Tuesday 3rd July 2018
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Welcome to FTN. New posters are welcome to join the conversation. You can follow us on Twitter @FlythenestHaven You are responsible for the content you post. This is a public forum. Treat it as if you are speaking in a crowded room. Site admin and Moderators are volunteers who will respond as quickly as they are able to when made aware of any complaints. Please do not post copyrighted material without the original authors permission.
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Tuesday 3rd July 2018
Morning
http://www.social-policy.org.uk/50-for- ... ld-policy/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
No 3: Why the two-child policy is the worst social security policy ever
http://www.social-policy.org.uk/50-for- ... ld-policy/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
No 3: Why the two-child policy is the worst social security policy ever
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... it-reality" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Monday's crace
Monday's crace
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Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
Morning all.
Probably not too far from the truth.Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
8m
8 minutes ago
More
Katy Hayward Retweeted Laura Kuenssberg
Ever-increasing hints of May's strategy for a team-building Chequers challenge.
The Cabinet factions are to come up with a '3rd way' customs plan themselves, using lollipop sticks, crepe paper, baler twine and a jumbo pritt stick.
If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
From last night
1) I still think it makes more sense to say 'to eat your cake and have it' than the other way round
2) "Brexit is 'a buzzy thing'.
1) I still think it makes more sense to say 'to eat your cake and have it' than the other way round
2) "Brexit is 'a buzzy thing'.
I still believe in a town called Hope
- RogerOThornhill
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Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
The TaxDodgersAlliance's Chloe Westley has written some poetry...
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
downthread -- "" perhaps a paintball challenge between the two warring Cabinet factions, with the Remainers secretly given live ammo in a last-minute switcheroo? ""RogerOThornhill wrote:Morning all.
Probably not too far from the truth.Katy Hayward
@hayward_katy
8m
8 minutes ago
More
Katy Hayward Retweeted Laura Kuenssberg
Ever-increasing hints of May's strategy for a team-building Chequers challenge.
The Cabinet factions are to come up with a '3rd way' customs plan themselves, using lollipop sticks, crepe paper, baler twine and a jumbo pritt stick.
High tide ! Off to rinse away all thoughts of bre**t
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
The “appalling treatment” of thousands of Windrush victims shows that the Home Office has become a callous and hostile institution in need of “root and branch reform”, a damning report from the home affairs select committee has found.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... sh-scandal" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... sh-scandal" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
One world, like it or not - John Martyn
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
Ministers are drastically off course on ensuring as many fuel-poor homes – those which people cannot afford to keep adequately heated – as possible are upgraded to energy efficiency band C by 2030 in England, according to the IPPR.
The target will not be met by 2091 at the earliest, a new report by the thinktank found.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... efficiency" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Do the papers actually ask the govt for a statement? They could just write it themselves.
The target will not be met by 2091 at the earliest, a new report by the thinktank found.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... efficiency" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Do the papers actually ask the govt for a statement? They could just write it themselves.
A spokesperson for the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy said: “We don’t want anyone to live in fuel poverty. That’s why we’re tackling the root causes by investing £6bn in improving energy efficiency in some of the UK’s poorest homes over the next 10 years.”
One world, like it or not - John Martyn
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
These are the questions the British Chamber of Commerce is asking this morning - the only ones they say they have had some progress on I have underlined, the rest say no progress. I have suggested some answers based on where things seem to be now.
- Will I be able to hire EU nationals in future – and under what conditions? Don't know. Don't know.
Will business travel between the UK and the EU involve further administration, costs or visas? Yes.
Will my business be able to move skilled staff members between the UK and the EU in future? No, not as at present.
Will UK firms and institutions be able to participate in European R&D projects after 2020? No.
Will UK projects be eligible for support from the EIB after 2020? No.
How will the UK replacement for EU Funds work, and how can my company access opportunities? Don't know. Don't know.
Will I need to pay VAT on goods at point of import? Will I be able to use postponed accounting or have access to more generous deferment account terms to offset the cash-flow issues? Yes. Don't know.
Will I need to become VAT-registered in every EU Member State where my firm has clients? Yes.
Which regulator will be overseeing my business in the future, and what rules do I need to follow? Is the UK government going to charge businesses for the creation of new regulatory agencies in the UK? Don't know. Don't know. Probably.
Will conformity assessments on products conducted by a UK body will continue to be sufficient for the product to be sold on the EU market? No.
