Wednesday 12th December 2018
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Welcome to FTN. New posters are welcome to join the conversation. You can follow us on Twitter @FlythenestHaven You are responsible for the content you post. This is a public forum. Treat it as if you are speaking in a crowded room. Site admin and Moderators are volunteers who will respond as quickly as they are able to when made aware of any complaints. Please do not post copyrighted material without the original authors permission.
Wednesday 12th December 2018
Morngin all.
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
CONFIRMED: Mrs May will face a no confidence vote
[Norman Smith]
[Norman Smith]
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
Am told no confidence vote will be tonight. @theresa_may
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
Teaspoon wren, badgered, publishes no confidence letter (4,8).
Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
May not have been fully awake.PaulfromYorkshire wrote:
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
Here you go
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
[youtube]RV-6qbUHVww[/youtube]
(Currently touring Europe, but coming soon to a field of wheat, near you.)
(Currently touring Europe, but coming soon to a field of wheat, near you.)
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
Morning all.
"So, should we get a constitutional expert to give us the lowdown on what happens now?"
"No, let's that that tedious right wing bore Charles Moore just because he wrote a book on Thatcher once"
"Great idea!"
"So, should we get a constitutional expert to give us the lowdown on what happens now?"
"No, let's that that tedious right wing bore Charles Moore just because he wrote a book on Thatcher once"
"Great idea!"
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
Bit too early for that. I'm having a cup of tea.refitman wrote:Morngin all.
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
Well quite...
The Secret Barrister
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28 months ago, the Conservative Party elected Theresa May leader with 60% of the vote.
29 months ago, 51.9% of voters supported leaving the EU.
On one of these, it’s fine to ask if people have changed their minds. To do so on the other is apparently an affront to democracy.
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Right, off to swimming with Y5...
Right, off to swimming with Y5...
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
Good morfternoon.
Technical question -
Graham Brady is saying that the requirement is for the threshold (of 48, we're told) to be exceeded. Does that mean that there are, as a minimum, 49 letters sculling about?
Oh - the trip to Ireland is off.
Technical question -
Graham Brady is saying that the requirement is for the threshold (of 48, we're told) to be exceeded. Does that mean that there are, as a minimum, 49 letters sculling about?
Oh - the trip to Ireland is off.
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
Mrs May said: "I will contest that vote with everything I have got".
She said a new prime minister would have to scrap or extend Article 50 - the mechanism taking Britain out of the EU on 29 March - "delaying or even stopping Brexit".
She said a new prime minister would have to scrap or extend Article 50 - the mechanism taking Britain out of the EU on 29 March - "delaying or even stopping Brexit".
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
It's 15%, which I make as 47.25 Tory MPs.PorFavor wrote:Good morfternoon.
Technical question -
Graham Brady is saying that the requirement is for the threshold (of 48, we're told) to be exceeded. Does that mean that there are, as a minimum, 49 letters sculling about?
Oh - the trip to Ireland is off.
So 48 exceeds the threshold
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
OK, one more before I go...
Mark Wallace
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By sod’s law, the CCHQ Christmas Party is tonight.
12:18 AM - 12 Dec 2018
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
Thanks - I'd forgotten about the 15% solution!PaulfromYorkshire wrote:It's 15%, which I make as 47.25 Tory MPs.PorFavor wrote:Good morfternoon.
Technical question -
Graham Brady is saying that the requirement is for the threshold (of 48, we're told) to be exceeded. Does that mean that there are, as a minimum, 49 letters sculling about?
Oh - the trip to Ireland is off.
So 48 exceeds the threshold
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
https://www.theguardian.com/society/201 ... able-homes" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Luxury Kensington complex will have just five affordable homes
Luxury Kensington complex will have just five affordable homes
Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
Hard to get excited about one Tory being placed by another Tory.
Rudd is probably more intelligent than May.
Otherwise most of the other possible contenders are infinitely worse.
