Saturday 3rd & Sunday 4th December 2022

[refitman]

Morning all.

[RogerOThornhill]

Good morning.

Truss might have though of herself as the lead guitarist but it turned out that she was the drummer...

Liz Truss wanted government turned up to 11, says former aide

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-63834307

Liz Truss took a "Spinal Tap approach" to government, with the volume turned up to 11, her former chief speechwriter has told the BBC.

Asa Bennett said Ms Truss demanded "fast action" to put "rocket boosters" on the British economy.

It was a "bitter regret for us all...it didn't come off like that," he added.

Ms Truss's government lasted just seven weeks after its mini-budget spooked financial markets, prompting Tory MPs to revolt and forcing her resignation.

Spinal Tap are a spoof heavy metal group created by a team of comedians and musicians, who famously had amplifiers that were "one louder" than 10.

[AnatolyKasparov]

The more it stays the same, the less it changes!

[PaulfromYorkshire]

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Peter Kellner taking on the role of Eeyore.

Chester by-election: not as good as it looks for Labour

https://kellnerpolitics.com/2022/12/02/ ... or-labour/

If the swing in the Chester by-election were repeated throughout Britain, Labour would have a majority of around 50. In that sense, the party can claim to be on course for a comfortable victory at the next election.

“Repeated throughout Britain….” Those words, or something similar, are uttered by every opposition party after every mid-term by-election where it gains ground on the Government. However, history warns us to treat such claims with care. The following table records the big post-war by-election swings to Labour. The good news for Labour is that Chester is its best result in the past 12 years of Conservative-led governments.

The bad news is that, if the past is any guide, it’s not nearly big enough to produce a Labour majority at the next election.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Unpaywalled link to article from Paul above.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/111f ... ea5c12ac92

What's this? Starmer being pusillanimous again? Say it aint so.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Kellner is reading things wrong, even if not as egregiously as Rentoul.

John Curtice's assessment - that the Chester result basically shows the polls are right, and Labour are on course for a big win - rings rather truer.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

The problem is it's perfectly possible to reach wildly different conclusions from the same result and not be wrong. Kellner's analysis is sound, but it's also entirely reasonable to conclude that the by-election result backed up the polls. Such is the peril of interpreting a single dataset.

History has taught me to err on the side of cautious pessimism as far as getting rid of the Tories is concerned. We all know how difficult they are to flush.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Sure, but there's more to things than "Chester swing is lower than some Labour achieved in the 1992-97 parliament, so they are inevitably doomed" (I appreciate Kellner is being a *bit* more nuanced than this, but the above is basically Ren-tool's "argument" in full)

It was Labour's best ever result in the seat, not just in percentage victory margin terms, but share of vote and even actual numerical majority (despite the inevitable fall in turnout) And it is a constituency that has clearly majorly trended to Labour already if you compare the 2010 result to 2019's. This means their room for further improvement is more limited. Let's have one of the rumoured byelections in (say) Tamworth or Selby, and see how things go.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Curmudgeonly contrarian knobhead indulges in concern trolling about a woman enjoying herself at a club raising money for a homeless charity.

Everyone tells him he's talking bollocks.

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Thanks Sky

[AnatolyKasparov]

Sanna Marin and Jacinda Ardern say hi, Dan.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Wealthy right wing harridan indulges in tin eared whinge claiming that removing charitable tax breaks from private schools is 'class spite' and that somehow the 7% who are privately educated represent the middle class.

Britain has declared war on the middle classes - Camilla Tominey

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/1 ... e-classes/

Would Dame Kate have been where she is today without her highly “privileged” education? Possibly not. Would Mr Sunak be Prime Minister if he hadn’t been head boy at Winchester College? I sincerely doubt it.

Umm...and? Exactly what point are you trying to make here? Because it sounds like you're saying a private education allows people opportunities they'd never have had without it. Which is kinda what pisses the rest of us off.

Instead of celebrating hard-working parents like the Binghams and the Sunaks of this world, who take a load off the state by paying to educate their children, the Labour leader has decided to make an example of them.

His proposal to strip schools in the independent sector of their charitable status not only smacks of Corbynite class-spite but represents yet another assault on the aspirational middle classes, who increasingly appear to be the most politically despised group in Britain.

Give over woman, private schools are not, and never have been, charities, it's a tax scam. If you want to privately educate your kids then pay for it yourself, don't expect us to subsidise your entitled self indulgence.

The ethos of the age has turned from meritocratic to misanthropic. The secret to society’s success now appears to be everyone being as miserable as each other.