What dispute resolution and means of redress will be available to my business in the future? Don't know.
What industrial standards will my firm need to comply with in the future, and will the UK stick with the European model that we have strongly influenced? Not sure. Probably not.
Will my business have to pay mobile roaming charges in the EU after Brexit? Yes.
Will my business continue to be able to hold and transfer data and personal information without any interruptions after we have left the EU? No.
Will I be able to continue trading without tariffs with the EU in the future? No.
What rules of origin will I need to comply with once the UK has left the EU? Will I be able to count UK and EU content as single origin, both when trading with the EU and with third countries? Don't know. No.
Will my company still have access to markets on the same terms as now once we have left the European Union? No.
How will my business be able to contribute directly to future trade negotiations? No.
Will I still be able to fly people and/or goods between the UK and the EU after Brexit day – or could travel be disrupted? Not as now - yes to disruption.
Will my goods be subject to new customs rules, procedures and inspections at the UK or EU border in future? Could my shipments be held up and delayed? Yes. Yes.
Will there be new health or safety-related inspections at the UK-EU border that my company will need to deal with? Yes.
Will I need to do additional customs-related paperwork, including import and export declarations, when trading with the EU? Yes.
Will my business be able to become a ‘trusted trader’ to move quickly through borders in future – and what will the process be? Don't know. Don't know.
What, if any, procedures will my company face trading cross-border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland? Don't know.
I still believe in a town called Hope
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
Back to Brexit, on the G there's a long list of detailed questions from the British Chambers of commerce, eg
IMPORT VAT
Will I need to pay VAT on goods at point of import? Will I be able to use postponed accounting or have access to more generous deferment account terms to offset the cash-flow issues?
SERVICES VAT
Will I need to become VAT-registered in every EU member state where my firm has clients?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/bl ... itics-live" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
This is the level of detail businesses need and the govt hasn't even got the big picture straight.
IMPORT VAT
Will I need to pay VAT on goods at point of import? Will I be able to use postponed accounting or have access to more generous deferment account terms to offset the cash-flow issues?
SERVICES VAT
Will I need to become VAT-registered in every EU member state where my firm has clients?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/bl ... itics-live" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
This is the level of detail businesses need and the govt hasn't even got the big picture straight.
Last edited by gilsey on Tue 03 Jul, 2018 10:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
One world, like it or not - John Martyn
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
I read that first as the BBC but the same could apply.adam wrote: I have one for the BCC - why didn't you loudly and repeatedly demand answers to these questions during the referendum campaign?
One world, like it or not - John Martyn
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
My favourite one is ...gilsey wrote:Snap!
Who knows. But it - whatever it is - is quite likely to come in 9 months.Which regulator will be overseeing my business in the future, and what rules do I need to follow?
I still believe in a town called Hope
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
Anyway, the whole thing confirms what I was saying before the referendum - never mind the principles, leaving the EU is impossible.
One world, like it or not - John Martyn
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
Some idle speculation...gilsey wrote:Any way, the whole thing confirms what I was saying before the referendum - never mind the principles, leaving the EU is impossible.
We don't know what will happen but I think we need to guard carefully against the idea that they can't just crash us out because that would be ridiculous and catastrophic. Blaming public spending for the 2008 crash was ridiculous and catastrophic but that didn't stop them.
Does it matter that there's probably - very probably indeed - a significant majority in parliament to make things worse rather than to make things much much much worse? I'm not sure it does. Previous occasions suggest that when push comes to shove the more reasonable conservatives (a comment made with very deliberate delivery and to be heard in context) will fold but the extremists will force the issue.
I suspect this won't happen this week - the only thing she's any good at is kicking the can down the road and promoting plans that have already been comprehensively written off by the EU - but if we finally reach a point when May declares that the only way forward is something very close to Norway, it's entirely possible that the ERG will trigger a contest.
If they do, the question really is whether they are organised enough to get a candidate through to the final two. Given that it's very very likely that May will stand there are unlikely to be other 'more reasonable' (again...) candidates, and there's a very good chance that they will.
There is then a very good chance that the conservative party in the country will choose the more eurosceptic over the less.
And then we will have a prime minister leading a government determined to take us out with no deal unless the EU bend completely unfeasibly to our will. They won't command the support of parliament or even of their own party. But will their party do anything about it? Will the conservative back benches vote the conservative government down? I won't believe it unless or until it happens.
