Tuesday 26th August 2014

[rebeccariots2]

Indeed. I've yet to find out from the 'yes' camp just how they're going to force another sovereign state into a currency union when said state has already said it ain't gonna happen. What's Salmond going to do? Use harsh language? Call them Sassenach bastards? The rUK government will shrugs its shoulders, and watch the carnage.

"What's Salmond going to do?" Easy - shout very loudly over any reply he doesn't like. (It worked yesterday).

It worked for those who already thought it worked ... but probably very hard for anyone undecided to decipher a decent argument in Salmond's rant. I hadn't ever watched more than a quick news snippet of Salmond before - have to say I sat there in a kind of horrified trance. He was like one of the characters out of Psychoville in his exaggerated everything. And like yahyah I found the very obvious choreography - coming out from behind his lectern and taking centre stage every time he said his piece - curdling. Snake oil salesman. But obviously some people find him likeable and, even stranger, convincing enough to vote for.

If Scotland does actually vote YES ... I wonder what will happen in the 18 months negotiation period before a formal exit - will we see a fair few businesses shifting their bases asap?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Yes, I think it would inevitably start with a lower rating, but it's not all that bad as plan B. And if that becomes a possibility, the rUK would worry about transaction costs.

Which might lead things towards a currency union again. Problem with that is the rUK would want to prescribe spending limits, which blows out of the water all the "we'd be fighting back against Thatcherism" stuff.

I think the Yes Campaign have made a real hash of the question unnecessarily.

[Eric_WLothian]

Trouble is, Salmond conflates using the pound with having a currency union. There has never been any doubt that Scotland could use the pound (or, as Alistair Darling said, the dollar, the yen, the rouble...) The SNP misdirection appears to have been successful, judging by the response of their acolytes last night - cheers when AD said "of course Scotland could use the pound", as if it was some sort of breakthrough.

Of course, if we use it without a union, the ScotGov would have to build up reserves, either by borrowing or cutting services, in order to underpin the Scottish financial industry (and the first £85,000 of savings accounts).

Only 3 levels of quotes allowed - apologies if I've mucked them up!

Indeed, it's about the Bank of England, not the pound. But I think enough people understand that and the problems.

It's been a bizarre muck up. Nationalists used to point (quite rightly) to Denmark as small country doing well. It's got its own currency, stayed out of the Euro etc.

Surely a Scottish currency was a perfectly plausible plan B?

I think anything other than the pound would be a vote loser, which is why Salmond is prevaricating until after the referendum. (He once referred to the pound as the millstone round Scotland's neck)!
A new currency would involve transaction charges between Scotland and E/W/NI businesses. With 70% of Scottish exports heading south of the border this would be an expensive option. Having said that, it may well be the least worst option as a currency union has (quite correctly) been ruled out by all the Westminster parties. (This is possibly the first, and only, time I have agreed with George Osborne).

[ErnstRemarx]

Faisal Islam tried to ask Salmond about the currency issue on Sky News earlier, only to be told to move on, by Salmond, no change there then.

I love that "move on" line.

Cameron used it when Ashcroft was revealed still to be a tax exile. Blair did it a lot too

The whole currency thing - in itself - is enough to doom the 'yes' vote in my opinion. If you can't tell Scots, about three weeks before they vote, what the currency's going to be, you're on a very sticky wicket.

I agree.

It's made the No people look pretty negative and repetitive and they might lose some support for that. But it should be a banker that make victory safe.

Trouble is, Salmond conflates using the pound with having a currency union. There has never been any doubt that Scotland could use the pound (or, as Alistair Darling said, the dollar, the yen, the rouble...) The SNP misdirection appears to have been successful, judging by the response of their acolytes last night - cheers when AD said "of course Scotland could use the pound", as if it was some sort of breakthrough.

Of course, if we use it without a union, the ScotGov would have to build up reserves, either by borrowing or cutting services, in order to underpin the Scottish financial industry (and the first £85,000 of savings accounts).

Only 3 levels of quotes allowed - apologies if I've mucked them up!

Hopefully, I've just adjusted the board's controls so that unlimited nesting should be possible - although logging out and back in might be advisable.

The very real question remains about just how Scotland would function with a currency over which it had no control. It would always - let's not beat about the bush - have to run a fiscal surplus, which implies some pretty interesting hard selling of spending cuts to the Scottish people. Not, I suggest, what they imagine they're voting for. The question of lender of last resort is still another that sterlingisation brings up. The rUK can just shrug and say "not us guv", which then puts Scotland's economy in a very dodgy situation.