It would, however, be hilarious if we ended up with Gove. Even the Tory party couldn't survive that, surely.
Rudd is probably more intelligent than May.
Otherwise most of the other possible contenders are infinitely worse.
It would, however, be hilarious if we ended up with Gove. Even the Tory party couldn't survive that, surely.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
https://www.gov.uk/government/publicati ... data-packs" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Recent trends in mortality in England: review and data packs
A report on recent trends in life expectancy and mortality in England.
Recent trends in mortality in England: review and data packs
A report on recent trends in life expectancy and mortality in England.
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/press/pres ... ocialshare" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
The King’s Fund response to Public Health England's review of life expectancy
The King’s Fund response to Public Health England's review of life expectancy
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
A bit of a cock up on the communication front...so no coach and therefore no swim. Result - one class of disappointed kids...
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
Not unlikely that May wins, I'd have thought. Where then for the ERG?
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Here's how I think it goes; May wins but has to promise to go after Brexit; ERG realise the hard Brexit game is up and some signal abstention on parliament Confidence vote; ditto DUP; Govt falls.
One world, like it or not - John Martyn
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
https://www.parliament.uk/business/comm ... nce-17-19/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Universal Credit’s two-child benefit limit examined
https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/6 ... 74bd1aebd7" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Universal Credit’s two-child benefit limit examined
https://parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/6 ... 74bd1aebd7" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
On the basis that the count of tories saying they would vote against May's deal reached around a hundred, that seems a reasonable figure to look for as 'par' for the vote against her. Her behaviour about everything else suggests that she will carry on regardless so long as she wins.
It would be hilarious to see Amber Rudd win and then lose her seat at the next General Election.
It would be hilarious to see Amber Rudd win and then lose her seat at the next General Election.
I still believe in a town called Hope
Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
It's infuriating to hear political interviewers now challenge the ludicrous assertions made by the likes of the ERG members when the time for that was before the Referendum.
Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
I still can't see Tory MPs voting for a GE they might lose, myself. Perhaps the DUP would but I could see the DUP just as easily going the other way and accepting the UK staying in the single market or even the EU, especially if they could frame it as being regretfully forced upon them etc etc. Their priority is protecting the union. Corbyn is currently advocating a permanent customs union but not remaining in the single market so I can't actually see how this would be any different for NI in practice to May's deal, if her backstop were to kick in. It's my understanding that, although helpful, a CU alone wouldn't be enough to prevent a hard border in Ireland so if we want to leave the single market and respect the GFA there will have to be some degree of border in the Irish Sea. Making the DUP a prime example of the phrase "be careful what you wish for". They're in a hole.gilsey wrote:Not unlikely that May wins, I'd have thought. Where then for the ERG?
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Here's how I think it goes; May wins but has to promise to go after Brexit; ERG realise the hard Brexit game is up and some signal abstention on parliament Confidence vote; ditto DUP; Govt falls.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
I agree - that's what the December 2017 agreement says. No backstop - no withdrawal agreement. No withdrawal agreement - no transition. That's the choice MPs have to make. That's what the media should be putting to them.Willow904 wrote:Snip It's my understanding that, although helpful, a CU alone wouldn't be enough to prevent a hard border in Ireland so if we want to leave the single market and respect the GFA there will have to be some degree of border in the Irish Sea. Snap
I still believe in a town called Hope
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
https://metro.co.uk/2018/12/11/as-a-dis ... ssion=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
As a disabled person I shouldn’t have to wear a nappy if I want to travel by plane
As a disabled person I shouldn’t have to wear a nappy if I want to travel by plane
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
Can't argue with this.
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If only Cameron hadn't held a referendum at the behest of barking nationalists wanting to break up a prosperous & peaceful union, thereby entrenching seemingly irremediable divisions, & making the whole country go mad.
