Saturday 25th & Sunday 26th January 2020

Post by **refitman** » Sat 25 Jan, 2020 9:16 am

Morning all.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sat 25 Jan, 2020 10:34 am

Good morfternoon.

Former 'red wall' areas could lose millions in council funding review

£300m a year set be redirected from deprived areas to shire councils, analysis shows
(Guardian)

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... ing-review

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 25 Jan, 2020 10:53 am

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... rry-labour" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 25 Jan, 2020 11:14 am

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51245211" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Post by **adam** » Sat 25 Jan, 2020 11:26 am

PorFavor wrote:Good morfternoon.

Former 'red wall' areas could lose millions in council funding review

£300m a year set be redirected from deprived areas to shire councils, analysis shows
(Guardian)
https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... ing-review

This seems perfectly reasonable - the conservatives have been talking about doing this for some time. People in Stoke and Country Durham and so on voted to transfer their local resources away from them to more wealthy areas of the country.

I'd much rather credit people with the intelligence to know what they were doing than to imagine they were ignorant of it. (I hope this doesn't need saying but this is a comment made to the air, not to anybody here and certainly not to PF).

Post by **PaulfromYorkshire** » Sat 25 Jan, 2020 11:40 am

They don't think it transfers from them personally, just from all the less deserving souls.

Which is why they will still spend most of their waking lives complaining about how crap all their public services are.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sat 25 Jan, 2020 11:48 am

Given it's the older generation that's predominantly voting Tory, I think it's reasonable to assume they know exactly what they're voting for on account of the fact they are old enough to remember the Thatcher years and the high rates of homelessness, the crumbling schools and hospitals, the discriminatory attacks on and othering of people such as single mums, pensioner poverty etc etc. How could they not know? When have the Tories ever done anything other than cut taxes and destroy services?

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 25 Jan, 2020 11:53 am

I think the above posts underestimate how many people in these seats were somehow convinced that voting for Johnson's Tories constituted "change".

(a blizzard of black propaganda on Facebook especially certainly helped create this impression)

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sat 25 Jan, 2020 12:17 pm

AnatolyKasparov wrote:I think the above posts underestimate how many people in these seats were somehow convinced that voting for Johnson's Tories constituted "change".

(a blizzard of black propaganda on Facebook especially certainly helped create this impression)

I certainly think a lot of Labour voters were convinced to stay at home by the flood of anti-Corbyn propaganda. And it seems the BBC found a small group of people who moved from Labour to the Tories for "a change" to create an impression of a wider movement of working class people rejecting Labour for the Tories. Hard to know how true that is, though. Voting analysis I've seen just shows people moving from Labour generally, not especially to the Tories, and the Tories didn't win many more votes overall.

Voting Tory for "a change" is such a strange thing for so many people to come up with it certainly must have been planted, clearly by the same people by the same means as gave us "get my country back". (People currently referred to the Met on suspicion of breaking electoral laws, incidentally). I don't think there is sufficient evidence to prove it was widely persuasive, though, but then that's the point of the kind of targeted online propaganda as developed by Cambridge Analytica. It only has to work with a small number of people in targeted seats to tip the balance. Meanwhile a much larger number of people are going to feel the consequences of that swing to the Tories in northern seats and no, they aren't going to be very happy when they see even more money going south.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sat 25 Jan, 2020 1:21 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/society/202 ... ship-grows" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

frog222 · Post by **frog222** » Sat 25 Jan, 2020 1:48 pm

Willow904 wrote:
AnatolyKasparov wrote:I think the above posts underestimate how many people in these seats were somehow convinced that voting for Johnson's Tories constituted "change".

(a blizzard of black propaganda on Facebook especially certainly helped create this impression)
I certainly think a lot of Labour voters were convinced to stay at home by the flood of anti-Corbyn propaganda. And it seems the BBC found a small group of people who moved from Labour to the Tories for "a change" to create an impression of a wider movement of working class people rejecting Labour for the Tories. Hard to know how true that is, though. Voting analysis I've seen just shows people moving from Labour generally, not especially to the Tories, and the Tories didn't win many more votes overall.

Voting Tory for "a change" is such a strange thing for so many people to come up with it certainly must have been planted, clearly by the same people by the same means as gave us "get my country back". (People currently referred to the Met on suspicion of breaking electoral laws, incidentally). I don't think there is sufficient evidence to prove it was widely persuasive, though, but then that's the point of the kind of targeted online propaganda as developed by Cambridge Analytica. It only has to work with a small number of people in targeted seats to tip the balance. Meanwhile a much larger number of people are going to feel the consequences of that swing to the Tories in northern seats and no, they aren't going to be very happy when they see even more money going south.

Willow -- somebody, perhaps here!, gave a link** analysing where vote-shifters went for all parties .
Some of Labour's 2017 went to the Tories, others to the LD's and the Brexit Party, while a good number simply abstained .

**I lost it, of course

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 25 Jan, 2020 2:53 pm

Andy Beckett has another of his customarily thoughtful pieces in the Graun - I do think weariness with constant political "turmoil" was a factor in last month's result.

Willow904 · Post by **Willow904** » Sat 25 Jan, 2020 3:02 pm

Yes, I've seen similar. And May lost a majority in 2017. Some of that Labour to Tory shift in 2019 could be people going back to the Tories, rather than lifelong Labour voters going Tory for the first time. We just don't know.

