Thursday 14th March 2019
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Welcome to FTN. New posters are welcome to join the conversation. You can follow us on Twitter @FlythenestHaven You are responsible for the content you post. This is a public forum. Treat it as if you are speaking in a crowded room. Site admin and Moderators are volunteers who will respond as quickly as they are able to when made aware of any complaints. Please do not post copyrighted material without the original authors permission.
Thursday 14th March 2019
Morning all.
- RogerOThornhill
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Morning all.
I see Nick Timothy is trending on that Twitter. Some people are rather aghast at the brass neck...
I see Nick Timothy is trending on that Twitter. Some people are rather aghast at the brass neck...
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Live your life with the confidence of Nick Timothy on the front page of the Telegraph lecturing everyone about political judgement
10:58 PM - 13 Mar 2019
James Ball
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Nick Timothy, or as he’s known in Westminster circles, “oh, fuck off”.
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Ken Clarke on Sky News making the point that if we get to 29th March without a deal or extension, as parliament has voted against leaving with no deal, the government ought to make use of its right to revoke article 50.
Also dismissive of a short extension of just a few months. Will be interesting to see how the extension debate develops later on, given both the Tory and Labour leadership have both been reluctant to consider anything other than a very short extension. I presume Yvette Cooper will lead the arguments for a substantial extension.
Also dismissive of a short extension of just a few months. Will be interesting to see how the extension debate develops later on, given both the Tory and Labour leadership have both been reluctant to consider anything other than a very short extension. I presume Yvette Cooper will lead the arguments for a substantial extension.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
https://obr.uk/efo/economic-fiscal-outlook-march-2019/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Mhttps://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/2019/mar/13/hillsborough-match-commander-will-not-testify-at-his-trial?CMP=share_btn_tw&__twitter_impression=true" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cornwa ... 643648.amp" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
HindleA wrote:https://amp.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... ssion=true
I can't get the link to work.
Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the Commons, is announcing the Commons business for next week.
She has not timetabled a Brexit debate next week - even though the government motion being debated later sets Wednesday as the deadline for Theresa May’s deal to be passed. (Politics Live, Guardian)
Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
This is a response to a tweet from our former friend, who I've muted so I haven't seen it.Rob Ford
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To be fair to Labour there’s some logic to this. Opponents of May’s deal need to coalesce around a single alternative. That means convincing either 2nd ref backers or soft Brexiteers their cause is dead. And 2nd ref has much less potential to win needed Con votes
I think Rob Ford is correct in what he says but he may waste a lot of time arguing with that person if he's not careful.
Anyway, I have a question about these theoretical 'indicative votes'. Is the idea that MPs wouldn't have to choose one alternative over another? So one question, 2nd ref? yes, separate vote, CU+? also yes. Or no, as the case may be.
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Donald Tusk is leading.Willow904 wrote:Ken Clarke on Sky News making the point that if we get to 29th March without a deal or extension, as parliament has voted against leaving with no deal, the government ought to make use of its right to revoke article 50.
Also dismissive of a short extension of just a few months. Will be interesting to see how the extension debate develops later on, given both the Tory and Labour leadership have both been reluctant to consider anything other than a very short extension. I presume Yvette Cooper will lead the arguments for a substantial extension.
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During my consultations ahead of #EUCO, I will appeal to the EU27 to be open to a long extension if the UK finds it necessary to rethink its #Brexit strategy and build consensus around it.
One world, like it or not - John Martyn
Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Breaking news - 1 former soldier to be charged with the murders of 2 men and the attempted murders of 4 others in events of Bloody Sunday in 1972.
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Take 2
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... -his-trial" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/201 ... -his-trial" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... llegations" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
https://www.ifs.org.uk/spring-statement-2019" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
- RogerOThornhill
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
If I were the PM I'd do an address to the nation:
"When my predecessor came up with this ridiculous idea of holding a referendum, nobody - not Leavers nor Remainers - knew about the complexities of what was being proposed. Now that we know about some of them, it's fairly clear that it was far more complicated than the leaders of the leave side were prepared to admit.
So, for now, we're staying in. My government will revoke Article 50 immediately.
And 'the will of the people'?
Well, to be honest, not many of you knew how complex it was either. If you want to blame someone then look in the direction of the Leave leaders."
