AnatolyKasparov wrote:I've given up predicting stuff after the last few years
Totally agree, but can't help myself. This is very speculative.
So one interesting thing to look for in the states as time passes will be what the mid-terms are looking like. I've read forecasts saying that the house is so gerrymandered that the dems could win nationally by five or six points, and even win state by state by a few ponts, but still not take control, but just imagine for a moment that it looks like they could do. (They could take control of the senate but it would be very hard - there are only 8 republican senators up this time. It's impossible for the dems to get to 60 (conviction number) without GOP senators flipping). (The GOP have precedent here - the house impeached Clinton but the democrats in the senate stood by him and he wasn't convicted and served out his term).
Anyway... if it gets closer and closer to the white house then at some point the white house and the GOP are going to have to make a decision - because Trump can rely on the naked partisanship of the GOP in congress to keep him safe for the time being, but could be impeached by a democrat house - and if he was the senate might feel they need to cut their losses - and if there was a dem house and the Pres and VP both fell (and the seth abramson stuff suggests this could happen) then next in line is the house speaker. At the moment that is Paul Ryan. If the Dem's were to take congress it would probably be Nancy Pelosi.
So if things look like they could be getting tight, then either watch the arrogant shit accept it and go (can't see it) OR watch Pence pay the price so they can have a succession in place who won't get cuffed immediately if Trump is forced out.