No, the whole thing's so ridiculous, I can't believe that otherwise sane Scots would vote for Salmond's fantasy economics: it's just too depressing to contemplate. That they might allow a romantic vision of an independent Scotland to trump their common sense is a ghastly thought, although I'm sure sales of Braveheart might briefly soar on the 19th September.

[ErnstRemarx]

Agreed -saying "You'll have to trust me that we can work something out" isn't good enough for something so fundamental to everyday lives.

They should have either got an undertaking from the Bank of England or have a plan B which people know what it is.

Indeed. I've yet to find out from the 'yes' camp just how they're going to force another sovereign state into a currency union when said state has already said it ain't gonna happen. What's Salmond going to do? Use harsh language? Call them Sassenach bastards? The rUK government will shrugs its shoulders, and watch the carnage.

Am I right in thinking that such a currency union would have to go to a referendum? Good luck getting the British public to agree to the principle of bailing out a country that just seceded.

No need for a referendum. Scotland would be a separate state - all the rUK would need is for the government to say 'no dice' and that's that. If it did go to a referendum, I rather suspect that Wee Eck and his "we'll have the assets but none of the debt" stance might somewhat weaken the appeal of agreeing to a deal that can only really suit Scotland as opposed to the three countries it's just left.

[letsskiptotheleft]

Election Data's take on Rotherham.

http://election-data.blogspot.co.uk/201 ... m.html?m=1

[Eric_WLothian]

If Scotland does actually vote YES ... I wonder what will happen in the 18 months negotiation period before a formal exit - will we see a fair few businesses shifting their bases asap?

EU rules say that banks must be based in the countries where they do the most business - so the HQ functions of RBS and BoS are likely to head South. Some financial institutions (eg Standard Life) have said they are making contingency plans to move parts of their businesses.

Personally, if there is a 'yes' vote, I don't see negotiations even starting before mid-2015. The Tories have an election to fight! In any case, agreements they make may be overturned or renegotiated by the next government.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Excellent well-informed posts, Eric.

[ErnstRemarx]

Trouble is, Salmond conflates using the pound with having a currency union. There has never been any doubt that Scotland could use the pound (or, as Alistair Darling said, the dollar, the yen, the rouble...) The SNP misdirection appears to have been successful, judging by the response of their acolytes last night - cheers when AD said "of course Scotland could use the pound", as if it was some sort of breakthrough.

Of course, if we use it without a union, the ScotGov would have to build up reserves, either by borrowing or cutting services, in order to underpin the Scottish financial industry (and the first £85,000 of savings accounts).

Only 3 levels of quotes allowed - apologies if I've mucked them up!

Indeed, it's about the Bank of England, not the pound. But I think enough people understand that and the problems.

It's been a bizarre muck up. Nationalists used to point (quite rightly) to Denmark as small country doing well. It's got its own currency, stayed out of the Euro etc.

Surely a Scottish currency was a perfectly plausible plan B?

It would but if they came out and said it then I think they'd immediately be asked what that would mean to the country's credit rating and its ability to borrow money.

Moodys have already stated that they think an independent Scotland would have a lower rating than the rest of the UK.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-s ... s-27247870

However, the report noted that Scotland would risk starting off with a speculative-grade rating - commonly referred to as "junk" - if the independence vote triggered protracted, acrimonious talks between London and Edinburgh.

And there's the rub. The rUK government only has to dig its heels in and Scotland's credit ratings - not rUK's - will start in the pan, with all the implications for borrowing costs and how that would play out across Scottish public services and the wider Scottish economy.

These are real and very profound situations that may well easily arise after a 'yes' vote.

[Eric_WLothian]

Excellent well-informed posts, Eric.

Thanks for that

There's an interesting, and very readable, summing up of the post-independence legal position by Prof Adam Tomkins, Glasgow University chair of public law here:

http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com/2014/01/

in particular he says: "The consequence of this is that institutions of the United Kingdom would automatically become institutions of the rest of the United Kingdom in the event of Scottish independence. Thus, for example, the UK’s security and secret intelligence services would become the security and secret intelligence services of the rest of the UK (“rUK”). The Bank of England is a UK institution. So is the BBC. As UK institutions they would not fall to be apportioned equitably between the rUK and an independent Scotland".

It's also interesting to note that he claims he was treated disrespectfully by an SNP-led Holyrood committee while giving evidence. Seems it's not just Salmond that's 'shouty'!

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/t ... -1-3443833

[rebeccariots2]

Excellent well-informed posts, Eric.

