.jpg (38.76 KiB) Viewed 9350 times

[Hobiejoe]

So where are my jokes?

Helloooooooo!!!!!!!!!

What do you call a deer with no eyes? No idea.
What do you call a deer with no legs and no eyes? Still no idea.

What do you call a man with a spade in his head? Doug.

I'm here all week. Have you tried the prawns?

Evening.

So...what do you call a man without a spade in his head? Douglas.

What do you call a man with a seagull on his head? Cliff.

What do you call a man with a rabbit up his bum? Warren.

What do you call a man with no arms and no legs in a swimming pool? Bob.

What do you call a man with no arms and no legs in a swimming pool swimming lengths? No idea, but I bet he's a real clever dick.


Sorry...

[TechnicalEphemera]

This is mean - but I can understand why he's laughing. Who decided on that captioning ...?

Suzanne Evans Former Ukip Leader.jpg

Brilliant isn't it.

After Oldham maybe Farages could read

Leader of UKIP (Retired and bar)

[TechnicalEphemera]

Serious question.

What is an occasional table the rest of the time?

A foot rest?

Could be, I am going with - an obstacle.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Crikey. Almost a sighting of Johnson's highly paid Education and Culture crony, Munira Mirza. She was on £127k in 2012.

http://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Lega ... don-s-pubs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

It's about London pubs closing, and it's suggested a "night time mayor" (ie spokesman) could help.

Mirza agrees, or at least her "special advisor" does- how the heck does that work? She's a crony herself. Sounds like Mirza wasn't even at the meeting.

Couldn't Mirza do this job herself?

[Tubby Isaacs]

I miss Boriswatch.

[HindleA]

Must invest in new glasses,I misread that as Baywatch.

[TechnicalEphemera]

Must invest in new glasses,I misread that as Baywatch.

Either way best call in an air strike.

It's the only way to be sure.