Tubby Isaacs wrote:I expect the polling companies have updated methods. Like in 1992, there was an underlying problem with their methodology that underrated one side, plus a likely lately swing to them.
Whatever, the underlying trends they show should be realistic. Wherever they are, the polls are stalled.
I'm not saying backing freedom of movement would open up a lead, it would more likely go the other way. But I think it'll be proved right. They really need to avoid relying on being seen as better negotiators than the Tories. Because of the familiar advantages the Tories have, the Tories have a good chance of keeping their lead on that.
I have had a look at some of the methodologies and am not at all convinced that they have learnt the lessons - they seem to have treated the youth vote as a one off - the raw data prior to the turnout weighting is usually showing a 3-4% Labour lead
They are in the fortunate position of being quoted as true but never being rested - how do we know they are right? I admit I am not trusting of something that when tested is shown to be wrong - is adjusted a bit but then it is not tested again for another 5 years
You base your opinions on what the polls say if you want - I choose to dismiss them as pretty much useless as the margin of error will be so high to make then useless
Remember the embarrassment of watching Kellner trying to explain away the difference between the last polls and the Exit Poll as being down to postal votes!
The polling companies can be a lot more precise (see the YouGov Nowcast) but it is very expensive to carry out such polling and they don't tend to do it between elections