Thanks for that

There's an interesting, and very readable, summing up of the post-independence legal position by Prof Adam Tomkins, Glasgow University chair of public law here:

http://notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com/2014/01/

in particular he says: "The consequence of this is that institutions of the United Kingdom would automatically become institutions of the rest of the United Kingdom in the event of Scottish independence. Thus, for example, the UK’s security and secret intelligence services would become the security and secret intelligence services of the rest of the UK (“rUK”). The Bank of England is a UK institution. So is the BBC. As UK institutions they would not fall to be apportioned equitably between the rUK and an independent Scotland".

It's also interesting to note that he claims he was treated disrespectfully by an SNP-led Holyrood committee while giving evidence. Seems it's not just Salmond that's 'shouty'!

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/t ... -1-3443833

Thanks for those links - very interesting stuff. The latest piece from 'notesfromnorthbritain' (August 2014) is excellent on all the currency / pound stuff. Interesting last para where he says that even the lawyers for Yes have confirmed Darling and Better Together's position is accurate.

[TechnicalEphemera]

Great stuff on Scottish independence.

This site now works on VM and VM - TFL.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Gee, Russia Today is poor.

http://rt.com/uk/182856-britain-poorer-us-state/

UK poorer than Alabama and West Virginia (which is wholly in Appalachia)?

Nope.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united- ... per-capita

Note the source. Fraser Nelson.

[rebeccariots2]

Robert Hutton ‏@RobDotHutton 28s
IT'S FARAGE FOR THANET SOUTH! AND THE CROWD GOES WILD.

We can probably expect an entire Newsnight dedicated to his selection now .........................

[rebeccariots2]

Talk of the devil ...

Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 2m
So Farage will fight the election to become MP for Thanet South ( not that surprising!) but a big moment !

[Tubby Isaacs]

Dylan Wiliam ‏@dylanwiliam 52m
More
Private schools in the Florida Tax Credit Scholarship Program are as variable as—and no better than—public ones

Jeb Bush and his mates handing over tax payers money to private sector. I'm staggered it hasn't been as good as promised.

[RogerOThornhill]

Talk of the devil ...

Laura Kuenssberg ‏@bbclaurak 2m
So Farage will fight the election to become MP for Thanet South ( not that surprising!) but a big moment !

It'd be hilarious if he was beaten by one of his own former colleagues who I would guess has plenty of interesting material that he can bring out at the election.

[AngryAsWell]

Followed a link to a new site called Note my Vote. It's aiming to poll registered users & use the results of those polls to inform user's MP's of their opinions.

It might not amount to much but given that we all complain loudly that our MP's don't listen to public opinion, it might be worth engaging with.

http://www.notemyvote.co.uk/how-it-works

(Late to the proceedings but happy birthday AAW )

Thank you,
Have spent the afternoon making green tomato chutney (not working out to well though - sigh)

[rebeccariots2]

Nicholas Watt ‏@nicholaswatt 3m
John Bercow gives way on Commons job after stern warning from MPs http://gu.com/p/4x3cx/tw via @guardian

Was thinking today that these MPs didn't seem to think there was any problem re having someone from abroad without an in depth knowledge of the UK police procedures running the Metropolitan police - but they really don't like it when the same might be applied to the running of their precious institution ...

[Tubby Isaacs]

Nicholas Watt ‏@nicholaswatt 3m
John Bercow gives way on Commons job after stern warning from MPs http://gu.com/p/4x3cx/tw via @guardian

Was thinking today that these MPs didn't seem to think there was any problem re having someone from abroad without an in depth knowledge of the UK police procedures running things - but they really don't like it when the same might be applied to the running of their precious institution ...

Yep. But kicking black people up the arse (though there is more to Bill Bratton, that's what they wanted) is totally different.

[rebeccariots2]

Nicholas Watt ‏@nicholaswatt 3m
John Bercow gives way on Commons job after stern warning from MPs http://gu.com/p/4x3cx/tw via @guardian

Was thinking today that these MPs didn't seem to think there was any problem re having someone from abroad without an in depth knowledge of the UK police procedures running things - but they really don't like it when the same might be applied to the running of their precious institution ...

Yep. But kicking black people up the arse (though there is more to Bill Bratton, that's what they wanted) is totally different.

Too true. Where do I vote for the appointment of a supreme chief kicker up the arse of politicians (especially coalition politicans)?

[Tubby Isaacs]

Chris Cook of Newsnight is very bravely challenging the 1400 victims figure from Rotherham. Says it's extrapolated from a very small number of cases.
This would still leave a quite appalling trail of abuse, of course.