"When my predecessor came up with this ridiculous idea of holding a referendum, nobody - not Leavers nor Remainers - knew about the complexities of what was being proposed. Now that we know about some of them, it's fairly clear that it was far more complicated than the leaders of the leave side were prepared to admit.
So, for now, we're staying in. My government will revoke Article 50 immediately.
And 'the will of the people'?
Well, to be honest, not many of you knew how complex it was either. If you want to blame someone then look in the direction of the Leave leaders."
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
That would be a terrific "number 10 doorstep" speech from Corbyn if there is a snap election and Labour win itRogerOThornhill wrote:If I were the PM I'd do an address to the nation:
"When my predecessor came up with this ridiculous idea of holding a referendum, nobody - not Leavers nor Remainers - knew about the complexities of what was being proposed. Now that we know about some of them, it's fairly clear that it was far more complicated than the leaders of the leave side were prepared to admit.
So, for now, we're staying in. My government will revoke Article 50 immediately.
And 'the will of the people'?
Well, to be honest, not many of you knew how complex it was either. If you want to blame someone then look in the direction of the Leave leaders."
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
- RogerOThornhill
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Thread on Commons business - including an amendment from Chris Bryant that would stop TM from bring back the damn thing a third time.
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Jessica Elgot
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Speaker selects amendments - including the second referendum amendment, the indicative votes amendment and Labour’s amendment.
NOT the one rejecting a second referendum- Mark Francois apoplectic
@jessicaelgot
Speaker selects amendments - including the second referendum amendment, the indicative votes amendment and Labour’s amendment.
NOT the one rejecting a second referendum- Mark Francois apoplectic
Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Bercow calls four amendments, including one calling for a second referendum (Politics Live, Guardian)
Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Sarah Wollaston's amendment to ask for an article 50 extension sufficient to hold a referendum has been selected.
I think it's going first. Not sure if the others will be voted on if it passes.
I think it's going first. Not sure if the others will be voted on if it passes.
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
There's now lots of argy bargy about the selection of the amendments. Mark Francois, for example, is not happy.
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Really?PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Mark Francois apoplectic
If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.
Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
@PaulfromYorkshire
Whoops - sorry!
Whoops - sorry!
Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Yeah, not sure why. The second referendum amendment being defeated effects the same result, so it becomes superfluous.PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
Speaker selects amendments - including the second referendum amendment, the indicative votes amendment and Labour’s amendment.
NOT the one rejecting a second referendum- Mark Francois apoplectic
"Fall seven times, get up eight" - Japanese proverb
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Is he ever?PorFavor wrote:There's now lots of argy bargy about the selection of the amendments. Mark Francois, for example, is not happy.
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
PorFavor wrote:@PaulfromYorkshire
Whoops - sorry!
I thought yours was a crossword clue for a moment!
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Ooh also includes Chris Bryant's "you can't bring your deal back for a third time according to the rules" amendment.
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Well quite.Willow904 wrote:Yeah, not sure why. The second referendum amendment being defeated effects the same result, so it becomes superfluous.PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
Speaker selects amendments - including the second referendum amendment, the indicative votes amendment and Labour’s amendment.
NOT the one rejecting a second referendum- Mark Francois apoplectic
Almost like the anti-2nd ref are afraid that the Commons might actually vote in favour.
No surprise that the usual suspects - Guido etc - are screeching about Bercow being partisan. You can't have MPs voting on a motion which is to stop MPs voting on something - nonsensical.
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Very little sign of that on previous form, but we will have to see I suppose.RogerOThornhill wrote:Well quite.Willow904 wrote:Yeah, not sure why. The second referendum amendment being defeated effects the same result, so it becomes superfluous.PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Jessica Elgot
@jessicaelgot
Speaker selects amendments - including the second referendum amendment, the indicative votes amendment and Labour’s amendment.
NOT the one rejecting a second referendum- Mark Francois apoplectic
Almost like the anti-2nd ref are afraid that the Commons might actually vote in favour.
No surprise that the usual suspects - Guido etc - are screeching about Bercow being partisan. You can't have MPs voting on a motion which is to stop MPs voting on something - nonsensical.
