Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
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Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
Morning all.
Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
Good morfternoon.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... ing-reviewFormer 'red wall' areas could lose millions in council funding review
£300m a year set be redirected from deprived areas to shire councils, analysis shows
(Guardian)
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... rry-labour" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51245211" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
This seems perfectly reasonable - the conservatives have been talking about doing this for some time. People in Stoke and Country Durham and so on voted to transfer their local resources away from them to more wealthy areas of the country.PorFavor wrote:Good morfternoon.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... ing-reviewFormer 'red wall' areas could lose millions in council funding review
£300m a year set be redirected from deprived areas to shire councils, analysis shows
(Guardian)
I'd much rather credit people with the intelligence to know what they were doing than to imagine they were ignorant of it. (I hope this doesn't need saying but this is a comment made to the air, not to anybody here and certainly not to PF).
I still believe in a town called Hope
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
They don't think it transfers from them personally, just from all the less deserving souls.
Which is why they will still spend most of their waking lives complaining about how crap all their public services are.
Which is why they will still spend most of their waking lives complaining about how crap all their public services are.
Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
Given it's the older generation that's predominantly voting Tory, I think it's reasonable to assume they know exactly what they're voting for on account of the fact they are old enough to remember the Thatcher years and the high rates of homelessness, the crumbling schools and hospitals, the discriminatory attacks on and othering of people such as single mums, pensioner poverty etc etc. How could they not know? When have the Tories ever done anything other than cut taxes and destroy services?
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
I think the above posts underestimate how many people in these seats were somehow convinced that voting for Johnson's Tories constituted "change".
(a blizzard of black propaganda on Facebook especially certainly helped create this impression)
(a blizzard of black propaganda on Facebook especially certainly helped create this impression)
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
I certainly think a lot of Labour voters were convinced to stay at home by the flood of anti-Corbyn propaganda. And it seems the BBC found a small group of people who moved from Labour to the Tories for "a change" to create an impression of a wider movement of working class people rejecting Labour for the Tories. Hard to know how true that is, though. Voting analysis I've seen just shows people moving from Labour generally, not especially to the Tories, and the Tories didn't win many more votes overall.AnatolyKasparov wrote:I think the above posts underestimate how many people in these seats were somehow convinced that voting for Johnson's Tories constituted "change".
(a blizzard of black propaganda on Facebook especially certainly helped create this impression)
Voting Tory for "a change" is such a strange thing for so many people to come up with it certainly must have been planted, clearly by the same people by the same means as gave us "get my country back". (People currently referred to the Met on suspicion of breaking electoral laws, incidentally). I don't think there is sufficient evidence to prove it was widely persuasive, though, but then that's the point of the kind of targeted online propaganda as developed by Cambridge Analytica. It only has to work with a small number of people in targeted seats to tip the balance. Meanwhile a much larger number of people are going to feel the consequences of that swing to the Tories in northern seats and no, they aren't going to be very happy when they see even more money going south.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... ship-grows" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
Willow -- somebody, perhaps here!, gave a link** analysing where vote-shifters went for all parties .Willow904 wrote:I certainly think a lot of Labour voters were convinced to stay at home by the flood of anti-Corbyn propaganda. And it seems the BBC found a small group of people who moved from Labour to the Tories for "a change" to create an impression of a wider movement of working class people rejecting Labour for the Tories. Hard to know how true that is, though. Voting analysis I've seen just shows people moving from Labour generally, not especially to the Tories, and the Tories didn't win many more votes overall.AnatolyKasparov wrote:I think the above posts underestimate how many people in these seats were somehow convinced that voting for Johnson's Tories constituted "change".
(a blizzard of black propaganda on Facebook especially certainly helped create this impression)
Voting Tory for "a change" is such a strange thing for so many people to come up with it certainly must have been planted, clearly by the same people by the same means as gave us "get my country back". (People currently referred to the Met on suspicion of breaking electoral laws, incidentally). I don't think there is sufficient evidence to prove it was widely persuasive, though, but then that's the point of the kind of targeted online propaganda as developed by Cambridge Analytica. It only has to work with a small number of people in targeted seats to tip the balance. Meanwhile a much larger number of people are going to feel the consequences of that swing to the Tories in northern seats and no, they aren't going to be very happy when they see even more money going south.
Some of Labour's 2017 went to the Tories, others to the LD's and the Brexit Party, while a good number simply abstained .
**I lost it, of course
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
Andy Beckett has another of his customarily thoughtful pieces in the Graun - I do think weariness with constant political "turmoil" was a factor in last month's result.
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
Yes, I've seen similar. And May lost a majority in 2017. Some of that Labour to Tory shift in 2019 could be people going back to the Tories, rather than lifelong Labour voters going Tory for the first time. We just don't know.
