Friday 13th May 2016

ephemerid · Post by **ephemerid** » Fri 13 May, 2016 6:53 am

Good morning all!

Preposterous article by the execrable Jonathan Jones in the G on Carwyn Jones "crying" in the Senedd. This risible piece is a direct lift from a pathetic Mail article on the same subject. Jones (J) is a poor art critic and a poorer political commentator......

I watched the footage of the Senedd in which Jones (C) wipes his face and brow; I can't decide if he's sweating or has hay fever. He sure ain't crying. He was, as always, totally in control - as evinced by his utter failure to indulge in a nervous breakdown on air.

Jones (J) drones on about the general failures of Labour, slips in a few Dylan (Thomas) and Dylan (Bob) misquotes, contrives to shoehorn in a reference to Corbyn, and insists that Jones (C) was "crying his eyes out" for "Labour's slow and horrible death".

BTL comments veer from the hilarious to the puerile.

Not good, Guardian.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 13 May, 2016 7:19 am

Morning, just popped in while I make porridge.

I missed most of it while hanging out washing, but Radio 4 had a piece on the Tory election expenses.

It was suggested that Cameron's letter to individual voters, warning of Labour & the SNP, could have been an infringement of electoral law because it mentioned the recipient's constituency name several times. The view of a lawyer was there could be a case to answer legally. Lib Dem Adrian Sanders is, I think, wanting it investigated.

Let's hope so. Cameron's [printed] signature was at the bottom of the letter.
Wouldn't it be fun if he had to stand down and couldn't be re-elected for three years.

This is going to run and run. Good, it is about time the Tories were held to account for their sleaze.
If...a big if...anything comes of a complaint about Cameron's letter, why has it taken so long for it to be pointed out ?
Electoral law and enforcement needs more teeth ?

ephemerid · Post by **ephemerid** » Fri 13 May, 2016 7:53 am

Morning, yahyah.

I follow a few barristers on Twitter, and they are saying that offences have already been committed because the Party did not return required information within the time limits, despite being given extensions to those limits. The extensions took the limit up to 6th May (I think).
The EC originally asked for the material on 18th Feb and 23rd March - the Party asked for, and got, extensions to the time limits. Some information applying to the February request was provided, but not all of it; none was provided relating to the request in March.

The Party insists that it spoke to the EC on 29th April, saying that it would provide the requested information by 1pm on 12th May - a week late.
On 28th April, news emerged that there would be a meeting between the EC, the CPS, and various police forces, to discuss whether to apply for more time to investigate the allegations, as the limit of 1 year post-election was very close.
Odd that the very next day the Party apparently said the material would be with the EC on a date a week after that 1 year limit expired; one could be forgiven for thinking that the Party was intent on delaying compliance with their statutory duties so that time would run out.....in fact, the material was not delivered to the EC at 1pm as promised but later in the afternoon.

As far as I can work out (thanks to posts/articles from people more expert than I), there have already been offences in law, relating to the failures to comply with statutory notices issued by the EC.
What I don't know is whether things like the letter you describe above, the way the RoadTrip/BattleBus expenses were accounted for, etc. would comprise an offence and/or stand up in court.

As you say, this is going to run and run - what worries me is that the Tories might just get away with it all if they plead ignorance or something.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 13 May, 2016 7:54 am

yahyah wrote:Morning, just popped in while I make porridge.

I missed most of it while hanging out washing, but Radio 4 had a piece on the Tory election expenses.

It was suggested that Cameron's letter to individual voters, warning of Labour & the SNP, could have been an infringement of electoral law because it mentioned the recipient's constituency name several times. The view of a lawyer was there could be a case to answer legally. Lib Dem Adrian Sanders is, I think, wanting it investigated.

Let's hope so. Cameron's [printed] signature was at the bottom of the letter.
Wouldn't it be fun if he had to stand down and couldn't be re-elected for three years.

This is going to run and run. Good, it is about time the Tories were held to account for their sleaze.
If...a big if...anything comes of a complaint about Cameron's letter, why has it taken so long for it to be pointed out ?
Electoral law and enforcement needs more teeth ?