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
If I'm right about the second referendum amendment going first, I'm not sure Bercow can be accused of favouring Labour in any way. A lot of Labour supporters are going to find this painful:
We're deep into the territory now where passing over an acceptable compromise in order to pursue an ideal risks the worst possible outcome with no chance to do over.
The indicative votes amendment is the truly vital one though. If it's looking like an extension isn't going to happen, the opportunity to hold a vote on revocation may become the only way to prevent a no deal exit.
Next week? We have no idea if they'll be another opportunity to vote for a second referendum next week, not least because any extension requests are going to need to go in by the 20th March at the latest.Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
NEW: @johnmcdonnellMP tells me Labour will not be backing amendment for second referendum tonight, but could do next week. Also still undecided on whether to back Benn/Cooper/Letwin amendment in indicative votes, which lots of Labour backbenchers are supporting.
We're deep into the territory now where passing over an acceptable compromise in order to pursue an ideal risks the worst possible outcome with no chance to do over.
The indicative votes amendment is the truly vital one though. If it's looking like an extension isn't going to happen, the opportunity to hold a vote on revocation may become the only way to prevent a no deal exit.
Last edited by Willow904 on Thu 14 Mar, 2019 1:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Yes. I'm a bit confused as to why "if it's against the rules" bringing it back for a third time isn't automatically ruled out.PaulfromYorkshire wrote:Ooh also includes Chris Bryant's "you can't bring your deal back for a third time according to the rules" amendment.
Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;Faisal Islam
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NEW Lidington: Government facilitate two week indicative vote process in April
...IF longer extension agreed, meaningful vote goes down, and UK takes part in European elections
?
My brain hurts.
What the friggin' frig is Theresa May up to now?
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Hmmm, "still undecided" at this stage suggests there is a good chance they ultimately will?Willow904 wrote:If I'm right about the second referendum amendment going first, I'm not sure Bercow can be accused of favouring Labour in any way. A lot of Labour supporters are going to find this painful:Next week? We have no idea if they'll be another opportunity to vote for a second referendum next week, not least because any extension requests are going to need to go in by the 20th March at the latest.Paul Brand
@PaulBrandITV
NEW: @johnmcdonnellMP tells me Labour will not be backing amendment for second referendum tonight, but could do next week. Also still undecided on whether to back Benn/Cooper/Letwin amendment in indicative votes, which lots of Labour backbenchers are supporting.
We're deep into the territory now where passing over an acceptable compromise in order to pursue an ideal risks the worst possible outcome with no chance to do over.
The indicative votes amendment is the truly vital one though. If it's looking like an extension isn't going to happen, the opportunity to hold a vote on revocation may become the only way to prevent a no deal exit.
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
OBR "reveals" the obvious ie.savings via UC delay and consequent removal of "transitional protection";non repeated assessments was due to lack of capacity,similarly PIP transfers delay.Patently obvious that the extremely worrying combined assessment [and pensioner exemption musings ](although this Government appropriation rears its ugly head with regularly )as a way of countering this current inability.Of course there was absolutely no need for the cynical extreme waste of money in the creation of PIP in the first place.
Last edited by HindleA on Thu 14 Mar, 2019 1:58 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
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New - Phil Wilson tells me he is abstaining on People’s Vote amendment because of the timing. Big ref supporter. He is behind the yet-to-be-put Kyle-Wilson amendment which would approve the deal subject to a second referendum. Very significant that group backing Labour position.
4
1:31 PM - Mar 14, 2019 (Politics Live, Guardian)
Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Is everyone ignoring my question (above) about bringing back Theresa May's deal for a third time because I'm being unbelievably thick?
Go on - I can take it.
Go on - I can take it.
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Away from Brexit just for a moment, I presume some of you have seen the proposals of Scott Mann (a Tory MP, and no relation I presume) to "solve" knife crime?
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
You would think sensible people would realise that risking all income by such "simplification" was a bad idea.Improving the "costumer journey" to the mortuary.
Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
I haven't. What are they?AnatolyKasparov wrote:Away from Brexit just for a moment, I presume some of you have seen the proposals of Scott Mann (a Tory MP, and no relation I presume) to "solve" knife crime?
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
i think the short answer is that it would *probably* be against the rules, but people aren't totally sure. And she could always make some cosmetic "changes" anyway.PorFavor wrote:Is everyone ignoring my question (above) about bringing back Theresa May's deal for a third time because I'm being unbelievably thick?