The Tories won more by dissuading people from voting for Labour than by persuading people to vote for Boris, it seems to me, combined with a longterm shift to the right in northern seats that created new marginals. And it's difficult to know how much of that shift is true rejection by former Labour voters and how much is from demographic change. Eg:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43316697" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The Tories won more by dissuading people from voting for Labour than by persuading people to vote for Boris, it seems to me, combined with a longterm shift to the right in northern seats that created new marginals. And it's difficult to know how much of that shift is true rejection by former Labour voters and how much is from demographic change. Eg:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43316697" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Where are the UK's youngest and oldest city populations?
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
Good afternoon, everyone.
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
Hi all
Some good analysis on what happened. Hard to disagree. I have had a feeling that the Tories would follow the Republican playbook and focus on demoralising Labour vote rather than converting it (although Brexit possibly helped the latter)
If we look back further to 97 there was also indication that a lot of the Tory vote abstained rather than converting and we all know how turnout has dropped off markedly since the 90s.
I would suggest that preventing someone from voting rather than converting them is somewhat easier
Some good analysis on what happened. Hard to disagree. I have had a feeling that the Tories would follow the Republican playbook and focus on demoralising Labour vote rather than converting it (although Brexit possibly helped the latter)
If we look back further to 97 there was also indication that a lot of the Tory vote abstained rather than converting and we all know how turnout has dropped off markedly since the 90s.
I would suggest that preventing someone from voting rather than converting them is somewhat easier
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
Turnout was down in 1997 yes, but by most in strong Labour seats.
With hindsight, that was more significant than it appeared at the time.
With hindsight, that was more significant than it appeared at the time.
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
A short overview but with a useful central image, from the LSE Brexit Blog
“Global Britain” in a cold climate: Michael Cox and Tim Oliver on Brexit in 2020
“Global Britain” in a cold climate: Michael Cox and Tim Oliver on Brexit in 2020
Michael Cox and Tim Oliver compare the UK to a ship being tossed around on a stormy and cold ocean looking for a harbour that probably does not exist and a destination it might never arrive at.
I still believe in a town called Hope
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... er-elected" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... ndy-street" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/brex ... reveals-pm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
Good morfternoon.
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
The sort of complete non-story about Labour that the Observer specialises in.HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... er-elected
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... nose-in-itBrexit: Heseltine says celebrations rub remainers' noses in it
Commemorative 50p coin, countdown and Downing Street light display to mark departure on Friday
(Observer)
Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
Sky'sGoneOut hasn't been around for a while. I hope all's well.
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
He was posting on Thursday night.
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
Right-ho - missed that. Thanks.
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... iversities" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
From the above article -HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... iversities
What are these courses and why do they attract lower future average earnings? I feel that that's an important piece of information that is missing.The team also found female students attended courses with lower future average earnings than men, something the researchers said had implications for closing the gender pay gap.
Edited - tidy up
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ed-its-mad" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... tewart-lee" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... inadequate" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
PorFavor wrote:From the above article -HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... iversitiesWhat are these courses and why do they attract lower future average earnings? I feel that that's an important piece of information that is missing.The team also found female students attended courses with lower future average earnings than men, something the researchers said had implications for closing the gender pay gap.
Edited - tidy up
Regardless of how intelligent and academically gifted, students who don't come from money work harder getting somewhere. Choosing wealthy parents is the best thing to do.[Centre for Economic Performance] CEP Discussion Paper No 1647
August2019
Inequalities in Student to Course Match: Evidence from Linked Administrative Data
Abstract
This paper examines inequalities in the match between student quality and university quality using linked administrative data from schools, universities and tax authorities. We analyse two measures of match at the university-subject (course) level, based on student academic attainment, and graduate earnings.We find that students from lower socio-economic groups systematically undermatch for both measures across the distribution of attainment, with particularly stark socio-economic gaps for the most undermatched. While there are negligible gender gaps in academic match, high-attaining women systematically undermatch in terms of expected earnings, largely driven by subject choice.
http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp1647.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
Good evening, everyone.
Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
What's going on with Brexit? Sajid Javid is waving a coin around. What is the UK's trade relation with other nations, please? Are EU nationals living in the UK going to be okay? Are UK nationals living within EU nations okay? What's their status going to be? What security do they have. What the fuck is going on, please?
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
Unfortunately the voting majority of 'the British public' don't give a flying one about people's actual lives.
LET'S FACE IT I'M JUST 'KIN' SEETHIN'
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... s-reversed" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
"All that for a lousy 50p"
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
"It's what orifice Javid obtained it that rather worries me"
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
I still have a 73" ring of hands",more a function of aversion to spending(though of course no longer legal tender)than any commemorative reason.
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
The front page of the Daily Mail the day we joined the then EEC is certainly a sight for the ages.
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
Q.What was the football score when the "three"played the "six" at Wembley in'73'
Answer after the break.
Answer after the break.
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
Tbh I remember the game and who won but had to look up the score
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
https://www.gov.uk/staying-uk-eu-citizen" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
https://www.gov.uk/transition" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020
To have left the stage