Well, quite. It always seemed pretty dubious to me, these letters, written directly to constituents in key marginals from the PM. I'm not aware it had ever happened before, but got very little coverage in the press. Given everyone knew about them, that copies had been posted on the internet, I assumed they had to conform to electoral law, even though they seemed pretty rum to me. Why is all this coming out now? Why wasn't the electoral commission all over all this, checking it all out and then reassuring people it was all above board. Given the surprise result and odd goings on its taken a good long while for the losers, the Libdems, Ukip and Labour, to start asking questions. Surely after the nursing home thing with the Tories years ago they would have been at least a bit suspicious of whether they'd been up to something. Many marginals were won by small amounts.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Fri 13 May, 2016 7:55 am

Morning.

'Electoral law and enforcement needs more teeth ?'

The Electoral Commission have been saying that for quite some time. The coalition and Tory governments weren't / aren't listening.

And @Ephie - anyone who has any experience of Carwyn Jones would know straightaway that that pic sure wasn't of him crying. Jonathan Jones is appalling on politics (and probably on art too). Why on earth do the G let him write about it?

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Fri 13 May, 2016 8:01 am

It's interesting that in the most recent election here for the Assembly - where there were no battlebuses - and massive influxes of ground troops from CCHQ - the Tories lost seats rather than gained.

Mr Riots did get a personal letter from Cameron though. I think it went in the bin. We were very surprised that Cameron only thought it worth writing to him - rather than every voter in the household. And we wondered where the data had come from for him to do so - if it wasn't a blanket voter / electoral roll mail out. Wish he'd kept it now and we could check whether he mentioned Paul Davies and local issues.

He's made a dubious art of his letters and missives to the people of the UK. Remember his appalling PR misfire a while back - 'I love ...... shire' press releases sent to just about every local newspaper / media outlet - praising their area and using exactly the same wording?

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Fri 13 May, 2016 8:04 am

ephemerid wrote:
As you say, this is going to run and run - what worries me is that the Tories might just get away with it all if they plead ignorance or something.

You can't just 'plead ignorance' and then run for and be elected as Police & Crime Commissioner as in the case of Alison Hernandez though. Ignorance is no defence ... and all that.

Rebecca · Post by **Rebecca** » Fri 13 May, 2016 8:06 am

Morning all.
YahYah,do you know if the situation in Wales is becoming any clearer yet?
Today was going to be the very sad day that I was going to call the vet out to my poor old dog Charlie,with the view of having him put to sleep.
He has a thing called old dog vestibular disease,has had three episodes in 3 weeks,but the last was the worst.Instead of improving he has become more ill each day.For a week.Yesterday he couldn't walk more than two steps,and that was with me supporting his body.Incontinent.Miserable.
So,this morning I came downstairs with such a heavy heart.
OMG where was he?
I had left him on a vet.fleece in the dining room.Then a guilty looking face peeked round the bathroom door.Eating the cat food.
Then he managed to walk up to me.slowly get out the back door and have a wee before collapsing in a heap.
Scoffed a bowl of dry food in milk with some chicken and cat food seeing as he was so desperate for it!
So no vet today.
Am feeling slightly optimistic,bearing in mind that it's friday the 13th.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Fri 13 May, 2016 8:07 am

Ah ... Mr Riots has just told me he kept Cameron's letter for posterity. It's in the basement. He will dig it out and we'll take a look at it.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Fri 13 May, 2016 8:10 am

Bless you and Charlie rebecca.

Such times with loved pets are really really tough. Just love him and yourself as much as you can for as long as you can - as I know you will.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Fri 13 May, 2016 8:14 am

The personal letters thing is / was a real departure from the norm - no? I can't remember receiving anything like that from another party. Just the standard election literature.

It smacks of the cavalier - I'll do it because I can - attitude that pervades everything Cameron does. No thought for the legal, democratic or ethical basis of his actions. It comes of having privilege and money and not having had to consider things in the same way as others. It's from the same place as his 'because I think I'd be good at it' response to why he should be Prime Minister.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 13 May, 2016 8:15 am

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/200 ... 1.comment1" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

One of the great unsolved mysteries of modern British politics is the role of the Tipp-Ex trick in John Major's narrow victory over Neil Kinnock in the 1992 general election. The Tory triumph was almost entirely unpredicted: opinion pollsters were forced to eat their figures, the BBC was mauled for the "anti-Tory bias" of its exit polls. At the time, the surprise result was hurriedly explained by the power of Major's soapbox and by the false triumphalism of Kinnock's closing rally in Sheffield.