These aren't questions about what might be achievable within the current negotiations. They are questions about how ruthless the nutcases are and how compliant the 'more reasonable' tories might be in the face of them.
I still believe in a town called Hope
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
Putting the horse before the cart.adam wrote:From last night
1) I still think it makes more sense to say 'to eat your cake and have it' than the other way round
2) "Brexit is 'a buzzy thing'.
Breggzit.
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Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
It most certainly couldgilsey wrote:I read that first as the BBC but the same could apply.adam wrote: I have one for the BCC - why didn't you loudly and repeatedly demand answers to these questions during the referendum campaign?
The ever more pervasive idea that "balance" means giving equal prominence to truth and falsehood has probably damaged the Beeb more than any overt political bias.
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
Looking at the rules again I think I'm wrong on the detail here - I think May just faces a Yes/No confidence vote if letters to the 1922 committee trigger one, and we only move on to a contest if she loses the confidence vote (or feels damaged by it and resigns). So the question instead becomes whether the non-ERG tories can keep the extreme eurosceptics out of the final vote.adam wrote: Some idle speculation... (snip)
I still believe in a town called Hope
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Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
And the answer to that is *probably* yes, certainly if JRM (disliked by many of his fellow Tory MPs) indeed turns out to be the ERG standard bearer.adam wrote:Looking at the rules again I think I'm wrong on the detail here - I think May just faces a Yes/No confidence vote if letters to the 1922 committee trigger one, and we only move on to a contest if she loses the confidence vote (or feels damaged by it and resigns). So the question instead becomes whether the non-ERG tories can keep the extreme eurosceptics out of the final vote.adam wrote: Some idle speculation... (snip)
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
I take your point but I don't think it's clearcut at all. He would have somewhere between 40 and 50 votes if he just had the ERG folk and he'd probably do better than that. It would depend how much of a cat fight it became and who the leader of the field was - because a number of the rest of them come with quite a bit of baggage too. This is the party that put Andrea Leadsome in the final two last time. Gove went out with 48 votes but there are 13 fewer tory MPs over all now.AnatolyKasparov wrote:And the answer to that is *probably* yes, certainly if JRM (disliked by many of his fellow Tory MPs) indeed turns out to be the ERG standard bearer.adam wrote:Looking at the rules again I think I'm wrong on the detail here - I think May just faces a Yes/No confidence vote if letters to the 1922 committee trigger one, and we only move on to a contest if she loses the confidence vote (or feels damaged by it and resigns). So the question instead becomes whether the non-ERG tories can keep the extreme eurosceptics out of the final vote.adam wrote: Some idle speculation... (snip)
I still believe in a town called Hope
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Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
Leadsom is *slightly* less extreme than the ERG folk though?
I have little doubt there would be a concerted attempt to keep them off the final 2 offered to the members, at least.
I have little doubt there would be a concerted attempt to keep them off the final 2 offered to the members, at least.
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
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Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
I'm not very good at Kremlinology type stuff, but one way out of the bind for May, it seems to me, is to propose a Soft Brexit that is so close to Labour's position that the latter would be bound to support it.
I'm not quite sure how that would play out, but my instincts are that May would easily survive it.
I'm not quite sure how that would play out, but my instincts are that May would easily survive it.
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Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
"Burden","unsustainable","unfair" "beholden to the taxpayer" "non spare rooms for care subject to a penalty""lifestyle choice of not being sufficiently terminally ill""main reason for the deficit""on x benefit for x years sitting at home" ad infinitum Impact asssessments that clearly state pernicious effects repeatedly found to be discriminatory
"Stop saying it is a hostile environment"
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... e-12838071" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
"Stop saying it is a hostile environment"
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... e-12838071" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
The main route out of created poverty is work when not expected to and reduction in facillitation.Previous thirty years ignored.
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Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
If penalised you are obviously not sufficiently needy/pathetic,yet.
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Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
https://www.cqc.org.uk/publications/the ... re-england" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Beyond barriers: how older people move between health and care in England
Beyond barriers: how older people move between health and care in England
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Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new- ... le-housing" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Press release
New fund launched to increase community-led affordable housing
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... prospectus" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Press release
New fund launched to increase community-led affordable housing
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... prospectus" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
I agree that parliament would force the issue for her but if she had the tiniest shred of decency then, having spent two years insisting that she would absolutely be doing no such thing she should call herself out for being hopeless and leave immediately. She's hoist herself so high with her red lines that I am less convinced than some that she is even considering doing the less very very wrong thing.PaulfromYorkshire wrote:I'm not very good at Kremlinology type stuff, but one way out of the bind for May, it seems to me, is to propose a Soft Brexit that is so close to Labour's position that the latter would be bound to support it.