The Tories won more by dissuading people from voting for Labour than by persuading people to vote for Boris, it seems to me, combined with a longterm shift to the right in northern seats that created new marginals. And it's difficult to know how much of that shift is true rejection by former Labour voters and how much is from demographic change. Eg:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-43316697" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Where are the UK's youngest and oldest city populations?

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sat 25 Jan, 2020 3:58 pm

Good afternoon, everyone.

howsillyofme1 · Post by **howsillyofme1** » Sat 25 Jan, 2020 5:03 pm

Hi all

Some good analysis on what happened. Hard to disagree. I have had a feeling that the Tories would follow the Republican playbook and focus on demoralising Labour vote rather than converting it (although Brexit possibly helped the latter)

If we look back further to 97 there was also indication that a lot of the Tory vote abstained rather than converting and we all know how turnout has dropped off markedly since the 90s.

I would suggest that preventing someone from voting rather than converting them is somewhat easier

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sat 25 Jan, 2020 5:04 pm

Turnout was down in 1997 yes, but by most in strong Labour seats.

With hindsight, that was more significant than it appeared at the time.

Post by **adam** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 9:02 am

A short overview but with a useful central image, from the LSE Brexit Blog

“Global Britain” in a cold climate: Michael Cox and Tim Oliver on Brexit in 2020

Michael Cox and Tim Oliver compare the UK to a ship being tossed around on a stormy and cold ocean looking for a harbour that probably does not exist and a destination it might never arrive at.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 10:15 am

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... er-elected" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 10:18 am

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... ndy-street" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 10:26 am

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/brex ... reveals-pm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 10:55 am

morning all

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 11:06 am

Good morfternoon.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 11:09 am

HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... er-elected

The sort of complete non-story about Labour that the Observer specialises in.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 11:12 am

Brexit: Heseltine says celebrations rub remainers' noses in it

Commemorative 50p coin, countdown and Downing Street light display to mark departure on Friday
(Observer)

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... nose-in-it

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 11:15 am

Sky'sGoneOut hasn't been around for a while. I hope all's well.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 11:31 am

He was posting on Thursday night.

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 11:36 am

Right-ho - missed that. Thanks.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 12:04 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... iversities" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

PorFavor · Post by **PorFavor** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 12:40 pm

HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... iversities

From the above article -

The team also found female students attended courses with lower future average earnings than men, something the researchers said had implications for closing the gender pay gap.

What are these courses and why do they attract lower future average earnings? I feel that that's an important piece of information that is missing.

Edited - tidy up

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 1:30 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ed-its-mad" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 1:37 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... tewart-lee" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 4:45 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... inadequate" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 4:54 pm

PorFavor wrote:
HindleA wrote:https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... iversities
From the above article -
The team also found female students attended courses with lower future average earnings than men, something the researchers said had implications for closing the gender pay gap.
What are these courses and why do they attract lower future average earnings? I feel that that's an important piece of information that is missing.

Edited - tidy up

[Centre for Economic Performance] CEP Discussion Paper No 1647
August2019
Inequalities in Student to Course Match: Evidence from Linked Administrative Data

Abstract
This paper examines inequalities in the match between student quality and university quality using linked administrative data from schools, universities and tax authorities. We analyse two measures of match at the university-subject (course) level, based on student academic attainment, and graduate earnings.We find that students from lower socio-economic groups systematically undermatch for both measures across the distribution of attainment, with particularly stark socio-economic gaps for the most undermatched. While there are negligible gender gaps in academic match, high-attaining women systematically undermatch in terms of expected earnings, largely driven by subject choice.

http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp1647.pdf" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Regardless of how intelligent and academically gifted, students who don't come from money work harder getting somewhere. Choosing wealthy parents is the best thing to do.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 4:56 pm

Good evening, everyone.

citizenJA · Post by **citizenJA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 5:12 pm

What's going on with Brexit? Sajid Javid is waving a coin around. What is the UK's trade relation with other nations, please? Are EU nationals living in the UK going to be okay? Are UK nationals living within EU nations okay? What's their status going to be? What security do they have. What the fuck is going on, please?

tinyclanger2 · Post by **tinyclanger2** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 6:25 pm

Unfortunately the voting majority of 'the British public' don't give a flying one about people's actual lives.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 6:36 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... s-reversed" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 6:40 pm

"All that for a lousy 50p"

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 6:42 pm

"It's what orifice Javid obtained it that rather worries me"

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 6:48 pm

I still have a 73" ring of hands",more a function of aversion to spending(though of course no longer legal tender)than any commemorative reason.

AnatolyKasparov · Post by **AnatolyKasparov** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 6:54 pm

The front page of the Daily Mail the day we joined the then EEC is certainly a sight for the ages.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 6:59 pm

Q.What was the football score when the "three"played the "six" at Wembley in'73'

Answer after the break.

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 7:01 pm

Tbh I remember the game and who won but had to look up the score

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 7:20 pm

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 7:30 pm

https://www.gov.uk/staying-uk-eu-citizen" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 7:31 pm

https://www.gov.uk/transition" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 7:54 pm

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 7:55 pm

Seems

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 7:55 pm

To have left the stage

HindleA · Post by **HindleA** » Sun 26 Jan, 2020 7:56 pm

Encore!