Complaints about the use of proxy votes emerged from St Ives in Cornwall. In an old people's home called Pine Trees, for example, a Conservative supporter helped 17 elderly electors to fill in a form to apply for a postal vote, and then collected all the forms to take them to the council. Which was fine. Without their knowledge, the 17 elderly voters ended up applying for proxy votes, naming various people who were to vote on their behalf - all of whom turned out to be Conservative partyworkers. Some of these workers expressed astonishment when told the story.

Given the history, as referred to in the above 2001 article, and the huge extension of postal voting with few safeguards, you'd think the defeated candidates would have been a bit more on their toes in questioning yet another shock Labour defeat that didn't show in the polls and hinged on just a handful of votes in a few marginals.

ephemerid · Post by **ephemerid** » Fri 13 May, 2016 8:17 am

Ms.Riots - Jonathan Jones is a pisspoor art critic too. I paint a bit; no expert, but I have studied a bit too. I think he's crap.
I have an artist friend who thinks so too. (She's a real artist - http://www.lydiakiernan.co.uk" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; - especially good for those who love horses)

Show and I got letters too - straight to the recycling they went. Wish I'd kept mine now.

Rebecca - poor old Charlie. Give him a hug from me.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Fri 13 May, 2016 8:24 am

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jer ... 26756.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Spot on from Mark Steel

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 13 May, 2016 8:25 am

Nothing from Wales yet Rebecca.

Hugs to you, and dear old Charlie.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Fri 13 May, 2016 8:28 am

ephemerid wrote:Ms.Riots - Jonathan Jones is a pisspoor art critic too. I paint a bit; no expert, but I have studied a bit too. I think he's crap.
I have an artist friend who thinks so too. (She's a real artist - http://www.lydiakiernan.co.uk" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; - especially good for those who love horses)

Show and I got letters too - straight to the recycling they went. Wish I'd kept mine now.

Rebecca - poor old Charlie. Give him a hug from me.

So is there a 'national' expenses limit for the Welsh Assembly elections that Cameron could legitimately assign the costs of that letter too (if it doesn't mention local stuff / areas)? He's not the leader of the Tories in Wales is he?

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 13 May, 2016 8:30 am

Live updates from Wales here:

http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/polit ... u-11326416" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

The Welsh Tory leader confirmed that they & Plaid had 'substantial talks' before the First Minister vote on Wednesday.
Plaid & the Tories met three times and he says '' you don't get a vote like that, where everyone votes in unison, without some degree of co-ordination'.

Leanne Wood, in her ITV interview, seemed keen to put across the view that Plaid couldn't be held responsible for how the Tories & UKIP voted. That seems a little slippery now, in the light of Andrew Davies' comment.

In event of coalition this sort of thing should have to be officially declared, so voters can see clearly what is/has happened. That would be much more transparent.

ephemerid · Post by **ephemerid** » Fri 13 May, 2016 8:31 am

Willow904 wrote:http://www.theguardian.com/politics/200 ... 1.comment1
One of the great unsolved mysteries of modern British politics is the role of the Tipp-Ex trick in John Major's narrow victory over Neil Kinnock in the 1992 general election. The Tory triumph was almost entirely unpredicted: opinion pollsters were forced to eat their figures, the BBC was mauled for the "anti-Tory bias" of its exit polls. At the time, the surprise result was hurriedly explained by the power of Major's soapbox and by the false triumphalism of Kinnock's closing rally in Sheffield.

Complaints about the use of proxy votes emerged from St Ives in Cornwall. In an old people's home called Pine Trees, for example, a Conservative supporter helped 17 elderly electors to fill in a form to apply for a postal vote, and then collected all the forms to take them to the council. Which was fine. Without their knowledge, the 17 elderly voters ended up applying for proxy votes, naming various people who were to vote on their behalf - all of whom turned out to be Conservative partyworkers. Some of these workers expressed astonishment when told the story.
Given the history, as referred to in the above 2001 article, and the huge extension of postal voting with few safeguards, you'd think the defeated candidates would have been a bit more on their toes in questioning yet another shock Labour defeat that didn't show in the polls and hinged on just a handful of votes in a few marginals.

Well, yes, Willow.