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
Gove is risible in many ways, but has a certain amount of political nous. Total implosion would be more likely if BoJo or a genuine ERGer won (latter certainly won't happen tho)Willow904 wrote:Hard to get excited about one Tory being placed by another Tory.
Rudd is probably more intelligent than May.
Otherwise most of the other possible contenders are infinitely worse.
It would, however, be hilarious if we ended up with Gove. Even the Tory party couldn't survive that, surely.
I think that Rudd is *too* pro-EU to ever lead the party, though. For all his well known failings, Jeremy Hunt might be the "safe" pick to succeed May at this point.
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
Yikes!
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
Is it just my imagination or has Liam Fox been very quiet recently?
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
May apparently accusing Labour of "chaos and confusion" at PMQs. She has impressive brass neck, I will give her that
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
I'd love to hear what Ed Miliband thinks of all this. Although I understand why he might think it prudent (for the sake of the Labour Party) to keep quiet at this juncture.
Edited - to add the bit in brackets
Edited - to add the bit in brackets
Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
I can't bring myself to like a post that suggests Jeremy Hunt as PM, so I'm replying instead to indicate I appreciate the contribution! I agree Rudd is unlikely to do well with Tory members. I'm not sure Jeremy Hunt would do that well either, though. Given MP support is needed to get on the ballot, it's hard to guess who would be in the running but a pretty safe bet that the most Eurosceptic option would win the membership vote. Probably all hypothetical, though, as May still seems more likely than not to survive.AnatolyKasparov wrote:Gove is risible in many ways, but has a certain amount of political nous. Total implosion would be more likely if BoJo or a genuine ERGer won (latter certainly won't happen tho)Willow904 wrote:Hard to get excited about one Tory being placed by another Tory.
Rudd is probably more intelligent than May.
Otherwise most of the other possible contenders are infinitely worse.
It would, however, be hilarious if we ended up with Gove. Even the Tory party couldn't survive that, surely.
I think that Rudd is *too* pro-EU to ever lead the party, though. For all his well known failings, Jeremy Hunt might be the "safe" pick to succeed May at this point.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
Building works going on here today, and the electricity keeps getting turned on and off. So I'm getting stuff in instalments.
It looks, on the face of it, like Theresa May will survive. Can't say I hold out much hope for anything else, though. We could end up in the position where "Nothing has changed." Deadlock.
It looks, on the face of it, like Theresa May will survive. Can't say I hold out much hope for anything else, though. We could end up in the position where "Nothing has changed." Deadlock.
Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
There's a suggestion that the ERG would try to organise to put just one candidate forward - although they way the MPs stage of the election works you can coalesce around one candidate as it goes along. It seems much more likely than not that she will win comfortably. I suspect that a good number of the 100 or so who have said they will vote down her deal will vote for her today - it's another sign that Labour were absolutely right not to rush into a common's Confidence vote, I think.Willow904 wrote:I can't bring myself to like a post that suggests Jeremy Hunt as PM, so I'm replying instead to indicate I appreciate the contribution! I agree Rudd is unlikely to do well with Tory members. I'm not sure Jeremy Hunt would do that well either, though. Given MP support is needed to get on the ballot, it's hard to guess who would be in the running but a pretty safe bet that the most Eurosceptic option would win the membership vote. Probably all hypothetical, though, as May still seems more likely than not to survive.
I still believe in a town called Hope
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
Says everything about where we currently stand that he is quite genuinely one of the "less bad" optionsWillow904 wrote:I can't bring myself to like a post that suggests Jeremy Hunt as PMAnatolyKasparov wrote:Gove is risible in many ways, but has a certain amount of political nous. Total implosion would be more likely if BoJo or a genuine ERGer won (latter certainly won't happen tho)Willow904 wrote:Hard to get excited about one Tory being placed by another Tory.
Rudd is probably more intelligent than May.
Otherwise most of the other possible contenders are infinitely worse.
It would, however, be hilarious if we ended up with Gove. Even the Tory party couldn't survive that, surely.