Go on - I can take it.
"IS TONTY BLAIR BEHIND THIS???!!!!111???!!!"
- RogerOThornhill
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Presumably the "wait and see" approach for a 2nd ref is that they need an agreed extension before moving it.
at the moment we're still leaving at the end of the month so supporting a 2nd ref is a bit pointless since there's no time for it to happen
at the moment we're still leaving at the end of the month so supporting a 2nd ref is a bit pointless since there's no time for it to happen
If I'm not here, then I'll be in the library. Or the other library.
Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Thanks for the response.AnatolyKasparov wrote:i think the short answer is that it would *probably* be against the rules, but people aren't totally sure. And she could always make some cosmetic "changes" anyway.PorFavor wrote:Is everyone ignoring my question (above) about bringing back Theresa May's deal for a third time because I'm being unbelievably thick?
Go on - I can take it.
So even if it were against the rules and \or if the amendment passed, she could still do it anyway if she made some cosmetic changes. So what's the point of the amendment?
Last edited by PorFavor on Thu 14 Mar, 2019 1:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
"lost track"
Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
I think the slightly infuriating answer is that whilst there are detailed rules about how things must be done, parliament is (literally) a law unto itself in terms of how it runs its business, and I suspect that parliament would probably try to find a way to knock this out by saying 'this simply can't be done' ALTHOUGH if there is anyone who might decide that these are the rules so this is how we're doing it because your not even trying to pretend it's a different motion this time, it's Bercow.AnatolyKasparov wrote:i think the short answer is that it would *probably* be against the rules, but people aren't totally sure. And she could always make some cosmetic "changes" anyway.PorFavor wrote:Is everyone ignoring my question (above) about bringing back Theresa May's deal for a third time because I'm being unbelievably thick?
Go on - I can take it.
I said last night, but one thing that crisis management and chaos tend to produce is interesting and dangerous precedents for others to rely on in the future.
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
From the G:
Text of government motion
And even then the request may not be granted.
Text of government motion
If we are to have a further referendum, we need to show the EU our intent by a majority vote in parliament and request an extension by 20th March.Here is the text of the government
That this house: (1) notes the resolutions of the house of 12 and 13 March, and accordingly agrees that the government will seek to agree with the European Union an extension of the period specified in article 50(3);
(2) agrees that, if the house has passed a resolution approving the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship for the purposes of section 13(1) (b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 by 20 March 2019, then the government will seek to agree with the European Union a one-off extension of the period specified in article 50(3) for a period ending on 30 June 2019 for the purpose of passing the necessary EU exit legislation; and
(3) notes that, if the house has not passed a resolution approving the negotiated withdrawal agreement and the framework for the future relationship for the purposes of section 13(1)(b) of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018 by 20 March 2019, then it is highly likely that the European council at its meeting the following day would require a clear purpose for any extension, not least to determine its length, and that any extension beyond 30 June 2019 would require the United Kingdom to hold European Parliament elections in May 2019.
And even then the request may not be granted.
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
My above post was edited to add my first sentence. I thought I was going to get away with it . . .
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
You can serve them concurrently.
Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
If the EU will only grant an extension for a specific purpose, parliament is going to need to show a majority for that purpose, whatever it is, before the extension is requested and that needs to happen by next Wednesday at the very latest.RogerOThornhill wrote:Presumably the "wait and see" approach for a 2nd ref is that they need an agreed extension before moving it.
at the moment we're still leaving at the end of the month so supporting a 2nd ref is a bit pointless since there's no time for it to happen
So not much time left for "wait and see".
Everyone wants their ideal to go to a vote last so others, already disappointed, are the ones forced to compromise.
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Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Constance knitting a "Cats For Labour" jumper in anticipation.
Re: Thursday 14th March 2019
Edited (and swiftly, just for the record) to add -11m ago 14:00
Labour’s Ben Bradshaw says many Labour MPs will be tempted to vote for the Wollaston second referendum. He says, although Starmer is in favour, other senior people in the party give out different messages on this topic.
Starmer says he has always tried to speak with a clear voice on this. (Politics Live, Guardian - my emphasis)
PTO
Last edited by PorFavor on Thu 14 Mar, 2019 2:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.