I wonder if they'd just forgotten? People in politics often seem to me to have very short (and frequently selective) memories.

I can't speak for anyone else, but I was actually in a sort of shock for a few days. There has been, ever since, a lot of piss-taking of pollsters; maybe their predictions were close all along, but nobody realised what an impact the intensive Tory campaigning was having.

That last GE discovered the new phenomenon of the "shy Tory" voter, after all. Perhaps people were not honest when polled.

The thing with relentless campaigning is that it works. One of the things the Tory bloggers and sites like Con Home are always banging on about is how Labour has this army of foot-soldiers for campaigns and the Tories don't. No wonder the party (and Crosby) bought in the Mark Clarke's ideas of saturation-bombing the 40 marginal constituencies.
A lot of the seats they snaffled from the LibDems were part of that 40 - in the West Country particularly, even allowing for the fall in support for the LibDems' collusion with the Tories in coalition, it was still a shock how many seats were lost. No coincidence that the RoadTrip spent a lot of time and money there....

I recall a plethora of "why Labour lost" articles after the GE. The talk back then was mainly around the general uselessness of Ed, ditto the other Ed, the SNP, Project Fear, and Crosby's cleverness. Plus the usual Labour people droning on about policy being poor etc.
I don't recall anyone saying that there was something odd about the results, just that they were surprising.

Ho hum....

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Fri 13 May, 2016 8:32 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/jer ... 26756.html

Spot on from Mark Steel

He's very on form with that one. Thank you. Bit of a cheerer upper whilst on Welsh tenterhooks.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 13 May, 2016 8:39 am

RR. Were you living here during much of Ieuan Wyne Jones' leadership of Plaid, and his part in the Labour/Plaid coalition then ?

I still had fairly positive view of Plaid when we moved here, so maybe had rose tinted specs and didn't examine them too much.

Just suspect that Wood will be a nightmare to deal with, particularly as she seems to have a hotline to the SNP.

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 13 May, 2016 8:46 am

http://www.libdemvoice.org/wp-content/u ... Letter.jpg" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;[/img

This is a copy of the Cameron letter sent to a Lib Dem minister - it does mention Lewes, his constituency.

Can't post it as it comes out too big.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Fri 13 May, 2016 8:47 am

yahyah wrote:RR. Were you living here during much of Ieuan Wyne Jones' leadership of Plaid, and his part in the Labour/Plaid coalition then ?

I still had fairly positive view of Plaid when we moved here, so maybe had rose tinted specs and didn't examine them too much.

Just suspect that Wood will be a nightmare to deal with, particularly as she seems to have a hotline to the SNP.

Yes, I was. Plaid were definitely viewed very differently then by a lot of people I know. Of course - the Elin Jones Ministry of Rural Affairs put paid to a lot of that goodwill because of the badger culling zeal (her / Plaid's utter determination to go ahead despite losing in the courts - just write another law as fast as you can - remind you of any other govt?) and also because of the way they fucked up the rural payments / conservation scheme. She / they really pissed off a lot of people with that incompetence. She lost thousands from her majority post that.

Leanne Wood sailed into Pembs declaring she'd be very very different. She is - and not in a good way.

ephemerid · Post by **ephemerid** » Fri 13 May, 2016 8:53 am

Breaking news - on BBC website

Adrian Sanders, ex-LibDem MP for Torbay, has asked police to investigate letters sent by Cameron to voters, naming the candidate.

We are waaaayyyyyy ahead of the curve today, folks!

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 13 May, 2016 8:59 am

No, the letters name the constituency, not the candidate.

Although, maybe the Tories sent different versions ?

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 13 May, 2016 9:00 am

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36284335" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Fri 13 May, 2016 9:00 am

Can someone tell me what happens if some MPs do end up disqualified whose votes were crucial in passing legislation this parliament?

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 13 May, 2016 9:02 am

Maybe Temulkar could give us some sort of historical context ? If there has been any.

Wouldn't it be some sort of constitutional crisis ?

yahyah · Post by **yahyah** » Fri 13 May, 2016 9:02 am

Don't let's get too excited. Yet.

rebeccariots2 · Post by **rebeccariots2** » Fri 13 May, 2016 9:07 am

yahyah wrote:Don't let's get too excited. Yet.