How the fuck is paying to give your kids a private education meritocratic? It entrenches privilege you slack jawed simpleton. That's what it's for.

What sort of message does that send? That thrifty, prudent, careful, hardworking people might as well stop dreaming of a better life and sink to the level of the lowest common denominator.

Or maybe it would mean more wealthy parents had a stake in the state school system leading to greater pressure for improvement.

In the current epoch of junior common room “egalitarianism”, anyone who tries to better themselves and their family is slapped down and told their efforts are somehow unfair to other people. They are meant to simply suck it up, while those out of work enjoy a 10 per cent rise in benefits, and the number of working-age benefits claimants has shot up by 23 per cent since Covid.

Go fuck yourself. "Oh how awful, I can't afford to send Tarquin to Ballyfrumpton Hall while those horrible dole people are getting an extra £7.50 a week." Talk about the politics of envy.

[AnatolyKasparov]

The point is, she GENUINELY believes the likes of her represent the "middle class".

[PaulfromYorkshire]

Zahawi on with the same kind of narrative this morning. If you go on strike you’re playing into Putin’s hands.

I mean how fucked up is that logic?

I assume he’s still trying to associate Russia with communism?

[AnatolyKasparov]

They will just chuck any old mud and hope some sticks, not sure if there is much more to things than that tbh.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Zahawi on with the same kind of narrative this morning. If you go on strike you’re playing into Putin’s hands.

I mean how fucked up is that logic?

He also claimed the starting wage for a nurse was £31,000 a year which is obvious bollocks. It's pretty difficult to take lectures on fiscal prudence from a millionaire who thought it perfectly acceptable to use thousands of pounds of public money to keep his horses warm.

[refitman]

Didn't I say Starmer would make no fundamental changes to anything, just tinker round the edges (if that much, at all)

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Allez le Blues!

[AnatolyKasparov]

Well all that story says is that Labour peers (not at all self-interested here, perish the thought) are telling SKS not to do something.

Brown's actual proposals are being revealed tomorrow, I think - will be intriguing to see what they say.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Didn't I say Starmer would make no fundamental changes to anything, just tinker round the edges (if that much, at all)

To be fair on this occasion it appears that he's being warned not to do something rather than doing nothing of his own accord which is what we normally get.

Frankly I couldn't give a toss about reforming the Lords if there's no voting reform for the Commons.

[AnatolyKasparov]

Starmer expressed support for electoral reform before becoming Labour leader, but his line now is that it is "not a priority".

(of course, that might still leave a certain amount of wriggle room if the circumstances require it)

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Starmer expressed support for a second referendum before becoming Labour leader and now have to 'make brexit work', so if he stays true to form instead of voting reform we'll end up not being able to vote at all.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

An interesting performance from England there. They tried to play football for half an hour, failed miserably, then started hoofing it down the pitch and it worked. I look forward to them trying that against France. Seriously, I'm not trying to be funny. There's no way that England team has the players to take on the French midfield but lobbing it forward at the shaky French defence could well pay dividends. Mind you Mbappe running at Stones and Maguire offers the potential for all sorts of hilarious slapstick shenanigans. It should be a good game.

I'd make France the odds on favourites but England are certainly capable of causing an upset.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Oh god. Why is Brown clapping and why is Lisa Nandy wearing a 'Great Britain' top? As for Starmer he looks like an undercover cop trying to fit in and look casual. It's painful. I do like the orange bucket chairs though.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Anyway so I voted for Labour under Corbyn both times despite thinking he was a dick. I've explained why I think he's a dick multiple times so I don't feel it necessary to go over that again, but at least he never treated me like a mug. Under Corbyn Labour never tried to gaslight me or treat me like a fool. Apart from about Brexit of course. The argument goes that he campaigned quietly under the radar. Did he fuck. He sat on the fence then fell off it while idiotically agreeing to Johnson's snap election. Stupid twat. And now we have a Labour leader who initially I supported thinking him a rational pragmatist but who turns out to be a bullshitting coward who will lie to my face. And the worst thing is I know he knows he's lying. He's taking me for a mug while also lying to those he's trying to impress.

The thing is though it seems to be working so what the fuck do I know?

I know that unless it looks close I won't be voting Labour at the next election.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Do you hear that Keir? Did it make you shake In your M&S trainers and jacket from the TK MaXX bargain bin?

Well it should. Because if I'm sick to the back teeth of being treated like a mug then I can guarantee you I'm not alone.

[Sky'sGoneOut]

Just look at those wimples.

[Sky'sGoneOut]