[Tubby Isaacs]

User Actions
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Bob Harrison
‏@bobharrisonset
@NickLinford @xtophercook One of my NPQH candidates in Rotherham wrote to parents about grooming/trafficking. LA accused him of racism

Roger, what do you make of this?
Asked him if the bloke got in touch with Professor Jay.

[rebeccariots2]

Followed a link to a new site called Note my Vote. It's aiming to poll registered users & use the results of those polls to inform user's MP's of their opinions.

It might not amount to much but given that we all complain loudly that our MP's don't listen to public opinion, it might be worth engaging with.

http://www.notemyvote.co.uk/how-it-works

(Late to the proceedings but happy birthday AAW )

Thank you,
Have spent the afternoon making green tomato chutney (not working out to well though - sigh)

That's disappointing ... these things take a damnably long time don't they. I spent several hours making plum jam yesterday ... one of my annual bribing ploys with Mr Riots. Haven't worked out what I will hope and hint to receive in reciprocation yet ... but it will need to be good. Jam making is not a relaxing pursuit.

[AngryAsWell]

Followed a link to a new site called Note my Vote. It's aiming to poll registered users & use the results of those polls to inform user's MP's of their opinions.

It might not amount to much but given that we all complain loudly that our MP's don't listen to public opinion, it might be worth engaging with.

http://www.notemyvote.co.uk/how-it-works

(Late to the proceedings but happy birthday AAW )

Thank you,
Have spent the afternoon making green tomato chutney (not working out to well though - sigh)

(If anyone can help with the Chutney thing I've posted a cry for help in the pub.... )

[AngryAsWell]

Followed a link to a new site called Note my Vote. It's aiming to poll registered users & use the results of those polls to inform user's MP's of their opinions.

It might not amount to much but given that we all complain loudly that our MP's don't listen to public opinion, it might be worth engaging with.

http://www.notemyvote.co.uk/how-it-works" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

(Late to the proceedings but happy birthday AAW )

Thank you,
Have spent the afternoon making green tomato chutney (not working out to well though - sigh)

That's disappointing ... these things take a damnably long time don't they. I spent several hours making plum jam yesterday ... one of my annual bribing ploys with Mr Riots. Haven't worked out what I will hope and hint to receive in reciprocation yet ... but it will need to be good. Jam making is not a relaxing pursuit.

They do - esp when I had to grow the tomatoes first

[refitman]

Hello all. As you may have noticed, all our custom smilies are back Also, the URL2 that does the blue links is there. Talking of links, they will now open in a new page/tab (only for new posts, it's not retroactive).

[letsskiptotheleft]

The Labour candidate for South Thanet, young lad, wish him well but Farage will have a juggernaut of publicity behind him.

https://twitter.com/willscobie" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Tubby Isaacs]

The Labour candidate for South Thanet, young lad, wish him well but Farage will have a juggernaut of publicity behind him.

https://twitter.com/willscobie" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yeah, he looks pretty much ideal for Fargle to do his career politicians schtick against.

Of course, lots of career politicians are quite effective politicians. But you can have too many of them, and you don't want one in what will be a high profile seat.

[ErnstRemarx]

Interesting stuff on sterlingisation here:

http://devolutionmatters.wordpress.com/ ... -the-game/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[letsskiptotheleft]

But no, shirley this is bad news for Ed Miliband???

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... is-johnson" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

In other news, the mighty MK Dons are beating Man U, Crike, 2 nil now!

[Spacedone]

But no, shirley this is bad news for Ed Miliband???

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... is-johnson" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

In other news, the mighty MK Dons are beating Man U, Crike, 2 nil now!

3-0

[ErnstRemarx]

But no, shirley this is bad news for Ed Miliband???

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... is-johnson" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

In other news, the mighty MK Dons are beating Man U, Crike, 2 nil now!

You'd have to have a heart of stone not to laugh.

[RogerOThornhill]

But no, shirley this is bad news for Ed Miliband???

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... is-johnson" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

In other news, the mighty MK Dons are beating Man U, Crike, 2 nil now!

You'd have to have a heart of stone not to laugh.

Pretty rubbish side out though - no Prem teams like the league Cup and nearly all field a weakened side.

And if it were only someone other than MK Dons...

[ErnstRemarx]

But no, shirley this is bad news for Ed Miliband???

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... is-johnson" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

In other news, the mighty MK Dons are beating Man U, Crike, 2 nil now!

You'd have to have a heart of stone not to laugh.

Pretty rubbish side out though - no Prem teams like the league Cup and nearly all field a weakened side.

And if it were only someone other than MK Dons...

All the same, the second string of any Prem side should be able to duff over a League One side - I noted one or two well known names in the starting lineup, and I'm guessing there are a few more on the bench available to play. 3-0 is quite shocking.