I'm not (expect they'll wriggle out of it tbh). I'm just glad they are being scrutinised - for once! - and, fingers crossed, they are going to have to be much much more careful next time. This and the disgusting Zac Goldsmith campaign are really showing them up. It's future elections I'm thinking a bit more positively about. Khan has shown you can hit back at the filthy narratives they put about. This has shown it's worth paying very close attention to the details of spend, marketing, campaign tactics etc.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 13 May, 2016 9:10 am

yahyah wrote:http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36284335

The rules referred to in this article seem a little wishy-washy. Seems to me it's all very vague as to what constitutes local campaigning. The Tories would almost certainly have got away with a lot of it if it hadn't been for the several thousand pounds they had failed to declare anywhere and missing the electoral commission's deadline for supplying information. Context of a wider attempt to conceal spending activity makes it harder to get away with the more borderline stuff.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Fri 13 May, 2016 9:16 am

Morning all.

I know this was posted up yesterday but deserve repeating.

Unqualified daughter of minister teaches in his academy schools

http://www.theguardian.com/education/20 ... my-schools

Since September, their daughter Jo Nash has taught four classes between the ages of 10 and 16. She is also advising on a new curriculum to teach history and is involved in the recruitment of staff.

They're letting an unqualified teacher who's only been there since September be involved with recruitment?

Astonishing.

RogerOThornhill · Post by **RogerOThornhill** » Fri 13 May, 2016 9:29 am

Oh, I saw this last night - moving tribute to Sarah Corp, a C4 foreign news producer who died of cancer at the age of 41.

http://www.channel4.com/news/sarah-corp ... nel-4-news" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

We tend to forget all of the backroom people who make news gathering possible - she seems to have been much respected and loved by the on screen presenters.

Rebecca · Post by **Rebecca** » Fri 13 May, 2016 10:20 am

Charlie says thanks for the hugs.He is still very poorly,but no vet or grim reaper today.
Rosie cross.'But is he still STAGGERING?And NOW I'll have to cross it off the calender and my diary!'(she wrote 'veterinarian visit 'on both).
Trixie is now copying him,she will only eat if she lays down with the bowl in between her paws.
And I am on the wine and chocolate diet.

ephemerid · Post by **ephemerid** » Fri 13 May, 2016 10:22 am

This is worth a read, for the background to the RoadTrip2015 - by Mark Clarke himself!

http://www.conservativehome.co/platform ... p2015.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

"The days have two campaigning sessions, followed by a sponsored bar, free curry and drinks into the night. We facilitate accommodation, and we arrange transport for those travelling long distances."
"Our success is due to the blend of activists, movement leaders, CCHQ, Team2015, local associations, and MPs all working together. We know it works - in Enfield we delivered the entire constituency and canvassed a whole ward"

The few comments BTL are not too impressed.....

This article obviously apples only to the Newark by-election; but the techniques - and costs - were repeated in the 40 marginals in 2015.

The Electoral Commission provides guidance for election agents and candidates - ie. the guidance applies to all prospective MPs, sitting MPs who are canvassing for re-election, their agents, and anyone who is part of their campaign.
It is breaching the rules to offer any inducement to campaigners - that specifically includes food, drink, travel, and accommodation.

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Fri 13 May, 2016 10:42 am

Certainly in both the (marginal) constituencies I have lived in and campaigned in for Labour over the years, we have been VERY aware of these rules. The candidates' agents have obviously been properly trained and have been scrupulous, perhaps even overcautiously, about staying within the law.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Fri 13 May, 2016 10:47 am

PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Certainly in both the (marginal) constituencies I have lived in and campaigned in for Labour over the years, we have been VERY aware of these rules. The candidates' agents have obviously been properly trained and have been scrupulous, perhaps even overcautiously, of staying within the law.

I had assumed if there was even the slightest chance Labour had done anything similar, even if on a much reduced scale, we would have heard all about it the moment these accusations against the Tories surfaced, but its nice to hear it confirmed by someone at the sharp end.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 13 May, 2016 11:02 am

Jonathan Jones is a grade A dick. That is all.

Maeght · Post by **Maeght** » Fri 13 May, 2016 11:06 am

I came downstairs this morning and looked out into my garden (small, suburban). The fox - a regular visitor - was practising for Arsenal very enthusiastically, using one of my gardening gloves. It was really funny. Too dozy to get phone/camera. When I got nearer the window he saw me and ran off, leaping over 6 ft. fence from a standing position.