I'm not quite sure how that would play out, but my instincts are that May would easily survive it.
I still believe in a town called Hope
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Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... avid-behan" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
But its not just about her, but also about who can pressure the PM more effectively as crunch time draws near.adam wrote:I agree that parliament would force the issue for her but if she had the tiniest shred of decency then, having spent two years insisting that she would absolutely be doing no such thing she should call herself out for being hopeless and leave immediately. She's hoist herself so high with her red lines that I am less convinced than some that she is even considering doing the less very very wrong thing.PaulfromYorkshire wrote:I'm not very good at Kremlinology type stuff, but one way out of the bind for May, it seems to me, is to propose a Soft Brexit that is so close to Labour's position that the latter would be bound to support it.
I'm not quite sure how that would play out, but my instincts are that May would easily survive it.
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
True.AnatolyKasparov wrote:But its not just about her, but also about who can pressure the PM more effectively as crunch time draws near.adam wrote:I agree that parliament would force the issue for her but if she had the tiniest shred of decency then, having spent two years insisting that she would absolutely be doing no such thing she should call herself out for being hopeless and leave immediately. She's hoist herself so high with her red lines that I am less convinced than some that she is even considering doing the less very very wrong thing.PaulfromYorkshire wrote:I'm not very good at Kremlinology type stuff, but one way out of the bind for May, it seems to me, is to propose a Soft Brexit that is so close to Labour's position that the latter would be bound to support it.
I'm not quite sure how that would play out, but my instincts are that May would easily survive it.
I still believe in a town called Hope
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
Is anyone here following the Q & A with Crawford Falconer, the government’s chief trade negotiation adviser? It's over at Politics Live, Guardian. And it's depressing\funny depending on your mood.
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Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
She doesn't!adam wrote:I agree that parliament would force the issue for her but if she had the tiniest shred of decency then, having spent two years insisting that she would absolutely be doing no such thing she should call herself out for being hopeless and leave immediately. She's hoist herself so high with her red lines that I am less convinced than some that she is even considering doing the less very very wrong thing.PaulfromYorkshire wrote:I'm not very good at Kremlinology type stuff, but one way out of the bind for May, it seems to me, is to propose a Soft Brexit that is so close to Labour's position that the latter would be bound to support it.
I'm not quite sure how that would play out, but my instincts are that May would easily survive it.
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Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
@PF yeah no score as yet
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
Robert Peston's best guess at Theresa May's thinking:
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Needless to say it's still a variety of Brexit that has already been rejected but Peston is suggesting that May could get the ultras to agree to her negotiating gambit by making the threat that parliament will otherwise impose EEA on them (though Corbyn's stance weakens her hand a little on that, I would have thought). What she intends when the EU rejects this "Swiss" option is unclear.
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Needless to say it's still a variety of Brexit that has already been rejected but Peston is suggesting that May could get the ultras to agree to her negotiating gambit by making the threat that parliament will otherwise impose EEA on them (though Corbyn's stance weakens her hand a little on that, I would have thought). What she intends when the EU rejects this "Swiss" option is unclear.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
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Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
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Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
"The three settings outlined the Improving Lives strategy are not moving together. Business (in terms of employment) moves relatively quickly, but NHS practice and services have not kept up with how working practices and demands are changing (see section 3.3.1 above and footnote 3). We have also heard from people who are struggling to navigate workplace barriers (particular after recently returning to work) whilst experiencing challenges in the transition from DLA to PIP, which has increased stress and anxiety and decreased the energy available to return build up hours during a phased return to work. As per section 3.3.2 above, transport also needs to be recognised as pivotal to the successful delivery of the overall Improving Lives strategy. " The rogue DWP as ever undermining
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
Crace -- philip-hammond-comes-clean-on-brexit
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -on-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -on-brexit" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
Footie ?
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Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
By Christ, that was tough to watch...
If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.
Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
No watching, but I listened on Five !RogerOThornhill wrote:By Christ, that was tough to watch...
Just discovered two Bushmills bottles containing a dark liquid .
Last year’s sloe gin .
Cheers !
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Re: Tuesday 3rd July 2018
Just about to watch..