Edit: 4-0. That's beyond embarrassing.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Melanie Phillips ‏@MelanieLatest 16m
Rotherham children victims of 1) abusers 2) negligent officials 3) liberals' sexual licence + antiracist zealotry.

What?!

Maybe liberal sexual licence was responsible for Irish priests running amok in the 30s.

I bet Muslims (who the Right tell us are making the country so much more conservative) were sitting there looking for a signal from licentious white people (who are of course all liberals).

[RogerOThornhill]

All the same, the second string of any Prem side should be able to duff over a League One side - I noted one or two well known names in the starting lineup, and I'm guessing there are a few more on the bench available to play. 3-0 is quite shocking.

Edit: 4-0. That's beyond embarrassing.

League One - same as us.

[AngryAsWell]

The Labour candidate for South Thanet, young lad, wish him well but Farage will have a juggernaut of publicity behind him.

https://twitter.com/willscobie" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yeah, he looks pretty much ideal for Fargle to do his career politicians schtick against.

Of course, lots of career politicians are quite effective politicians. But you can have too many of them, and you don't want one in what will be a high profile seat.

He seems to be doing quite well though, and at least he's out and about, reading his twitter feed

South ThanetLab @ThanetLab · 5h
In the last 13 months we've gained 47 members, 106 supporters & had almost 200 people #volunteer as part of our campaign

[AngryAsWell]

Hello all. As you may have noticed, all our custom smilies are back Also, the URL2 that does the blue links is there. Talking of links, they will now open in a new page/tab (only for new posts, it's not retroactive).

Thank you

[Temulkar]

But no, shirley this is bad news for Ed Miliband???

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... is-johnson" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

In other news, the mighty MK Dons are beating Man U, Crike, 2 nil now!

You'd have to have a heart of stone not to laugh.

Pretty rubbish side out though - no Prem teams like the league Cup and nearly all field a weakened side.

And if it were only someone other than MK Dons...

Swans had six internationals in their second team tonight, we've come a long way in the last ten years.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Wow, look who's opining on Rotherham.

John Mann MP ‏@JohnMannMP 5h
More
No sackings in Rotherham council? Chief Executive should be sacked today for saying this

They've been under the microscope (quite rightly) since 2009 when they got an awful Ofsted. Does Mann think all the bad people are still sitting there?

Don't like him. Gobshite.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Interesting from the LGA.

http://www.lgcplus.com/briefings/servic ... 35.article" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Since the awful Ofsted in 2009, Rotherham's got better inspections since.

I'm not sure if council were doing better and faced other problems or whether Ofsted were clueless.

Don't expect anyone calling for Wilshaw to answer questions of course. Making his organisation work isn't his job.

[RogerOThornhill]

I get the feeling from some of the comments - no now deleted - that there are people would blame Labour in Rotherham more than they blame the evil b'stards that actually did it.

One of the usual suspects was well into his stride about it but found all his posts deleted eventually.

[AngryAsWell]

First full day on new platform - I'm having that as a birthday pressy
Thanks so much for organising this, it works so much better (better together anyone?) lol
I'm off to bed so catch ya all tomorrow
Nite all

[Tubby Isaacs]

I get the feeling from some of the comments - no deleted - that there are people would blame Labour in Rotherham more than they blame the evil b'stards that actually did it.

One of the usual suspects was well into his stride about it but found all his posts deleted eventually.

Of course South Yorks Police was a hotbed of Labour activists.

[pk1]

Followed a link to a new site called Note my Vote. It's aiming to poll registered users & use the results of those polls to inform user's MP's of their opinions.

It might not amount to much but given that we all complain loudly that our MP's don't listen to public opinion, it might be worth engaging with.

http://www.notemyvote.co.uk/how-it-works" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

(Late to the proceedings but happy birthday AAW )

Will have a look!

Is that you, ParrotKeeper as was???

Yes Sir. I took the opportunity of shortening the mouthful of a name I used previously

[Tubby Isaacs]

The Sun: 1400 victims of PC Brigade.

Christ almighty.

[TechnicalEphemera]

Good luck trying to spin Man U's humiliation as Bad News for Ed Miliband.

He is a Leeds supporter.

[Tubby Isaacs]

Gee, nearly said a nasty word there.

Long complex report reduced to one lot of allegations which might well be true, but on the other hand are the easiest get out a social worker seriously at fault has.

[RogerOThornhill]

The Sun: 1400 victims of PC Brigade.

Christ almighty.

Well, to be fair the police were partly at fault...