And yes, I know he probably plays for Leicester but I am an Arsenal supporter.

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Fri 13 May, 2016 11:06 am

AnatolyKasparov wrote:Jonathan Jones is a grade A dick. That is all.

I'd go so far as an AAA rating.

Temulkar · Post by **Temulkar** » Fri 13 May, 2016 11:25 am

yahyah wrote:Maybe Temulkar could give us some sort of historical context ? If there has been any.

Wouldn't it be some sort of constitutional crisis ?

It's unprecedented in scale from what I can see. Im no lawyer, but constitutionally I am sure there would be grounds to challenge the legality of laws passed.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 13 May, 2016 11:37 am

Good-morning.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Fri 13 May, 2016 11:49 am

rebeccariots2 wrote:Can someone tell me what happens if some MPs do end up disqualified whose votes were crucial in passing legislation this parliament?

There's nothing on the ramifications regarding legislation passed if fraud is found to have happened, or what happens if more than Cam's slim majority are made to stand down for three years. I keep asking various people but no answers.
It's such a big thing and as it's never have happened before, I guess the experts are scratching their heads too.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 13 May, 2016 12:13 pm

Well, if MPs *are* forced to stand down then we will have a few byelections. Which could prove even more interesting than usual......

StephenDolan · Post by **StephenDolan** » Fri 13 May, 2016 12:14 pm

In the (IMHO) extremely unlikely event of there being fresh by-elections, how many are strong / weak/unlikely retains for the Conservatives?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 13 May, 2016 12:15 pm

ohsocynical wrote:
rebeccariots2 wrote:Can someone tell me what happens if some MPs do end up disqualified whose votes were crucial in passing legislation this parliament?
There's nothing on the ramifications regarding legislation passed if fraud is found to have happened, or what happens if more than Cam's slim majority are made to stand down for three years. I keep asking various people but no answers.
It's such a big thing and as it's never have happened before, I guess the experts are scratching their heads too.

Like VW confessing they deliberately manufactured products with illegal equipment for years.
And still the executives stand, the doors remain open, no one gone to jail after a flat-out confession of guilt.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 13 May, 2016 12:16 pm

StephenDolan wrote:In the (IMHO) extremely unlikely event of there being fresh by-elections, how many are strong / weak/unlikely retains for the Conservatives?

It'll depend up press coverage leading up to new by-elections

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Fri 13 May, 2016 12:19 pm

Lovely day. However, I prefer my air without the emissions do-it-yourself motor vehicle enthusiasts below my window are subjecting me to.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Fri 13 May, 2016 12:24 pm

StephenDolan wrote:In the (IMHO) extremely unlikely event of there being fresh by-elections, how many are strong / weak/unlikely retains for the Conservatives?

Aren't a lot of them marginals?

I agree it is on balance still unlikely, but wouldn't go as far as to say "extremely". This thing has already made more progress than some cynics predicted......

frightful_oik · Post by **frightful_oik** » Fri 13 May, 2016 12:30 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:
StephenDolan wrote:In the (IMHO) extremely unlikely event of there being fresh by-elections, how many are strong / weak/unlikely retains for the Conservatives?
Aren't a lot of them marginals?

I agree it is on balance still unlikely, but wouldn't go as far as to say "extremely". This thing has already made more progress than some cynics predicted......

Many of them have very small majorities so any excess spending could have helped tip the balance. But I agree, we're in unknown territory here.

ohsocynical · Post by **ohsocynical** » Fri 13 May, 2016 12:33 pm

Rebecca wrote:Charlie says thanks for the hugs.He is still very poorly,but no vet or grim reaper today.
Rosie cross.'But is he still STAGGERING?And NOW I'll have to cross it off the calender and my diary!'(she wrote 'veterinarian visit 'on both).
Trixie is now copying him,she will only eat if she lays down with the bowl in between her paws.
And I am on the wine and chocolate diet.

Bless you. Poor old Charlie. A wine and choccy diet is essential at times.
It's hard watching your dogs grow old. We had three that reached the grand old age of 16. They were all born within a year of each other. It was like an old people's home only with canines instead of humans.