I think that Rudd is *too* pro-EU to ever lead the party, though. For all his well known failings, Jeremy Hunt might be the "safe" pick to succeed May at this point.
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
It's just occurred to me that my Labour Party membership came up for renewal a while ago. I'm trying to summon up the energy and enthusiasm to do something about it. It's odd that they haven't sent me a reminder - it's been a fair while.
Edited - typo
Edited - typo
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
There could be an election soon! Let that be your motivation
(probably won't be, even now, but its possible)
(probably won't be, even now, but its possible)
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
PorFavor wrote:I'd love to hear what Ed Miliband thinks of all this. Although I understand why he might think it prudent (for the sake of the Labour Party) to keep quiet at this juncture.
Edited - to add the bit in brackets
If it all goes wrong for Theresa May tonight, Ed Miliband has some helpful career advice ...
Ed Miliband
✔ @Ed_Miliband
.@theresa_may If it goes wrong tonight I can promise you a bright future in podcasting...
26.4K
12:03 PM - Dec 12, 2018
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
Apparently two previously suspended Tory MPs have just had the party whip restored - it means that May "needs" one more vote tonight.
(though in reality of course, she probably needs a few more)
(though in reality of course, she probably needs a few more)
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
So what do we want or think will happen this evening as this tawdry internecine self indulgence reaches its wretched conclusion?
I'm almost tempted to hope May loses and they end up with Johnson, because so many Tory MPs have now said they'll resign the whip if he becomes leader that even with the DUP he wouldn't be able to form a government.
But I reckon May will scrape through and stagger on even with a slim victory and that would undoubtedly be good for the remain or softer brexit cause. Indeed a lass from the Spectator on Newsnight last night was saying it was remainer Tory MPs who'd contacted her to say they'd submitted their letters to trigger this vote of no confidence in the hope that it would finally kill off the ERG loonies and leave a neutered May more amenable to reason.
So I find myself in the unenviable position of cheering on Theresa May, but in a half hearted 'hope she wins but not by much' kinda way.
But who the fuck knows what's going to happen?
I'm almost tempted to hope May loses and they end up with Johnson, because so many Tory MPs have now said they'll resign the whip if he becomes leader that even with the DUP he wouldn't be able to form a government.
But I reckon May will scrape through and stagger on even with a slim victory and that would undoubtedly be good for the remain or softer brexit cause. Indeed a lass from the Spectator on Newsnight last night was saying it was remainer Tory MPs who'd contacted her to say they'd submitted their letters to trigger this vote of no confidence in the hope that it would finally kill off the ERG loonies and leave a neutered May more amenable to reason.
So I find myself in the unenviable position of cheering on Theresa May, but in a half hearted 'hope she wins but not by much' kinda way.
But who the fuck knows what's going to happen?
Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
It's been annoying me all day -
Theresa May's "I have dedicated myself unsparingly". What - for free and gratis? She's the bloody Prime Minister, for God's sake!
Theresa May's "I have dedicated myself unsparingly". What - for free and gratis? She's the bloody Prime Minister, for God's sake!
Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
I'm sure that, if she wins, Theresa May will carry on exactly as she has done before.
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
I'm sure it's dreadful English tooPorFavor wrote:It's been annoying me all day -
Theresa May's "I have dedicated myself unsparingly". What - for free and gratis? She's the bloody Prime Minister, for God's sake!
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Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
I spare nothing in my dedication....
[before you ask]
[before you ask]
Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
Rather making a meal out of counting these votes - even allowing for the fact that there's a whole 2 choices to contend with.
Re: Wednesday 12th December 2018
I'm quite looking forward to watching Kevin Maguire's take on all this later on the Sky TV news Press Preview. That's if I can stay awake for long enough.
Edited to add -
PTO
Edited to add -
PTO
Last edited by PorFavor on Wed 12 Dec, 2018 9:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.