Eleven local council byelections last week:
Cherwell DC - the first of the two remaining deferred elections from last month's polls saw an Independent gain from the Tories in a ward which split 1Ind/2C in the all-out post boundary change elections here two years ago (the winning Indy topped the poll and finished well ahead of their running mate) The winning share of 40% was little changed from the top Independent then, meaning an increase of 10% for the Tories from two years ago was still nowhere near enough to save them. Labour were only just behind the Tories then, but a modest increase in comparison to 20% left them clearly behind now. Greens more than halved from last time, but still just ahead of the LibDems who got 3% now after sitting the last election out.
Brent - the final bit of unfinished business from May saw the 2014 round of elections finally pass into history with a thumping Labour win with over two thirds of the vote and an increase well into double figures - returning three members for the party safely for the first time since 2002. The following year the LibDems won a famous win in the Brent East byelection (of which this ward formed a part) and they went on to top the poll here in both 2006 and 2010, things splitting 2LD/1Lab each time. Labour won all three four years ago, but a Green-sympathising Independent was competitive then, their absence now moved things to super safe status with the official Greens taking a very distant second with 11% despite actually dropping on last time. Tories came just behind them with a modest increase, ahead of the LibDems who declined further - coming last with less than 9%.
Basingstoke and Deane DC - Tory hold of a safe ward which returned 3 councillors for them in the 2008 all-out elections and has remained rock solid for them since - this time round a share of over 60% was good enough to get them a win over Labour by almost 2 to 1; this was actually a decent swing to Labour since the May elections here, but actually very little changed from a previous by-election as recently as March this year. LibDems came second here in the two pre-coalition elections (2008 and 2010) but were down to 7% now, a drop of 5 points since last month.
Fenland DC - Tory hold with over 60% of the vote, an increase of some 6 per cent, since the 2015 elections (the first since boundary changes) when the Tories safely took this new single member ward with UKIP coming second. Their now familiar absence caused the LibDems to move up a place with a tiny "swing" to them overall, for what little that is worth here. This time an Independent intervened, and came third with 16%.
Watford DC - LibDem hold of one of their local strongholds after the incumbent became the newly elected mayor last month (new person but same party, this was very much a LibDem hold) This ward duly elected three councillors for them in the 2016 all out elections after boundary changes and was indeed safe for them long before that - it says something that their winning score of 55% was slightly down on a month ago and represented a modest swing to the second placed Tories even though they were still outpolled 2 to 1. Labour remained in third, their 17% a fraction down on May.
Charnwood DC - Tory hold in a ward which has safely elected two members for them in every election since 2003, despite their share dropping 9 points to just over half this time round. Labour also dropped slightly since 2015, though remaining in second place as in every previous election this millennium - this is due to the LibDems standing for the first time since 2003 and improving slightly on that showing with a decent 17%. UKIP dropped from their only previous outing three years ago, but 10% is actually a decent showing for them these days (as is standing at all, really)
West Somerset DC - I said this about another byelection here a few months ago, but perhaps this vacancy really is the final one before this undersized council gets merged with its (somewhat) bigger neighbour in Taunton next year - if so it was a memorable one for the LibDems at least as they gained a seat in this two member ward from UKIP - who split this one with the Tories last time after it divided 1Ind/1C in 2011 (the first post boundary change election) LibDems did not stand in either of those polls, but nearly 40% now was enough for a comfortable win as the Tories were almost unchanged despite the expected "bonus" of no UKIP candidate this time. Independents continued their drift downwards with 20% this time, though that was enough to overtake Labour who narrowly missed out on a seat both previous elections but dropped over 5 points now.
South Northamptonshire DC - two vacancies here, the first was a routine Tory win - beating Labour by 3 to 1 in a straight fight, little changed from 2015 - in a very safe ward for them that was actually unopposed in both 2003 and 2007; the other contest was rather different however as the LibDems stormed to victory in a ward where the Tories had been unopposed in both 2011 and 2015 - taking well over half the vote. Strictly speaking there is thus no "swing" here, but just for fun it equates to a shift of around 60 per cent from three years ago! Labour actually won here in 2003, but in 2007 they were well beaten and their first foray since then saw them score less than 7%.
Basildon DC - a double vacancy here too, the first was a Labour hold with 57% in one of their more reliable wards here - it elected three councillors for them in the all-out elections of 2002 and subsequently until UKIP took both seats in a "dual vacancy" at their 2014 high point. Labour held their remaining seat narrowly in 2015, however, and won back the others in 2016 and last month - the latter very comfortably as UKIP slumped to third. There was a further small swing to Labour since then as the Tories took exactly a quarter of the vote - whilst UKIP declined still further and the BNP (a rare electoral foray for them these days) got just 4%, some way from the 2003-2010 period when they polled respectably here. The other contest saw a Labour gain from UKIP (being the seat that they previously won in 2016) but it was actually a very close contest between them and the Tories with the red team coming just 1% ahead here with 46%, a swing of about 4% to them since last month when the Tories narrowly won both seats here in another "dual" contest - after this ward split 2Lab/1C back in 2002 the Tories tended to come out on top in subsequent polls even though it was sometimes close, until Labour won in 2012 and then UKIP in both 2014 and two years ago; however UKIP has crashed here since then (as in many other places) and their 8% was a further decline since May despite being the "defending" party here
Four contests this week.