1) the sitting MP John Denham is retiring and only just held on last time despite his personal popularity;
2) his replacement as Labour candidate, Rowenna Davis, is not from the area and her opponents (including a few disgruntled members of the local CLP, who claim she only won selection due to "love bombing" inactive members during the selection process and most activists did not support her) haven't exactly been slow to remind people of this;
3) chief among these is the Tory candidate Royston Smith, a former leader of Southampton borough who is controversial and very much a "Marmite" figure - but who retains a significant body of supporters who are almost fanatically loyal to him;
4) the council has been affected by a few adverse stories since Labour took control, and these have been exploited by UKIP who have polled well in recent by-elections and the 2014 regular polls. There is also one ward where two Labour concillors have broken away to become (TUSC in all but name) independents.
Based on all this and the last Ashcroft poll (which was however, as some of us pointed out, taken when most students were away) a possible shock has been talked up here.
But despite being derided as a parachutee, Davis also has some genuine qualities and this latest survey maybe indicates people are starting to notice them
![Wink ;)](./images/smilies/icon_e_wink.gif)